Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 291231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 May 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2659 (N13W80, Dao/beta)
produced a C3/Sf flare at 28/1928 UTC, the strongest of the period.
Despite an increase in x-ray activity, the region continued a trend of
gradual decay and consolidation. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the
forecast period (29-31 May).  There is a chance for additional isolated
C-class flare activity on days one and two (29-30 May) as Region 2659
approaches the west limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
this period in response to enhanced geomagnetic field activity
associated with the influence of the 23 May CME. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has potential to reach high levels
over the next three days (29-31 May) in response to the enhanced
near-Earth solar wind environment associated with the passage of the 23
May CME.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background
levels throughout the forecast period (29-31 May).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected
continuously weakening enhancement from the 23 May CME. Total magnetic
field strength varied between 9-17 nT. The Bz component was mostly
positive after 28/1500 UTC with another rotation towards negative at the
very end of the period. Solar wind speeds were between 350-375 km/s,
with a gradual increase to 400 km/s during the later part of the
reporting period. Phi rotated to the positive sector after 28/2300 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually transition from the
trailing end of the 23 May CME back towards nominal conditions by the
end of day one (29 May). Background solar wind parameters are expected
on days two and three (30-31 May) with the return to a nominal solar
wind regime.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions due to the
weakening influence of the 23 May CME.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
day one (29 May) as CME effects wane. Generally quiet conditions are
expected for days two and three (30-31 May) with the return of a nominal
solar wind regime.



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