Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 212330
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
730 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM TUESDAY...MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO POP...SKY
COVER...AND TEMPS TO CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS. DRY DOWN SLOPE FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO USHER YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
SCALED BACK POPS A BIT ACROSS THE AREA LOOKING AT LATEST GUIDANCE
AND GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE CURRENT AIRMASS...LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLOW AND PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW. WENT NO
HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE ANYWHERE IN THE CWA AND ANY BRIEF PASSING
SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND
LIGHT.  MORE CONFIDENT THAT HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS WILL OCCUR AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT OVER
THE AREA TO REFLECT THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OBSERVED
JUST TO OUR WEST THAT SHOULD PROGRESS INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S INLAND TO
THE UPPER 50S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS THAT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON EASTERN ZONES AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT AGAIN WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH
WIDESPREAD SELF DESTRUCT STRATOCUMULUS WITH ANY INSOLATION AND
COLD POOL ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MED RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FCST THINKING. THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WED NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGES DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS 30-35 MPH FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY THE NORTHERN
OBX COULD SEE SCT RAIN SHOWERS WED EVENING DUE TO MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT
WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN PLACE. ENS QPF FIELDS AMONGST NAEFS/SREF
INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.

THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN THUR AND
SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A NON-
EVENTFUL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...ONLY A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOWER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...EXPECTING A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
CLIMO BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HAVE HEDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS
MORE IN LINE WITH ECM ENSMOS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WED/...
AS OF 730PM TUESDAY...A DEEP TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TONIGHT HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTWARD BY EARLY MORNING.
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH
GUSTY NW FLOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS
THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FG OR BR IN LOW
SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE...JUST
MINOR TWEAKS IN THE WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PROGRESSING FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACCOMPANYING A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING WILL LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
WESTERLY WINDS TO 15 KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO NW AROUND
20 KT LATE THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT WEDNESDAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HEADLINES EXCEPT TO EXTEND
THE ENDING TIME OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS THROUGH FRI MORNING. A
TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS. COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND EASTERN SOUNDS WED EVENING THOUGH NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON DURATION OR EXTENT TO UPGRADE HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL DRY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN
A LITTLE HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST
NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RSB/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RSB/TL
MARINE...RSB/JME/TL






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