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000
FXXX12 KWNP 040031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Sep 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels due to a C1 flare from Region 2407
(N16, L=145) just beyond the NW limb of the Sun. Region 2409 (N03E26,
Cro/beta) underwent slight decay and was inactive. The regions simple
bipolar magnetic field structure and intensity also weakened, suggesting
slow dissipation and decreased flare potential. However, the region lies
within a somewhat contorted section of a solar sector boundary, so a
slight chance for C-class flare remains possible. NOAA SWPC Region 2410
(S19E23, Bxo/beta) was assigned to a newly emerged spot group, but it
remained stable and inactive.

A prominence was observed in SDO/AIA-304 imagery, extending outward from
beyond the SE limb, before erupting beginning at around 03/0200 UTC. An
associated weak coronal mass ejection (CME) was first seen in
SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery at about 03/0324 UTC. Analysis indicated the CME
was well off the Sun-Earth line. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for
C-class flares primarily due to Region 2409.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
with a maximum flux of 578 pfu at 03/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels on day one (04 Sep), followed by normal to high
levels on day two (05 Sep) due to effects from the coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS) of CH95. Normal to moderate levels are expected to
return on day three (06 Sep).

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels all three days.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters
reflected the positive polarity CH HSS effects from CH95. Solar wind
velocities generally ranged from 400-450 km/s. Total magnetic field
strength was primarily between 5-8 nT, but reached 13 nT by the end of
the period. The Bz component was predominantly negative at around -2 nT
until approximately 03/2100 UTC, when it dropped to average near -7 nT,
eventually seeing a maximum southward deflection of -10 nT near the end
of the period. The phi angle remained positive throughout most of the
period.

.Forecast...
The solar wind and IMF are expected to remain enhanced into day one (04
Sep) due to CH HSS influences from CH95. Solar wind speeds are expected
to begin decreasing on day one and a solar sector boundary crossing
(SSBC) into a negative sector is also expected. Day two (05 Sep) is
expected to incur another SSBC into a positive sector, followed by an
increase in solar wind speeds as positive polarity CH97 becomes
geoeffective. Day three (06 Sep) is expected to remain under the
influence of CH HSS from CH97 or possibly connect with positive polarity
CH96 as CH97 effects wane.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels, with isolated periods
of unsettled conditions near the beginning and end of the summary
period, as Earths magnetosphere was agitated by CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled
levels, with isolated active periods, over the next three days (04-06
Sep) due to the various CH HSS influences.


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