Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 091819
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CST TUE FEB 09 2016

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS....WITH SUSTAINED SWLY SPEEDS
FROM 15-20 MPH NOW ANTICIPATED. SOME AREAS OF THE TX PANHANDLE MAY
SEE SUSTAINED SPEEDS FROM 20-25 MPH. THESE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR AMIDST TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S /10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE/ AND MIN RH VALUES FROM 8-13 PERCENT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE MID 20S ALONG AND JUST E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE FACT
THAT THE GUIDANCE HAS UNDERDONE THE WARMING AND DRYING ACROSS THIS
REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL AFTERNOONS...EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF AT
LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM FAR SE CO/SW KS SEWD
INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY
MATERIALIZE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS COULD TOP 20 MPH. MAIN FACTOR PRECLUDING THE
INTRODUCTION OF A CRITICAL THREAT AREA WITH THIS FORECAST IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND SPEED FORECAST AND THE POTENTIAL SHORT
DURATION WITH ANY ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS THAT DO OCCUR. IF CONFIDENCE
IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 MPH INCREASES WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST...A CRITICAL AREA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TX PANHANDLE.

..MOSIER.. 02/09/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST TUE FEB 09 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE D2/WED...WITH A GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN TROUGH
OCCURING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE EAST COAST AS A STRONG HIGH
DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD FROM ALBERTA/MANITOBA TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW GRADUALLY DEEPENS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND ADJACENT EASTERN NEW MEXICO.  10-20 MPH
WIND SPEEDS /WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS/ WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
BY MID-AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW 70S UNDER FULL
SUNSHINE.  SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM/DRY ANTECEDENT WEATHER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO CURED FUELS...AND THE ATTENDANT FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDDAY.  LOCALLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER FORECAST SURFACE
WINDS IN A GENERAL AREA FROM CLOVIS NM TO LUBBOCK TX.  GREATER
CONFIDENCE OF HIGHER SURFACE WINDS /ABOVE 20 MPH/ MAY NECESSITATE A
CRITICAL DELINEATION IN LATER OUTLOOKS...AND AN ELEVATED AREA HAS
BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST.

...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH THIS GRADIENT /AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS/
WILL BE LOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS.  NEVERTHELESS...RAINFREE
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST WEEK ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOCALLY TERRAIN-ENHANCED FLOW MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY ELEVATED
CONDITIONS THROUGH OUT THE DAY...PARTICULARLY IN VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES.  THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ELEVATED DELINEATION FOR THIS
FORECAST...BUT THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED IN THE EVENT THAT SURFACE
WINDS END UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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