Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 012221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012220
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-012315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1272
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR NERN MS...NRN/CNTRL AL...NRN/CNTRL
GA...SERN TN...WRN NC...AND FAR WRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382...

VALID 012220Z - 012315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG/GUSTY WIND THREAT CONTINUES IN
AND NEAR WW 382...THE INCREASINGLY MARGINAL SEVERE RISK WILL
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH...AND WW 382 WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 23Z.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVED SEWD ACROSS TN AND NRN AL/GA
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THEIR NW. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SEVERAL ONGOING CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDING ALONG AN
INSTABILITY GRADIENT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY FROM NERN MS TO
CNTRL AL/GA. WHILE MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG ESTIMATED BY RAP
MESOANALYSIS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW THESE STORMS
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY MOVE ESEWD WITH
TIME...LIMITED EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OWING TO WEAKER MID-LEVEL WINDS
WITH SWD EXTENT SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM ORGANIZING ON ANY MORE THAN
A BRIEF AND ISOLATED BASIS...WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG/GUSTY WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT. THEREFORE...WW 382 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE AT 23Z...AND NO ADDITIONAL WATCH APPEARS NECESSARY AT THIS
TIME.

..GLEASON.. 07/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   33608731 34248855 34508829 34098671 34108611 34378530
            35078481 35728396 35518321 34778293 32888378 32788460
            33048579 33608731




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