Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 272353
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
753 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Slow moving cold front stalls over the area tonight. Low
pressure will develop along the cold front and lift north into
the Carolinas through Thursday morning, bringing another chance
of rain. High pressure builds from the lower Mississippi Valley
into the Gulf Coast states Thursday afternoon into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Rain continues in the east this evening, but a renewed
chance of rain is expected overnight and into Thursday morning.
2. Gusty winds expected by Thursday afternoon.

The surface cold front has finally reached the western periphery
of the forecast area, and is expected to eventually stall
overhead tonight and tomorrow morning. Rain showers continue
over the Piedmont this evening, where the bulk of the rain has
been through today. This trend will continue through tonight
into tomorrow morning, before rain starts to taper off around
midday. A few thunderstorms have been observed in the Virginia
Southside, although the better coverage of activity is in
central North Carolina and southward. But still, those in the VA
and NC Piedmont could see some lightning and hear a few rumbles
of thunder through later this evening.

No significant changes made to the forecast for this evening
update, aside from blending in current observations.

Previous discussion below...


As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

Low pressure will develop along the frontal boundary over the
Carolinas tonight and lift north along the Atlantic Coast
through tomorrow morning. This will reintroduce another round
of rainfall for areas east of the Blue Ridge. Best rainfall
chance will be along US29 from Lynchburg to Danville to
Reidsville and points east. A few rain showers could make it as
far west as the Roanoke Valley.

Rain will gradually taper off through the day Thursday as
surface low pressure lifts northeast into the Atlantic. Winds
will become breezy behind the departing low, gusting into the
20mph range by Thursday evening, possibly higher along the
higher elevations in the west.

Warmer in the west than east today owing to breaks in the cloud
cover. Cooler east of the mountains where more consistent cloud
cover has remained, along with light rain. Cool tonight with
upper 30s in the mountains. Low/mid 40s east of the mountains.
Thursday, 50s in the mountains and upper 50s/lower 60s in the
east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1240 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for gusty winds during Thursday night and
Friday before high pressure arrives by Friday night.

2) Warmer weather is expected for Saturday.

As a cold front exits the East Coast on Thursday night, winds will
become gusty from the northwest. The strongest wind gusts will take
place on Friday when the boundary layer mixes with an 850 mb jet
reaching up to 40 knots across the southern Blue Ridge and even up
to 45 knots farther north into central Virginia and West Virginia.
These wind gusts may come close to advisory criteria along the
highest elevations, and the wet ground from recent rainfall combined
with these winds could cause isolated downed trees and power lines.

The winds should eventually subside on Friday night as high pressure
passes to the south. By Saturday, a broad upper level ridge will
build across the southern Plains. This change in the synoptic
pattern should result in warmer weather for the Mid Atlantic with
high temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Meanwhile, a baroclinic zone
will set up along the periphery of this ridge across the northern
Plains. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms firing along this
zone will try to spread southeastward towards central West Virginia
by Saturday evening, but a downsloping westerly flow will keep rain
chances limited. Most locations should remain dry through Saturday
night, especially in the Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1240 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for above normal temperatures during the early
part of next week.

2) Chances of rain will steadily increase and peak by Tuesday as a
cold front reaches the Mid Atlantic.

A broad upper level ridge in the southern Plains will continue to
provide above normal temperatures for the Mid Atlantic into early
next week. Meanwhile, a baroclinic zone along the northern periphery
of this ridge should become a warm front in response to a developing
low pressure system over the Rocky Mountains. This warm front should
spark several more clusters of showers and thunderstorms that could
impact the Appalachian Mountains during Sunday afternoon through
Monday night. The cold front from this low pressure system will
arrive sometime by Tuesday and Tuesday night to bring the highest
and most widespread chance of rain. A breezy northwest flow and
cooler air may follow on Wednesday once the cold front departs.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Wednesday...

Mostly VFR conditions are present this evening for terminals
west of the Blue Ridge. In the east, between MVFR and IFR, but
KDAN has remained at LIFR for much of the afternoon and evening
as rain has persisted over this area. A few isolated
thunderstorms have been observed in the Virginia Southside near
KDAN, but the greater convective activity is in central North
Carolina and south. Rain chances and coverage will increase
through the overnight and into Thursday morning for KDAN and
KLYH, along with lower ceilings and reduced visibilities. Rain
should push farther eastward and out of the area by Thursday
afternoon, by around 18Z or so, and clearer skies will return to
KDAN and KLYH by Thursday evening. Skies should clear out west
of the mountains around noon Thursday. Some patchy fog is
possible in the valleys early Thursday morning, mainly for KROA
and KLWB.

Northwesterly winds will increase and become gusty following a
frontal passage early Thursday afternoon, mainly along and west
of the Blue Ridge. Gusts may reach 20 to 25 knots, possibly
higher along the ridges after 18Z Thursday through the
remainder of the TAF period ending at 00Z Friday.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Gusty northwest winds continue through Thursday night into
Friday. Conditions will be mainly VFR with mostly clear skies
through Friday.

Another front approaches from the north this weekend bringing
another chance of rain and possible sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/AS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG/AS


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