Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 240824
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
424 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Under partly cloudy skies and a steady, albeit light southeast
flow, temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s along the Florida
Keys. Meanwhile, local radars are detecting only isolated showers
migrating northwestward through our county warning area. Surface
wise, a broad ridge covers the Florida peninsula and the adjacent
Gulf and Atlantic waters. Winds are southeast at 10 to 15 knots on
the Straits of Florida with near 10 knots elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
A persistent western Atlantic ridge will hold firm from the
southern half of the Sunshine State southward, as a couple of
low level undulations accompanied by a slight increase in
moisture move through our area. Given little in the way of
convective inhibition, rain chances will vary between 20 and
40 percent through the period. Enough intense insolation will
allow high temperatures to average in the lower 90s with overnight
lows between 80 and 85 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
A deep layered subtropical ridge axis (below 500 mb) will remain
from the southern half of the Florida peninsula southward through
the period. With the location of the ridge axis, our area will be
subjected to pockets of higher moisture within a weak flow.
Without any significant large scale subsidence, mesoscale forcing
in the form of wet cloud line genesis and outflow boundaries
emanating off the surrounding land masses will prompt low chance
pops which are near climo. Plenty of blazing insolation will
allow high temperatures to climb into the lower 90s with overnight
lows in the lower 80s.


&&

.MARINE...
Away from any showers, thunderstorms or outflow boundaries, winds
will range from gentle to moderate with the higher winds on the
Straits of Florida and the waters in and around Dry Tortugas.

&&

.AVIATION...
Today,VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the Key West and
Marathon terminals. East to southeast winds are expected to remain
less than 10 knots outside of any showers through the TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1921, the daily record low temperature of 70 degrees was
recorded. Temperature records have been kept since 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  90  83  91  83 / 30 30 30 30
Marathon  92  83  92  83 / 30 30 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...APA
Aviation/Nowcasts....Futterman


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