Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 281143
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
643 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Modest southwest flow aloft continues with high cloud streaming
northeast across eastern Kansas from dissipated convection. Along
with 925mb winds around 15kt, fog formation has been kept in check
despite light winds, wet ground, and highs surface humidities. NAM
and GFS depict modest isentropic upglide developing in the next few
hours around 305K with several recent HRRR runs as well as some
other guidance sparking scattered convection. Plan to keep small
pops going early this morning as a few surface obs have been
reporting some cloud around 5000 ft AGL. Lower level moisture
remains in place through tonight with PW values continuing to rise
to around 1.75" from southeast to northwest. Afternoon airmass looks
to again have little capping and around 2000 J/kg ML CAPE with
little in the way of apparent forcing mechanisms for convection.
Based on some activity yesterday and continued model signals, will
keep small afternoon and early evening pops. Very limited shear and
meager lapse rates aloft should keep any impacts limited to
downburst winds. 850/925mb trends push most high temps into the
upper 80s. Deeper moisture pushes into north central Kansas tonight
for a continued small precip chance through the night. Low level
winds look even lighter but expect high cloud to prevent fog
development.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Eastern Kansas will be on the western side of the Bermuda high
Monday and Tuesday. Upper low over the Four Corners will shear out
as it lifts northeast into the Central Plains Monday and Tuesday.
Best forcing is forecast to be to the west and northwest of the
forecast area. Subtropical moisture will remain across the area and
will keep locally heavy rainfall with slow moving convection a
possibility. Upper ridge is forecast across the Plains Wednesday
through Friday. Models continue to offer differing solutions and
timing of waves beneath the ridge. Will keep precipitation chances
for the week no higher than 40 percent. An upper level trough across
the western U.S. is forecast to move eastward by next weekend into
the Rockies resulting in a transition to a southwest flow aloft and
pieces of energy ejecting out across the Central Plains. Highs should
mainly be in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

VFR conditions anticipated. Recent clearing of high cloud
bringing patchy and very shallow ground fog but should be short-
lived as insolation sets in. Convective chances in the 20-01Z
period remain too low for a mention. Will need to watch cloud and
wind trends for impactful ground fog potential late in the
forecast.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...65



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