Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 160549
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1149 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST
GRIDS.  ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER/FOG COVERAGE ACROSS THE
PLAINS PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ACROSS THE
PLAINS...STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY BACKING WESTWARD INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR.  AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN STRATUS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  WEST
OF THE STRATUS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY WITH MOST SUNNY
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS HANGING ON UNTIL MIDNIGHT OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE.
OVER THE PLAINS...THE STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND
BANK UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.  MODELS ARE
STILL WANTING TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRATUS BUT
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE PLAINS.  IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT ON THE PLAINS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG.  WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY GENERATE AREAS OF FOG WHICH WILL PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ON AREA ROADWAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
NUDGE INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  INCREASED MOVING
OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ERODE ANY STRATUS AND FOG LEFT ON
THE PLAINS QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.  DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WHILE FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH...THOUGH DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OVER AZ
AND NM THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT. ACROSS COLORADO...VERY WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SOME
SHALLOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
FAIRLY WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MAX TEMPS WED WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD THU AS TROPICAL MOISTURE/REMNANT
CIRCULATION CREEP NORTHWARD THROUGH AZ/NM. WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT LOCALLY...EXPECT
ANOTHER RATER PALTRY CROP OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR THE NM BORDER. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR SEPT AS 700 MB TEMPS CHANGE LITTLE.

ON FRI...ODILE REMNANTS/MOISTURE FINALLY BEGIN TO IMPACT CO AS
PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVES INLAND. GFS FASTER AND STRONGER WITH
THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION...TRACKING AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
NORTHWARD FROM NM INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
FRI. ECMWF INITIALLY SLOWER BY 12 HRS OR SO WITH THE CIRCULATION
FRI MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO CATCH UP THE GFS BY FRI EVENING. EURO
SOLUTION KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NM
FRI...THEN SHUNTS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT
MORNING. NOT SURE WHICH SOLUTION TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT...SO
WENT WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE MOST LOCATIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT...WHICH
KEEPS POPS IN THE ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED RANGE WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MAX TEMPS COOL
SLIGHTLY FRI AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE. OVER THE
WEEKEND...WEST COAST TROUGH SPLITS WITH NORTHERN PORTION PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT WHILE SOUTHERN PORTION CUTS-
OFF AND REMAINS SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S./SRN CALIFORNIA
REGION. SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPS MOST AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...TOUGH TO RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KCOS AND KPUB...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN PLAINS. ALREADY
PRESENT OVER KCOS WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FEET. PATCHY STRATUS OVER
KPUB SHOULD THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS FALLING BELOW 1000 FEET.
ALSO INCREASING FOG AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. STRATUS/FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE MOST AREAS BY 16Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MAY EXTEND PAST 16Z
IN SOME AREAS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW


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