Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 241749
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/ERN NM...WRN TX PANHANDLE
AND S PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AZ...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY...

NO CHANGE IS NEEDED TO THE PRIOR OUTLOOK.

..SMITH.. 04/24/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0356 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFY THIS
PERIOD...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING MIDLEVEL FLOW AND JET STREAK REACHING
SRN CA BY 12Z SAT. A PRECEDING BELT OF SWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A
LEE SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER ERN CO. A LARGE AREA
OF PRESSURE FALLS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH A SFC LOW
EVENTUALLY BECOMING DOMINANT OVER UT EARLY SAT. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THIS
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN
ROCKIES/PLAINS.

...MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH...WITH 25-40 KT OF 700 MB
FLOW BECOMING COMMON BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE CENTERED OVER TWO AREAS ATTM.

/1/. OVER THE NRN AZ WWD TO THE CO RIVER VALLEY...SWLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-35 MPH /HIGHER GUSTS/...PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER UT.
DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD RH VALUES FROM 10 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO 15
PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NRN AZ. ANY SUBSTANTIAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER
00Z/SAT.

/2/. OVER CNTRL NM EWD INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE AND S PLAINS...A
LEE SFC LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER E-CNTRL CO...WITH AN
ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDING GENERALLY SWD OVER THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE TO THE PERMIAN BASIN. STRONG SWLY FLOW /20-25 MPH/ WILL
DEVELOP W OF THE SFC TROUGH...WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS ENHANCING
BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING/DRYING/WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
MID-80S TO PERHAPS LOW-90S F...YIELDING RH VALUES RANGING FROM 5-12
PERCENT.

SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL RISK AREAS...ELEVATED TO LOCALLY/SPOTTY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL STILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SERN AZ AND WRN NM. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE MARGINAL
/NEAR 20 MPH/ OVER THIS AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN INTO S-CNTRL WY. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICALLY
LOW RH VALUES.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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