Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 201926
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
326 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH A
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NYC METRO REGION WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S.
FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND...WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS OFF THE COLD WATERS WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE 50S.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LOWS FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE MID WEEK AS PAC AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASE.
MODELS CONTINUE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS EVOLUTION...WITH ONLY
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGED ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE RESULTANT PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
OUR REGION TUE NIGHT...WITH MAIN DIFFERENCES LYING IN AMOUNT OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY HANGING BACK LATE TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING WITH
SECONDARY TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVING THROUGH.

EXPECTATION IS FOR INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN GREATEST LIKELIHOOD TUES EVE/NIGHT. FRONTAL
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE TUES NIGHT...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH WED MORNING WITH
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. OVERALL LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT RAIN EVENT...WITH IMPROVING CONDS WED AFT.

DRY CONDITIONS UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING AS IT BUILDS ACROSS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON EVOLUTION OF NEXT TROUGH FOR END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND.
A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN A PAC CLOSED LOW AND NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY IS RESULTING IN MODEL SPREAD IN STRENGTH AND PROGRESSIVENESS
OF THIS TROUGH. POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS EITHER AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW/FRONTS AFFECTS THE REGION.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TUE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...THEN SEASONABLE
TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE A GENERAL S-SE FLOW 10-15 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT. THE WIND LOWERS INTO EARLY EVENING WHILE
BECOMING ALL SOUTHEAST BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS
EVENING. SEA BREEZE WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY...STARTING OFF LATE
MORNING ON CT COASTAL TERMINALS AND STARTING AT OTHER COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING END OF WIND GUSTS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. SEA BREEZE INTO MONDAY
EVENING.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...WITH
MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR.
NW-N WIND G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-N WIND G20-25 KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
.FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EASTERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ON THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
GUSTS...AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NEAR THE AREA WATERS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA GUSTS
AND OCEAN SEAS TUES NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SCA WIND GUSTS ON ALL WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WED INTO THU.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LATE THU INTO THU
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION...CONTINUING INTO
FRI. THEN POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDS FOR THE WEEKEND DEPENDS ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV





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