Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 020942
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
342 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A LOW CENTER MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS KEEPS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IN WHICH IMPULSES ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH
THE PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE...OTHER THAN BECOMING MORE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ALSO MOVES VERY LITTLE AND UNDERGOES PERIODIC AMPLIFICATION AND
DEAMPLIFICATION AS SHORT WAVES ALOFT MOVE OVER THE REGION.

EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE ROCKIES AND TRACK TO THE EAST NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS
EACH EVENING. THIS AFTERNOON THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH STORMS
STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BUT STORMS SHOULD
MAKE IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE THE LAST MODEL RUN. THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS STILL SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION. AS THE RIDGE STARTS
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST... THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH
CHANGES IT ORIENTATION TO BE MOVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SETS
UP A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE TRI STATE AREA WITH
PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING WITHIN THESE FLOW. WITH THE
ADDITION OF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE PACIFIC REGION...
THIS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLOD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT BEING ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION... HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 80S ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS. AT THIS TIME, NO
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IMPACT EITHER SITE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...FS


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