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FXXX12 KWNP 231231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Apr 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2651 (N12E10, Cao/beta) produced low
level B-class flare activity and appeared to decrease slightly in areal
coverage. Region 2653 (S09E50, Hax/alpha) also produced B-class flare
activity but did not show signs of decay or growth. An eruptive filament
located near N12E39 was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery at approximately
23/0526 UTC. An associated CME was observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery at 23/0600 UTC. Analysis is ongoing to determine if this CME
will have a geoeffective component.

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flare activity over the next three days (23-25 Apr).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a
peak flux of 7,466 pfu observed at 22/1805 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background values.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
over the next three days (23-25 Apr), with very high levels possible on
day three (25 Apr), due to sustained fast solar wind speeds from the
negative polarity CH HSS. No solar radiation storms are expected during
the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, were
indicative of the continued influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Solar wind speeds were steady between 700-750 km/s. Total field (Bt)
ranged between 4 and 9 nT, while the Bz component reached a maximum
southward deflection of -8 nT. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in a
negative sector.

Enhancements in the solar wind are likely to be observed over the next
three days (23-25 Apr) due to continued influence from the recurrent,
negative polarity CH HSS.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at active to G2 (Moderate) storm levels from
the influence of a strong, negative polarity CH HSS.

The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G2 (Moderate) storm levels
during the remainder of day one (23 Apr) due to very fast solar wind
speeds from the negative polarity CH HSS. G1 (Minor) storm levels are
likely on days two and three (24-25 Apr) as the CH HSS influence
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