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FXXX12 KWNP 050031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Aug 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2396 (S18E42, Dai/beta), continued
to show noticeable growth, and produced a B4 flare at 04/1841 UTC. This
region also produced a few optical sub-flares throughout the period.
Region 2394 (N11E01, Dai/beta-gamma) became the most complex spot group
on the disk, developing some mixed-polarity spots just ahead (SW) of the
leader spot, yet remained fairly inactive. The remaining numbered spot
groups were quiet and relatively stable over the past 24 hours.

An approximately 16 degree-long filament, centered near N32W17, was
observed lifting off in GONG H-Alpha imagery from approximately 04/1402
- 1645 UTC. Analysis of available LASCO and STEREO coronagraph imagery
indicated the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) had a trajectory
well north of the Sun-Earth plane. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
on LASCO imagery during the period.

Solar activity is likely to increase to low levels, with a slight
chance M-class flares (R1 Minor) over the next three days (05-07 Aug).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the
period with an observed peak flux of 1662 pfu at 04/1555 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels through
the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels for days one and two (05-06 Aug), then decrease to low
levels with the arrival of the anticipated co-rotating interaction
region (CIR) and subsequent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) on
day three (7 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected mostly ambient conditions. Solar wind
speeds continued to decrease, dropping from around 460 km/s to around
415 km/s by the end of the period. Bt remained consistent near 5 nT
while Bz fluctuated between -4 nT and +5 nT. Phi remained predominantly
in the negative sector (towards).

Ambient solar wind conditions are expected to continue on day one (05
Aug). Late on day two (06 Aug) solar wind speed, density, and total
magnetic field are expected to become enhanced with the arrival of
a CIR, ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS that is expected on day three
(7 Aug).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels under mostly ambient solar
wind conditions.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on
day one (05 Aug). An increase to unsettled to active levels is likely by
day two (06 Aug) with the arrival of the CIR, then increase to minor
(G1-Minor) storm levels on day three (7 Aug) with the arrival of the
anticipated CH HSS. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.