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FXXX12 KWNP 230032

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Feb 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels due to a C4/1f flare at 22/1327 UTC
from Region 2638 (N19E35, Dso/beta). The region appeared to develop some
intermixed polarities; however the spots were present within the primary
bipolar field and therefore, the region remained in a relatively simple
magnetic configuration. The region decreased in number of spots, but was
otherwise little changed. We still await updated coronagraph imagery to
determine if a CME was associated with this flare, and if so, to
determine if there was any Earth-directed component.

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares all three days (23-25 Feb).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels all three days (23-25 Feb), with a chance for high
levels on days two and three. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a mildly disturbed and enhanced
environment, likely due to CH HSS proximity. Total IMF strength
increased and reached 6 to 8 nT. The Bz component began the period in a
prolonged southward direction until about 22/0430 UTC; after which it
shifted into a more variable and less pronounced orientation. Solar wind
speed increased to about 465 km/s early in the period, before it began a
slow decline to end the period at speeds around 400 km/s. The phi angle
was primarily in a positive sector (away from Sun).

Solar wind speed is anticipated to increase on day one (23 Feb) as the
south flank of the positive polarity CH HSS is likely to connect with
Earth. The WSA-Enlil model suggests solar wind speed increases up to
500-550 km/s. Solar wind speed is expected to begin decreasing on day
two (24 Feb) and decrease further on day three (25 Feb) as the CH HSS
rotates away from a more favorable, geoeffective position.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field responded with active levels during the
22/0000-0300 UTC synoptic period in likely response to the prolonged
period of favorable IMF orientation. The geomagnetic reactions decreased
to quiet and unsettled levels the remainder of the day under the less
favorable solar wind regime.

The geomagnetic field is expected to respond with quiet to active
levels, and a likely isolated period of G1 (Minor) storming, on day one
(23 Feb) in reaction to increasing solar wind speed of the CH HSS. Day
two (24 Feb) is expected to experience decreasing responses of primarily
quiet to unsettled conditions, with an isolated period of active
conditions likely; as elevated solar wind speed begins decreasing. Quiet
to unsettled levels are expected on day three (25 Feb) as CH HSS
influences wane further. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.