Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 042359
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
659 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION NORTH OF GARDEN CITY AND DODGE
CITY MAY IMPACT WWR/GAG MAINLY AFTER 3-4Z. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS
MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP/MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL (PNC) AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT OTHER TERMINAL SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY... SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN OK. THE MCV FROM EARLIER CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN THIS AFTN AS IT LIFTS E/NE INTO NERN OK. SKIES CONTINUE TO
CLEAR SLOWLY ACROSS WRN OK... WITH LOW LEVEL CU STRUNG OUT ACROSS
NWRN OK IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK H700 SHORT WAVE. CLOUD COVER SLOWED
TEMPS THIS MORNING... BUT WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING 3HR TEMP CHANGES
THROUGH 19Z WERE ON THE ORDER OF 6 TO 10F. IN RESPONSE... STILL FEEL
CONFIDENT IN HIGHS THIS AFTN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS W/SW
OK/WRN N TX AND UPPER 80S ACROSS CENTRAL OK.

OVERNIGHT... SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND HIRES WRFS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND
SLIDING THEM SWRD ACROSS KS... CLIPPING N/NERN OK THROUGH DAYBREAK
WED. THROUGH 04/19Z... ISOLATED STORMS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN NE/NERN KS IN RESPONSE TO A MINOR MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. FORWARD PROP (CORFIDI) VECTORS AND 0-3KM SHEAR AND
DECENT INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT... 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE SUGGEST THIS
COMPLEX SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AND SLIDE E/SE ACROSS ERN
OK... CLIPPING NORTH CENTRAL OK... AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
NRN EDGE OF THE OKC METRO AND LOCATIONS E/NE.

WEDNESDAY... HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL MAKE ITS TRIUMPHANT... BUT
NOT WELCOME... RETURN TO THE REGION. CLOUDS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
SYSTEM MAY HELP... BUT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND INCREASING WARM S/SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN AFTN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS
W/NW OK AND THE LOWER 100S ACROSS SW OK/WRN N TX. TO THE EAST...
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK... DPTS WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH
THE AFTN... COMBINED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S... TO NEAR
100 ACROSS TEXOMA... AFTN HEAT INDICES WILL EASILY REACH 105 TO 107
ACROSS THE REGION. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 81 AND ALONG/SOUTH OF HWY 412.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE TWO OF THE HOTTEST DAYS... WITH
PERSISTENT DPTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ON THU AND FRI... HEAT
INDICES WILL EASILY REACH 110 TO 111 ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK/WRN N
TX... AND NEAR 112 TO 114 ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXOMA. A HEAT ADVISORY
AND POSSIBLY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR
A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION THU AND FRI AFTNS. WE`LL START TO DRY
OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND... BUT AFTN HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS THE REGION SAT AND SUN... WITH HEAT INDICES
NEAR 105 TO POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE
RED RIVER.

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CARRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. PLEASE BE
CAREFUL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IF YOU ARE WORKING OR PLAYING
OUTSIDE... DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS. BE AWARE
OF WHAT YOUR BODY IS TELLING YOU... HEAT STRESS AND HEAT STROKE CAN
SET IN QUICKLY. DO NOT LEAVE CHILDREN... THE ELDERLY... OR PETS IN
CARS. BE A GOOD NEIGHBOR AND CHECK ON YOUR ELDERLY NEIGHBORS TO BE
SURE THEY ARE STAYING COOL.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  97  75 100 /  10  10  10   0
HOBART OK         73 101  75 105 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  77 102  79 104 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           71  98  71 102 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     72  94  73  97 /  70  20  10   0
DURANT OK         76 100  79 102 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ013-018>020-
     024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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