Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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990
FXUS64 KLZK 260552 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1250 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.AVIATION...

Overall VFR flight conditions are expected. Toward sunrise patchy
areas of MVFR may be seen but too isolated to include in Tafs. An
isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible, but due to
uncertainty will not include in Tafs. Winds will be light and
variable or light from the east overnight. On Tuesday, additional
convection will be possible in the afternoon to evening due to
additional heating. Winds will become east to southeast at 5 to 10
mph. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 248 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday

Data from local radars continue to indicate southward progression
of convection...affecting mainly west central portions of the
forecast area. This activity has formed in a highly
unstable...weakly sheared...and very moist atmosphere. This
activity is expected to have a pronounced diurnal component.
However...a stationary boundary across southern Missouri will
still be able to provide at least weak forcing for additional
convective development overnight.

The boundary is expected to remaining stationary during the rest
of this period. Along with strong instability...conditions will
remain favorable for several rounds of additional convective
development.

Near normal temperatures are expected during this period.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday

The early part of the extended forecast will be dominated by a bit
of a trough aloft...as ridging sets up on both the east and west
coasts. This upper level weakness, coupled with a weak quasi-
stationary frontal boundary in the vicinity of northern AR, will
make for lower max temps and increased chances for precipitation.

On Thursday many locations across the state will struggle to make
90, and POPs look fairly good in the 50-60 pct range.

Ridging will start building again by Sunday, and max temps will
start to climb significantly again, with POPs dropping back down to
climo averages.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...62



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