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FXXX12 KWNP 011230

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Dec 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2458 (N09W43, Cai/beta)
produced the strongest flare of the period, a C3/Sf at 01/0810 UTC.
AIA/193 imagery showed darkening in the corona that suggests an
associated coronal mass ejection (CME) may have accompanied the flare.
Further analysis of any potential CMEs will be conducted once additional
coronagraph imagery becomes available.

Region 2458 exhibited sheer and separation near its leader spot and
minor dissipation was observed near the trailer spot. Region 2457
(N12W72, Hax/alpha) decayed almost entirely in the past 24 hours. Region
2459 (N04W14, Cro/beta) underwent minor development, adding two new
spots. All other regions were either stable or in slight decay.

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for
C-class flares over the next three days (01-03 Dec).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout
the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on day one (01 Dec) with moderate to high levels on days
two and three (02-03 Dec) due to enhanced winds from a positive polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to persist at background levels for the forecast

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated the influence of a positive polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Elevated wind speeds were
observed throughout the period with winds ranging from around 550 km/s
to 420 km/s. A gradual decline in speeds was observed until around
01/0700 UTC when an increase to around 500 km/s took place. Accompanying
this increase was a temporary enhancement in density and total magnetic
field strength (Bt) to around 7 nT. Bz was variable between +4 / -3 nT
through most of the period before becoming mostly southward around
01/0940 UTC with a maximum deflection of -6 nT at 01/1041 UTC. Phi was
was predominantly positive (away) with a brief transitions to negative
(towards) from around 01/0650 UTC to 01/0930 UTC.

Solar wind conditions are expected to continue at elevated levels
through early on day one (01 Dec) as CH HSS conditions persist. By day
two (02 Dec), solar wind conditions are expected to trend towards
background levels as CH HSS effects diminish. Day three (03 Dec) is
expected to see the solar wind environment at near nominal levels.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled under the influence of a

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled with
isolated active periods on day one (01 Dec). A slight chance exists for
G1 (Minor) storm levels on day one (01 Dec) due to possible prolonged
periods southward Bz with enhanced wind speeds from the CH HSS. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on day two (02 Dec) as CH HSS effects
wane. Day three (03 Dec) is expected to observe mostly quiet conditions
as nearly nominal solar wind conditions return. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.