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000
FXXX12 KWNP 291230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Jul 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a
C2/1f at 28/1410 UTC from Region 2125 (S13E39, Dao/beta). Slight growth
and penumbral development was observed in the intermediate spots of
Region 2126 (S09W21, Esc/beta-gamma) and the trailing spot of Region
2125. Growth was also observed in Region 2127 (S08E57, Dkc/beta-delta)
which appears to have a delta separating the northern and southern
portions of the consolidated spot mass. Newly numbered Region 2130
(S09E74, Dao/beta) began rotating onto the east limb and appears to have
large trailer spots associated although further analysis will be
required as it comes into view throughout the next 24 hours. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for
M-class flaring (R1-Minor) for the forecast period (29-31 Jul).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels (Below
S1-Minor) for the next three days (29-31 Jul).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, were indicative
of coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence. Solar wind speeds
increased to a high of 455 km/s at 28/1327 UTC before a very gradual
decrease to speeds near 345 km/s at the end of the period. Total field
reached an initial maximum of 11 nT at 28/1200 UTC before leveling out
between 2 nT and 4 nT around 28/1830 UTC and remaining there for the
rest of the period. Bz fluctuated between +7 nT and -6 nT. The phi angle
was predominately negative (towards) during the period.

.Forecast...
Enhancements in solar wind parameters caused by the onset of a
geoeffective CH HSS are expected to persist through midday on day one
(29 Jul) and slowly diminish thereafter. A return to nominal conditions
is expected by days two and three (30-31 Jul).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to CH HSS
influence.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled
levels through day one (29 Jul) as CH HSS effects persist.  A return to
mostly quiet conditions are expected on days two and three (30-31 Jul).