Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 261052
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
652 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
Friday night producing above normal temperatures. Weak low
pressure will approach from the southeast Saturday then is
forecast to stall to the south Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 7 AM Thursday...Increased cloud cover across the area for
this morning. With Bermuda High off the southeast coast will
continue to bring warmer air into the area. SW winds will be 10
mph or less. Scattered clouds expected during the afternoon along
inland moving seabreeze. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies and above
normal temperatures, mid to upper 80s except around 80 along the
Southern OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Another mild and dry night as high pressure
dominates the area. lows will mainly be in the 60s with light SW
winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...made minor adjustments to POPs for Friday
night, otherwise no significant changes with this forecast
issuance. Models have continued to delay moisture increase and
thus precip threat Friday night and now appears Friday evening
will be dry for most of area. 00Z GFS shows good consistency with
previous runs with possible subtropical low stalling off SC coast
Sunday-Monday, while 00Z ECMWF has system making a Cape Fear-Cape
Lookout-Cape Hatteras tour Monday-Tuesday which is a fairly
significant change from previous run. Will continue previous
forecast thinking and WPC progs with system stalling to south.

Friday: Axis of strong NVA moving west from the Atlantic and
westward push of Bermuda Ridge should keep Friday dry across the
region. Models continue to indicate low level thicknesses 5-10
meters lower than today, and surface winds becoming SE. Thus
expect max temps 1-2 degrees cooler, mainly 84-88 inland and
around 80 beaches.

Friday night through Wednesday: Per above, models keep Friday
evening mainly dry and lowered POPs except for slight chance along
south coast. Deep SE flow tapping subtropical moisture east of
Bahamas begins to spread in late Friday night and Saturday and
persists rest of period as weak mid level circulation stalls to
south and gradually moves in over GA/SC. 00Z ECMWF is more of an
outlier with system moving N-NE along NC coast Mon-Tue and will
discounted for now. Preferred model blend will keep scattered
shower and thunderstorm threat across area Sat-Wed and kept chance
POPs all areas during period. No big temperature swings in this
period with highs generally low/mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Thursday...Mid level 8K ft deck across TAF sites this
morning. High confidence in mainly VFR conditions through the TAF
period as high pressure continues over the area producing mostly
clear skies and light SW winds.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...VFR conditions are likely Friday as
surface ridge lingers offshore and the mid-level ridge crests over
the region. Model guidance continues to indicate surface low,
possible subtropical/tropical, to form and move toward the GA/SC
coast Saturday into Monday. This will result in an increase in
shower activity through the period with the greatest coverage of
rain likely to be Sunday afternoon into Monday. Sub-VFR conditions
will be likely with convective activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Thursday...No changes. Pleasant boating conditions
will continue through the period with high pressure off the
southeast coast influencing the weather. Winds will be SW 5-15
knots with seas 2-3 feet.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...With surface high pressure lingering
offshore and the axis of the mid-level ridge in place, light se/s
winds at 5-10 knots with seas around 2 feet can be expected
Friday. Models continue to indicate SE winds increasing to 10-15
KT over weekend as possible subtropical low moves towards area
from SE but then stalls off GA/SC coast. Persistent SE fetch will
likely result in building swell with seas increasing to 4-6 FT
Saturday and Saturday night, then subsiding to 3-5 FT Sunday-
Monday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/LEP
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JAC/JBM
MARINE...JAC/JBM



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