Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 311019
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...REACHING
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. BEST LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING...AND WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...EXPECT TSRA COVERAGE TO BE RATHER
SPARSE ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WHILE REMAINING
MOUNTAIN AREAS SEE ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS. BY EARLY
EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO...POSSIBLY SPARKING A COUPLE TSRA ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. BY
MIDNIGHT...FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH ANY
CONVECTION PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAX
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE UPWARD WITH DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY LATE AFTERNOON. W-SW
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE
BY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS MANY AREAS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH SENDS ANOTHER WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FRONT ALLOWS FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF STILL TRYING
TO INDICATE POSSIBLE HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA CONTINUES INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. MODELS INDICATING
POSSIBLE WAA AIDING IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AS PAC NW TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. PASSING SYSTEM SENDS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON AMOUNT
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING MORE MOISTURE AND IS
PRINTING OUT MORE QPF ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OWNING TO A
COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY...WITH THE EC AGAIN WETTER THAN THE GFS AS IT IS
INDICATING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS OLD MEXICO MOVING INTO THE
REGION. AT ANY RATE...MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...CLOSER
TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. BY EARLY
EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS...WHICH MAY
BRING ISOLATED TSRA TO AREAS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER UNTIL 06Z.
MOST STORMS TODAY WILL BE HIGH BASED...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE TO0 LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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