Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 300522
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1122 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

Currently...

Showers and thunderstorms have developed along and just east of the
s mtns at 2 pm. Most of the activity attm was just east of Pikes
Peak and se of the Spanish Peaks. Small hail has been observed with
some of the storms and MMRS was indicating hail up to 1 inch in the
strongest storms. Over the plains SBCAPE ranged from 500 to 1000
J/KG with a few pockets of higher amounts. Shear was about 25knts.
SPC has added areas into marginal risk.

Rest of today into tonight...

HRRR has been pretty accurate so far. TSRA has developed over the
Pikes Peak region and expect it to increase in coverage as it moves
ESE across the plains the rest of this afternoon. Some gusty winds
and hail will be possible, with some marginally svr hail pssbl per
latest SPC MCD. One thing of note is the guidance has been pretty
consistent on showing another round of some convection coming off
the mtns later this afternoon, along with convection developing over
the plains. Likewise, expect a busy late afternoon and evening over
the plains with respect to convection. With the marginal CAPE values
and some shear, a few of the storms will be strong with a marginally
svr storm or two possible.

Convection will last into the late evening, but expect the brunt of
it to be over with by midnight.

Little  if any precip will occur west of the southern mtns.

Tuesday...

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are likely. cyclonic NW
flow will continue aloft with weak usplope flow. LLVL moisture will
linger and we will once again see CAPE values similar to today along
with modest shear. Storms will develop over the mtns early in the
afternoon and move slowly southeast during the latter afternoon time
period. A few of the storms will be strong with one or two
marginally svr cells possible.

max temps should be 1-2F warmer than today with highs around 80 on
the plains and 70s valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

Relatively active conditions are anticipated during the longer
term with primary meteorological issues temperatures, pops/qpf,
winds, and the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms as
well as locally heavy rainfall at times.

Longer range forecast model soundings, PV analysis and computer
simulations indicate varying degrees of upper ridging will prevail
over the forecast district from Tuesday night into Thursday night
in advance of an upper trough moving across the region from Friday
into Saturday with upper ridging redeveloping over southern
Colorado from Saturday night into next Monday.

The combination of upper disturbances interacting with north-northeasterly
surface surges and surface boundaries over southern Colorado will
allow isolated to scattered primarily afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms each day of the longer term.

At this time, it appears that the highest potential of more
widespread precipitation activity over the forecast district
during the longer term should be noted Tuesday evening and then
from later Friday into the weekend, while the highest potential
for more widespread stronger to severe thunderstorms(generally favoring
eastern sections) should be experienced from Friday afternoon
into Friday night and then again from Sunday afternoon into Monday
night(with the Monday afternoon into the Monday night storms
being the most aggressive at this time).

Overall, late May to early June minimum and maximum temperatures
are expected to run near climatological averages during the longer
term in combination with generally low-grade gradient winds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

A few passing showers will have minimal impacts at KCOS and KPUB
through 09z tonight. Expect VFR conditions through Tuesday early
afternoon with light winds at all three terminals. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop by Tuesday afternoon and
will likely impact KCOS and KPUB through the evening hours. There
is less certainty at KALS, but a thunderstorms may be possible
through the afternoon.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MOZLEY



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