Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 011134 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
634 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

A very chilly morning is underway across the region.  As of 2 AM,
temperatures have fallen into the upper 20s in most locations.  As
the surface high continues to settle south, temperatures will fall
further, especially where/when winds become calm for a period of
time. The lowest temperatures should occur just before sunrise, with
most areas dropping into the low to mid 20s.

High pressure will continue to drop southeast through the day today,
allowing surface winds to veer from east/northeast to southeast.
Temperatures will recover nicely given the cold start, with highs up
in the upper 40s and low 50s.

Breezy conditions will continue tonight, particularly over the
western half or so of the CWA, with a steady south wind around 10-12
MPH, with a few gusts in the 15-20 MPH range.  Lighter winds over
the eastern CWA will allow temperatures to again drop below
freezing, with warmer readings in the mid and upper 30s across the
west.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

Sunday will bring another windy and somewhat warmer day, with
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s east to mid 60s across the
western part of the forecast area.  South winds with gust as high as
25 MPH at times, with the highest gusts across southeastern Kansas
and western Missouri.  Given the windy conditions, warmer
temperatures, and slow moisture return (afternoon RHs in the 20-30
percent rage), elevated fire weather conditions are likely over
portions of the CWA.

A slow moving frontal boundary will begin to approach the region
from the northwest on Monday, with an area of rain and isolated
thunderstorms expected to move into the forecast area late Monday
afternoon into Monday night.  Rain should overspread the entire area
Monday night into Tuesday morning, with occasional
showers/thunderstorms continuing through much of the day on Monday.

Rainfall should be fairly healthy with this system, with a
widespread 0.75" to 1.5" expected.  The latest guidance is a bit
more progressive with this system, which has resulted in somewhat
reduced amounts vs previous forecasts.  The good news is that this
will mitigate the flood risk considerably.

Once rain ends late Tuesday into early Wednesday, seasonable and dry
weather is expected through at least Friday.  By Friday, the ECMWF
does attempt to bring a wave north into the area from Texas, while
the GFS remains dry.  Will just carry low end rain chances for now
given significant model differences.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours and beyond.
Surface high pressure will shift east of the area and light winds
will become more east southeast with time today. Tonight winds
will shift to southeast with an increase in mid level cloud cover.
The low levels will remain quite dry, as a result no rainfall is
expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan






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