Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 190031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Jan 19 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2625 (S00W07, Cao/beta)
developed a trailer spot, while Region 2626 (N07E03, Hax/alpha)
exhibited slight decay, losing its recently formed trailer spot. Neither
region produced flare activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a slight
chance for C-class activity, all three days (19-21 Jan).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal
to moderate levels on day one (19 Jan) due to electron redistribution as
a result of CIR effects. Moderate to high levels are expected on days
two and three (20-21 Jan) following high solar wind speeds associated
with the positive polarity CH. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a
CIR followed by the onset of the anticipated positive polarity CH HSS.
Shortly after 18/0100 UTC, the solar wind speeds began to rise,
eventually reaching a peak near 630 km/s. Total field strength increased
to near 18 nT, but gradually recovered to near 8 nT around 18/1400 UTC.
The Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection to -13 nT and was
variable throughout the period. The phi angle remained positive.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on day one (19
Jan) due to continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar
wind speeds near 650-700 km/s are possible due to CH HSS effects (speeds
based on STEREO PLASTIC data and recurrence). Conditions are expected to
remain enhanced through days two and three (20-21 Jan).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS
effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active, with
isolated periods of minor storming (G1-Minor) likely on day one
(19 Jan), due to continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. A
gradual return to quiet to active conditions is expected on days two and
three (20-21 Jan) as CH HSS influence begins to subside.


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