Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 270737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
337 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
today. A cold front will move through Wednesday morning. A warm
front will move through from the southwest Friday. A cold front
will move through early Saturday.


As of 230 AM Monday...A mid-level shortwave trough lifts out
this morning with weak ridging building in from the south
through the day. Will continue slight chc PoPs well inland this
afternoon as a couple models continue to develop a few showers
in this area with sufficient moisture (PW values around 1.1")
and CAPEs around 500-1000 J/Kg, however parcels will have to
overcome a subsidence inversion evident in the 00z KMHX and
forecast model soundings. This inversion is strongest closer to
the coast where CAPEs will also be at a minimum so not expecting
any showers to make it east of highway 17 except possibly near
the western Albemarle Sound. Sfc high pressure will be centered
off the coast bringing warm southerly flow with low level
thicknesses around 1380m yields highs around 75-80 most areas.


As of 3 AM Monday...Shortwave ridging migrates eastward
overnight as a more robust shortwave approaches from the west.
Expect increasing clouds but generally dry conditions much of
the overnight, however cannot rule out an isolated shower
approaching far western sections late. Continued mild with lows
in the low to mid 50s.


As of 330 AM Monday...most of the upcoming extended period will
be characterized by near to above normal temperatures with
threats of rain Tuesday afternoon and evening and again on

Tuesday and Tuesday night...Strong mid-level shortwave will
cross the region during the day Tuesday as cold front
approaches from the west. Increasing moisture from the S/SW
along with good instability (SBCape values around 1500 J/kg and
LI`s around -5) will lead to scattered convection. Given the
instability driven by highs well into the 70s with dewpoints
approaching 60 degrees...the mid-level shortwave and some weak
low-level shear...most of eastern NC has been placed into a
Marginal Threat of severe weather Tuesday afternoon and evening
with the primary threat being strong wind gusts and hail and the
best timing from roughly 3 pm to 10 pm Tuesday. Do not expect
widespread precipitation coverage and have held PoP in the 30-40
percent range Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Wednesday through Thursday...High pressure will build both at
the surface and aloft providing a couple of dry days.
Temperatures will be 3-5 degrees cooler Wednesday then
considerably cooler on Thursday with highs only in the lower 50s
over the northern Outer Banks to low/mid 60s elsewhere.

Thursday night through Friday night...Deep mid-level trough will
dig into the Ohio Valley and take on a more negative tilt
Thursday night helping to advect deep moisture into eastern NC
on Friday ahead of cold front. This system looks considerably
wetter than the Tuesday evening system with model QPF in excess
of an inch Friday afternoon and evening. Clouds and
precipitation will hold high temperatures in the upper 60s to
lower 70s Friday and have continued likely PoPs Friday into
Friday night. Instability looks less than the Tuesday evening at this point...would think severe threat to be

Saturday through Sunday...After some lingering showers Saturday
behind the front...Expect Saturday evening into Sunday to be dry
and seasonable with high temperatures in the 70s and lows in the


Short Term /Through Monday Night/...
As of 2 AM Monday...Generally VFR conditions expected through
the TAF period. Patchy light fog development possible during the
pre-dawn hours this morning, especially at OAJ and EWN where
dewpoint depressions are only a degree or two. Followed closely
to persistence from last night as conditions are similar.
Generally dry conditions expected today but cannot rule out an
isolated shower or thunderstorm developing this afternoon across
the coastal plain.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/....
As of 330 AM Monday...Sub-VFR conditions will possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening in scattered showers and scattered
thunderstorms. Some of the storms will have the potential to be
locally strong to severe with high wind gusts. VFR conditions
should prevail under the influence of surface and mid-level
ridging Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms Friday will lead to periods of MVFR and possible
IFR ceilings and vsbys.


Short Term /Through Monday Night/...
As of 215 AM Monday...High pressure ridge will continue off the
southeast coast through the period bringing S to SW winds AOB 15
kt across the waters. Seas will continue around 2-4 ft today but
will build tonight as swell from low pressure north of
Hispaniola begins to impact the area. Both Wavewatch and NWPS
show seas building to 3-5 ft with up to 6 ft across the central
waters after midnight and will raise a SCA with the forecast

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/....
As of 330 AM Monday...Small Craft Advisories will be in effect
Tuesday south of Oregon Inlet and will continue into at least
Thursday...mainly for seas due to swell originating from non-
tropical low pressure east of the Bahamas. There will likely be
a lull in the seas Thursday night but expect an increase in wind
wave in gusty SW winds ahead of oncoming cold front Friday
afternoon and evening.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 11 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ152-154.



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