Text Products for FWS Issued by APX

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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FNUS73 KAPX 211016
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for North Fletcher...MIDNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
616 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on April 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will cross northern Michigan tonight.
Ahead of the high, mostly sunny conditions are expected at the burn
site today, with somewhat more clouds as we move through the
afternoon. West winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph, with gusts
around 25 mph this afternoon. Those winds will become northwest by
late afternoon. Humidity values bottom out at around 30 percent
late this afternoon. Winds will decrease toward sunset.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 53.
Min humidity........31 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 9 to 12 mph with gusts to around 26
                    mph.
Transport winds.....Northwest 21 to 26 mph.
Mixing height.......5100-6800 ft AGL.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Very good to excellent (1057.0-1527.0)
                    increasing to excellent (1586.0) late in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........11  21  24  31  32  33  37
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............44  45  48  49  49  50  50
RH..............43  40  34  33  33  31  31
20 ft wind dir..W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 ft wind spd..12  14  14  14  15  15  15
20 ft wind gust.21  24  24  24  26  26  26
Mix hgt (kft)...5.1 6.0 6.3 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.8
Haines index....4   4   4   3   3   3   3
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW
Transp wind spd.21  22  23  23  24  25  26
Vrate kt-ft.....1057130514491527158616451812
Ventrate Cat....VGD VGD VGD EXL EXL EXL EXL

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 25.
Max humidity........96 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 6 to 9 mph with gusts to around
                    24 mph early in the evening becoming light.
Transport winds.....Northwest 24 to 26 mph becoming north 8 to 16
                    mph early in the evening, then shifting to the
                    northeast around 6 mph overnight shifting to
                    the southeast 5 to 6 mph overnight shifting to
                    the south 6 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......6000-6400 ft AGL decreasing to 300-1700 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Very good to excellent (1443.0-1690.0)
                    decreasing to poor (15.0) early in the evening.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........41  53  59  42  17  6   2   5   8   8   8   8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............47  48  46  42  40  36  36  34  32  31  29  27
RH..............35  35  38  46  52  64  67  69  72  75  81  88
20 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  E   E   E   S   S   S
20 ft wind spd..12  12  12  7   7   7   3   3   3   2   2   2
20 ft wind gust.24  24  24  16  16  16  7   7   7   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...6.4 6.0 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Haines index....3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   NE  NE  SE  SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.26  24  16  13  9   8   6   6   6   5   6   7
Vrate kt-ft.....16901443274 142 73  53  24  19  17  15  18  22
Ventrate Cat....EXL VGD PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........24 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 12 mph
                    early in the morning.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 18 mph shifting to the southwest 21
                    to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-1900 ft AGL increasing to 5200-7100 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (34.0) increasing to very good to
                    excellent (1335.0-1752.0).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........8      1      2      16     35     40
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............26     30     44     54     60     63
RH..............96     78     47     34     26     24
20 ft wind dir..S      S      S      SW     SW     SW
20 ft wind spd..8      8      12     14     14     16
20 ft wind gust.12     12     17     22     22     24
Mix hgt (ft)....400    500    1900   5200   6900   6800
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Transport wind..S 9    S 12   S 15   SW 18  SW 23  SW 25
Vrate kt-ft.....34     62     291    964    1596   1732
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   GOOD   EXNT   EXNT

$$
Forecaster...JZ
Requested by...Nate Stearns
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411538.0/APX
.DELDT 04/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL stearnsn@michigan.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
