Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 281101
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
300 AM PST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Improving weather conditions are expected today with a
quiet weather pattern and gradual warming occurring through the end
of the week and into the weekend.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night.

Trough axis remain west of the area this morning with a deeper
moisture profile across Mohave County. Radar shows light shower
activity across the northern half of the county with moderate showers
continuing across the southern portions of the county. 3-hr rain
amounts ending at 145 AM are fairly impressive in some locations
especially northeast of Bullhead City where three quarter to one and
a quarter inch rain amounts have been recorded. Looking back over
the past 12 hours, rain total accumulations of 1-2 inches were
common throughout the central and southern portions of Mohave
County. Measurable rain extended as far north as Littlefield in
northern Mohave County with the heavier rain as far north as the
Lake Mead Recreation Area. At 2 am, a web camera at the Hualapai
Ranger Station showed 2 or 3 inches of snow accumulations with radar
showing another band to the west of them headed east. A Winter
Weather Advisory continues there until 5 am local time. In addition,
a few rogue showers were showing up on radar in Clark county behind
the main moisture shield. IR satellite shows low clouds associated
with this activity extending westward into Nye county. The latest
HRRR is picking up on this and forecasting it to be short lived and
over by 4 or 5 am.

The trough axis will be east of the area by mid day today and shower
chances are expected to end for a mostly sunny and dry afternoon.
Dry, northwest then sets up across the area through Wednesday with a
weak area of low pressure forming over the southwestern states on
Thursday. This feature has little moisture and is expected to be a
non-factor.

Expect north winds to take over area wide today and continue through
Thursday. Enhanced north winds are likely Wednesday and Thursday
along the Colorado River Valley however they are not expected to be
significant. Temperatures will be headed in a positive direction
warming from around 7 degrees below normal today to near normal
Thursday.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday.

Dry mild weather will persist through the weekend into early next
week with the only concern being the potential for strong winds
across the southern Sierra and western Mojave desert zones Sunday
and Sunday night. The medium range models indicate the ridge will
migrate toward the central states ahead of a broad trough dropping
out of the Gulf of Alaska into the Pacific Northwest. This will
produce a moderate westerly flow aloft across our forecast area
Friday and Saturday then the trough axis is forecast to move across
northern California and northern Nevada Sunday. The GFS solution is
deeper with the trough than the ECMWF and would be favorable for
strong winds over the southern Sierra and Mojave Desert region.
Confidence is low in any wind impacts for now, but it is worth a
mention. A zonal flow or ridge develops behind the trough for fair
weather early next week. Temperatures will climb Friday into
Saturday then should remain several degrees above.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Diurnal SW winds under 10kts before a
weak cold front and northerly winds pushes into the area after 15Z
this morning. Northwest to northeast winds are expected to dominate
through much of the day at 5-15 kts with occasional gusts to around
20 kts.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Showers, low CIGS, and areas of reduced visibility are
possible in Mohave County this morning otherwise dry. Winds will
turn north as a cold front sweeps south across the region today.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotter activation is not expected.
Spotter are encouraged to report any significant weather according
to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Salmen
Long Term.............Adair

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:


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