Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 020910
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
310 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND THE GREATER CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TONIGHT WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL.

THE BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WITH
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE
PANHANDLE REGION WITH INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STRONG SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY LOCATED SQUARELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
AMPLIFIES AS A LOW DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE
SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH
PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW ALONG
WITH A DRYLINE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS STILL SHOW A WET
PATTERN AS THEY HAVE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ALL THE MODELS I
LOOKED AT ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT AND SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. BY SUNDAY
THE RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN AND THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY.

THIS PATTERN STILL IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION... WHICH FAVORS SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA... WHILE THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE
TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION.
THIS PATTERN MAY BECOME EVEN WETTER AS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MOISTURE... FROM THE PACIFIC... MAY START ADVECTING THROUGH THE SW
FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

IN GENERAL... THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TIME FRAME FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

KGLD SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER KMCK MAY
LOWER TO MVFR AS A LINE OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH AROUND 06Z TUESDAY.
BEHIND THE STORMS, STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD MOVE INTO KMCK WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNTIL MID MORNING. VFR WILL RETURN TO KMCK AT
THAT TIME AND REMAIN UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH PRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD
AND KMCK.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...FS


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