Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 200031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Oct 20 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels this period. Region 2192 (S13E43,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a long duration X1/Sn flare at 19/0503
UTC, which was the largest event of the period. SDO/AIA imagery of the
event suggested that the bulk of the ejecta was reabsorbed or directed
well south and east of the Sun-Earth line. SOHO/LASCO coronagraph
imagery confirmed what was observed from the SDO/AIA spacecraft as no
obvious CME was detected associated with the X-flare.

Region 2192 also produced multiple mid-level C-class flares over the
past 24 hours. This Region remained the largest, most productive and
magnetically complex region on the visible disk and continued to exhibit
a growth trend this period. Over the past 24 hours, Region 2192s large
trailer spot developed a delta magnetic configuration.

New Region 2193 (N05E10, Cro/beta) was numbered this period but was
otherwise unremarkable. The other spotted regions on the disk were
stable.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity and a slight chance for X-class (R3 or
greater) flare activity over the next three days (20-22 Oct). Region
2192 is expected to be the likely source of any subsequent major flare
activity.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
reaching a peak flux of 272 pfu at 19/1905 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (20-22 Oct). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux has a slight chance of reaching S1 (Minor) solar
radiation storm levels over the next three days (20-22 Oct) due to the
potential for major flare activity from large and complex Region 2192.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a nominal solar wind regime.
Solar wind speeds averaged about 425 km/s through the period while IMF
total field values varied between 2-10 nT through about 19/0600 UTC when
the field became steady at 8-11 nT. The Bz component varied between +4
to -5 nT through about 19/1700 UTC when its variation became more
pronounced rotating between +9 to -8 nT. The phi angle was predominately
in a positive (away) solar sector throughout the period with a brief
transition to a negative (toward) solar sector between 19/0300-0400 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels through
late on day one (20 Oct). Solar wind parameters are expected to become
slightly enhanced late on 20 Oct and persist through days two and three
(21-22 Oct) due to the onset and subsequent influence of a positive
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with high
latitude active to minor storm periods associated with periods of
southward Bz.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
with a chance for isolated active intervals early on day one (20 Oct)
due to periods of southward Bz. This will be followed by the onset of a
positive polarity CH HSS late on 20 Oct. Quiet to active levels are
expected for the remainder of 20 Oct and through days two and three
(21-22 Oct) due to CH HSS influences.


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