Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KKEY 191841
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
241 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LOCALIZED NORTH OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN AND WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY AT THIS HOUR. THE
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST LEAVING PLENTY OF WANDERING
BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA. MIMIC DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
AGREEING WITH THE MORNING SOUNDING THAT WE ARE WELL ABOVE 100 PERCENT
OF NORMAL PWAT IN THE COLUMN. THIS PWAT IS BEING FOCUSED ALONG A
TROUGH WHICH STALLING NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. LATEST
SATELLITE INTERROGATION SHOWS A SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH
OF NEW ORLEANS...WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.

.FORECAST...
FORECAST THINKING IS THAT ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED
WELL...THE POP FORECAST IS UNREALISTIC. WE HAVE HAD DISCRETE CELLS
ACTIVE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE SOLAR INSULATION. THIS
LEADS TO THE CONCLUSION THAT THE MAIN FACTOR WILL BE DYNAMICAL. THE
SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS THE DRIVING FORCE IN
THE REGIME AND NOTING THAT THIS SHORT WAVE IS MOVING MORE SOUTHWARD
THAN EASTWARD WILL HAVE SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE ADDED LIFTING
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...60 PERCENT...OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A HIGH END
CHANCE FOR RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FRIDAY EXPECTING A RIDGE TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE EXITING TROUGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE
AMPLE MOISTURE AND MAINLY EAST FLOW. WINDS WILL SURGE A BIT TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CAUTION OR ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT THE WEAK PRESSURE FIELD TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH NO ADVISORY OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THE
TROUGH CREATING THE WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A WIND
SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT REMAINING UNDER
ADVISORY...AND LIKELY UNDER CAUTIONARY CRITERIA. EXPECT WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1963...4.23 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL IN KEY WEST ON SEPTEMBER 19TH...WHICH STANDS 51 YEARS LATER.
RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  78  85  79  89 / 60 50 50 50
MARATHON  78  86  79  90 / 60 50 50 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.