Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 271042
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
642 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An inland trough and Bermuda high pressure offshore pattern will
prevail through the week. A weak cool front will approach from
the northwest over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 640 AM Wednesday, convection from earlier this morning has
dissipated and have removed PoPs from the forecast for the next
few hours. Anticipate additional showers and thunderstorms to
develop on leftover boundaries, primarily over our northern CWA
in the Albemarle Sound/Northern Outer Banks region with some
activity developing south to the Pamlico Sound. Have chance PoPs
in these areas tapering to slight chance over the southern
counties. Northern sections are in a Marginal Threat of severe
thunderstorms today. The other issue today is once again the
heat. Apparent temperature forecasts show at least a few hours of
105-109 degree heat indices during the afternoon and evening for
all but the Ocracoke area as actual air temperatures reach the
mid/upper 90s away from the coast and even lower 90s along the
Crystal Coast with upper 80s central Outer Banks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 250 AM Wednesday, expect convection to be ongoing through
the evening and into the overnight hours, especially over the
northern portions of the CWA, especially in the Albemarle/Pamlico
Sound areas east to the central and northern Outer Banks...where
the best deep omega will occur through midnight. Another very warm
and muggy night upcoming with lows upper 70s to lower 80s...except
a bit cooler where any storms occur.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3am Wed...Weather pattern will slowly become more unstable
across the area. Persistent mid-state trof and Bermuda high will
continue into the weekend. Frontal boundary will approach from the
N early next week. Corresponding upper pattern will become more
active with numerous disturbances moving through the flow. Hot
temps will continue into this weekend, with Heat Advisory criteria
likely each day. With more clouds and convection early next week,
apparent temp values will be lower.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short term /Through 12Z Thursday/...
As of 640 AM Wednesday, will continue to forecast primarily VFR
conditions at the TAF sites today. There will be a threat of
scattered thunderstorms during the later afternoon and evening
hours, but KPGV seems the most likely location to receive these
storms with a smaller threat near KISO. Any ceiling or visibility
reductions in these storms would be brief. Tonight should continue
VFR as guidance keeps light winds in place.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/
As of 3am Wed...Sub-VFR in scattered convection each day, as well
as in possible late night/early AM patchy fog, especially where
precip occurred. Winds will continue SW 5-15 knots by day and less
than 10 knots at night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and tonight/
As of 645 AM Wednesday, little change in the current setup across
the coastal waters and sounds. Winds are running 5-15 knots with a
few gusts to near 20 knots at Diamond Shoals with seas 1-3 feet
with occasional 4-5 footers near Diamond Shoals. Expect the
diurnal trends will continue today and tonight as winds diminish a
bit during the morning hours, increase during the afternoon and
evening, then diminish again after midnight. Seas should mostly be
2-4 feet through the period, which will be reflected in the
forecast, although at stray 5-footer will be possible in some of
the gusty late-day winds.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/
As of 3am Wed...Weather pattern of the past few day will continue
into this weekend, with surface trof over the midstate area, and
the Bermuda high offshore. SW winds 10-20 knots and 2-4 foot seas
on the coastal waters, and SW 5-15 on the adjacent sounds and
rivers.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA



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