Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 292036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292035
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-292230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1608
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SD ACROSS WRN/CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292035Z - 292230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM FROM ERN SD INTO CNTRL
MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND AND HAIL
THREAT.

DISCUSSION...SFC MAP SHOWS A TROUGH FROM NWRN MN INTO ERN SD AND
SWWD INTO WRN NEB BUT CONVERGENCE IS WEAK. HOWEVER...85-90 F
TEMPERATURES NOW EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL SD WITH MID 80S ACROSS
CNTRL MN WHERE STRONG HEATING PERSISTS. WHILE UPPER SUPPORT IS
CURRENTLY LACKING...VERY SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE N. IN
ADDITION...THE EXISTENCE OF COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND HEATING
IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MAXIMIZE LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST TEMPORARILY STRONG UPDRAFTS AS
SHEAR WILL NOT FAVOR ORGANIZATION. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
STORMS FORMING WITHIN THE SFC TROUGH BY 22Z FROM NERN SD INTO
MN...AND THEN DYING BY EARLY EVENING. HAIL MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY WITH
THE STRONGER CORES INITIALLY...THEN A THREAT OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS
BEFORE ACTIVITY CREATES OUTFLOW AND STABILIZES THE AREA.

..JEWELL/GUYER.. 08/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   44769953 45569781 46349580 47259375 47249310 46809247
            46199266 45639380 44929560 44289778 44089885 44159937
            44329966 44769953



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