Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291600
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1100 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE KEYS...BUT MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER
IS FOUND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. A FEW OF THE MORE DENSE
CUMULUS CLOUD BANKS ARE SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ECHOS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL IF ANY OF THESE LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. THE SHARPEST LIGHT OF INCREASING CLOUD
COVER IS CURRENTLY MIGRATING WEST AND ITS LEADING EDGE REPRESENTS THE
FRONT EDGE OF A WIND SHIFT. MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN WITH MOIST
CONDITIONS UP TO 5KFT...THEN EXCESSIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE THAT
LEVEL. OVERALL PWAT VALUE WAS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AT 0.62 INCHES.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL STATIONS AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS...EXCEPT AT MOLASSES REEF WHICH IS ALREADY BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT NEAR 15 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND SHIFT IS SET TO OVERSPREAD THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY...THE
MAINLAND THERMAL TROUGH WILL DECREASE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND
DECREASE LOCAL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS ALL MARINE LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE
DISTANT STRAITS OF FLORIDA THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A TROPICAL
TRADE REGIME...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WITH
THIS EASTERLY WIND SHIFT... CLOUD COVER WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE...BUT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL COME UNDER A MORE
TROPICAL ADVECTIVE REGIME...AND THEREFORE WILL BE WARMER AND MORE
HUMID THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEYOND THE FIRST PERIOD...NO CHANGES
ARE REQUIRED IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS DECREASE ACROSS ALL
OF THE ATLANTIC AND DEEP GULF WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY.
RESIDUAL SEAS FROM THE OVERNIGHT WIND SURGE WILL SLOWLY RECEDED
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY ON THESE SAME DEEP
WATERS. A PRECIPITOUS DECLINE IN THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE MAINLAND THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS CROSS THE ISLANDS. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AS THIS OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD... VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST AT BOTH THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LULL TONIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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