Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 291754

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.


As of 29/1500 UTC, a middle to upper level shortwave trough is
noted on water vapor imagery in the vicinity of 32N57W
supporting a 996 mb surface low centered near 31N57W. Gale force
winds are occurring from 28N-31N between 58W-64W with stronger
winds N of 31N. The low is forecast to move N of 31N, out of the
discussion area, this evening. Gale force winds are, however, to
be from 30N-31N between 45W-52W on 30/1200 UTC. Please see the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
02N20W to 01S24W. The ITCZ extends from 01S24W to 05S38W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is S of the
monsoon trough from 05S-06N between 08W-19W.



As of 1500 UTC, a squall line extends from E Texas near 32N94W
to the coast of Corpus Christi Texas near 28N97W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 30 nm of the squall line. Severe
weather was earlier reported near Houston Texas. A cold front is
inland about 90 nm W of the squall line, moving E. The remainder
of the Gulf of Mexico has 10-25 kt SE to S surface flow with the
stronger winds over the W Gulf W of 90W. In the upper levels, an
upper level trough is inland over New Mexico and Texas
supporting the surface front. An upper level ridge is over the
Gulf of Mexico with axis along 85W. Strong subsidence is over
the Gulf, while upper level moisture is over E Texas. Expect the
cold front to reach the Gulf this evening, with convection
within 120 nm E of front over the Gulf. Also expect the cold
front to extend from S Louisiana to NE Mexico in 24 hours with


As of 29/1500 UTC, the tail end of a cold front is over the
Leeward Islands from 20N61W to 18N63W. Scattered showers are
within 30 nm of the front. The remainder of the Caribbean Sea
has a relatively lax surface pressure gradient with 10-20 kt
tradewinds. Strongest winds are over the NW Caribbean. Scattered
showers are over the Windward Islands moving W within the
tradewind flow. In the upper levels, mostly zonal flow is over
the Caribbean. Upper level moisture is over the Windward
Islands, and strong subsidence is elsewhere. Expect in 24 hours
for the surface front to be E of the Leeward Islands. Also
expect the surface moisture over the Windward Islands to move W
towards the central Caribbean within the tradewind flow.


Presently mostly fair weather is over Hispaniola. Expect in 24
hours for E Hispaniola to have scattered showers within the
tradewind flow. Dry and stable air are noted aloft.


The primary focus for the SW North Atlc is the Special Features
low pressure area centered on a 996 mb low near 31N57W. See
above. A cold front extends S from 31N54W to 25N56W to 20N61W.
Scattered showers are within 180 nm E of front, N of 22N. In the
tropics, a surface trough extends from 08N45W to 01N46W, moving
W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough. Expect in
24 hours for the surface front to extend from 31N44W to 18N58W
with convection.

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