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FXXX12 KWNP 271230

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Mar 27 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 2644 (N12E24, Dao/beta-gamma) produced
the strongest flare of the period, a C3 at 27/1112 UTC. Consolidation
was observed in the leader spots alongside penumbral growth in both the
leader and trailer spots. Alongside the growth, a small area of mixed
polarity spots near the trailer spot resulted in the gamma
classification of the region.

Emerging flux was observed in both the NW and SW quadrants. Region
numbers will be assigned if the newly developing spots persist. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance
for C-class flare activity throughout the forecast period (27-29 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period
with a peak flux of 8,330 pfu observed at 26/1710 UTC. A pronounced
decreased in flux was observed after 27/0000 UTC in response to
increased geomagnetic activity.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
steady at background levels throughout the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
levels on day one (27 Mar) with normal to moderate levels likely on day
two (28 Mar) due to a period of elevated geomagnetic field activity.
Moderate to high flux levels are expected on day three (29 Mar)
following an enhanced solar wind environment. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the
forecast period (27-29 Mar).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a
SSBC followed by an anticipated CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Total magnetic field strength and density values began increasing after
26/1900 UTC, with a peak of 19 nT observed at 27/0752 UTC. The Bz
component transitions from a mostly northward orientation to a mostly
southward orientation after around 27/0100 UTC. Solar wind speeds solar
increased from a steady 350-400 km/s to an enhanced state at around 550
km/s with pronounced increases observed after 27/0400 UTC. The phi angle
suggested the passage of a SSBC with a transition from the positive
sector to the negative sector between 26/2100-2200 UTC.

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the next
three days (27-29 Mar) due to the influence of a recurrent, negative
polarity CH HSS. Recurrence and STEREO-A data suggest solar wind speeds
in the 650-700 km/s range are likely during the passage of this feature.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field transitioned from a quiet state to G2 (Moderate)
storm conditions due to the onset of a CIR ahead of a negative polarity

The geomagnetic field is expected to continue to reach G1-G2
(Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms levels on day one (27 Mar). G2
(Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are again likely on days two and
three (28-29 Mar) as Earths near-space environment is expected to be
disturbed by the strongest portion of the negative polarity CH HSS. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.