Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 251230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Oct 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels this period.  Region 2192 (S12W27,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a long duration X3/3f flare at 24/2141
UTC as well as a long duration C9 flare at 25/0808 UTC, which were the
largest events of the period.  Region 2192 exhibited penumbral growth in
its leader spot area with umbral consolidation in its trailer spot area,
and persists as the most threatening region on the visible disk.  Minor
growth was observed in the trailer spot area of Region 2195 (N08E40,
Dso/beta) and the other regions on the disk were either stable or in
decay.  A narrow coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the X3
flare was observed in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 25/2148 UTC but
was directed well south of the Sun-Earth line.  No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed this period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be moderate (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) with
a chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flare activity over the next three
days (25-27 Oct) with Region 2192 being the likely source.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels,
reaching a maximum value of 6244 pfu at 24/1545 UTC.  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels over the next three days (25-27 Oct).  There is a chance for
a greater than 10 MeV proton event at or above the S1 (Minor) solar
radiation storm level over the next three days (25-27 Oct) as Region
2192 rotates into an increasingly threatening position on the solar
disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS) influence.  Solar wind speeds decreased from initial
values near 440-470 km/s to end-of-period values near 400 km/s.  IMF
total field values were steady near 4-6 nT and Bz reached a maximum
southward component of -5 nT, and was predominately southward throughout
the period.  The phi angle was steady in a positive (away) sector
throughout most of the period but began to transition to a negative
(toward) sector after 25/0900 UTC, likely marking the end of CH HSS
effects.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to return to
near-background levels over the next three days (25-27 Oct) with a
possible bout of southward Bz on day three (27 Oct) due to a solar
sector boundary crossing (SSBC).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to continued
weak CH HSS influence.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day
one (25 Oct) due to waning CH HSS effects.  Quiet to unsettled
geomagnetic field activity is expected on day two (26 Oct) followed by
quiet to active activity on day three (27 Oct) due likely SSBC effects.



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