Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 201745 AAB
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.AVIATION...
20/18Z TAFs. VFR conditions expected to prevail until after 06Z
when primarily MVFR stratus expected to spread northward over most
terminals. Cigs expected to be most widespread and lower across
areas near and east of KSPS to KOKC and KPNC. Improvement expected
after 14Z as mixing and veering winds allow cigs to rise or start
to break up. Strong and gusty south winds will prevail. Chances
for restrictions due to isolated ra/tsra too low to mention this
cycle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 602 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The 12Z aviation discussion follows....

AVIATION...
Moisture will continue to stream north across north Texas and
Oklahoma through the period. This will result in ragged ceilings,
mainly around 3,000 to 5,000 ft today, but down to around 1,000 to
1,500 ft tonight. At least for the daytime, there will be numerous
breaks in the lower cloud cover. The lower ceilings overnight are
more likely east of KEND-KLAW-KSPS, with lower confidence farther
west.

A tight pressure gradient will bring moderate to strong south winds
across the region today and tonight.

Light showers will be scattered over southern Oklahoma and north
Texas this morning. Showers and perhaps a few isolated
thunderstorms will be a possibility throughout the region later
today and tonight. At any given point, however, the chances will
be low.

CmS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Patches of light rain have appeared on area radar displays early
this morning. A generally moist southerly flow will help support
scattered light rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms through
Saturday afternoon.

The surface pressure gradient will be rather tight across
northwest Oklahoma today, resulting in near-Wind Advisory
conditions. Winds will likely remain fairly strong overnight
tonight and into early Saturday as well.

The big event will be Saturday afternoon and evening, as a cold
front advances southeast across Oklahoma and north Texas.
Moderate instability and fairly strong wind shear will lead to a
substantial risk of severe storms. Storms should start out as a
broken line of thunderstorms, including a few supercell storms.
Over the next several hours, the storms are expected to merge
into a nearly solid line, with strong winds becoming the primary
severe weather risk.

The storms should exit our forecast area early Sunday morning
(before sunrise). Somewhat cooler weather will follow on Sunday.
After that, temperatures will rise into Monday, before another
cold front arrives Monday afternoon and evening. Another warming
trend will run through Thursday, when the next front arrives.
Neither of these fronts is likely to have enough moisture to work
with to generate any significant rain or thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  66  77  50 /  20  20  50  90
Hobart OK         76  64  80  48 /  30  20  50  60
Wichita Falls TX  77  66  83  52 /  30  20  40  80
Gage OK           74  63  76  41 /  20  20  30  20
Ponca City OK     77  67  77  47 /  10  20  60  80
Durant OK         77  66  81  57 /  40  20  30 100

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

04/10/11



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