Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 270020
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
720 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore Monday and remain over the
Western Atlantic through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the
region Thursday morning. High pressure will build in behind the
front through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 7 PM Sun...Early evening update mainly captures T/Td
trends. High pressure will crest over the area tonight.
Excellent radiational cooling conditions expected overnight with
clr skies and calm winds. Temps are dropping quickly this
evening with loss of insolation, and expect lows bottoming out
28-32 away from the beaches. Given the above normal temps the
past few weeks, the "growing season" has likely begun earlier
than normal. Sensitive vegetation could be vulnerable to the
freezing conditions. Some cirrus may begin to stream through
late as high shifts eastward and shortwave approaches from the
west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sun...High will be settled offshore on Monday
allowing for WAA regime. Temps will climb into the 65-70 degree
range for highs with 60-65 on the OBX. Increasing convergence on
the coast expected as winds remain NE on Pamlico sound but veer
to SE over the coastal waters. This will promote some iso/sct
shower development along the coastal counties with best chances
along the OBX. Have added 20-30 pops to account for this. Once
away from the coast TD`s drop dramatically so not expecting any
precip across the interior. Otherwise, increasing mid and high
clouds expected through the day Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM Sunday...Warm but unsettled weather is expected
across the region through early Thursday followed by a period of
dry and seasonably cool weather Friday and Saturday and dry and
warmer conditions next Sunday. The models continue to have
differences and lack of run to run consistency for the Monday
night through Tuesday night period making for a low confidence
forecast regarding precipitation chances and amounts. There is
much higher confidence that temperatures will be above normal
through Wednesday.

Monday night through Tuesday night...A warm front like feature
will move north across the area Monday in response to high
pressure shifting off of the coast with southerly flow then
becoming established across the area through mid week. This
will result in warm temperatures with lows in the 50s Monday
night, highs in the 70s Tuesday and lows in the 60s Tuesday
night. The precipitation forecast is more problematic though as
guidance has not yet arrived on a consensus on timing, location
and amounts of precipitation during this period. Thus best
course of action was to broadbrush 20% PoPs and forecast very
light QPF amounts until guidance arrives at a better resolution.

Wednesday...Guidance is good agreement that record warmth will
be possible with highs in the 80s as brisk southerly flow
prevails. Not expecting any significant precipitation although
an isolated shower can`t be ruled out. Some fire weather
concerns due to the warmth and expected strong winds but
forecast relative humidities are in the mid 50s which is well
above Red Flag criteria.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...A strong cold front
will move across the region late Wednesday night or Thursday
morning. The CMC was a compromise between the faster GFS and
slower ECMWF models and will place the front along the coast
around 12Z Thursday. This would bring the best chance of rain to
the area Wednesday night with drying and slightly cooler
conditions expected Thursday afternoon. Mild lows in the 50s are
expected Wednesday night and continued mild but cooler Thursday
with highs in the mid 60s. Colder air begins to be felt
Thursday night with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Friday through Sunday...The models are actually in better
agreement during this period then in the early portion of the
medium range forecast. A dry secondary cold cold front will
cross the area Friday with highs 55 to 60 expected then high
pressure with seasonably cool and dry air will prevail across
the region through Saturday night. Low temperatures Friday
night are forecast to reach the lower to mid 30s and this could
be a concern for any sensitive vegetation that may have
prematurely started due to the abnormal warmth of the past
couple of weeks. Highs Saturday will be in the 50s. and lows
Sunday night in the mid to upper 30s. Dry weather is forecast to
continue Sunday but with some moderation in temperatures into
the 60s as the high center moves offshore and return SW flow
redevelops across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short term /through 18Z Monday/...
As of 7 PM Sunday...High confidence in VFR conditions
prevailing through the period. Mostly clear skies expected
tonight, with increasing high clouds Monday morning and a mid
cloud deck moving in during the afternoon. May see some STCU
move in from the coastal waters during the afternoon as well but
expect cigs above 3000 ft and mainly confined near the coast.
Dry boundary layer will inhibit fog development tonight, despite
surface winds decoupling to calm for several hours overnight.
The surface ridge will shift off the Delmarva Peninsula on
Monday, allowing winds to become southeast for most of the day.

Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 245 PM Sun...Due to uncertainties regarding the
precipitation forecast, the aviation medium range outlook is a
low confidence forecast through Tuesday night although periods
of sub VFR conditions are possible especially in showers. The
next best chance of rain and sub VFR conditions will occur
Wednesday night as a cold front moves through the area. VFR
conditions are expected from Thursday afternoon through Friday
as high pressure builds into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Monday/...
As of 3 PM Sun...High pressure will crest over the waters
tonight, with W/NW winds becoming variable S-NE 10 kt or less
overnight with seas 2-4 feet. High will shift offshore on Monday
with weak coastal trough developing. Winds remain NE most of the
day across the Pamlico sound though veer SE across the outer
waters in vcnty of the Gulf Stream. This will promote sct
showers by late morning through afternoon across the waters and
Pamlico Sound. Seas will remain in the 2-4 foot range though the
day Mon with winds 5-15 kt.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 245 PM Sun...Rough marine conditions with gusty winds and
elevated seas are expected for much of the period. Moderate
SE/S flow of 15 to 20 kt is expected through Tuesday. There is
some potential for seas to reach 6 ft late Tuesday but the wave
models were consistent in indicating 3-5 ft seas. The southerly
winds increase to 20 to 25 kt Tuesday night and 25 to 30 kt
/with a low end Gale possible/ Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday
night with seas of 7 to 11 ft. Winds shift to NW 15 to 20 kt
behind the front Thursday morning and diminish to W/NW 10 to 15
kt Thu afternoon and night behind the initial cold front. A
secondary cold front is forecast to cross the waters Friday
afternoon with the flow becoming NW and increasing to 20 to 25
kt. Seas will briefly subside below 6 ft Thursday night then
build back to 4 to 7 ft Friday afternoon.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...SK/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME/EH
AVIATION...DAG/JME/SK
MARINE...JME/TL


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