Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 141943
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

An elevated area was added for a small part of central and northern
California for late Friday night.  Northerly low-level flow will
increase substantially in these areas very late in the period and
exceed 30 mph at times.  Meanwhile, surface RH values fall to around
30% in localized areas early Saturday morning despite a relatively
unfavorable time of day for falling RH values.  More widespread
elevated fire weather conditions are likely just beyond the end of
this forecast period (12Z Saturday).

Farther south, gusty offshore flow will continue across coastal
ranges of southern California, with occasional 40-50 mph gusts
amidst single-digit RH during peak heating hours.

For more information, see the previous discussion below.

..Cook.. 12/14/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017/

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will persist along the Pacific coast early on Friday.
By 00z, a shortwave trough is forecast to move over the Pacific
Northwest and dig south and east into the Great Basin overnight. At
the surface, low pressure will develop over the Great Basin and a
cold front will track south and east across the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Rockies and western Great Basin.

...Southern CA...

Dry conditions and gusty offshore winds are expected to persist into
Friday morning. Current forecast guidance indicates an offshore
gradient less than -5mb from LAX to DAG until the 15z-18z time
frame. The strongest winds likely will be in the mountains and
favored canyons and passes during this time. As such, a critical
area has been added to account for several hours of low RH and gusty
winds during the morning hours. By afternoon, the pressure gradient
will be rapidly weakening and a brief reprieve from offshore winds
is expected. RH recovery will still be poor in higher elevations
overnight, but in lower elevations, RH values in the 30-40 percent
range are possible Friday night.

...Portions of the Central/Southern Plains...

Dry conditions will persist across much of the Plains from southwest
NE and eastern CO into western KS, OK, TX and eastern NM. Some
occasionally gusty winds will be possible as a weak surface trough
develops southward in the lee of the Rockies. RH values from 15-25
percent will be common while sustained wind speeds of 10-15 mph with
occasionally higher gusts are forecast. Some spotty elevated fire
weather conditions are possible where stronger winds develop. A lack
of more widespread gusty winds will preclude delineation of any
areas at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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