Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 220225
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1025 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. WILL
SEND ANOTHER UPDATED SET OF ZONES SHORTLY. BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT PRECIP WILL BE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THAT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ELSE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SHRT WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY...AND SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE MORNING
AND AFTN ALL ZONES. ISOLATED DOWNBURST PSBL WITH STRONGER STORMS
BUT MAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES AND
SOME TRAINING PSBL. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER 90S INLAND
AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND
SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR
SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 930 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
LATE EVENING. MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST
SITES...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS JUST N OF AREA WILL
PRODUCE SW WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WEAK
FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFT WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE
FRI AFTN. SEAS HOLDING AROUND 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM/BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JBM/BTC
MARINE...HSA/JBM/BTC






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