Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
FXUS65 KVEF 282205
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
300 PM PDT FRI OCT 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...An unsettled weekend is in store for the region as two
systems move through, bringing chances of showers and gusty winds to
much of the area. Temperatures will cool to near or slightly below
average early next week before gradually warming to slightly above
average by the end of the week.
.SHORT TERM...through Sunday night.
A weakening shortwave trough was moving into Nevada this afternoon
with areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms. This feature will
continue to trek east/northeast this evening with perhaps a few
lingering showers mainly east and north of Las Vegas. The area will
be between systems later tonight and much of Saturday, then some
moisture looks to sneak up from the south Saturday afternoon and
night ahead of the next system. While lift will be weak, it looks
like enough moisture for a slight chance of showers over mainly the
higher terrain. The trough will move across California Sunday
leading to a chance of showers across mainly Inyo County and the
southern Great Basin. Precipitation amounts are expected to be
fairly light overall. The main impact from this system will be
strong south/southwest winds. It appears that at least a few zones
will probably need wind advisories if current model trends hold.
With the passage of the trough axis over the Sierra late Sunday,
this is a favorable pattern for strong downslope winds along the
Eastern Sierra Slopes and I issued a high wind watch there. Models
at this time are not really bringing the strong winds down into the
Owens Valley so I left that zone out of the watch. Any precipitation
chances will end fairly quickly Sunday evening as the shortwave
continues to weaken and move northeast out of the area.
.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.
Medium range models bring a Pacific storm system to the northern
California coast Monday then have the trough split into two systems
on Tuesday, one weakening as it moves into the northern Great Basin
and the other sinking south into the southern Great Basin and Mojave
Desert region. The southern system is forecast to become a closed
low over northern Baja Wednesday before getting nudged eastward
Thursday and Friday. Overall, not a bad looking week coming up with
periods of mainly high clouds, slightly cooler but still above
normal temperatures and light winds.
.AVIATION...For McCarran...Lower CIGs in showers expected through
about 22Z before sky conditions improve. Gusty southwest winds 15 to
25 knots through the afternoon before decreasing to around 10 kts
this evening. Quiet weather conditions Saturday with wind impacts
expected on Sunday.
For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...A storm system will continue to move through the region
today with lowered CIGs and areas of rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms to portions of Clark, Lincoln and Mohave counties
through this afternoon. Expect mountain obscurations with mechanical
turbulence through sunset.Improving conditions tonight with quiet
weather Saturday. Strong winds are expected to impact portions of
the area Sunday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Two storm systems will affect the
area through this weekend, which may produce significant
precipitation in the Sierra and strong winds in the southern Great
Basin and Inyo County on Sunday. Spotters should report significant
weather according to standard operating procedures.
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