Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 180533

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1033 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

Issued at 927 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

Area of enhanced reflectivity and brief heavy snow currently
spilling over the Palmer Divide and across nrn El Paso county
forecast by latest HRRR to drop south through about 07z, with
intensity diminishing as it reaches the lower Ark Valley. Given
rather vigorous snowfall currently occuring, have nudged snow
accum grid upward into the 1-3 inch range for nrn El Paso county,
and pushed at least slight chances for precip farther south into
the Arkansas Valley. Mountain highlights look on track, with heavy
snow continuing along the Continental Divide the next few hrs.

UPDATE Issued at 503 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

Updated to expire high wind warning for the southern I-25


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 326 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

...Snow and Wind to continue through tonight...

Upper trough axis is currently moving into the Great Basin with
southwesterly 140 kt upper jet translating across CO.  Have seen
some very strong wind gusts across the higher peaks and along the
southern I-25 corridor including TAD were a gust to 66 mph occurred
around 1 PM.  Winds have since decreased a bit across the lower
elevations but high res models suggest threat for high wind gusts
will continue through 00z. Meanwhile...winds over the mountain peaks
will continue to gust to around 70 mph...and even higher for wind
prone areas like Monarch.

Best window for lift will be from now through 06z as the upper trof
swings across.  Snow will continue to fall along the Continental
Divide where a variety of Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories
remain in effect through tonight.  Additional snow amounts in the 4-
8 inch range can be expected through this evening for the Sawatch
and Mosquito ranges...with generally another 2-4 inches for the
Eastern San Juans.  Cold front will drop through the plains this
evening bringing a sudden northerly wind shift.  A band of showers
will develop along/behind the front with rain changing to snow
across the Palmer Divide during the evening.  Precipitation will be
short-lived but could see local accumulations of up to an inch for
that area. Otherwise...greater concern will continue to be the winds
with the potential for gusts between 40 and 50 mph behind the
front...particularly across the plains to the east of KCOS and KPUB.

Snow will diminish towards morning across the mountains with dry
weather returning for Saturday.  Winds will remain gusty across the
higher peaks and far southeast plains Saturday morning...but should
decrease as the day goes on.  Temperatures tomorrow will be below
normal. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 326 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

Saturday night-Monday...Northwest flow aloft across the region
Saturday night is progged to moderate and become more westerly
Sunday and into early Monday. This pattern keeps dry weather in
place across the area, with temperatures warming back to near
seasonal averages in the 50s to lower 60s across the lower
elevations on Sunday, and mainly in 40s across higher terrain.
Warming continues into Monday, with highs expected back above
seasonal levels in the 60s across the lower elevations and mainly
40s and 50s across the higher terrain.

Monday night-Wednesday night...Increasing northwest flow progged
across the area Monday night as a short wave translates across the
Great Basin, which continues across the Rockies through the day
Tuesday and into the High Plains through early Wednesday. Said
wave currently progged to stay too far north to bring much in the
way of precipitation to the area, save for some showers across the
central mountains Monday night through Tuesday morning, with the
system`s passing cold front bringing slightly cooler temperatures
to the area on Tuesday. The GFS has another weak wave digging down
the backside of a long wave ridge building across the Rockies on
Wednesday, where as the EC is much further east with this wave. At
any rate, either solution keeps the area dry on Wednesday, with
temperatures warming back to near seasonal levels.

Thanksgiving Day-Friday...The latest longer range models indicating
a dry and warm Rex Blocking pattern in the offing for the
Thanksgiving Holiday, with long wave ridging in place across the
Rockies and deep troughs across the west and east coasts.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1027 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

Band of rain/snow dropping south through KCOS as of 05z and will
carry some MVFR/brief IFR conditions through 08z, then fairly
rapid clearing through the morning as precip shifts se. At KPUB,
temps look warm enough for mainly rain, with a vcsh mention
through 08z then clearing. Brief shower possible through 07z-08z
at KALS as well, before precip shifts south. Over the mountains,
still a few more hrs of snow to go, with IFR and mt obscuration
widespread until 12z-14z Sat morning. All of southern co should be
VFR by midday Wed as drier air spread across the state.


Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Saturday for COZ059-063-

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Saturday for COZ058-060-061-



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