Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 030231
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1031 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS
THE DIFFLUENT LEAF TO THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH`S AXIS...SPREADING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...CUBA...AND
THE BAHAMAS. AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH (SEE MIMIC VORTICITY
ANALYSIS) EXTENDS NORTH FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FEEDING OFF THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
THE EASTERLIES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOWERING PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...WELL PORTRAYED BY TPW LOOPS. THIS EVENING`S
RAOB ANALYSIS SAMPLED VERY DRY AIR UP TO 850 MB...CORROBORATED BY
ANOMALOUSLY LOW DEW POINTS AT THE AREA C-MANS...AT TIMES AS LOW AS 59
DEGREES F. THE FLORIDA KEYS LIE WITHIN A DIFFLUENT SADDLE POINT AT
THE SURFACE. THERE IS WEAK RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST AND A BROAD
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THUS...BECAUSE OF THE WEAK-DIFFLUENT
FLOW AND THE DRY AIR...THERE IS A LACK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WE
FEEL THIS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT. ALL AVAILABLE OPINIONS DEVELEP 10 TO
15 KNOTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...TAPPING INTO THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND RECHARGING THE PARCHED BOUNDARY LAYER. WE ADVERTISE A 90
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS A GOOD CONSENUS FROM THE
12Z NUMERICAL OUTPUT.

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. INCREASED PRECIPIATION COVERAGE AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR 10
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER...
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS IN THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY -RA ALONG WITH VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 06Z WITH WINDS 10KTS OR LESS. HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS
WILL CRATER TO MVFR LEVELS AROUND 06Z. THE WINDOW FOR HEAVIEST TSRA
APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND 16Z. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS...IFR
CEILINGS...AND VISIBILITIES OF 1-2SM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
STORMS. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
34/MM

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MM
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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