Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 271858
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
258 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain over the area through early Sunday.
Weak Low pressure may affect the region Memorial Day through
Tuesday. Weak high pressure builds for the middle and latter part of
next week. A cold front may push through the region at the end of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...Scattered showers or t-storms
expected through early evening in very warm and moist environment
with activity dissipating by 01Z or 02Z. Patchy light fog or haze
overnight into Sat morning. Guidance shows significant height
rises over the region tonight through Sat which should greatly
inhibit t-storm coverage Sat but a few pop-up showers still
possible mainly northwest part of fcst area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...Ridge along
the mid-Atlc coast will start shifting east Sat night as tropical
disturbance/tropical storm makes landfall on the SC coast.
Deep moisture will advect rapidly northward early on Sun as deep
layered SSE flow establishes across the mid-Atlc. Showers appear
likely Sun through the first half of Memorial Day. Widespread
clouds should keep temps down. Could be some heavy rains over srn
MD as tropical remnants track across ern NC and sern VA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Cold front approaches from
the northwest on Monday as a low pressure system slowly tracks
north- northeast along the coast. Surface high pressure briefly
builds on Tuesday before cold front moves across the area later
that day. The front stalls over the Delmarva Peninsula on
Wednesday... near our area. The front then lifts north as a warm
front on Thursday with another cold front moving across our CWA on
Friday.

There is disagreement on the guidance as timing and location of
these systems... so keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms for
most of our CWA during this period. High temperatures will be
around the 80s and lows around the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Sct t-storms possible
between 22z-02z at all terminals. Patchy light fog or haze
overnight. Isolated t-storms possible Sat mainly at KMRB. Deeper
moisture spreads northward Sun on deep layered SSE flow as
tropical disturbance makes landfall on the SC coast.

VFR conditions expected during this period. Chance of showers
each day may produce sub-VFR conditions to the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...Brought SCA conditions sooner to the lower bay as winds
are gusting to 21 knots. Model trends show winds diminishing after
06z tonight.

Sub-SCA conditions expected during this period as winds will be
below SCA criteria.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ533-534-
     537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...IMR/LFR
MARINE...IMR/LFR


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