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000
FXXX12 KWNP 101230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Mar 10 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at moderate (R1 - minor) levels.  Region 2002
(S18E44, Dac/beta-gamma-delta) produced four impulsive M1 events at
09/1358 UTC, 09/2028 UTC, 10/0026 UTC and 10/0408 UTC. Numerous C-class
activity was also observed from the region. Region 2002 continued to
grow in area, spot count and magnetic complexity. Region 1996 (N15W43,
Eai/beta-gamma) contributed to the periods activity with a pair of
C-class events, the largest a C3/Sf at 10/0747 UTC. The region continued
to exhibit penumbral growth in its large trailer spot. Two new regions
were numbered this period; Region 2003 (N06W05, Dro/beta) rapidly formed
on the disk while Region 2004 (S08E70, Cro/beta) rotated onto the disk.
All other spotted regions were stable with no significant changes noted.
No Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with M-class (R1 - R2
minor - moderate) flares likely including a slight chance for X-class
(greater than R3 - strong) activity for the next three days (10 - 12
Mar) in response to the development of Regions 1996 and 2002.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to
moderate levels for the first two days of the forecast period (10 - 11
Mar). By day three (12 Mar), electron flux is expected to increase to
moderate to high levels in response to coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS) effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels for the next three days (10 - 12 Mar).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Measurements at the ACE spacecraft observed a decrease in solar wind
speed for the first half of the period from 345 km/s at 09/1200 UTC to
271 km/s at 10/0000 UTC. The second half of the period saw a gradual
increase in speeds to about 335 km/s at 10/1200 UTC. The Phi angle
gradually rotated from a positive (away) to a negative (towards)
orientation from approximately 09/1900 - 2100 UTC where it remained
predominately negative. Bz ranged from +2 nT to -2 nT with a brief
period of -3 to -4 nT from 10/0728 - 0923 UTC. Bt ranged from 1 nT to 6
nT.

.Forecast...
Solar wind speed is expected to increase on day one (10 Mar) with the
onset of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. STEREO B data suggests
wind speeds could increase to about 500 km/s through days two and three
(11 - 12 Mar) as CH HSS effects persist.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The onset of the recurrent CH HSS described above is expected to bring
quiet to unsettled conditions for the next three days (10 - 12 Mar),
with a chance for active levels on day two (11 Mar).