Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 181956
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
256 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Currently - High pressure spreading southeastwards across the
extreme southeastern United States. For the time being, winds
remain moderate to fresh out of the north to northeast. This is
maintaining a cool flow across the Florida Keys, and temperatures
continue to only slowly glide upwards through the upper 50s, with
dew point temperatures lingering near 40 degrees. Skies are sunny,
with just a few patches of high cirrus.

Forecast - The previously mentioned high will continue to spread
southeastwards tonight. Expect winds remain backed north to
northeast as a early morning nocturnal surge should develop.
Before this surge, winds will lull a bit late this afternoon and
evening. Overnight lows will be in the lower 50s, with some places
nearer South Florida closer to 50. Winds will finally turn more
northeast on Friday and trend downwards. Dry stable conditions
will keep rain chances out of the forecast.

The high pressure system will continue to expand eastwards through
the weekend. Consequently winds will gradually shift more easterly
and oscillate between gentle and moderate breezes. Expect
temperatures and moisture to edge upwards towards nearer values
through the weekend. Rain chances will creep upwards through the
weekend as the lower level ridge slips east of our area and
increased lower level moisture increases and inhibition weakens.
The jet entrance region in the subtropical jet will also be
passing east near our area providing some support. Thereafter,
the impulse aloft will be to our east and weak lower level
ridging builds back nearer the area.

Through the first half of the upcoming week, surface ridging will
remain to our north maintaining gentle to moderate easterly flow.
Inhibition is expected to be weak. Temperatures will edge up above
normal with dew points moving above 70. This will provide ample
moisture for at least isolated showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to spread southeastwards across the
extreme southeastern United States tonight. Moderate to fresh
north to northeast breezes will continue to relax late this
afternoon into evening. However, a still very cool flow will
likely stay backed north to northeast overnight and surge during
the predawn hours. After sunrise on Friday, winds are expected to
veer more northeast then east northeast while quickly relaxing to
a gentle to moderate northeast to east breeze. Cautions may be
retained for portions

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at the islands terminals tonight.
Surface winds will be out of the north to northeast at 10 to 15
knots and gusty this evening. Winds are expected to lull late this
evening, but surge again in the predawn hours.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     GMZ032>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Collection......CLR

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