Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 260928
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
428 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night
Ok, so...here we are again. There`s really nothing that I can tell
you that you don`t already know. But, then again, if you`re just
joining us, you may be lost. So, here we go...

Early this morning, analysis places a stalled frontal boundary
from western Missouri, extending down into the northwestern Red
River Valley of Texas and Oklahoma. Aloft, ridging is centered in
the vicinity of the Arkansas/Oklahoma and Texas/Louisiana border,
impeding the surface boundary`s progress.

Over the next 24 hours, the ridge will broaden out and flatten a
bit, which will allow the front to pick up momentum and move into
Arkansas. The cooler air will lag the front. Any precipitation
associated with the front will be isolated/widely scattered in
nature and primarily post-frontal. At any rate, once the cooler
air begins to move in on Wednesday afternoon, temperatures may
actually fall a few degrees in the afternoon over northern
Arkansas.

And, again, at the risk of sounding like a broken record...fog
will be possible in places, scattering out in the hour or two
after sunrise as the gradient increases.
&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday
Generally good agreement among operational and ensemble guidance to
start the period with an upper ridge building across the southern
US. Progressive troughiness remains well north across the Great
Lakes with a large cutoff low near the Four Corners region. As with
the previous forecast, the operational ECMWF and GFS both continue
building a large ridge through much of the central US, with the
ridge axis nearly overhead late Fri into Sat. This will almost
ensure a continued spell of dry weather locally, so keeping PoPs
more or less nil through almost the entire period, save for a token
15 percent along the OK/AR border Thurs afternoon as deeper moisture
continues waning. Some good news: high temps aren`t expected to warm
as significantly through the week with H850 temps only reaching the
mid teens. Winds will remain slightly elevated in the afternoons as
well, so wildfire danger will continue to increase with low RH
values and only minimal recovery expected. See Fire Weather
discussion for additional details.

What remains to be seen is how progressive the large upper ridge
will eventually be. The Four Corners low is progged to phase with an
incoming Western US trough late week as the longwave pattern quickly
amplifies, but the degree of uncertainty rapidly increases through
the latter half of the period. Operational models have been
underperforming and GFS ensemble solution is exhibiting very high
uncertainty with the upstream trough. Thinking is the ridge may
begin to de-amplify over the weekend in response to the overall
longwave pattern evolution, but not enough to introduce
significant changes attm. Dry is the word.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moderate fire danger with burn bans in effect for a cluster of
counties in central/north-central AR as of this morning. Conditions
are not expected to improve significantly through the forecast
period. In the wake of a predominantly dry front, winds will
become north to northeasterly and could gust in higher terrain as
well as in the MS River Delta. No significant rainfall is expected
for the next seven days. Additionally, minimum RH values will
continue to fall through the week as a much drier air mass filters
in and will drop to the low-to-mid 30s area wide by the weekend.
Fire danger will continue to rapidly increase. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     89  67  84  60 /  10  10  20  10
Camden AR         90  69  91  67 /  10  10  20  20
Harrison AR       86  64  76  57 /  20  20  30  10
Hot Springs AR    89  69  88  66 /  10  10  30  20
Little Rock   AR  90  70  89  67 /  10  10  20  20
Monticello AR     90  70  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
Mount Ida AR      88  66  86  65 /  10  10  30  20
Mountain Home AR  88  66  81  57 /  10  10  30  10
Newport AR        90  68  86  61 /  10  10  20  10
Pine Bluff AR     90  69  89  67 /  10  10  20  10
Russellville AR   89  69  87  63 /  10  10  30  20
Searcy AR         90  67  88  64 /  10  10  20  20
Stuttgart AR      90  69  88  65 /  10  10  20  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...57 / Long Term...Cooper


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