Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 252136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
336 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

...Little Change in the Pattern Next 24 Hours...

A large area of upper level low pressure over central Wyoming will
drift slowly east tonight while a new low pressure area emerges over
the southwest United States.  The combination of the 2 features will
keep southern Colorado weather locked in a holding pattern for the
next 24 hours.  Cool, moist upslope flow, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will continue over the eastern slopes and
plains. Forecast models are showing the greatest coverage of showers
and storms over the far southeast plains again.  So, this area may
see the most activity through the overnight hours. The western
mountains and high valleys will see mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies with just some isolated showers or storms over the next 24
hours. Additionally, the San Luis Valley along with many of the
mountain areas will see temperatures at or below freezing again
tonight.  In the San Luis Valley, Alamosa and Monte Vista dropped to
25 last night while Waverly hit 28 degrees. In the Upper Arkansas
Basin, Climax hit 20, Leadville 19 and Buena Vista hit 34. Rosita up
in the Wet Mountain Valley hit 35 degrees last night and a site near
Divide up in Teller County hit 30 degrees. So, it was a pretty cold
night for many of the mountain and high valley areas. Tonight won`t
be quite as cold but it will still be at or below freezing in a lot
of the high country. A Freeze Warning is in effect for the San Luis
Valley again tonight from 4 am to 8 am Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

...Another round of rain and high elevation snow for the middle of
the week...

Tuesday night-Friday...Models coming into better agreement and are
painting another wet period across south central and southeast
Colorado, especially in the Wednesday through Thursday night
timeframe, as an upper low across southwestern Arizona Tuesday
night, slowly lifts north and east across the Four Corners and into
southwestern Wyoming through the day Friday. Models continue to
indicate abundant moisture starting to spread into western Colorado
through the day Wednesday within deep southerly flow aloft across
the region. Moisture continues to spread north and east across south
central Colorado Wednesday night and Thursday and into southeastern
Colorado Thursday night and Friday, and have adjusted pops to match.
Model soundings indicating deep moisture profiles with nearly
saturated conditions up to around H5, leading to the potential of
locally heavy rainfall, especially over and near the higher terrain.
Model qpf suggests 1 to 2 inches of liquid across south central
Colorado in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe, with a half to around
1 inch across the eastern mountains and immediate adjacent plains
and lesser amounts expected across the far southeast plains. This
system looks to be relatively warm with snow levels down to around
10K feet with the bulk of accumulating snow expected to be across
the higher peaks. With that said, could see an early season advisory
across the high mountain passes in the Wednesday night through
Thursday night timeframe.  With cloudy and moist conditions
expected, temperatures to remain well below seasonal levels through
this timeframe, with highs in the 50s and 60s across the lower
elevations, and mainly 30s and 40s across the higher terrain.

Saturday-Monday...Warmer and drier weather looks to be in the offing
for next weekend, as the upper low continues to lift north and east
across the Northern Rockies, with a more westerly flow regime
setting up across the region. Temperatures to slowly warm back to
seasonal levels through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

An upper low pressure area spinning over central Wyoming will drift
slowly east overnight.  A new low pressure area will emerge over the
southwest U.S. on Tuesday.  The 2 features will keep the weather
pattern over the flight area locked in a holding pattern over the
next 24 hours. Mostly cloudy skies, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue over the eastern half of the flight
area.  Over the western mountains and high valleys, skies will be
mostly clear to partly cloudy with just some isolated showers and
thunderstorms.  KCOS and KPUB, under cool, moist upslope flow across
the plains, will see primarily MVFR conditions with IFR possible at
times. KALS will be primarily VFR.


Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 8 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ069>071.



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