Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 161119
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
319 AM PST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty north winds will spread across the region today
and tonight as a cold front moves through. The front will also bring
some light showers to mainly central Nye and Lincoln Counties.
Cooler temperatures can also be expected across the area through the
weekend. High pressure will result in dry conditions and a warming
trend Monday and Tuesday.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night.

An upper trough and associated cold front will move across the area
today and tonight. Energy will become split during this period with
the best dynamics and moisture dropping south of the area near Baja
and also north over northern Nevada and Utah. There should be enough
moisture and lift for a chance of showers over mainly central Nye
and Lincoln Counties today and eastern Lincoln County this evening.
Some light showers cannot be ruled out over the Spring Mountains and
Sheep Range this afternoon and I kept chance pops in the forecast.
Still expecting strong north winds behind the cold front to spread
south and east across the forecast area today and tonight and the
inherited Wind Advisories still look reasonable. We will need to
evaluate the need for a wind advisory down the Colorado River Valley
Sunday but those types of winds may be isolated to mainly the
Laughlin and Bullhead City area. Any precipitation associated with
this system should be east of the forecast area by late this evening
so dry conditions are forecast for overnight through Monday night as
high pressure gradually nudges into California. Cooling is expected
today through Sunday due to the influence of the trough and cold
front, with some warming for Monday.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.

The focus of the long term will be yet another trough digging
through the western states, not unlike the trough in the short term.
Gusty winds, and very isolated precipitation chances can be expected
late-week.

Brief ridging will take over Tuesday, leaving most of the area with
calmer winds and above average temperatures as the next trough comes
ashore to the Pacific Northwest. This trough will dig down through
Idaho and Utah, before slowing its progression as it begins to close
off somewhere in the Southwest US. While the initial track is
favorable for winds and unfavorable for moisture and precipitation,
it could begin to tap into some moisture and wrap it into the region
over the weekend if it does indeed close off and linger. Expect at
least some breezy to locally windy conditions Thursday followed by
below-average temperatures to end the week.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light and diurnal winds will continue
through much of today, with wind speeds less than 7 kts. A cold
front will bring gusty north to northwest winds beginning 23-01Z
today with gusts up to 25 kts at times through tonight. BKN-OVC
clouds near 20 kft early this morning will lower to as low as 10 kft
later this morning. Clouds will move to the southeast of LAS later
tonight or early Sunday morning.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light and diurnal winds will continue through early
this morning. Gusty north winds will begin to move through the
region late morning across our NW region primarily impacting BIH
with wind gusts up to 30-35 kts. Increasing north winds will move
through other regional airports by 00-02Z today with general gusts
up to 20-30 kts. CIGS will decrease with the associated wind shift
and frontal passage lowering to 5-10 kft in some locations. Gradual
clearing will take place from northwest to southeast later today
through tonight.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...North winds are expected to begin Saturday and
linger into Sunday as another cold front moves across the region.
Fire danger will be enhanced again down the Colorado River Valley
but could be mitigated somewhat by cooler temperatures. Spotty Red
Flag conditions are also likely in the Sierra, mitigated somewhat by
marginal minimum relative humidity values.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Harrison
Long Term...Steele
Fire Weather...Outler

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