Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 260237
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
937 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOP
OFF THE COAST MONDAY. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA BUT
DECK OF EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS RAPIDLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...AND SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF
A BIT MORE THAN FORECAST AND ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS
DOWN A BIT...BUT SHOULD LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDINESS INCREASES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
INTERESTING, TRANSITIONAL WEATHER DAY AS THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES DURING THE MORNING THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORCING IS LIMITED FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT. WILL HAVE MOSTLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
TOMORROW WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE BEST INCOMING FORCING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
RISES WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TOMORROW BUT BACKED OFF
MAX TEMPS A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED (BUT AT SOME TIMES VARIABLE) CLOUD
COVER. SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST LATE BEFORE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING DURING LATER FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH SFC LOW PRES CENTERED OFF THE NC/VA BORDER
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH THE SFC LOW LIFTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OFF
CAPE COD TUESDAY. ACROSS EASTERN NC...SHOWERS CHANCES CONTINUE
MON NIGHT INTO TUES AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM. MOISTURE
RATHER LIMITED AND NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH QPF HOWEVER...GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT THROUGH TUES. HAVE
CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE EARLY MON EVENING...THEN MAINLY NE SECTIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TUES AS THE PARENT LOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFT NORTHEAST. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS CHARTS
INDICATING PRECIP REMAINING LIQUID THROUGH THE EVENING...A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN MAINLY SNOW
THROUGH TUES MORNING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TUES AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40. TEMPS
INITIALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT STEADILY FALLS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS CAA PERSISTS...FALLING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S EARLY
TUES. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUES MORNING AND ONLY
WARMING TO AROUND 40-45 TUES AFTERNOON. WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE LONGEST...BUT WITH THE
RELATIVELY WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
TO BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION.

MOISTURE PULLS OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT AND WED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WED/WED
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THURS AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WED
AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR THURS.

CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE WITH A COUPLE LATE PERIOD NRN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TAPS MORE GULF MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY
WETTER ACROSS EASTERN NC. KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR NOW. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI THROUGH
SAT. MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM THAT
MAY IMPACT THE REGION SUN. THE GFS DEVELOPS WEAK LOW PRES ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND POSSIBLY PRECIP IMPACTING COASTAL
SECTIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEVELOP A LOW OFFSHORE WITH A
DRY CLIPPER FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN. TEMPS FOR THE LONG TERM EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY 40S FOR HIGH...EXCEPT FRI WHEN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 610 PM SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS POTENT UPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO PRED VFR TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM SUNDAY...MAIN CHANGE THIS UPDATE IS TO INITIATE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS START MONDAY
EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT. THAT`S BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS WITH 9-10 SECOND PERIOD
SWELLS. THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NE MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
W/NW AND INCREASING TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN
THE DAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH LOW PRES CENTERED OFF THE NC/VA COAST. THE SFC LOW
WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU
MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THURS NIGHT AND FRI AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT N MON
EVENING THEN BUILD FURTHER TO 6 TO 9 FT TUE...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND
NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

WITH PERSISTENT GUSTY NWLY FLOW...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
COULD RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 5 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/BTC/SK





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