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FXXX12 KWNP 171231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Dec 17 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels. Region 2242 (S17E05,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced two M-class events, including an M1 flare
at 17/0110 UTC and an M8/2b flare at 17/0451 UTC, which was the largest
event of the period. The M8 flare had associated Type II (est speed 910
km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, as well as a 320 sfu Ten centimeter
radio burst. Lack of LASCO coronagraph imagery is making analysis
difficult, but initial indications suggest the majority of the ejecta
from the coronal mass ejection (CME) has a mostly southerly trajectory,
just off the Sun/Earth plane. Early speed estimates indicate
approximately 650 km/s, which would put an estimated arrival at Earth on
or about 21 Dec. Further analysis will be accomplished as more data
becomes available.
Region 2242 continued to exhibit signs of growth as well as separation
in the leader spots while maintaining its delta configuration across an
east-west polarity inversion line.

Region 2241 (S09E11, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced an M1 flare at 17/0150 UTC
as well as several C-class flares during the period. This region also
exhibited growth as well as some consolidation in its leader spots. The
remaining spot groups were either stable or showed signs of decay.

Solar activity for the next three days (17-19 Dec) is likely to be
moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) as Region 2242 continues to grow in
areal coverage as well as maintain its complex magnetic structure.
Region 2241 could also produce an isolated M-class event as it has also
continued to grow and remain magnetically complex. There is also a
slight chance for an isolated X-class event (R3-Strong) during the
forecast period, mainly from the same regions.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at
background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the forecast period (17-19 Dec). The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below
S1-minor) for the forecast period (17-19 Dec) although there is a slight
chance for a proton producing solar event from Region 2242.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind parameters, measured at ACE, were indicative of a return
to normal ambient background levels. Solar wind speeds decreased from
initial values between 460 km/s and 480 km/s to end of period speeds
near 400 km/s. The total field remained steady between 4 nT and 6 nT
while the Bz component fluctuated between +5 nT and -7 nT. Phi angle was
in a primarily positive (away) orientation for most of the period.

Solar wind conditions are expected to remain at normal ambient
background levels for the forecast period (17-19 Dec).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled (below
G1-Minor) for the next three days. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.