Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 210142 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
742 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE TO LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT. 18Z MODEL SUITE BACKING OFF ON OVERNIGHT QPF AND
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
IDEA. SUNDAY IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE VERY ACTIVE AS UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENCE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE IN COMBINATION WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM SELY WINDS/FLOW.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...545 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH SHORT-LIVED IFR...LIKELY IN/NEAR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY. LOW PROBABILITY
OF TAF SITES BEING IMPACTED BY CONVECTION THIS EVENING...BUT
CHANCES RAMP-UP SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KROW...KTCC AND KLVS. MVFR
CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR...LIKELY OVERNIGHT AT KROW...
KLVS AND KTCC WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVING NW ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. EAST WINDS AT KABQ THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ARE NOT
FORECAST TO EXCEED LOCAL AVIATION WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA...
ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25-30KTS WILL BE COMMON.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK TOWARDS
NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
MONDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOIST LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS ALONG WITH
A TAP OF MOISTURE FROM OLD MEXICO WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. AT THIS
TIME...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS COULD
EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. ELSEWHERE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE ENTIRE REGION SEES SOME DRIER WEATHER AROUND MIDWEEK.
WITH A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO LOCALES OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS MORE ACTIVE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND NORTH BUT
HRRR SHOWS MOST OF THOSE FADING AWAY THIS EVENING AND AN AREA OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH. EAST WIND HAS
MADE IT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND JUST
ABOUT READY TO HIT THE SUNPORT. THE MOIST EAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE A FEATURE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A
FACTOR IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION TO OUR WEST IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST TO
OUR NORTH MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY IT APPEARS
TO BE ALREADY SETTING UP A FLOW OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
STATE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...ON TOP OF WHAT ALREADY EXISTS
BASED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS. IT LOOKS AS IF THESE INGREDIENTS COULD
COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
GUIDANCE POPS HAVE SHOT UP CONSIDERABLY AND NOT A DRY MODEL IN THE
HOUSE. UPPED POPS BUT STILL WARY AFTER THE ODILE
EXPERIENCE...HOWEVER THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SITUATION TO BE
TAKEN LIGHTLY...THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE. QUESTION
WAS WHAT LOCATIONS MIGHT BE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE FLOODING ISSUES AND
CURRENT WATCH IS A FIRST ATTEMPT. TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY
HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD AS WELL.

BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND SOME DRYING SHOULD TAKE PLACE...RELEGATING
CONVECTION TO OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER DEEP UPPER
LOW IS DEPICTED TO IMPACT THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EASTERLY FLOW HAS RETURNED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND IS STARTING
TO OOZE THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. COULD SEE
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH POSSIBLE...THOUGH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GUSTS WILL BE FAR LESS. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME
SPOTTY STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE WEST SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXCELLENT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE EASTERLY FLOW
PULLS IN THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WEST TEXAS. BY
SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS THANKS TO THE UPSLOPE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER FOR SUNDAY. UPPER LOW NOW OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PULLING UP MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NM. MEANWHILE THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE
THATS POOLED UP ACROSS WEST TEXAS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW
MEXICO. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED...AND THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL FROM ODILE WILL BE MORE PRONE TO SEE FLOODING
PROBLEMS. TEMPS WILL TREND DOWNWARD SUNDAY...THANKS TO THE MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER. ALL BUT THE NW WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
VENTILATION WILL ALSO TREND DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE UPPER LOW SCOOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE BASE OF
THE LOW/TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER NORTHERN NM...RESULTING IN WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR INTO THE NW FOR MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL. VENTILATION WILL BE POOR TO FAR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM...WHILE GOOD VENTILATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST.

A DRYING TREND REMAINS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER ARIZONA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW STORMS
DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOWEVER. LOW TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN POOR
TO FAIR VENTILATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF ZONE 106 AND 109 ON
TUESDAY...WHILE A BROADER AREA OF POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

A DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS STILL FORECAST BY
EXTENDED MODELS AROUND THE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND TIMEFRAME.
THOUGH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL UP IN THE AIR
SO-TO-SPEAK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IN
THE CARDS.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM MDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ508-509-523-526-533>540.

&&

$$

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