Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 181500
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep low pressure just off the coast today will lift quickly
northeast. High pressure will build in from the west today
through the weekend. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday
morning followed by high pressure on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 10 AM Thu...Winter Wx headlines no longer in effect.
Latest sfc analysis shows low pressure well off the VA/NC border
this morning, with high pressure centered over the deep south
and building eastward.

Latest satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies everywhere
with just some sct lingering scu moving off the Outer Banks this
morning. Temps are expected to rise above freezing for most
locations by noon today...though given the snow cover in the
Northern Outer Banks and temps currently in the mid 20s might be
close. Dropped Coastal Flood Advisory for the Outer Banks based
on gauges and winds. Cold and dry conditions will follow the
offshore low pressure system today, with high temps only in the
upper 30s to around 40 degrees across the area. Area roadways
will likely remain dangerous until temps rise above freezing and
melting begins.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 am Thu....Surface ridge over the lower MS valley today
will pass to the south tonight. Clear skies and a light west
wind expected. Low temps will quite cold, with low to mid 20s
inland and upper 20s/30 along the coast. Black ice on area
roadways expected as melted snow from today will very quickly
re-freeze this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 340 AM Thursday...Friday through Sunday...High pressure
moving off the coast, and rising heights will allow temperatures
to warm above average over the weekend, with dry weather
expected. Highs Fri will be in the 50s, and around 60 Sat and
Sun.

Monday through Tuesday...A cold front will approach Mon
bringing a threat of showers to area by evening. More widespread
showers are expected Monday night as the front moves into the
area. Increased pops to high chance Mon night. Mild
temperatures will continue ahead of the front with highs in the
lower to middle 60s expected Mon. The front is now forecast to
cross the area Tuesday morning so will include low chance PoPs.
Temps will continue mild with highs in the low 60s.

Wednesday and Thursday...Dry and slightly cooler conditions
will be forecast for Wednesday and Thursday behind the front
with highs in the 50s expected both days.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 635 AM Thursday...Drier air filtering across the area as
coastal low moves away from the coast is eroding cloud cover and
expect SKC/VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF period.
Gusty NW/W winds around 20 kt are expected through early this
afternoon.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 340 AM Thursday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
the period with dry high pressure over the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 10 AM Thursday...Dropped Gales for the central waters, and
dropped SCA for the inland rivers. SCA continues for the waters
and sounds.

Latest obs indicate N/NW winds 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt and
seas of 7-11 ft. Winds will below 25 kt by late afternoon.
Winds this evening will be W/NW 15 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to
15 kt by Friday morning. Seas will subside below 6 ft southern
waters late today, north of Oregon Inlet late this evening, and
early Friday morning across the central waters.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 340 AM Thursday...Friday and Saturday W/SW flow 10-15 kt
is expected with seas 2-4 ft. Light winds and slight seas
expected Sunday into early Monday, generally 10 kt or less with
seas 1-3 ft. Expecting increasing southerly winds to 10 to 15 kt
and 2 to 3 ft seas Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching
cold front.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ130-
     131-135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ156-
     158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME
MARINE...JME/CQD


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