Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 011915
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
315 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH MULTIPLE SURFACE WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED
FROM WRN PA SEWD TO THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS TO THE NC/VA BORDER.
T-STORMS DEVELOPING OVER OH/KY ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD
AROUND 30 KTS AND MAKE IT INTO THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING.
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS THEY CROSS THE APPALACHIANS
BUT SOME COULD REMAIN STRONG AS THEY CROSS THE MTNS WHERE SBCAPE
VALUES ARE IN THE 250-500 J/KG RANGE. SHOWERS EXPECTED EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE ATMS MUCH MORE STABLE. OVERNIGHT...WE`LL SEE LOW
AND MID LEVELS (850-500 MB LAYER) DRY OUT AND SUBSIDENCE WITH
AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP DUE TO WET GROUND AND LIGHT
WINDS. MORNING FOG WILL GRADUALLY ERODE MON MORNING WITH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE 70S AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO PA. SOME DESTABILIZATION
IS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS EXPECTED. BEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN HALF
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE CDFNT WILL NOT CLEAR THOSE AREAS
UNTIL EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES MON
NIGHT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF 700-500 MB WAVE. MULTIPLE SFC
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT ALONG SLOW MOVING
BDRY TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MDT PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STUBBORN FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED OVER THE AREA.

A LARGE/COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA STRAIGHT SOUTH TO
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY...THEN SLOWLY PIVOT OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
MODELS ARE MODEST WITH INSTABILITY IN SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME BUT
COULD SEE AN INCREASING TREND GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT IF FLOW TAKES
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/WARM COMPONENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THIS UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN BUILDING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LEADING TO A STRONG
WARMING TREND BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR NOW
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE T-STORMS MOVE THROUGH. AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH LIFR AND VLIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. SCT T-STORMS EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MDT RAIN MON NIGHT.

SUB-VFR PSBL TUE-WED IN ANY LWR CIGS/SHWRS W/ FRONT STALLED
NEARBY. WINDS GENERALLY ELY 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SCA BUT GUSTY NEAR T-STORMS
ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON MIDDLE AND LOWER PORTIONS OF POTOMAC AND
CHES BAY.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS WITH A
FRONT STALLED NEARBY...LEADING TO GUSTS THAT SHOULD STAY LARGELY
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...LFR/DFH
MARINE...LFR/DFH



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