Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 271946
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
346 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT REMAINS STALLED OFF THE COAST. AREA WILL REMAIN
IN SW FLOW ALOFT WITH UPR TRF TO THE W. THIS UPR TRF IS PRODUCING
SOME DIFL ALOFT NEAR AND OFF THE COAST AND THIS WILL CONT TO
PRODUCE SOME SCT SHRA ESPCLY IMD CST OVERNIGHT. HAVE SLIGHT POPS
DEEP INLAND THRU AFTN THEN DROP POPS THESE AREAS...CONT CHC POPS
ALONG CST ALL NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM LOW/MID 60S COOLER
INLAND SPOTS TO LOWER 70S OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRAD MOVE FURTHER E
FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER AND THE FRONT/LOW OFFSHORE MOVES
FURTHER E. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INLAND WITH A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POP IMD CST...ESPCLY EARLY. WITH MORE SUN INLAND SHLD SEE HIGHS
AROUND 85 WITH LOWER 80S CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM THURSDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER BERMUDA BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL OFF THE NC
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS
STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS INLAND TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A ROBUST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND. A BROAD
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
FRIDAY AND RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, THEN TRANSITION OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY ISOLATED, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DAY 7/8, IS PARTICULARLY
TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN ANY TROPICAL IMPACTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY, AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVERSPREADS EASTERN NC.

THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE TROPICS THIS WEEKEND AS THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH REGARDS TO
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND DAY 3 WITH POOR RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS, THUS IT IS TOO SOON TO SPECULATE AT
THIS TIME WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE FELT ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 1245 PM THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY E OF TAF
SITES NOW AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR POSS.
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG/ST HOWEVER
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR WILL BE WORKING IN SO FOR NOW THINK
WILL BE MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER SOME LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS CANT BE
RULED OUT. VFR SHLD DOMINATE FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...NE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONT AT MAINLY 10 TO
20 KTS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND FRONT/WEAK LOW
OFFSHORE. MOST MDLS SEEM UNDERDONE WITH WINDS CURRENTLY SO MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREV FCST. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET
CNTRL AND N AND MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FT S WITH POSS A FEW 5 FOOTERS WELL
E OF LOOKOUT. ON FRI THE HIGH BUILDS JUST TO THE N AS THE
LOW/FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER E. THIS SHLD LEAD TO NE WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS
3 TO 5 FEET...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS
SATURDAY, DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION
WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, VEERING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BECOME LESS THAN 10 KT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
WILL RANGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR
THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER IN
NORTHEAST WIND/SWELL CONDITIONS SATURDAY, THEN A GENERAL BLEND
WITH WAVEWATCH FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER
THE WEEKEND, CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY BEYOND DAY 3.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG


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