Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 050131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050130
KSZ000-050300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0830 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470...471...

VALID 050130Z - 050300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
470...471...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS WW 470 AND 471
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LEADS
TO A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN STORM INTENSITY.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS...ONE
ENTERING FORD COUNTY AND THE OTHER ENTERING RUSH COUNTY. MESH DATA
HAS INDICATED SEVERE HAIL WITH BOTH OF THESE STORMS FOR QUITE SOME
TIME WITH RECENT DATA SUGGESTING HAIL OVER 3 INCHES IN THE FORD
COUNTY STORM. THE RUSH COUNTY STORM MAY BE WANING A BIT WITH 9 KM
CAPPI...VIL...AND MESH ALL SHOWING A DOWNWARD TREND. HOWEVER...THE
UPDRAFT STILL APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH A
CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
FOR THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO. THE FORD COUNTY STORM HAS AN
IMPRESSIVE RADAR APPEARANCE AND IT IS ALSO KEEPING UP WITH IT/S
OUTFLOW...SUGGESTING A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT.
ADDITIONALLY...VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON DDC VAD INDICATES A NON-ZERO
TORNADO THREAT...PARTICULARLY DURING THE NEXT HOUR AS THE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD DECREASES AND THE LCL LOWERS.

EVEN WITH THESE ONGOING SVR STORMS...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE 00Z DDC AND AMA
SOUNDINGS WERE 6.9 AND 7.3 DEG C PER KM...RESPECTIVELY...WHICH DOES
NOT SUGGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LONG AFTER BECOMING ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...THE ESRL HRRR SUGGESTS THE FORD COUNTY STORM WILL CONTINUE
INTO NW OK.

..MOSIER.. 08/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   37020040 39050122 39059899 37029823 37020040




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