515
FXUS63 KTOP 131116
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
616 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 90s Tuesday and Wednesday with heat indices around
  100.

- Thunderstorm chances return area-wide Tuesday night into
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Western areas have cleared out overnight but scattered showers and
thunderstorms developed over east-central Kansas downstream of a
weak upper low over north-central Oklahoma. Deformation may continue
this activity through much of the morning but the upper low working
east into southwest Missouri early this afternoon should allow for
drying and clearing conditions for all of eastern Kansas by mid
afternoon. Instability is limited but precipitable water values
around 1.5 inches and slow storm movement will support isolated
heavy rainfall. Highs will likely be cooler again for southeastern
locations but return to the upper 80s to lower 90s in much of the
remainder of the local area.

Dry conditions should be the rule from late afternoon through
Tuesday afternoon. Will need to keep an eye on another weak upper
trough moving northeast out of the southern Plains but this will
likely remain to the south and east. Several smaller-scale upper
waves will also be moving east across the northern Plains where the
better westerlies will be located. These should eventually usher a
front or effective front south into the local area in the middle of
the week. The weak nature of the waves and impact of storm outflows
along it bring uncertainty in when the front will move in. The most
likely timing for passage looks to be Wednesday morning into
Thursday evening with at least modest precipitation chances with it.
Some low to mid level warm air advection ahead of the front will
support warmer temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday and heat indices
near/around 100 F are likely for at lest some of the area. Highs
should fall back into the 80s late in the week though rise again
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Precipitation has dissipated rather quickly in the past hour. A
few more stray showers could form around TOP and FOE but look
unlikely. VFR conditions with light winds will dominate this
forecast, though there is some potential for diurnal BR
formation late.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage