Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 182040

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
340 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

A strong cold front will move through the area late tonight and move
offshore early Sunday. High pressure will be over the area through
most of next week.


As of 330 PM Saturday...A strong cold front along the
Mississippi River will sweep quickly east and arrive in the
eastern NC after midnight and move offshore by early in the
morning. Radar reflectivity forecasts from the HRRR and WRF/ARW
show a line of broken showers and expect QPF totals to be rather
light, on the order of one-tenth of an inch or less, mainly
after 09Z. Winds are quickly increasing over land currently and
will increase over the Sounds and coastal areas over the next
few hours. The combination of increased wind and SW winds will
lead to minimum temperatures on the order of 20 degrees warmer
than last night with lows in the 55-60 degree range.


As of 330 PM Saturday...Patchy showers in association with cold
front will end by mid morning with clearing skies as dewpoints
quickly drop into the 30s by afternoon. Despite decent CAA, high
temperatures will still be in the pleasant low/mid 60s with W/NW
breezes subsiding by mid to late afternoon.


As of 230 am Sat...High pressure then builds in Monday and
Tuesday. Another front will move off the coast Wednesday
morning. Low pressure will pass by to the southeast Thanksgiving
Day into Friday.

Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will build in from the west
Monday and then move off the coast on Tuesday. Cold air aloft
will lead to much below normal highs on Monday, but then warmer
southerly flow on Tuesday will lead to milder highs. Highs
Monday will be in the mid 50s, and on Tuesday highs will reach
60-65. Low temps will be in the lower to mid 30s inland both
Monday and Tuesday mornings, with mid to upper 30s further east,
and low to mid 40s along the coast.

Wednesday thru Friday...Another fast-moving front will move off
the coast Wednesday morning. After that, an offshore trough
will develop and move over the Gulf Stream on Wednesday, and
will bring showers to eastern NC. Have slight chance PoPs west
of Highway 17 and chance east. Low pressure will pass by to the
southeast Thursday and Friday. GFS is much stronger with the
low, while the ECMWF is much weaker. Consensus is favoring the
ECMWF solution at this time. Will carry mostly slight chance
PoPs Thursday and Friday.

High temps will be in the mid 60s Wednesday, and then the mid
50s Thursday and 55-60 Friday. Low temps Wed will range from
the mid 40s inland to the upper 40s to low 50s along the coast.
Lows Thursday will be around 40 on the coastal plain to 45-50
south coast and OBX. Lows Friday morning will be in the mid to
upper 30s coastal plain to mid/upper 40s south coast and OBX.


Short Term /Through 12Z Sunday/...
As of 1245 PM Saturday...High confidence that VFR conditions
will dominate most of the period, except when the cold front
passes through the area between 08-12z. High pressure slid off
the coast this morning with a cold front approaching the region.
Expect mid to high clouds to stream through the area this
afternoon with SCT to BKN SCU to develop and gusty SW winds up
to 20 KT. Models are showing possible MVFR ceiling conditions
after midnight as the cold front moves through the TAF sites
with gusty winds up to 30 knots and a chance of low level wind
shear 35-40 KT to occur. After the frontal passage, ceiling
conditions will return back to VFR with NW gusty winds.

Long Term /Sun thru Wed/
As of 230 am Sat...VFR conditions forecast through the rest of
the period as high pressure builds back over the area.


Short Term /Tonight and Sunday/...
As of 340 PM Saturday...Winds are already increasing inland and
should ramp up on the Sounds and Coastal waters by early
evening. No changes to current Gale Warning or Small Craft
Advisory. Anticipate SW winds ahead of the front to increase to
25-35 knots on most waters after midnight, with a few gusts to
40-45 knots early in the morning, before winds become W/WNW and
subside by late morning to midday on Sunday. Seas will rapidly
increase from 2-3 feet and build to 8-13 feet by late tonight
and early Sunday morning, before offshore winds help diminish
the seas fairly quickly by late in the day Sunday.

Long Term /Sun Night thru Wed/
As of 230 am Sat...Winds Sunday night/Monday morning will be
NNW 15-20 kts, subsiding to 10-15 kts in the afternoon. Winds
Tuesday will be light and variable before becoming SSE 5-10 kts.
Another front will cross the waters Wednesday morning, with
winds becoming north 10-15 knots.

Seas will remain elevated through Sunday evening north of
Ocracoke, then subside to 3-5 ft throughout Monday, then 2-4 ft
Tuesday and Wednesday.


NC...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for AMZ130-131-136-137.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for



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