Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 281131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
731 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

High pressure along the New England coast today gradually works
offshore, while a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes. The
front will work slowly across the area on Monday. High pressure
follows for Tuesday. Another cold front moves through late
Wednesday into Wednesday night with high pressure for the end of
the week.


A high amplitude ridge across the East Coast, centered over the
Mid Atlantic states, will gradually flatten as a shortwave trough
tracks across the upper Great Lakes. The latter of which will send
a cold front toward the area. Before then though, another dry,
warm day across the region. It will be a bit cooler than Saturday
due to a subsidence inversion producing a shallower mixed layer,
but still several degrees above normal. Highs will generally range
from the lower 80s along the coast, to the upper 80s north and
west of NYC.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development today
as 3 ft at 8 sec period swells build into the waters with minimal
SE/S wind waves. There is a low potential for the risk to become
high late in the day if 2 ft 15+ second SE swells begin to work
into the water from distant tropical cyclone Gaston.


Upper ridge over the mid Atlantic region continues to get
suppressed south as shortwave tracks across eastern Canada, just
north of the Great Lakes. Associated cold front approaches the
Lower Hudson Valley by daybreak Monday, then slowly drops SE
across the area. The front is likely to clear the area by early
evening. Marginal instability and weak shear along and ahead of
the front point to isolated coverage of any showers or thunderstorms
that develop.

Highs Monday will be a bit warmer due to steeper lapse rates and
warm advection ahead of the front. Many locations will top out in
the upper 80s with areas in and around NYC getting into the lower

High pressure builds in from the NW Monday night and settles
across the area Tuesday with temperatures close to seasonable
levels. It will be somewhat humid with dew points in the lower
60s, but not oppressively so. Winds become onshore by afternoon as
the high moves offshore.

There is the potential for a high risk for rip current development
Monday as long period SE swells from distant tropical cyclone
Gaston build to 3 to 4 ft. If this occurs, breaking surf in the 3
to 5 ft range could be expected as well. These conditions will
likely continue into Tuesday.


A cold front approaches on Wednesday and passes during the late
day/nighttime period. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast during the period with the best overall
chance appearing to be during Wednesday night. There is a chance
that the cold front is still close enough, coupled with synoptic
lift from a jet streak aloft, for a chance of morning showers on
Thursday. For now, will go with slight chc pops east of the city
Thursday morning. Drying conditions otherwise through Saturday as
high pressure builds in behind the front. High temperatures
Thursday through Saturday will be fairly close to normal, and
dewpoints all 3 days will allow for relatively comfortable

The threat for rough surf and high risk for rip current development
could continue mid to late week if SE swells from Gaston continue
to affect the waters.


in control through tonight.

Light winds early this morning will become SE late morning into
early afternoon with sea breezes. Speeds will increase to around
10 kt in the afternoon, strongest at the coast.

Winds diminish and veer to the SW tonight.

.Outlook for 12Z Monday through Thursday...
.Monday...Mainly VFR. An isolated afternoon shower or tstm
.Wednesday-Wednesday Night...Mainly VFR. A few showers or
thunderstorms possible.
.Thursday...VFR. An isolated morning shower or tstm possible.


Seas will slowly build into early next week in response to long
period swells being generated by distant Tropical Cyclone Gaston.
Refer to advisories from the NHC for latest forecast information.
Whether seas build to marginal sca levels late Monday into Monday
night will be based on strengthening of Gaston.

For the rest of the forecast period, winds appear to remain below
advisory criteria, although they will increase during Wednesday
ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Seas will continue to
slowly build in response to long period swells being generated by
distant Tropical Cyclone Gaston. 5+ FT seas could move into to
the ocean waters as early as Monday night, and potentially linger
through the rest of the forecast period.


No significant widespread precipitation is expected through the
forecast period.




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