723
FXUS63 KFGF 162329
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
629 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
  through tonight. An isolated stronger storm possible this
  evening, mainly in eastern North Dakota.

- Impacts possible Friday. Isolated strong to severe
  thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening.
  Damaging wind gusts and hail up to 1 inch in diameter are the
  main concern.

- Gusty westerly winds possible on Saturday, with gusts up to 45
  mph.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

We are currently watching the thunderstorms around the Devils
Lake Basin and also in southern Manitoba. These storms have
produced frequent lightning over the past hour. The one storm in
Eddy county bears watching as we see lightning jumps with quick
updrafts. Further storms are toward the west in central ND that
will track eastward as we head through the evening hours and
into the overnight period. Any isolated storms ahead of the wave
of precipitation in central ND has the potential for small hail
or brief gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Surface low in northern Minnesota continues to slowly push
eastward late this afternoon. As a result, low to mid level
clouds continue to linger for these areas and will gradually
lift through the evening. Meanwhile, clearing skies are being
found across eastern North Dakota although will gradually fill
in with cloud cover this evening as a surface trough moves into
the area. Along with surface trough could be the focus for more
showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon through this
evening. If these storms through this evening become surface
based, there is modest CAPE over 1000 J/KG t to fuel them. Mix
layer CAPE is not quite as high though. 0 to 6 KM shear of
around 30 to 40 knots is also adequate for stronger storms.
Looking at soundings, the CAPE appears skinny despite some turn
in the hodographs. Overall an isolated stronger storm is
possible this evening with some small hail and gusty winds
possible. These thunderstorms then look to merge into a line a
weak showers moving from west to east through the night. Some
patchy fog is possible tonight before these showers arrive in
eastern portions of the CWA, mainly from Lake of the Woods to
the Red Lake area. With the cloud cover lows tonight will
generally be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Showers then exit
eastern areas of the CWA Friday morning. As a surface low moves
across southern Canada a warm front will lift across the CWA.
This will bring a southerly breeze and warming temperatures in
the upper 70s to mid 80s. Most of the day looks dry Friday,
although increased instability along the warm front will bring
about some slight chances for an isolated thunderstorms,
dependent on if the CAP can be overcome. Friday evening through
the night, a cold front will push from west to east across the
CWA. This will have ample instability and shear to work with in
central ND. By the time it reaches eastern ND and NW MN,
thunderstorms could already be formed into a line of
thunderstorms. There will still be an adequate amount of cape
and shear when this line moves through. DCAPE values of 1000
J/KG and 0 to 3 km shear of over 20 knots indicate strong winds
being the main threat. If an isolated storm can get going ahead
of this line, hail up to an inch in diameter is possible. Lows
Friday night will remain mild in the 50s.

This weekend, then looks to be cooler yet still mild. Strong
winds behind the mentioned cold front could be found on
Saturday, especially in eastern North Dakota where near advisory
level winds are possible. A developing low lee of the northern
Rockies could return chances for showers and thunderstorms on
Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Depending on timing of
this low perhaps a strong storm is possible Sunday afternoon and
evening. Clusters then indicate a broad trough pattern going
into next week. Even though there are still decent spreads in
the NBM and clusters, this will likely be a cooler pattern with
periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Isolated thunderstorms are moving near the DVL site this
evening, but should remain to the south. Chances for
precipitation and isolated thunderstorms continue this evening
and through the overnight hours. The secondary wave of
precipitation is currently west of the Devils Lake Basin and
will track eastward through the overnight hours. Skies turn SCT
to FEW tomorrow morning before another chance for thunderstorms
near the end of the TAF period and beyond.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Spender
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...Spender