Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 272040
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
240 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday Night
Data from local radars indicate scattered convection affecting
southern sections of the forecast area. Additional storms were
noted across northeast Texas and northwest Louisiana. This
activity was located to tne north of a warm front, which will be
moving north overnight. Some addtional activity will be possible
overnight, as a low level jet increases across an increasing
unstable atmosphere.

Forecast concern will be timing, and magnitude of severe
convection to affect the forecast area late Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Forecast soundings for Tuesday afternoon and evening are
quite supportive of supercell development. The question will be if
limited large scale forcing can support discrete celluar
development. An approaching cold front will support QLCS
development, which will sweep from west to east by early
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Monday
Lingering cool air expected across the area Friday into portions of
Saturday as surface high pressure lingers across the region Friday
before making a slow eastward shift on Saturday. Expect temperatures
to start out seasonal with a slow warming trend taking place.

Aloft, 500mb flow will be mostly zonal with no systems approaching
the state until the Sunday/Monday timeframe. That is when the flow
shifts more southwesterly and a few weak impulses appear to the west
of the state. Some rain chances will be seen Sun/Mon as low pressure
develops in the Plains and a cold front slowly approaches the state.
Decent surface pressure gradient could lead to some stronger
southwesterly winds at the end of the period. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     59  76  58  63 /  40  50  60  30
Camden AR         63  81  61  70 /  30  50  60  30
Harrison AR       57  74  49  57 /  40  50  60  20
Hot Springs AR    61  76  56  66 /  30  50  60  20
Little Rock   AR  61  78  60  68 /  30  50  60  30
Monticello AR     64  81  65  72 /  30  40  50  50
Mount Ida AR      62  75  57  63 /  30  50  60  20
Mountain Home AR  57  75  53  60 /  40  50  60  20
Newport AR        59  76  58  64 /  40  60  70  30
Pine Bluff AR     62  80  62  70 /  30  50  60  40
Russellville AR   59  76  56  65 /  30  50  60  20
Searcy AR         59  77  58  68 /  40  50  60  30
Stuttgart AR      61  79  61  69 /  30  50  60  40
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...55 / Long Term...51


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