Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 130213
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
913 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE THROUGH THE PIEDMONT OF NC ON TUESDAY. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 915 PM FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR CWA AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL ENE OF THE AREA. DROPPED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY EARLIER AND HAVE NOW DROPPED THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...REPLACING IT WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVERNIGHT
FOR BLACK ICE...GIVEN SNOW COVER AND MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS AS LOW
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S. PREVIOUSLY ISSUED AN SPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FOR BLACK ICE. LATEST IR SATELLITE SHOWS
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS OVER ERN NC BUT WITH SOME CLEARING
DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT. DID INCREASE SKY COVER A BIT UNTIL
AFTER 06Z WHEN CLEARING SHOULD COMMENCE. STILL LOOKING AT
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 420 PM FRIDAY...TIGHT PRES GRADIENTS  BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING A VERY COLD AND DRY
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MID 30S SOUTHERN AREAS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW IS COVERING THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO -20C BY
SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1225-1240M
RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME
RECORD LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT...THEN LOW MAX VALUES POSSIBLE
SUN. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS. COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE PERIOD SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO AROUND
20...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUN MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 27-32
DEGREES SUNDAY.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
COAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY...WHILE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES AS IN-SITU WEDGING OCCURS MON
MORNING. CMC/GFS/NAM INDICATE SOME WAA LIGHT SNOW BREAKING OUT MON
MORNING ACROSS THE NW TIER OF THE FA BEFORE SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE
LIFTS NORTH DUE TO STRENGTHENING SW LLJ. ECM CONTINUES MAINLY
DRY...AND SO THEREFORE HAVE NOT RAISED POPS BEYOND CHANCE MON
MORNING. SOME IMPACTS COULD OCCUR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR
THOSE AREAS BEFORE WARMING OCCURS LATER IN THE MORNING AND THE
WEDGE BREAKS DOWN. SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED MON NIGHT INTO TUE. E NC IS IN FAVORED RRQ OF
JET AND WITH DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE TRACKING ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT...THE ENTIRE AREA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR LATE MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DYNAMICS BECOME EXTREMELY STRONG WITH PLENTY
OF DEEP/LOW LEVEL SHEAR DEVELOPING BY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE...AND
BACKED SFC WINDS TO SSE COULD PRESENT AN ISO TORNADO THREAT.
MESOSCALE/THERMODYNAMIC DETAILS YET TO BE DETERMINED...THOUGH
SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES FAVOR A STRONG/SEVERE TSTORM SETUP ACROSS E
NC. WITH THE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING MON NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THREAT MAY DEVELOP
ALONG SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES. HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT
MAY ALSO BE OF CONCERN AS GOM WIDE OPEN WITH PWATS INC TO 1.5 IN
OR HIGHER. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING
WITH HEAVY RAIN ENDING AS EARLY AS MID DAY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...QUITE WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE
WEEK AS MODEL SUITE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BROAD HIGH PRES BUILDING
IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT. THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH HEIGHTS NEAR CLIMO MEAN
FOR MID FEB. HIGHS ON WED AND THUR IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S
NORTHEAST ZONES. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. FRIDAY MAY SEE
A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE CLIMO AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES BUILD WITH
ZONAL FLOW ENSUING AND MAX T`S POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRIDAY...WHILE ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST
OF THE TAF SITES...SOLID IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL DONWSLOPING WNW/NW WINDS INCREASE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY UNDER SUNNY SKIES BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
LOW PRESSURE BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER.
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT WINTRY MIX MONDAY
MORNING AT KISO AND KPGV BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AFTER AROUND
NOON. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AND SKC LATE TUE
INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 915 PM FRIDAY...N/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER
AIR. AS THE ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE TO 20-30 KT LATER TONIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE...UP TO 40 KT...LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE MARINE ZONES. WINDS
MAINLY 20-30 KT ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND SOUTH OF LOOKOUT. USED A
BLEND OF NWPS AND WAVEWATCH FOR SEAS AS NWPS TYPICALLY OVERDONE IN
NW FLOW EVENTS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-8 NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
SATURDAY AND 4-7 FT SOUTH

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NW WINDS 15-25 KT EXPECTED WITH SEAS
REMAINING ABOVE 6 FEET. RETAINED FREEZING SPRAY MENTIONED AS GUSTY
NW WINDS AND TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
MORNING. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS SUN
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER REPRIEVE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ON
MONDAY. AN AREA OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SW MONDAY...THEN LIKELY TRACK INLAND OVER EASTERN NC TUESDAY.
WINDS LOOK TO REACH GALE AT LEAST IN GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WATERS AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 25-35 KT...PEAKING EARLY
TUESDAY. SEAS BUILD TO 15 FEET OR HIGHER BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
TURN WSW BEHIND THE LOW AND DIMINISH TO 15-25 KT TUE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING...AND HIGH SEAS ABOVE 6 FEET CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MIN TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    16/1955  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  15/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     -2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  11/1968  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON         6/1973  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   15/1968  (KNCA AWOS)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    39/1979  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  35/1958  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     28/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  37/2015  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        34/1986  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   40/1958  (KNCA AWOS)


RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 2/15

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    20/2015  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  21/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE      2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  21/1969  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        13/1943  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   20/2015  (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ029-
     045>047-080-081-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/SK/TL
CLIMATE...MHX


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