Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 011230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Oct 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period was a C6/Sf at
30/0306 UTC from Region 2172 (S09W69, Fao/beta-gamma). All other regions
on the disk were either stable or in decay. While several complex
regions remain on the solar disk, as well as multiple filaments, no
significant activity occurred during the period and there were no
Earth-directed CMEs detected during the period.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) are likely with a slight chance
for an X-class flare (R3-Strong) on days one and two (01-02 Oct). A
decrease to low activity with a chance for M-class flares is expected on
day three (03 Oct).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
A slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) exists
on days one and two (01-02 Oct) but chances wane on day three (03 Oct).
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to reach moderate to high levels for the next three days (01-03 Oct).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind measurements at the ACE spacecraft indicated solar wind
speeds average and steady near 400 km/s. The total IMF Bt remained
predominately between 6-8 nT while the Bz component varied between +5
and -7 nT. Phi angle was in a positive (away) sector for the majority of
the period however, some variations into the negative (toward) sector
were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect a continued agitated state
over the next three days (01-03 Oct), due to coronal hole effects
and multiple solar sector changes.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged between quiet to active levels due to
intermittent periods of extended southward Bz.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with a chance for active
periods all three days (01-03 Oct) due to the influence from coronal
hole high speed streams as well as solar sector changes.



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