Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 071136 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
635 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY PATCHY
MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WITH SOME FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
OVER CENTRAL AREAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN INITIALLY OVER
NORTHERN AR AND USED VCSH...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE SEEN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SE TO
SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN AR
TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF MVFR. THE
CONVECTION WILL TAKE LONGER TO REACH CENTRAL AREAS LATER IN THE DAY.
(59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SERN KS INTO CENTRAL MO. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT HAS DISSIPATED OVER
TIME...BUT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WAS DEVELOPING
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN AR.

THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE STATE THIS
MORNING...EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER THIS EVENING.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THIS FRONT BY THIS TIME...AND
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA COULD BE SEEN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN JUST NW OF
THE CWA. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT DROPPING A BIT FURTHER SE THEN
EARLIER THOUGHT...AND WITH THE HELP OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DROPPING
EVEN FURTHER SE...THINK ENOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN IN THE NWRN
COUNTIES TO WARRANT POSTING A SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED POPS FURTHER SE...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE MORE LIMITED.

WHILE HIGHEST QPF VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM
NEWTON TO BAXTER COUNTIES AND HIGHER AMOUNTS NW...SOME OF THESE
AREAS HAVE SEEN FLASH FLOODING IN RECENT DAYS. AS A RESULT...IT MAY
NOT TAKE AS MUCH HEAVY RAINFALL TO GENERATE SOME FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TERRAIN. AS ALWAYS...LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS COULD BE SEEN.

CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WED...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NRN COUNTIES. BY THU...CHANCES WILL BEGIN DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS NORTH...AND SRLY FLOW INCREASES. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO EXPAND OVER THE THE REGION LATE IN THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL ALSO BE HIGH...AND PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 100 BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN OVERALL DRY AND WARM TO HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE DOMINATE OVER THE REGION...WITH VERY LOW
CHANCES OF RAIN...AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAT OF
THE DAY TO EARLY EVENING...BUT CHANCE WILL BE VERY LOW AND WILL NOT
BE INCLUDED IN FORECAST. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...
THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS WEST...AND AN UPPER NW FLOW
RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL REGION. ON TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
DO SHOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND A POSSIBLE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGGING SE
TO SOUTHERN MO TO NEAR NORTHERN AR...AND FORECAST DOES HAVE A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN AR. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES WILL START AT NORMAL VALUES THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  73  87  74 /  50  50  30  20
CAMDEN AR         92  76  93  74 /  10  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       79  69  81  69 /  70  70  50  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    89  75  89  74 /  30  40  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  75  90  74 /  20  40  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  92  76 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      88  74  87  73 /  40  50  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  81  69  83  71 /  70  60  50  30
NEWPORT AR        89  73  88  73 /  40  40  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     91  75  91  74 /  10  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  73  87  72 /  50  60  30  20
SEARCY AR         89  73  89  73 /  30  40  20  20
STUTTGART AR      90  73  90  72 /  20  30  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59








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