Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 030008
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
808 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THEN
STALL AND SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...LOWERED POPS TO 20% NEXT FEW HOURS AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WANED OVER AREA AND LATEST MESO MODELS
INDICATE ADDTIONAL ACTIVITY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT...THUS NO CHANGE TO HIGHER POPS LATE. ADJUSTED TEMP
TRENDS FOR OBS ALREADY IN LOW-MID 70S. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO E-NE
ACROSS MOST OF NE PART OF AREA BUT MAINLY DUE TO CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND FRONTAL BNDRY HOLDING OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WITH HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRING INLAND MAINLY ALONG HIGHWAY 17 EARLY THIS AFTN. DECENT
CVRG WILL CONT INTO THE EVENING INLAND WITH MOST BEACHES STAYING
RATHER DRY AS SEA BRZ CONTS JUST INLAND. LATER TONIGHT SOME OF THE
MDLS SHOW ACTIVITY PICKING UP ALONG CST ESPCLY SRN TIER AS COLD
FRONT SAGS SE INTO THE AREA. HAVE LIKELY POPS INLAND TO SLIGHT CHC
BEACHES INTO EVENING THEN HAVE POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY CNTRL AND
SRN CST LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 65 DEEP INLAND BEHIND WEAK
FRONT TO LOWER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS EXPECTED AGAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH FRONT STALLED JUST INLAND AND UPR LOW JUST TO THE
W. ATMS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH PRECIP WTR VALUES 1.5 TO 2
INCHES. MUCH LIKE TODAY ACTVTY WILL TEND TO INCREASE OVER INLAND
AREAS LATE MORN THRU AFTN WITH HEATING. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND FRONT
OVER AREA WILL LEAD TO LOWER HIHGS WITH UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST
SPOTS. THE LOWER TEMPS WILL LEAD TO LESS INSTAB AND SHLD LIMIT
SEVERE THREAT ESPCLY INLAND BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD
LOOKS COMPLEX WITH A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING EASTERN
NC THROUGH FRIDAY. VORTICITY ROUNDING THE LOW WILL PROVIDE PLENTY
OF LIFT WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE. IN ADDITION...A WEAK STALLED FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN NC WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF AN AXIS FOR LIFT CLOSER TO
THE SFC. AND TO ADD ONE MORE ELEMENT...THE TYPICAL SEA
BREEZE/DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALSO AID IN PRECIPITATION FORMATION
GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THURSDAY. BRIEF REPRIEVE IN
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME CONVECTION. A FRONT WILL APPROACH
TUESDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: ANTICIPATE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ALBEIT A
BIT LESS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. AS THE
MID/UPPER LOW EDGES CLOSER TO EASTERN NC...VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE
TO HELP INSTIGATE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...HAIL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. WITH A WARM SEASON CAD
EVENT IN PLACE....HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE SOUTH AND
RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NC...TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CLIMO...AROUND 80.

FRIDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NC FRIDAY
WITH WEAK SFC FLOW/HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND A SFC LOW FURTHER
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL YIELD NORTHERLY FLOW AND A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE.
THEREFORE EXPECTING LESS PRECIP COVERAGE OVERALL. STILL ANTICIPATE
SOME SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE/DIURNAL CONVECTIVE INTERACTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT JUST BELOW CLIMO...LOW
80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE OBX.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST YET
AGAIN NOSING INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL ACT AS AN AXIS OF WHICH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY FURTHER INLAND WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. GIVEN THE UPPER LOW HAS EXITED...THIS MAY LIMIT
MUCH MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION...MEANING THE OVERALL
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z
EURO IS PRODUCING A MUCH WEAKER SFC PATTERN AS COMPARED TO THE 12Z
GFS. IF THE EURO SOLUTION IS CORRECT...EVEN LESS PRECIP COVERAGE
CAN BE EXPECTED. WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE
GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TRANSPORT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TOWARD NC
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AT THE SFC AND AN APPROACHING FRONT... AN INCREASE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THU/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WANED EARLY THIS
EVENING AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR MOST OF EVENING. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 03Z-06Z WITH FRONT SAGGING INTO AREA...LEADING
TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING 06Z-09Z NRN SIDE OF FRONT AT KPGV AND KISO
WITH MVFR ON WARM SIDE AT KEWN AND KOAJ. LATEST GDNC IS INDICATING
IFR SRN TAFS AS WELL...THUS A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST AND DID LOWER
CIGS KEWN AND KOAJ TO 1K FT. SHOWER AND TSTM ACITIVITY EXPECTED TO
AFFECT TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY ON WED WITH FRONT STALLED OVER
AREA AND UPR LOW APPROACHING FROM W...AND GDNC INDICATING MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...GIVEN THE ACTIVE PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE
LONG TERM...WE ARE EXPECTING IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENINGS. WITH THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT
BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH CIGS/VSBYS. COVERAGE IN
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO LOWER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...ADJUSTED FCST FOR CURRENT VARIABLE WINDS
OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
LATEST MESO MODELS SUPPORT MORE NE-E WINDS THOSE AREAS OVERNIGHT
WITH FRONT SAGGING IN.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT MOSTLY SSW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE LATE
TONIGHT AND WED WITH FRONT OVER THE REGION AND PRES GRDNT QUITE
LOOSE. WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT EXPECT SEAS TO CONT IN THE 2 TO
3 FOOT RANGE THRU THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WITH NO
LARGE SYSTEMS OR FRONTS DURING THE PERIOD TO IMPACT WINDS AND
SEAS. WITH THIS BEING SAID...WE ARE FORECASTING AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MUCH OF WHICH WILL BE FURTHER
INLAND. BUT THIS IS AT LEAST WORTH NOTING THE ACTIVE PATTERN IN
PLACE. MEANDERING LIGHT SOUTHERLY/EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS TO BE BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AND SEAS
2-3 FT WITH 4 FT FURTHER OUT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF/JBM
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...JBM/LEP
MARINE...RF/JBM/LEP


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