Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 030117
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY.
WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS VERY
UNSTABLE AND SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT)
VALUE JUST UNDER ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE MONDAY...PWAT
VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WHICH
IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST. THERE IS ADEQUATE
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE
KEPT ABOVE ALL NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES WILL TURN TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS.
LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL VEER TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
IS 84 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
SHOULD NOT BELOW 84 DEGREES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WOULD TIE THE
DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN KEY
WEST ON AUGUST 2ND. THE CURRENT RECORD OF 84 DEGREES WAS ESTABLISHED
IN 2010. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................DEVANAS
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

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