580
FXUS61 KCLE 010735
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
335 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will move through the area today. High pressure will build
into the region tonight and Wednesday behind the trough. Another
trough will move through the area on Thursday. High pressure will
return for Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There will be a downtrend in convection over the next several hours,
as the warm sector ahead of the incoming trough is fairly worked
over and rain is not able to sustain in the area. Next up, an area
of convection over Central Indiana will continue east ahead of the
trough and try to advect into the forecast area. There`s some
uncertainty on how far north any rain or thunder will get and just
have a sliver of likely PoPs for the southern forecast area. Behind
this round of convection there should be a brief period without rain
in the area. However, the main trough system will move through the
area this afternoon and could spark some isolated to scattered
showers and storms. Believe coverage will be on the lower side, if
this round from Indiana can sustain in the area and work over the
atmosphere one more time. But, if the area remains dry during the
late morning hours, then coverage could be a bit higher. The main
trough axis should be over the area this evening and continue east
tonight into Wednesday, allowing for dry conditions as high pressure
builds into the region. Residual low level moisture across the
region will allow for some patchy fog in spots for tonight into
Wednesday. Temperatures through the period will be generally
seasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The short term forecast period continues to be largely uneventful
heading into the Independence Day holiday. High pressure will be
over the region to start the period on Wednesday night. However, an
upper trough over northern Ontario will extend itself southeast for
Thursday and allow for a weak surface trough to move through the
region. There could be some showers and maybe a storm or two with
this feature on Thursday, but remain relatively unimpressed with the
setup, as the better synoptic support for convection should be north
of the border and the mean west to northwest flow should clamp most
of the moisture south. Temperatures will also just be near normal
and there may not be the extreme instability to get widespread,
diurnally-driven convection. The trough will exit for the Fourth of
July holiday and high pressure will build in, allowing for dry
conditions. This surface high will push east through the day and
allow for some warmer and more moist return flow into the region and
some spots could hit 90 degrees. If temperatures push too far above
90 degrees, the atmosphere could hit some convective temperatures
for some isolated showers/storms, but confidence in that is very
low.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term forecast will be a return to hot with storm chances
for the weekend into early next week. The main culprit will be
exiting high pressure and an upper ridge axis moving through the
area on Saturday. This will allow for full on return flow into the
region with temperatures above 90 degrees will be expected for many,
but dew points will also go back to above 70 degrees at times. There
may be some conditional heat risk concerns with this pattern change,
as heat index values well into the 90s will be in play, but it`s too
early to tell how much convection could play an impact into that.
Compared to yesterday, not as impressed with the convective setup
for Saturday. The overall synoptic pattern seems a touch slower, but
any main synoptic forcing appears to favor Sunday or Monday.
Therefore, any rain or storm chances on Saturday would be diurnally-
driven, which will probably happen if widespread lower 90s can be
achieved, but coverage will be fairly scattered. For Sunday, this
will probably be the best day for rain and storm chances as a
shortwave trough will enter the Great Lakes region and interact with
the hot and moist air mass. At the surface, a trough/weak cold front
will move through the area and allow for more development of shower
and thunderstorm activity and will have the highest PoPs for the
period with this feature. There could be the potential for some
organized storms with synoptic support and will need to monitor
Sunday for a future severe threat. For Monday, the area will be on
the back side of the system but there could be some lingering
convective activity as the air mass will remain conducive with
temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
This aviation period should be a bit calmer than yesterday given
high pressure is expected to slowly build across the area.
Currently, an area of convection over southern Indiana is
continuing to produce heavy rainfall and diminished aviation
conditions. This system is expected to track northeast towards
the area tonight, although weakening as it does. The current
projected timing of this system will bring the potential for
showers and thunderstorms across the southwestern terminals
first beginning around 10Z and expanding north east through late
morning before conditions quickly dry out. Periods of heavy rain
will likely result in non-VFR visibilities at terminals with as
low as IFR possible in the heaviest showers. By this afternoon,
all conditions should rebound to VFR and persist for the
remainder of the period.

In addition to the potential convection later tonight/early this
morning, patchy fog may supersede showers at terminals including
KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG. Not expecting visibilities to drop much
below MVFR but will need to continue to monitor given the fact
that there will not be much time between potential fog
development and onset of precipitation.

Winds through late morning will remain light and variable before
increasing from the west-northwest to 5-10 knots. After sunset,
winds will return to light and variable.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms Thursday. Otherwise, mainly VFR expected through
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build across Lake Erie today allowing for
winds of 5-10 knots to persist from the west-northwest. Tonight,
winds will gain a more northerly component as the ridge
continues to push over the area. On Wednesday, winds again gain
a southwesterly component and persist at 5-10 knots before a
weak cold front sags south across the region and allows winds to
shift back to a more northerly direction. High pressure returns
on Friday and is expected to persist into at least the start of
the weekend. Although wind direction may chance multiple times,
given overall weak gradient over the area, light winds will
allow wave heights to remain 2 feet or less. No marine headlines
are anticipated.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04