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000
FXXX12 KWNP 310031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jan 31 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at moderate levels with a pair of M-class
flares originating from Region 2268 (S10W31, Fhc/beta-gamma).  The first
was an M2 flare at 30/0044 UTC followed by a long duration M1 flare at
30/0536 UTC.  Later in period, Region 2277 (N08E47, Fkc/beta-gamma)
produced an impulsive M2 at 30/1216 UTC.  No apparent Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available LASCO coronagraph imagery from these
events.

Regions 2268 and 2277 were also responsible for multiple C-class flares
during the period.  Consolidation was observed in Region 2271 (N17W58,
Dac/beta-gamma), while slight decay was noted in the intermediate areas
of Regions 2268 and 2271.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a chance for X-class flaring (R3-Strong or greater)
activity over the next three days (31 Jan-02 Feb). The most likely
source for any enhanced flare activity are Regions 2268 and 2277 due to
their large size and complex magnetic structures.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit remained slightly enhanced around 1 pfu.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast
to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (31 Jan-01 Feb)
with moderate to high levels possible on day three (02 Feb) due to
coronal hole influence.  There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV
proton flux reaching S1-Minor or higher levels for the forecast period
(31 Jan-02 Feb) as Region 2268 continues to rotate into a better
connected location.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to be agitated with solar wind speeds
ranging from 365 km/s to 466 km/s.  Total field generally ranged from 2
nT to 9 nT while the Bz component was variable between +7 nT and -6 nT.
Phi angle was predominately in a negative (towards) orientation.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced over the next
three days (31 Jan-02 Feb).  Additional agitations in solar wind
parameters are expected midday on day one through day two as a southern
polar coronal hole extension moves into geoeffective position.  Solar
wind speeds could potentially reach the 550 km/s to 650 km/s range.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
Quiet to minor storm levels (NOAA Scale G1) are expected on days one and
two (31 Jan-01 Feb) as the large extension off the southern crown polar
coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position. By day three (02 Feb),
mostly quiet to active conditions are expected.