Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
FXUS62 KMHX 270206
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1006 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017
Weak high pressure over the Atlantic will extend into the area
through Thursday. A weak cold front will move through the area
Thursday night and early Friday. High pressure over the
Atlantic will then build into the region late Friday through
the weekend producing above normal temperatures and below
normal rain chances. A cold front will approach from the west
late Monday and cross late Monday night or early Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 10 pm Wed...Forecast looks good. No changes. Vertically
stacked low pressure will move into New England late tonight and
Thursday and dissipate. Meanwhile, high pressure over the
Atlantic will extend into NC. The result will be a period of dry
warm weather as the flow remains out of the SW. Guidance
continues to indicate enough mixing to preclude fog from
developing and the low levels have dried enough to inhibit any
low stratus development overnight. Thus skies will become clear
to partly cloudy. Overnight lows inland will be in the lower to
middle 60s and mid to upper 60s coast.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM Wed...Quiet weather continues with SW flow and and
Partly cloudy skies expected. Highs will be warm in the mid to
upper 80s inland and mid to upper 70s coast.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 PM Wed...Warm and mainly dry through the weekend then
rain chances increase early next week as a cold front crosses
the area late Monday night into early Tuesday. Temps are
forecast to briefly cool down to normal levels behind the front
Thu night and Friday...A rapidly dampening short wave that
will pass to the NW later Thu night and Fri morn with potential
for widely sct to sct convection especially late thu night and
early Fri. Drier air starts to arrive Fri afternoon and expect
any convection that forms too be isolated. Highs will be very
warm Fri despite the passage of the cold front with high
approaching 90 inland and around 80 beaches.
Sat and Sun...This period will be dominated by surface high
pressure offshore with ridging aloft. Precip chances look
minimal with just a few widely sct shra/tsra poss each
afternoon and evening assoc with sea breeze. With predominately
southwest flow thru the weekend will have very warm temps with
highs 85 to 90 inland and upper 70s to lower 80s beaches. Early
summer like lows in the 60s to lower 70s.
Mon through wed...A cold front will approach from the W Mon and
slowly cross the region Mon night and early Tue. Will remain
warm Mon with chc of some convection espcly inland during the
aftn as the front approaches. Models continue to indicate a
decent coverage of precipitation Mon night/early Tue with the
front sliding offshore late Tue with lingering shra ending from
W to E. Highs Mon will again climb well into the 80s then cool
into the 70s Tue behind the front. High pressure is forecast to
build into the area Wed with temps moderating into the low 80s
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /Through Thursday/...
As of 7 pm Wed...High confidence in VFR conditions through the
TAF period as high pressure extends into the area. The low
levels have dried enough to suppress stratus cloud formation
and low level mixing will be sufficient to prevent fog formation
Long Term /Fri through Monday/...
As of 400 PM Wed...VFR should dominate most of this period.
Widely sct to sct shra and tsra with sub VFR conditions possible
Thu night/early Fri as weakening short wave crosses...otherwise
mainly dry with just isold late day shra/tsra poss with sea
breeze Sat and Sunday. SW flow around offshore high pres shld
limit threat for late night fog.
Short Term /through Thursday/...
As of 10 pm Wed...Winds from Oregon Inlet north are southeast
5-15 knots and seas 4-5 feet. South of Oregon Inlet winds are
southwest 5-15 knots and seas 4-5 feet. After trending down,
Diamond Buoy this past hour has risen to just barely 6 feet.
Will not reissue small craft advisory however as this is likely
temporary. Winds will become SW 10-15 kt throughout the entire
marine area overnight...increasing to 15 to 20 kt late Thu aftn
as a cold front approaches. Seas 3 to 5 ft will build back to 4
to 6 ft over the outer central waters toward Thu evening.
Long Term /Thu night through Mon/...
As of 400 PM Wed...Moderate SW flow of 10 to 20 kts expected
thru Sat night around offshore high pres. These winds combined
with some lingering swell should lead to 6 foot seas outer
central and srn wtrs Thu night into Fri evening...otherwise seas
of 3 to 5 feet rest of the period. There is some concern that
the 6 ft seas could linger into Sat. On Sunday the the flow is
forecast to be SW 10-15 kt with 2 to 4 ft seas. The flow is then
forecast to increase to SW 20 to 25 kt Sun night and Mon ahead
of the next cold front with seas building to 5 to 8 ft.
As of 400 PM Wed...The Tar River in Greenville is currently
forecast to crest above major flood stage, while Contentnea
Creek in Hookerton is expected to crest above moderate flood
stage. The NE Cape Fear River in Chinquapin and Neuse River in
Kinston expected to reach minor flooding tonight. The Roanoke
River is forecast to rise over the next several days due to
increased flow out of Kerr Dam but is expected to remain just