Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 011501 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE TO END THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WELL DEFINED COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION SHOWS UP ON RADAR
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH MESOVORT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. IN FACT...DUAL
POL PRECIP ACCUM SHOWS OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN CT. THIS AREA OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE SLOW TO MOVE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PRIMARILY IMPACTING NEW HAVEN AND NW
MIDDLESEX COUNTIES. THE RAIN SHIELD MAY ACTUALLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN LI THIS AFT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD.

HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE
RAIN...CLOUD COVER...AND NE FLOW.

EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWERS IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR MODERATE TO
EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH THE MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...CORRESPONDING TO
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST FORCING/VORT MAX BY THIS
AFTN/EVENING. SO FOR POPS...AM KEEPING LIKELY/DEFINITE WORDING IN
FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF NYC METRO...WITH CHC TO THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PCPN CONTINUES THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION ON THE ENDING
TIME. UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS EAST...WITH THE MAIN FORCING GENERALLY
RESIDING OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA FOR THE NIGHT. AS
SUCH...BEGAN TO TAPER POPS BACK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EVEN POSSIBLE BY 06Z WEST OF NYC.
CONFIDENCE RESTS WITH THE PCPN CONTINUING THOUGH OVER EASTERN LI/SE
CT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BULLS EYE OF MAIN FORCING MAINLY
OFFSHORE...SIDING MORE WITH PCPN BEING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. 00Z NAM
AND ECMWF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WANT TO SEE THE TREND FOR
THE DAY BEFORE SIDING WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS. LIGHT PCPN LINGERS JUST
OFFSHORE THEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS THE REGION...BEING REPLACED
WITH RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH FRI EVENING. THE CFP
AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE STILL LINED UP FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS TIMING. POP HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO CAT FOR SAT...AND LIKELY POP ALSO CONTINUES INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING ACROSS SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND.

SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS ALL OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE
EAST. THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING...MAINLY MON INTO MON NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS...BOTH FRI/SAT SHOULD SEE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...THEN A
COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY LOWER/MID 60S. SLIGHT MODERATION
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY 65-70. LOWS SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A VERY MOIST
LOW LEVEL NE FLOW PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THIS RESULTS IN
IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS FOR LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT INTO THIS EVENING.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENT NNE SFC FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE UPPER TEENS FOR THE NY METRO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS DUE TO THE INFREQUENT
NATURE EXPECTED.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THOUGH DIRECTION MAY SWING 20 DEGREES RIGHT
OF 040 MAGNETIC AT TIMES.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY
EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...MVFR CIGS IN THE AM...THEN VFR. NE WINDS 10-15 KT.
.FRI...VFR. LGT SE WND.
.SAT...RAIN - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING NE FLOW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTN...WHILE SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT ARE EXPECTED. ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY. COULD SEE OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE BAYS AROUND LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT
TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A SCA MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THESE WATERS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY. THE REMAINING WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL THURS EVENING...WHILE THE
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS JUST THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THU NIGHT AND BEYOND...HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE FROM THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEY SHOULD FALL BLW 5 FT
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...THE ERN SOUND/BAYS COULD SEE SCA CONDS IN POST-FRONTAL W
FLOW ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ALL WATERS AGAIN ON MON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT WILL
RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
AREAS TO THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

QPF OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH LIKELY NW OF NYC ON SAT WITH COLD FRONT...AND
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH FARTHER EAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/DW
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC/TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS/DW










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