Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KVEF 240306 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
806 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE
MOJAVE DESERT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SIERRA
AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK AND ABOVE
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. SOME OF THE
LIGHTER ACTIVITY IS MAKING IT FURTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF CLARK
COUNTY AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS RANGE ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS REPORTED. ELSEWHERE, TRACE TO LIGHT AMOUNTS WERE
NOTED. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA
OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AREA BY DAYBREAK.
TWEAKED THE FORECAST TO BETTER MATCH OVERALL TRENDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN VALLEY HAS
TURNED WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THEY WILL EVENTUALLY WORK THEIR WAY
BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH CIGS RANGING
BETWEEN 9-11K FEET. SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN
SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING MAINLY ACROSS INYO...NYE...ESMERALDA
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES WITH LESSER CHANCES SOUTH. ANY SHOWER/TSTORM
HAS THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS. AWAY FROM
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10-20KTS OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS AROUND 8-10K FEET. SCT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...313 PM PDT...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED MAIN
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE UTAH COLORADO BORDER. MAIN FEATURE OF
INTEREST THIS EVENING WAS STRONG VORT LOBE DIGGING DOWN OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE AND AREA RADARS SHOWED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE WANING AFTER SUNSET. THE VORT LOBE WILL SWING ACROSS
THE MOJAVE DESERT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TO THE DESERT AREAS. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE WHOLE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ENOUGH COOL
AIR ALOFT TO GENERATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND JUSTIFY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR AND NORTH OF LAS VEGAS.
A BIT OF DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO REDUCE POPS TO ZERO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL LINGER IN THE SAME
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. ONE THING OF NOTE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. THE
UNUSUAL LATE SPRING PARADE OF LOWS APPEARS TO BE COMING TO AN
END...AND WITH RISING HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT TWO WEEKS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

BROAD TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE
WILL BE RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND THAT IS WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING ANY CONVECTION WILL REMAIN. DID INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND ALSO
THE SOUTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS...BUT ANY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED. BY
FRIDAY...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO SATURDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK
TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL ADD TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL ALSO
HELP ENHANCE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT MOST
DESERT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INCLUDING LAS VEGAS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BRINGING SHIFTY WINDS TO THE TERMINAL WITH SPEEDS UP TO
20KTS. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 8-9K FEET OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE
OF ANY SHOWER INFLUENCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-
15 KTS OVERNIGHT. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EXPECTED AGAIN
SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS INYO...NYE...ESMERALDA AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES WITH LESSER CHANCES SOUTH. ANY SHOWER/TSTORM HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS. AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-
20KTS OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS AROUND 8-10K FEET. SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...SALMEN
PREV SHORT TERM...MORGAN
PREV LONC TERM...GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.