Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 251744
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1244 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY MID-MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM ON THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1243 PM TUE...FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EARLY AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH COASTAL NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL REGION. AS FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGE
ABOUT 1.5 INCHES. HEAVIER SHOWERS PRODUCING UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN
AN HOUR. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 60S. WITH CLOUD COVER...
PRECIPITATION...AND PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM / WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH CANADIAN AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO MID
50S OUTER BANKS. POPS ARE CATEGORICAL AND SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
THEN SETTLING IN TO A MORE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN STARTING LATE IN
THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE EASTERN STATES WED/THU THEN THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SKIRTING THE NC COAST WEDNESDAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE OUTER BANKS LATE IN THE DAY. A SOLID
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER EASTERN NORTHERN
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY THEN RAIN CHANCES WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL
1-3 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THIS MAY LEAD TO
MINOR/LOCALIZED FLOODING DURING THIS BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD BUT
WIDESPREAD FLOOD PROBLEMS NOT EXPECTED. OTHER THAN FOR COASTAL
AREAS, THERE WONT BE MUCH OF A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE WITH
READINGS STUCK IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST WED.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW, WARM SECTOR TEMPS MAY RISE
INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST.

LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA ON NW WINDS AS THE SFC
LOW MOVES WELL TO THE NE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A
MID LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH MAY PROVIDE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS BUT EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP
TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S INLAND AND LOW 40S COAST WED NIGHT WITH HIGHS
ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW 50S. ALSO A SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA
WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROF WITH TEMPS
REMAINING WELL BLO NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER WILL
HIGHLIGHT WEATHER DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR
OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. MODEL
CONCENSUS FAVORS A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE MONDAY WHICH MAY
KNOCK TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGS MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM TUE...AREA OF RAIN OVER WESTERN TAF SITES THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE IFR CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN LOW
CEILINGS. WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH LOW
VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE MOVES THROUGH AREA TAF SITES. WIDESPREAD
IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. FRONT WILL ANCHOR OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE
FORMS AND MOVE NORTH OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITION WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN TAFS WITH MVFR
OVER WESTERN TAFS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SOLID AREA OF RAIN WILL BRING LIKELY IFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST THRU
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. MAY BEING TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SFC
LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA WED AFTERNOON BUT MAY NOT SEE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THEREAFTER EXPECT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY APPROACHES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THEN
TRANSITS THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1238 PM TUE...SOUTHWEST FROM AROUND 10 KNOTS OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. COLD
FRONT OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. GRADIENT HAS RELAXED WITH THIS FRONT ALLOWING SPEEDS TO
REMAIN LOW. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY. WIND WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

STILL APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT WHERE SEAS DROP TO BELOW 6 FEET...BUT WILL CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO LATE WEEK...AS GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW OFF THE NC COAST
LATER TONIGHT WITH SEAS...PER LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN
MODEL...BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND AROUND
6 FEET SOUTHERN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE MARINE WEATHER EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEPENING SFC
LOW PRES SKIRTS THE COAST. MAY SEE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS, MAINLY IN
GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS AS THE
INTENSIFYING LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY CONTINUE WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ON FRIDAY. SEAS
PEAK 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT MAY REMAIN ABV 6 FT
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THRU FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFT W/SW AND GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BEGIN TO APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...CGG/BTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC/BTC






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