Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 051840
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
200 PM CONTINUED TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE...WITH DEEP MID
AND UPPER RIDGING WELL ESTABLISHED NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HI
PLAINS FROM DEEP WARM CORE RIDGING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OLD
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM OF THAT...TROUGHING PREVAILS OF COURSE...WITH
UPPER LOWS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
LOCALLY...A WARM CORE RIDGE NOSES FROM THE CARIBBEAN UP TO EAST OF
FLORIDA. SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS ARE BENEATH THE NOSE OF DEEP
WARM RIDGING.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...MAIN...AS OF 200 PM...NEAR 1020 MB SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. A
DRY LOW LEVEL...SURFACE TO 850 MB TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED
FROM THE EAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...THE KEYS...THE BAHAMAS...THE
NORTHERN GREATER CARIBBEAN...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS. TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED NEAR 90
DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. C-MAN STATIONS STATIONS ARE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.

.FORECASTS...A CONTINUATION OF AN ABNORMALLY DRY PATTERN FOR EARLY
JULY...WITH LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DEEPER CONCENTRATION OF DUST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SAL(SAHARAN AIR
LAYER). EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S
AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. COMBINATION OF
ATLANTIC RIDGING ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH WEAK DRY LOW LEVEL
TROUGHS/WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATE BREEZES...PEAKING AND LULLING AT TIMES THRU THE WEEK.

THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO TAME THE HUMIDITY GIVEN DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE HIGH 70S. GIVEN THE DRY PROFILE IN THE IMMEDIATE TWO PERIODS
INDICATED IN THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY TOOK OUT RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE GULF...FLORIDA BAY AND HAWK
CHANNEL WATERS TONIGHT...WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
DURING MONDAY. STILL HAVE ONLY A 10 PERCENT POP IN THE GRIDS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AND GIVEN THE EXPANSE OF THE UPSTREAM
SAL...BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS DRY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...20%... FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK/WEAKEN.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...MAINLY THE OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE SCEC REMAINING IN PLACE DURING TOMORROW. DONT
FORESEE ANY HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE WATERS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  91  83  90 / -  10 10 10
MARATHON  84  90  82  90 / -  10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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