Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 311032
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
232 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...ALLOWING DRY AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR AREA WIDE BY TONIGHT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG MONDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MUCH OF THE
REGION OVER THE LAST 24-36 HOURS REMAINS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD FOG HAS NOT BEEN REPORTED. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY BRINGING RAPIDLY
IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING
IN FROM THE NORTH WILL ACT TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 15. PORTIONS OF OWENS VALLEY
AND THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MAY SEE WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS
BUT AT THE MOMENT LOOK TO REMAIN JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA. MORE
TYPICAL POST-FRONTAL NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP DOWN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME WINDS LOOK AS IF THEY WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW
LAKE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON THE
ISSUANCE OF ANY WIND ADVISORIES THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE WIND
MOST AREAS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLOW
WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST TUESDAY PROGGED TO AMPLIFY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. ON FRIDAY...RIDGE STARTS
TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST AS MODELS SHOW ATMOSPHERIC RIVER BRINGING
HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MAY START TO
SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA AS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SLIDES SOUTH, BUT MORE SO SATURDAY.
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM INHERITED PACKAGE SINCE
BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE HAVE TEMPERATURES SOME 10-12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE RECORDS WILL BE JUST OUT OF REACH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...RAIN CHANCES AND LOW CEILINGS (3-5K FEET)
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AROUND MID-MORNING. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 500-1500 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO SPREAD INTO A
LONG-LASTING BKN-OVC DECK. BY MID-LATE MORNING WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN SPEED...VARYING IN DIRECTION FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
AT 8-12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20KTS. THIS MAY CAUSE
RUNWAY CONFIGURATION CHALLENGES TODAY. MUCH BETTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE WORK WEEK.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...RAIN CHANCES...LOW CEILINGS (GENERALLY 3-5K FEET)...AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING. AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE BUT AREN`T LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. MUCH BETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE WORK
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN
OR SNOW.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............PIERCE

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