Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 190901
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
501 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM SAT...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE LOW PRESSURE SYS
MERGED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
FL/GA TODAY. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE TRENDS TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN HEIGHT TODAY AND WITH PW NEAR 1.50
INCHES...WILL RESULT HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. EXPECT RAINFALL
AMTS AN 1.0 TO 2.0 INCH ACROSS THE AREAS WITH HIGHER AMTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND OUTER BANKS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S
ALONG THE OBX TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM SAT...GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYS TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF GA/FL COAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT. THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WILL GRADUALLY START BECOMING LIGHT AND TAPER AWAY. LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ENE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MON. LEANED TOWARD ECMWF WHICH
KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY. HAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS CST TAPERING GRAD TO SLIGHT CHC DEEP INLAND. HIGHS
MAINLY 60 TO 65 WITH POSS SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS INLAND LATE. LINGERING
CHANCES OF RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL SECTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATE ABOUT THE STACKED LOW OFF THE SE COAST. MAY
FINALLY BEGIN TO SEE SOME CLEARING IN EARNEST PARTICULARLY OVER
INLAND SECTIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPS BACK INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE WATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MILDER LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW TUESDAY. MID RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMING INTO INCREASINGLY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS
LIFTED INDICES GO NEGATIVE AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE SHARP MID LEVEL
TROF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE REMAINING
LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER AS AN
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARD THE EAST COAST THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S INLAND WED WILL RISE TO AROUND 80 BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
AS OF 2 AM SAT...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALL TAF SITES AS RAIN
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL RAINFALL WILL BE
KEEP LOW CEILING AND VISIBILITY...BUT THERE WILL BE TIMES
CONDITIONS CAN REACH TO VFR BRIEFLY. NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER FL AND WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NE...OFF THE FL/GA COAST BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE RAIN SHIELD TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP REMAIN THRU AT LEAST
EARLY SUNDAY WITH CONT REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW. INLAND AREAS SHUD SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS IN WITH CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW. SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AS MIXING
INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE WITH A RETURN TO VFR BY MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
AGAIN LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THRU QUICKLY OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY WITH PREDOMINANT VFR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 430 AM SAT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF WINDS AND SEAS. WINDS WILLS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AROUND THE MORNING HOURS TO GALE FORCE WINDS
THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED GALE WARNING SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. ALSO
HAVE EXPANDED SCA COVERAGE TO ALBEMARLE SOUND...ALLIGATOR
RIVER...PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS...AND NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS ALL
STARTING AT 8AM.

TODAY SEAS WILL INCREASE 7 TO 9 FT IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT PEAKING TO 9 TO 10 FT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS...8
TO 10 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS AND 6 TO 10 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...STRONG WINDS WILL CONT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH TIGHT GRDNT BETWEEN SFC LOW TO S AND HIGH PRES TO THE N. CONT
GALES CNTRL AND SRN WTRS THRU SUN EVENING WITH SCA ELSEWHERE. AS
THE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY E AND THE HIGH WEAKENS WINDS WILL GRAD
SUBSIDE MON AND BECOME LIGHT MON NIGHT AS THE WEAK HIGH CROSSES.
WINDS WILL GRAD BECOME SW 10 TO 15 KTS TUE AHEAD OF NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE GUSTY NE WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT OVER THE
OUTER WTRS LATER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCA FINALLY ENDING ALL WTRS BY 12Z
TUE. SEAS WILL LINGER MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE TUE. NW TO N
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS LATER TUE NIGHT INTO WED IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT WITH SEAS C0NT 3 TO 5 FT HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 AM SAT...HAVE ISSUED HIGH SURF FOR OBX NORTH OF HAT
STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONT INTO MON. AS NE WINDS INCREASE
TODAY AND CONT THRU EARLY MON SEAS SWILL BUILD WITH WAVES IN SURF
ZONE LIKELY REACHING 7 TO 9 FT. THE PERSISTENT POUNDING WAVES
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED OVERWASH DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. ALSO THE
PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL LEAD TO WATER LEVELS OF UP TO 2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR AMZ136-137.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/BM
MARINE...RF/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RF








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