Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 210031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Nov 21 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low with a spotless disk. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low all three days (21-23 Nov).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was moderate to high with a maximum
flux of 3,310 pfu at 20/1820 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
was at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be moderate to high
on day one (21 Nov) and high levels are anticipated for days two and
three (22-23 Nov) due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow solar wind regime
followed by onset of a CIR ahead of an isolated positive polarity CH
HSS. Total IMF strength was 1 to 4 nT until after 20/1400 UTC, when the
IMF strength increased and reached 15 nT near 20/2330 UTC. The Bz
component underwent mainly weak deviations most of the period before it
underwent brief and intermittent southward direction shifts after
20/1600 UTC. Solar wind speed was about 330-350 km/s, before it
increased to near 430 km/s by periods end. The phi angle was primarily
positive (away from Sun).

.Forecast...
Total IMF strength is likely to remain enhanced into day one (21 Nov)
due to CIR passage; while solar wind speed is expected to increase
further due to CH HSS onset. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain
elevated into day two (22 Nov) as CH HSS influences continue, before
declining on day three (23 Nov) as the CH HSS begins rotating from a
geoeffective position.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active
period at the end of the day.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with active periods
likely, and a chance for G1 (Minor) storming on day one (21 Nov) due to
CIR passage and CH HSS onset influences. Quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected with an isolated period of active conditions likely on day
two (22 Nov) as CH HSS effects continue, while total field strength
weakens. Day three (23 Nov) is expected to respond with quiet to
unsettled conditions as CH HSS influences wane.



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