Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 250421 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1021 PM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Decided to split the POP, wx and sky grids for tonight at the 06z
mark and to tone down the pops and related grids as per latest
radar trends and model guidance. More or less typical diurnal
diminishing precip trends have been observed. No changes made
beyond tonight.



Healthy crop of TS/SH will impact large portions of the area
through the eve hrs. Many impacts to terminal forecast sites will
exist including gusty outflow wind between 25 to 35 kt as well as
brief vis restrictions due to heavier rainfall. Main impact period
looks to be through 4z at GUP/AEG/ABQ/SAF/LVS and TCC. Activity at
TCC could go a little longer into the eve. Another strong crop of
storms is expected Monday afternoon. Using VCTS/VCSH as a
placeholder right now for the impacts. Storms will be slower
moving the next 24 hrs thus increasing likelihood of longer
duration impacts.



Upper high pressure will wobble around New Mexico this week.
Sufficient moisture will exist for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop over the higher terrain then drift into the
lower elevations. Some storms may produce locally heavy
rain. Temperatures will continue to be near to above average.


Upper high pressure will wobble around NM this week. It generally
drifts to our northwest where it will be stationed over the Great
Basin mid to late this week. It then drifts back over NM next
weekend then to our east early next week, which results in a more
traditional monsoon pattern for a short period before the ridge axis
extends westward, similar to what it has been recently.

Sufficient amounts of moisture will remain trapped within the high
pressure circulation for isolated to scattered showers and storms to
develop each day over the higher terrain and then drift into the
adjacent valleys and plains. Boundaries and weak circulations left
over from overnight convection or weak cold fronts, such as
anticipated this evening in the northeast, may help initiate showers
and storms. Storms may produce locally heavy rain at times, due to
slow and erratic movement.

Water vapor imagery shows a disturbance over some of the Gulf coast
states this afternoon moving to the west. The GFS picks up on this
feature but it appears it may be largely suppressed to our south by
the upper high once it travels closer to NM later this week. Right
now something to monitor.

Temperatures will remain near to above average this week.



High pressure has elongated on a west-east axis over NM and adjacent
southwest states. After starting the day with good to excellent
humidity recovery, overall mid to upper level moisture has increased
with fairly similar surface dewpoints. The weak surface boundary in
southeastern CO is currently toying with the idea of invading
northeastern NM. High resolution models indicate this will happen
late this afternoon with farther invasion into NM this evening. The
front will bring a subtle wind shift to our northeastern zones this
afternoon and this evening, but it will be effective as far as
enhancing thunderstorm development. Elsewhere, an east southeast
surface flow from the Gulf of Mexico has set up over many remaining
areas of NM. This flow has not yet had a chance to bring significant
low layer moisture to NM, but with time it will. The east southeast
flow has produced some upslope flow that would assist storm
development on east faces of the central mountain chain and toward
the interface with the high plains through the evening. The overall
coverage of storms has grown some today with some isolated cores of
moderate to heavy rainfall, but still the margins of the storm
coverage remain a fairly high threat for lightning induced wildfire

The exact location of how far south and west the front will end up
by dawn Monday is challenging, but we anticipate that it will
penetrate the gaps/canyons of the central mountain chain and invade
most of the east central plains of NM. As the front stalls and
washes out, the surface flow will largely retain a southeasterly
component into Monday afternoon. This should keep dewpoints/humidity
on the rise while temperatures finally see some relief from triple
digits in the central and eastern zones, albeit just barely. The
moisture should fuel a decent crop of thunderstorms Monday with
Haines indices lowering.

Into Tuesday and Wednesday the ridge of high pressure aloft sets up
northwest of the Four Corners. Healthy dewpoints are retained, and
overall atmospheric moisture remains sufficient for additional bouts
of thunderstorms, and wetting rainfall potential will be highest
during this Tuesday-Wednesday stretch. Temperatures will stay
slightly above normal, but will be falling back a few degrees
through the middle of the week with Haines indices moderating to
values of 3 to 4 in most zones. The moisture would be recycled each
day through the end of the week with the latter half of the week
expected to see a slow, subtle reduction in storms.






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