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000
FXUS61 KLWX 081951
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...SCA ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW.

A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC TROUGH HAS
DEVELOPED PARALLEL AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED FROM THIS MORNING WITH FULL SUN ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. PETERSBURG WV REACHED 72 DEGREES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS NOVA AND THE METROS THIS AFTERNOON. SW-W FLOW HAS LED TO
DOWNSLOPING AND MIXING TO 750MB HAS RESULTED IN TEMPS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S AND 60S THIS AFTERNOON. THE NRN PIEDMONT IS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME PLACES IN THIS AREA REACH
70 DEG THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT AND
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE QPF MOVING ACROSS NE MD-DC
METRO AND THEN OFF THE COAST KEEPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE DRY WITH THE EXCPETION OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT. NW FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THIS ENHANCEMENT WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING. LESS THAN AN INCH IS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT. CLEARING BEHIND
THE SHOWERS WILL ALLOW NRN MD TO DROP INTO THE LOW 30S BEFORE
SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. GUSTY
NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS REACH THE MID 40S IN NRN MD TO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND OFF THE COAST NEAR THE OUTER BANKS BY MONDAY
MORNING. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THE ONLY AFFECT HERE IS LIKELY TO BE MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER ACROSS NORTHERN VA AND MD.  LESS CLOUD COVER FURTHER SOUTH
WILL PROMOTE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND THE END RESULT IS A
FAIRLY UNIFORM LOW TEMPERATURE PROFILE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER IN URBAN BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE REGION WILL BE IN A RETURN FLOW REGIME AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NRN MD TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THE FRONT ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO
BE MOSTLY DRY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WARM
ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THIS
AREA ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BE LIQUID.
OTHERWISE ONLY AFFECT FROM THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUD
COVER AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. IN SPITE OF CLOUD
COVER...WIND SHIFT WILL SUPPORT DOWNSLOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD
KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN LIKELY. BY EVENING...COLDER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE LOW DEEPENS ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION...ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION MAY END AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AT THE MOMENT APPEARS TO BE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR...GENERALLY IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE STORM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S /ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/. CLEARING
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE AIRMASS QUICKLY MODIFIES
AND TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NW. -RA IS POSSIBLE FOR BWI-MTN-DCA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 2-3K FEET
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS AROUND 5KT.
MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS 5-10KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. POSSIBLE FOG LATE. WINDS W-SW 5KT.
TUESDAY...FOG POSSIBLE EARLY. OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS W-NW 5-8KT.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
A BRIEF MIX WITH OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING...MAINLY FOR TERMINALS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE
DC/BALTIMORE METRO. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS HAVE FORMED ON THE BAY DUE TO AMPLE MIXING. A SCA IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
LIGHT SW-W WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF TOMORROW
FOR THE ENTIRE TIDAL POTOMAC AND BAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. GENERALLY SW
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT 10KT OR LESS...BECOMING W-NW
TUESDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REGIME
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE LOW...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH
SCA WINDS LIKELY ON ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HAS/KS/DFH
MARINE...HAS/KS/DFH