Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KVEF 222130
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA. IT WILL
BE DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ELSEWHERE. MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD WEST INTO THE MOJAVE
DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
SATELLITE SHOWS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY MARCH WESTWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA WITH LEADING EDGE AT THE EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY LINE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL.
MODELS SPREAD THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD AS FAR AS THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA IS DELAYED BY A DAY IN NOT REACHING MOHAVE COUNTY
UNTIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CAPE/LIFTED INDEX PARAMETERS VERY
MARGINAL FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PARAMETERS LOOK BETTER TO SUPPORT DEEPER
CONVECTION. FROM THE COLORADO RIVER WEST INTO EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
AND CLARK COUNTY WE LIKELY WILL JUST SEE MORE CUMULUS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

AS FOR THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BEST
PREFORMING GUIDANCE SUPPORTS GOING TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 110 DEGREES
FOR THE VEGAS VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SINCE FORECAST HIGHS
CONTINUE TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW OUR EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA
NO HEADLINE WILL BE ISSUED. FOLKS JUST NEED TO REMEMBER THOSE HEAT
SAFETY TIPS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
CONUS...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE
PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY. TROUGHING AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE RIDGING AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING A LITTLE MORE WEST AROUND TUESDAY. THERE
ARE A COUPLE PV ANOMALIES /SHORTWAVES/ THAT WILL ROUND THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND SUPPLY US WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. THE MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH...BUT THIS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS FAR OUT.

WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE. THE WAVE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY AND INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR NOW. THIS COULD BE A CASE WHERE WE SEE GOOD
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONTINUES MONDAY AS THE WAVE
IS STILL AROUND THE REGION. COULD SEE A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE DAY
AND NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THOUGH...AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
SOUTHWEST AND SUBSIDENT FLOW MAY WORK IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME
GUIDANCE LINGERS THE MOISTURE HOWEVER...SO WILL CONTINUE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ALL DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TREND DOWN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER SUNDAY I MAY BE TOO WARM ON TEMPS...BUT DID NUDGE DOWN
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR MONDAY. IF THE MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS LINGER...FORECAST TEMPS COULD BE TOO WARM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THE WIND SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MORE
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE GOING
MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER 02Z. AN EASTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER 21Z WEDNESDAY.
SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6-11 KTS. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AFFECTING TERMINALS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER OVER ARIZONA WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST
ARIZONA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST INTO THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE PLATEAUS OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. GUSTY SOUTH SURFACE
WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE UP THE OWENS VALLEY AND IN
ESMERALDA/CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING. SIMILAR SOUTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

PIERCE/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.