Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 050955
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
455 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL AFFECT
THE REGION EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 430 AM THUR...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH E NC
TODAY. SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND NEAR 50 NORTHEAST. THE
FRONT SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE NORTHERN AREAS INCLUDING NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS BY AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH THE FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THE COLD FRONT IS AN ANA FRONT...
WITH ALL OF THE PRECIP BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY. STRONG FRONTAL
INVERSION DEVELOPS AS WARM 850MB SW WINDS WILL INDUCE STRONG LOW
LEVEL FGEN. NEAR SFC TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
SHOULD DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING JUST AFTER THE EVENING
COMMUTE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM THUR...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MIXED
SLEET AND FZRA NORTH OF HWY 70. HAVE LEFT OUT THE SOUTHERN ZONES
ATTM DUE TO TEMPS TAKING LONGER TO DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK. NO
SNOW EXPECTED IN THE FA AS BULK OF OMEGA WILL BE IN THE SUB
DGZ...AND IMPRESSIVE WARM NOSE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE 850-850 MB
LEVEL. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE A FZRA/SLEET MIX AS NEAR SFC LAYER MAY
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A REFREEZE TO ICE PELLETS THIS
EVENING. THIS WOULD CUT DOWN ON FZRA ACCUMS... AND AT THIS TIME
EXPECTING UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SLEET AND SEVERAL
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIGHT FZRA ACCRUAL. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RECENTLY WILL PREVENT BIG PROBLEMS ON
ROADS...THOUGH BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SLICK THIS
EVENING. DEEP LAYER DRYING OCCURS AFTER AROUND 6Z WITH MAJORITY OF
ORGANIZED WINTRY PRECIP EXITING OFF THE COAST. SOME LINGERING
-FZDZ MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...AND HAVE AN EXPIRATION
TIME OF 9Z FOR THIS REASON. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE
POTENTIAL INCLUSION OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO THE ADVISORY IF TEMPS
DROP MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM THURSDAY...THE LAST GASP OF WINTER EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN A RETURN TO MORE MODERATE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON
FRIDAY WITH REGARDS NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. WHILE THE MODELS ARE
TRENDING DRIER THAN 24 HOURS AGO MOS POPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
NON ZERO THREAT OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. EARLY IN THE PERIOD IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR LIGHT SLEET AND OR FREEZING RAIN THEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST INTO THE MID 30S SOUTH AND LOWER 30S NORTH CHANGING ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TO RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

CLEARING AND VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
INLAND WILL PRODUCE COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE ECMWF AND MAV MOS ARE
INDICATING TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THE MID TO UPPER TEENS! DID NOT
GO QUITE THAT LOW JUST YET WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE
AROUND 20 INLAND TO THE UPPER 20S BEACHES. MODERATING TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT COUPLE OF SRN STREAM SYSTEMS. THE FIRST IS
FORECAST AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN ANOTHER
WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUE-WED. WILL COVER WITH 20% CHC OF RAIN TO
INDICATE LOW FCST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING MAY DIMINISH TO
IFR/LIFT CIGS OVERNIGHT IF WINDS SUFFICIENTLY DIMINISH ALLOWING
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT AREA TAF SITES. LOW
CONFIDENCE HOWEVER AND LEFT OUT OF ALL EXCEPT KOAJ AT THE MOMENT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS ALL AGREE ON STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION
WITH IFR CIGS THUR BEHIND STRONG COLF FRONT. MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT SO COULD SEE RAIN CHANGE TO FZRA AND ICE
PELLETS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER THURSDAY
BEFORE ENDING. WINDS SWITCH ABRUPTLY NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND BECOME GUSTY...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO FRIDAY. CLEARING EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THE REST OF PERIOD. GUSTY N-NE WINDS 15-25 MPH WILL
OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF FRONT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 430 AM THUR...MARINE DENSE FOG CONTINUES THIS MORNING DUE TO
SW WARM FLOW OVER COLD WATERS. THE DENSE FOG WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATERS/ALBEMARLE SOUND THIS MORNING AS STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH SHARPLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH. THE
FRONT WILL TAKE LONGER TO REACH THE SOUTHERN WATERS...EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO WILL LEAVE MARINE FOG ADVISORY INTACT UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON.

GALE WARNINGS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT SCA SRN
RIVERS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERIOD OF 25 TO 35 KT WINDS ACROSS
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH THE MORNING...REACHING THE
CRYSTAL COAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY. SW WINDS 10-20 KT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SWITCH RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.


LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE WARNINGS WILL BE IN
AFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE SRN RIVERS
WHERE AN ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT. POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW
OF 25 TO 35 KT EARLY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 KT LATE
FRIDAY AND 10 TO 15 KT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 10 FT
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE WITH ELEVATED SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL REST OF WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-091>094-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-
     135-150-152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-150-152-154-156-158.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL


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