Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 211658
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1058 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Rain and freezing rain continues to impact portions of south
central Missouri early this morning. Some area rivers and streams
have begun to flow out of their banks in this area as a result of
the continuing moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall, despite
the dry drought conditions. This is likely due to limited
filtration rates.

The cold air is still working its way across the region with
temperatures in West Plains still above the freezing mark. This
has kept the rain from freezing and allowed it to feed into the
waterways. Areal flood advisories and warnings have been issued
as a result.

With the cold air in place and the cold front continuing to move
to the southeast combined with cloudy skies today, temperatures
are not expected to climb much above the freezing mark. This will
be problematic this afternoon as another wave of rainfall moves
northeast out of Oklahoma and over the Ozarks later this
afternoon and overnight. This will bring the potential for
additional ice accumulation for much of the region. Will need to
monitor the depth of the cold air as we go through the day today.
While the lack of cloud ice will keep the precipitation from
changing over to snow, if the depth of the cold air becomes
sufficient, we may see a change over to sleet vs freezing rain at
some point.

Regardless of whether the precipitation is freezing rain or
sleet, will go ahead and issue a winter weather advisory for the
area from this afternoon through tonight. If the precipitation
remains freezing rain much of the area could see an additional
0.10 to 0.20 inches of ice accumulation. This would be added to
the glaze to a tenth of an inch already on elevated surfaces,
which will see little if any melting today with temperatures
remaining at or below freezing today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Freezing precipitation will be ongoing Thursday morning with
accumulating icing possible. There remains the potential for
roads to be impacted from ice however, with temperatures only
falling to around the 30 degree mark, the current road surface
temperatures may stay warm enough for the impacts to be limited to
bridges and elevated roads.

The good thing for Thursday is that temperatures will climb into
the middle to upper 40s through the late morning and into the
afternoon. However, this will bring additional rain and
thunderstorms chances to the Ozarks into Thursday night through
Friday morning which will likely exasperate the ongoing flooding.

While temperatures remain above freezing through Friday and into
the weekend, another system will bring a third round of rain and
storms to the area Friday night through Saturday evening. This
will continue to bring the potential for flooding to the area as
we start the weekend.

The good news is that this system will finally move through the
region and be replaced with high pressure by Sunday morning. This
will be the start of a period of dry, sunny and warmer weather as
well with models remaining dry into the middle of next week with
temperatures in the 50s to near 60 degrees.

There is some indication of another rainy period starting next
Wednesday but we will monitor the models through the weekend on
this.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1055 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

For the 18z TAFS, we will see another round of precipitation
lifting northward into southern Missouri this afternoon.
Temperatures have not budged much during the morning and do not
see much movement expected during the afternoon either. Thus, we
are expecting the precipitation to be in the form of freezing
rain. MVFR and IFR conditions are expected through much of the
period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CST
     Thursday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>105.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CST
     Thursday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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