Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 210836
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
236 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Across the Tri State region this morning...the area is seeing a cold
front push SE thru the area. The boundary is currently pushing thru
NE Colorado. SSW winds remain out ahead of it with gusts 30-40mph
east of Highway 25/83. Temperatures are currently ranging from near
50F in NE Colorado thru the upper 60s across eastern zones.

An upper level trough is accompanying the surface feature as it
transitions eastward into the Plains. Some shower activity is
showing up along the trough in portions of Colorado. Based on
current trends with the light precip...some locales across Yuma
county may see a few showers thru the morning hours when clearing
ensues.

For the rest of today...the passage of the front/trough combo will
bring in some strong WNW winds. The gradient...enhanced by a low
level jet will allow for locales to see gusts reaching the 30-45 mph
range before abating towards sunset. Despite CAA working into the
region and clearing thru the day...the downslope winds will still
afford the region daytime highs into the lower to mid 60s.

Going into tonight...the region will remain under a northerly fetch
that will weaken as the evening/overnight progresses. With the
expected clearing skies...temps will drop sharply from sunset into
the overnight. The region will see overnight lows drop into a range
from the upper 20s west into the lower 30s east. These freezing/sub-
freezing temps have prompted the issuance of a Freeze Watch for all
KS/NE zones...lasting thru 14z Sunday.

The region warms up for Sunday as upper level H5/H7 ridging gives
the region a dry/warm day with highs in the 70s. Another front is
expected to traverse the region on Monday. This will bring another
shot of colder air. Monday will also see strong NW winds behind the
boundary thru the day. Gusts could reach in to the 30-35 mph range
before slackening going into the evening/overnight hours Monday.
Lack of moisture will keep area dry during this frontal passage as
well.

Monday high temps will drop back down to near normal numbers mainly
in the 60s. Overnight lows Sunday night will range in the lower to
mid 40s...but shift downward further into the 30s with the passage
of the second boundary...and clearing skies/light winds by Monday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Tuesday and Wednesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail with a
retreating trough to the east and a ridge to our west. We will be
looking at near average temperatures on Tuesday as CAA will prevent
much of an increase in temps. The western ridge will diminish in
strength as we head into Wednesday; however, slightly weaker flow
aloft combined with warm 850 temps will allow our high temps to
climb well into the 70s. Dry weather is expected both days.

Thursday and Friday: There is significant disagreement among the
global guidance as we head into late next week. The GFS and Canadian
highlight a general troughing pattern across the Plains with lowered
heights and cooler temperatures. The ECMWF however, is much colder
than the other two, closing off a strong low in the four corners
region and sending it northeastward. This is evident in both the H5
and H7 layers and with strong moisture advection ahead of the
system, this could make for a very interesting scenario late Friday.

In either case, it will be much cooler and wetter with precipitation
chances increasing on Thursday and persisting all the way into the
weekend. Current guidance is cold enough for a mention of snow/mixed
precip late Thursday night and into Friday morning. Much of the area
will experience temperatures in the upper 20s on both Thursday and
Friday night, which should be enough to meet hard freeze criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1144 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017

VFR conditions should prevail at KGLD and KMCK terminals. There
may be some virga (primarily at KMCK) around 12Z, however
confidence is low that any rain showers will actually occur at
either terminal. A cold front is still expected to swing over both
KGLD and KMCK terminals, with gusty winds shifting from the south
to the northwest. Low level wind shear is also still possible
overnight ahead and behind this front through sunrise. Strongest
gusts will be during the day, and a few gusts to 40kt can`t be
ruled out late Saturday morning through early Saturday afternoon.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR



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