Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 270611
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
211 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...06z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through from west to east tonight. A trailing
surface trough crosses on Wednesday. High pressure takes control
of our weather Wednesday night through Friday, before a low
pressure lifts a warm front towards the area early Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM EDT Update...
A line of showers continues to progress east across the area
and starting to see some signs of precip weakening. Wind gusts
haven`t been particularly strong in the last hour or so, but
can`t rule out a few gusts to 30 to 35 mph within the line as it
continues weaken and push east tonight. Winds will diminish
quickly behind the front, as indicated in observations in post-
frontal zones in the western portion of the CWA. No major
changes needed outside of making minor adjustments to PoPs based
on latest radar trends.

Previous Discussion...
A cold front will sweep through from west to east this evening
into tonight, followed by a trailing surface trough on
Wednesday. High pressure finally noses in Wednesday night.

A 35 to 45 knot low-level jet persists through this evening
ahead of the cold front, contributing to continued gusty winds.
Wind gusts have mainly diminished to 30 to 40 MPH across the
area, though locations along and west of I-71 along with near
the eastern lakeshore are still seeing occasional gusts to 45
MPH...due to somewhat steeper low-level lapse rates out west and
due to downsloping along the lakeshore. A Special Wx Statement
for most of the area continues to cover the potential for
localized gusts to near advisory-criteria through 6 PM.

A slug of stratiform rain will lift across the eastern half or
so of our area through the early evening...mainly east of a
Mount Gilead to Cleveland line, with the steadiest rain likely
east of a Millersburg to Painesville line. As this rain exits, a
line of showers and thunder will sweep in from the west along
the cold front. Expect this activity to begin pushing into the
I-75 corridor around 6 PM, with perhaps a few showers developing
a bit earlier ahead of the frontal line of precipitation.

Some increase in organization and intensity of the activity
currently ongoing from central lower MI into eastern IN is
likely through 7 PM. This is due to increased jet support in
the left-exit quadrant of a strong jet streak lifting out of
the mid Mississippi Valley and a period of strong low-level
frontogenesis along the front itself. Weak, uncapped instability
and marginally steep low- level lapse rates of 6-7C/km, along
with mean cloud layer flow of 45-50 knots, supports potential
for strong to perhaps locally severe wind gusts across Northwest
OH with any more organized line segments that are able to surge
or bow to the east-northeast. Given this, the Marginal Risk for
severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) persists
west of roughly a Sandusky to Marion line, with strong straight-
line wind gusts the primary hazard. Small hail may also
accompany a few of the stronger convective cores. The tornado
risk is not truly zero given the strong low-level flow, though
weak instability and a linear storm mode will significantly
limit that potential to the point where the latest SPC severe
weather outlook does not include any tornado probabilities. By 9
or 10 PM, as any line reaches the Sandusky to Marion area,
decreasing low-level lapse rates and any instability getting
used up should lead to any severe risk ending...though a gusty
line of showers may persist farther east with the front.

It will remain mild this evening ahead of the front, cooling
into the upper 30s to mid 40s by early Wednesday behind it.
Highs Wednesday won`t recover much with highs expected to range
from the mid 40s to low 50s. It will be partly sunny to mostly
cloudy on Wednesday and a few light rain showers may accompany
a secondary surface trough axis crossing the area. Gradual
clearing Wednesday night as high pressure noses in, with lows
expected to fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A large scale upper-level trough moves into the Great Lakes region
on Thursday with an embedded shortwave trough and associated PVA
moving across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Previously
the expectation was to be dry slotted as the main parent low
departed well to the north but a lot of the latest model guidance
include some increased 850mb moisture and thus some more cloudiness.
Only increased to partly cloudy but could see a good chunk of mostly
cloudy conditions. Some clouds could continue into Friday but less
likely as high pressure builds in. Temperatures are largely
expected to be near normal during the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper-level shortwave and associated weak surface low moves
across the southern Great Lakes on Saturday, allowing for periods of
rain Saturday through Saturday evening. Sunday will be the only
precipitation-free period before another low pressure system
develops in the central CONUS and lifts northeast to the Great Lakes
and/or Ohio Valley regions Monday night and Tuesday. Precipitation
chances will begin and increase Sunday night and Monday with the
warm front, and then the highest precipitation chances (of 70-90%)
will be Monday afternoon through Monday night when the low pressure
centers moves across the area. Rain is likely to linger into Tuesday
as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
The overall aviation weather conditions expected with this TAF
forecast update will be MVFR to low end VFR ceilings through the
rest of this overnight and today. We still have scattered rain
showers across portions of NEOH moving into NWPA in the next few
hours through about 09z this morning. These rain showers are
slowly decreasing in coverage and expect most of them to be gone
after 09z. There could be a brief moderate shower that could
bring down localized visibility to 5sm but limited impact if
any. Mentioned this possibility in a couple TEMPO groups for
NEOH and NWPA terminals through roughly 09z.

There will be gradual clearing from west to east across
northwest and north central Ohio by this evening. The first
areas to break out of the overcast skies will be TOL and FDY by
00z Thursday or early this evening. That clearing line will make
it to CLE and MFD after 00z. But MVFR/VFR ceilings may hold on
through the end of this 24 hour time period for far NEOH amd
around YNG. ERI and CAK may see the ceilings break up by mid to
late evening around 03z. High pressure will build in late
tonight into early Thursday.

Winds will be west-southwesterly this morning and continue
through this evening. Wind this morning and later today will be
8 to 12 knots. There could be a localized brief gust up to 20
knots during the daytime. Winds will relax to less than 7 knots
from the west tonight as high pressure moves into the region.



Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain showers very late Friday
night through the weekend and may continue into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds of 15 to 25 knots continue through this evening
before a cold front moves east across the area and winds weaken to
10 to 15 knots and out of the southwest tonight and Wednesday. High
pressure builds in Wednesday night through Friday, with winds
remaining at or below 15 knots. A weak low moves across or in the
vicinity of Lake Erie on Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Maines/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Saunders


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