Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 280907
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
407 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND PUSH SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH JUST A DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NE NJ BETWEEN
9Z AND 11Z THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA.

HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL PUSH S OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING
FROM N TO S. A COLDER AIRMASS THEN BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. THE COLDEST OF THE AIRMASS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD
AIR WILL ENSUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CLOUDS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A PERIOD FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDS WITH LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
THEREFORE...HAVE LOWS FORECASTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S WELL
INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS STRONG
AND COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES DROPS FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. AN EXTENSION OF THIS HIGH WILL REACH ALL THE WAY
TO THE EAST COAST WITH DRY CONDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FROM THE NORTH MON EVE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TUE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY TUE.

ONE OTHER NOTE ABOUT TUE...NAM/SREF ARE THE ONLY SOLNS INDICATING
ANY PCPN ON TUE. THE H5 SHORTWAVE IN THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER THAN
ANY OTHER SOLNS AND IS WHAT IS CAUSING SUCH A DIFFERENCE. SINCE
MANY OF THE SREF MEMBERS HAVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NAM HAVE
DISCOUNTED THESE SOLNS FROM THE FORECAST FOR TUE AND HAVE REMOVED
SCHC POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVES EAST SLOWLY MIDWEEK INTO
LATE WEEK. THIS PUSHES HEIGHTS UP TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS GIVES
MORE OF A RIDGING PATTERN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

BELIEVE THE ECMWF MORE THAN THE GFS WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...TAKING A MUCH SLOWER TRACK FOR THIS.

THE COLD AIR MASS SLATED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DOES NOT
LAST THAT LONG. WED AND THU...WHEN THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR MASS
IS IN PLACE...HIGHS HOVER NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ON
AVERAGE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BY LATE WEEK.

WEATHER IS MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH SINCE THIS IS DAY 8 OF THE FORECAST.
THEREFORE...THESE POPS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT WITH MODEL
RUN FLUCTUATIONS BEING MORE LIKELY AT THIS VERY LATE FORECAST TIME
FRAME WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TONIGHT.

LIGHT S/SW WINDS UNDER 10 KT CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS VEER
TO THE WSW AFTER 12-14Z. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BECOMING NW TONIGHT.

MODERATE PROB OF MVFR CIGS IN -SHRA TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT KSWF...LOW
PROB FOR REST OF TERMINALS IN MORNING. MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND -SHRA.

IMPROVING CONDS LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH -SHRA ENDING.
VFR TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-THU...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING...VEERING WSW THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SCA...BUT SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS OCEAN
WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.

SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATER SUN THROUGH MON.

A LOW PROBABILITY OF MARGINAL SCA CONDS TUE/TUE NIGHT ON EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE/S TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.

BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS MAY BE WED NIGHT THRU THU WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2
TENTHS OF AN INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OF 1/2 INCH OR
MORE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$





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