Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 061829
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2016

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND FAR
WEST TX...

...PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ELEVATED RISK
AREA...INCLUDING A SLIGHT NWD EXPANSION ACROSS NERN CO TO ACCOUNT
FOR STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS WITHIN A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR CRITICAL AND ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS ON TRACK.

...SOUTH FL...
A DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE SRN FL
PENINSULA...AND WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 20S
AS TEMPERATURES HEAT INTO THE LOW 80S F. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR 10 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING AMIDST A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRECLUDING AN ELEVATED RISK DESIGNATION.

..ROGERS.. 05/06/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0323 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE LARGE MID-LEVEL WESTERN-CONUS CYCLONE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALONG THE EAST COAST...A LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO FILL...TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN WAVE
AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SFC...A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CO...WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE RIO
GRANDE. IN RESPONSE TO THE GREAT LAKES IMPULSE...A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY.

...PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN-CONUS CYCLONE...A
CORE OF ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERLIE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND
20-30 MPH WILL DEVELOP WEST OF A DRYLINE STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE
KS/CO BORDER SOUTHWARD TO THE TX BIG BEND. DEEP DIURNAL MIXING WILL
ENCOURAGE MIN RH VALUES AROUND 8-15 PERCENT WEST OF THE DRYLINE AS
WELL. IN TURN...CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN NM AND FAR WESTERN TX...WHERE DRY FUELS WILL
SUPPORT CRITICAL CONDITIONS. FARTHER NORTH...WHILE CRITICAL
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED HERE AS WELL...GREENER
FUELS SHOULD SUPPORT ONLY AN ELEVATED/LOCALLY CRITICAL THREAT.

...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI...
DRY NORTHWESTERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW MAY ENHANCE FIRE-WEATHER
CONCERNS SOME ON D2/SAT...AS SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH
COMBINE WITH RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. WHILE SOME ELEVATED
FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE REALIZED...THE POTENTIAL FOR ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF
AN AREA AT THIS TIME.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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