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000
FXUS63 KTOP 162055
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
355 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

The mid-level trough that helped to support the showers and
thunderstorms last evening and areas of light snow earlier this
morning has progressed southeast of the area this afternoon. Surface
high pressure surged southward into the region behind the exiting
system, resulting in clearing skies, dry conditions, and gradually
diminishing wind speeds as the pressure gradient weakened over the
area. With most of the cloud cover shifting east of the forecast
area by early/mid afternoon, temperatures were able to warm up into
the low/mid 40s across much of the area with upper 30s still present
across extreme eastern Kansas. Models show the axis of surface high
pressure centered over the region tonight before finally shifting
southeast of the area overnight into Monday morning. As a result,
expect the northerly winds to veer to the south late tonight through
the overnight hours. This shift to southerly flow will result in
temperatures overnight remaining fairly steady or only dropping a
few degrees, with low temperatures in the low/mid 20s.

Water vapor imagery earlier this morning showed a mid-level ridge
stretching across the western U.S. with a mid-level trough over the
Pacific Ocean progressing eastward toward the Pacific Northwest.
This eastward progression of the mid-level trough will lead to the
northern edge of the mid-level ridge getting pushed southward,
resulting in a southwest-to-northeast orientation from the
southwestern U.S. towards the Central Plains tonight through Monday.
This advancing trough will also help to push an area of surface low
pressure currently over the northern Rockies southward toward the
region on Monday, resulting in another tightening pressure gradient
developing through the day with southerly winds sustained at 15-20
mph with gusts upwards of 30mph during the afternoon hours. This
southerly flow will help to support decent warm air advection into
the region with models continuing to show a thermal ridge developing
across eastern Colorado to central Kansas. With this orientation of
the thermal ridge, expect high temperatures for Monday to moderate
into the mid/upper 50s over extreme eastern Kansas to the upper
60s/low 70s across central Kansas. In addition to gusty southerly
winds and mild temperatures, also expect very dry conditions across
portions of north central Kansas so a Red Flag Warning has been
issued for that area for Monday afternoon. See the Fire Weather
Discussion below and the RFW for further details.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

Tuesday and Tuesday Night, another upper level trough will move
southeast across the central plains. This system will not have much
moisture to work with as the western Gulf of Mexico will be far from
equilibrium between air and water temps. There will probably be
enough frontogenetical forcing as the H5 trough moves east across NE
and KS for light rain to develop behind the surface cold front. The
cold front will move southeast across the CWA during the afternoon
and early evening hours. Temperatures aloft and at the surface may
get cold enough behind the front for snow to mix in with the rain
Tuesday night, though precip amounts will be light. The better
chance for precipitation will be along the NE border with only trace
amounts south of interstate 70. The precip should shift east of the
CWA by 12Z WED. Highs on Tuesday will be in the lower to mid 60s
across east central KS, ahead of the cold front. Highs across
northeast and north central KS will range form the lower to mid 50s.

Wednesday through  Friday, expect west-northwest flow aloft to
continue across the plains. A weak H5 trough will move across the
central plains Thursday night and Friday and will cause a cold front
to move through the region early Friday morning. There may be enough
ascent for some sprinkles. Highs will reach the mid to upper 50s on
Wednesday, then warming into the mid to upper 60s on Thursday. We
will see a slight cool down to the lower 60s on Friday.

We may see more of cool down into next weekend as an upper level
trough digs southeast across central Canada into the Great Lakes
states. A cold surface ridge will build southward across the mid
MS river valley. The western edge of this colder airmass may move
southward across eastern KS for the weekend. Highs will be in the
lower 50s, though the ECMWF shows highs only reaching the mid to
upper 40s. If the upper trough amplifies a bit farther east, then
the colder airmass may stay just east of the CWA. For now, I went
with highs in the lower to mid 50s. There may be some sprinkles or
light rain showers on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

For the 18z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
The breezy northerly winds will continue to diminish during the
afternoon hours as the pressure gradient weakens over the area. As
surface high pressure tracks over the region tonight into early
Monday morning, winds will become light and variable before shifting
to the southwest by Monday morning. These winds are expected to
increase once again Monday afternoon.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 344 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

The combination of increasing southerly winds ahead of the next
approaching system, high temperatures reaching into the upper 50s to
low 70s, and dewpoint temperatures only in the mid to upper
20-degree range will likely result in very high to extreme fire
danger concerns across most of the forecast area for Monday
afternoon. The strongest wind gusts upwards of 25 to 30 mph and
warmest temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s look to be focused
over north central Kansas, with RH values in that region likely
dropping to around 20 percent or less by the afternoon. As a result
of these expected conditions, have issues a Red Flag Warning for
portions of north central Kansas for Monday afternoon from 17z
through 01z Tuesday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 8 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ008>010-
020>022-034>036.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Hennecke
FIRE WEATHER...Hennecke