Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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923
FXUS63 KGLD 231138
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
538 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 411 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Main forecast issues will be how hot today followed by thunderstorm
chances through the period. Satellite continuing to show an
amplified flow from the Pacific into North America with some
westward shift of features in the Pacific from 24 hours ago. Strong
system moving along the Canadian and USA border has beaten down the
ridge over the central and southwest portion of the country. Surface
trough remains well west of the area with cold front even further
north and northwest of the area.

At jet level...The Gfs/Canadian/Nam did the best at the beginning.
At mid levels...The Gfs/Canadian/Nam were also doing the best here,
especially with the strength and position of the ridge. Sref was
doing the best on the surface pattern. The Sref and Canadian were
starting out a little better than the Gfs and nam.

Forecast confidence is low through the period due to models poor
depiction of reality at this time and mesoscale influences/subtle
features involved.

Today/tonight...First the heat advisory. Temperatures do look a
little cooler than what was indicated yesterday. That makes sense
considering the amount of convection that has been around this
morning and continued convection/cloud cover expected through the
day. Forecast heat indices are close. Went ahead and left the
advisory going since a few degrees could make a difference.

As stated above still a decent amount of thunderstorms going on at
this time with outflow boundaries all over the place that are
helping the continued development. Air mass looks like it did
yesterday morning when thunderstorms developed in the morning and
continued the rest of the day. Currently no cap in place in most
locations with a decent amount of moisture and instability still in
place.

Shortwave is also approaching from Colorado which is expected to
push a prefrontal surface trough into the area this morning and
this afternoon followed by a front tonight. Of course this is
assuming the mesoscale influences do not change all this. Also as
has been the case recently, high resolution/convective allowing
models have their differences/problems. At this time, the Rap and
the Nam are doing the best with the Nam from yesterday getting
yesterdays forecast more right than the other output.

Am thinking that the convection will not go completely away this
morning due to the outflow boundaries and incoming shortwave.
Rainfall should become a little more organized when the synoptic
boundaries move in. What makes this more complicated is this
incoming shortwave. It deepens over the surface boundary this
afternoon/evening. Then most of the output develops a
convectively induced circulation which stays over the area through
the night. Also storm movement is going to be pretty slow so area
could see some localized heavy rainfall.

Hard to pinpoint anything so kept slight chance to low chance
pops with the southern and eastern locations having the highest
pops through the night.

Sunday/Sunday night...considering the upslope behind the front,
outflow boundaries, and continued weak lift aloft, expect lingering
thunderstorms in the morning. Weak and unorganized lift, at least at
the low to mid levels is in place during the afternoon and nighttime
hours. HEIGHT rises actual occur at times. The only thing that
gives me a little more confidence is a right rear quadrant that is
near the northwest portion late in the afternoon and the northern
portion during the night.

Despite having enough lift, moisture, and instability in place, the
models are not excited about the qpf. Kept slight chance to low
chance pops in through the period. Should be cooler due to a post
frontal/upslope air mass with lingering cloud cover and
precipitation.

Monday/Monday night...upper jet pulls further to the north during
this period. Not a lot to help to pinpoint when/where best
precipitation chances will be. Not a lot of lift aloft but still do
have moisture and instability around so it will not take a lot to
get things going with mesoscale affects drastically affecting
precipitation chances. Looks to be a little warmer but again
uncertain how much.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

At the beginning of the extended period the upper level flow starts
out predominant zonal and then turns meridional by end. Disturbances
are anticipated to pass across the High Plains with the stronger
waves passing on Wednesday and Saturday. This means that chance of
precipitation will persist throughout the extended period with
better chances for precipitation on Tuesday and Saturday.
Temperatures will remain warm, mainly in the low to mid 90s during
the first part of the period. Then cool into the high 80s towards
the end.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 534 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

At this time, vfr conditions are expected at both sites. For
Kgld...light and variable winds will shift to a northeast
direction this afternoon. Due to low confidence in timing and
location of initiation, chose to only put vcts from 22z to 04z.

For Kmck...A few thunderstorms will be near the site this morning
so have vcts through 14z with gusty southerly winds. For the same
reason as kgld, chose only to put vcts from 20z to 03z. Some low
level wind shear will develop after 06z.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ002>004-015-016-
     029.

CO...NONE.
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BULLER



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