Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 271326
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
926 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR AS A
FINE LINE WHICH HAS JUST MOVED SOUTHEAST THROUGH KINSTON AND
WASHINGTON A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST BY GUIDANCE. INITIAL
BATCH OF RAIN WAS MOVING THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS/ALBEMARLE SOUND
COUNTIES. A SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WAS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES AROUND 16Z ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL.
WILL CONTINUE HIGH POP FORECAST REMAINDER OF TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS STILL ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR TEMPS TO RISE A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...WHILE THE BULK OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 00Z...SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN DEEP 500 MB TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION TONIGHT. WHILE MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL
OCCUR AS RAIN...PLUMMETING THICKNESS VALUES LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TOWARD MORNING. QPF IS MEAGER AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S
AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS...WHICH REMAIN IN THE LOW 40S...NO REAL
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. POPS WILL BE IN THE 20-30 PCT CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...ANOMALOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE
PERIOD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
-10C SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY AND
WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN NC. THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S SO ANY SNOW WOULD MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN. IN ADDITION GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM
THUS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WOULD MELT SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS PRECIPITATION. ONLY CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO SC SHOWERS ACROSS THE NNE COUNTIES INTO
SAT AFTERNOON WITH MODELS ADDITIONAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SAT IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WHICH IS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA PRODUCING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOW BEGUN FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES...SO A FREEZE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NC EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS.
COULD SEE A FREEZE FOR THE OUTER BANKS...ESP THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
BUT BEING MORE MARGINAL WITH THE NW BREEZE...AT THIS TIME WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS RE-EVALUATE. LOWS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING IN
THE MID 20S/LOW 30S.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST.
HIGH IN THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S...COOLEST ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RETURN GUSTY SW FLOW BRINGS
CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES COME INTO PLAY IN TIMING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
IN THE WEEK. CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS A SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW MON/MON NIGHT ONLY 20 PERCENT FOR
NOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND TIMING DIFFERENCES.

TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ZONAL FLOW AND TEMPS NEAR CLIMO TUESDAY
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT BEST PRECIP CHANCE WILL BE THU
WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY HELD OFF
THUS FAR...BUT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOWER CEILINGS
BEHIND FRONT...ARRIVING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER-END MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY START TO OCCUR IN
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SAT WITH SCT LIGHT SHOWERS. PRED VFR CONDITIONS SAT
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL APPROACH MONDAY AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ISO/SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM FRIDAY...WINDS/SEAS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN THE
NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE AS THE FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH. PREFRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS LIKEWISE WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET BY
AFTERNOON WITH ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT
PER LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODEL.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY WITH MODERATE NW FLOW 15-25 KT AND SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT.
GUSTY WINDS SAT MORNING...THEN COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH CAA. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WNW SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS MON. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH WSW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO
4-6FT...HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY MON MORNING INTO THE EVENING. MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN
REGARDING TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE MONDAY NIGHT. TUE
WINDS LESS THAN 15KT NNW IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SSW BY TUE
EVENING WITH SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...JME/CTC/CQD



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