Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 272053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
153 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Scattered mid and high level clouds are expected tonight.
Southeast to southwest winds this evening will become southwest
around midnight at 10 to 20 mph. After midnight winds are expected
to veer to the northwest at 5 to 10 mph as a cold front
approaches. Low temperatures generally in the low 20s west to low
30 east.

The cold front moves through Tuesday morning with north winds
increasing into the 15 to 25 mph range with some higher gusts
during the late morning through afternoon hours. High
temperatures look to range from the upper 30s northwest to low 50s
far east and south. Should also see some light rain showers
develop after the noon hour. Models not handling the qpf forecasts
very well which appears to be tied to whether or not a band of
moisture in the 850-500mb develops behind the front. Will continue
with a slight chance of light rain showers as the incoming 18z
nam is similar to the 12z run with little if any qpf.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 152 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Tuesday night-Wednesday: Main axis of upper level forcing moves
across our CWA early Tuesday evening, while frontogenetic forcing
slowly decreasing through 06Z. Moisture profiles are most
supportive  of precipitation reaching the surface in our west
where low level moisture pooling is possible, while most locations
are shown to have a dry layer in the lower levels of the
atmosphere that would have to be overcome. Due to the progressive
nature of this system, confidence has lowered for most of our CWA.
Light snowfall accumulations will be possible, but most will see
little to none. 1" or less is still possible in eastern CO
(along/south of I-70). Any precipitation (measurable or non
measurable) should end by midnight Tuesday night as large scale
subsidence and a drier more stable air mass moves over our CWA.

Breezy to windy conditions are still expected, particularly
Wednesday.  This could be a concern Wed as afternoon RH values
may drop below 20% south of I-70. This is still above RFW
criteria, however due to the possibility for gusts over 30 mph
this could still be a concern for grass fires. This threat may be
conditional on lack of precip Tuesday night (which could be the
case for much of our CWA).

Thursday-Sunday: Westerly flow becomes established over our the
Central Rockies and Central High Plains along with a weak deep dry
air mass. Highs on Thursday will be near seasonal normals for early
March (upper 40s/lower 50s). Majority of models support dry
conditions through the extended period. One exception is GEM, which
has a slightly stronger and further south track on a shortwave
trough Sunday and Sunday night. This is an obvious outlier and at
this point I did not see a reason put any weight behind it
considering better consistency by GFS/ECMWF (both dry).

The expected pattern will support lee trough redeveloping, along
with above normal temperatures. Strongest WAA will be this weekend
when highs around 70F will be possible. Next Monday is a little less
certain due to the possibility of a cold front Sunday night, but
mean is still favoring above normal temps (50s to near 60F).


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 930 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.

For KGLD winds begin from the southwest occasionally gusting 25kts
through 23z, otherwise winds generally 12-15kts. From 06z through
the rest of the taf period winds steadily veer to the west,
northwest and north at speeds generally 10kts or less. After 15z
north winds gusting toward 25kts expected as a cold front moves
through. Currently no precipitation is expected.

For KMCK winds begin from the south near 10kts and continue
through 04z. From 05z through the rest of the taf period winds
steadily veer to the southwest, west, and northwest at speeds
under 10kts. After 15z northwest winds around 13kts with some
higher gusts possible. No precipitation currently expected. Will
have to watch the 11z-15z timeframe as NAM model showing stratus
behind the front impacting the terminal with possible VLIFR cigs.
Will not include at this time.


KS...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for KSZ013-027-

CO...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ253-254.



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