Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 272131
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
331 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF UTAH AND INTO
COLORADO...STEERING THE BEST PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO
FARTHER EAST. AS DRIER AIR STEADILY ARRIVES FROM THE WEST...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF NEW MEXICO WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE IN MUCH OF CENTRAL TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO WITH
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE HOVERING CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES ON ITS TRACK EASTWARD
THURSDAY...A FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF THE STATE ON
FRIDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY SLOT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LOW TREKKING EASTWARD INTO CO. THIS HAS ALREADY
TRANSLATED INTO A DRYING TREND IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WHILE PARTLY IMPEDING THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO GO UP OVER NEW
MEXICO. THUS...CELLS HAVE STAYED VERY FEW IN NUMBER THUS FAR...BUT
THERE STILL IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
THE LOWLANDS/PLAINS EASTWARD TO SEE SOME HEALTHIER STORMS WITH
BETTER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY AS PWATS ARE STILL HANGING ON TO 1-1.3
INCH VALUES IN THIS QUADRANT OF THE STATE. THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING...FALLING OFF TO JUST ISOLATED
COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST MODELS SILL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN FILL
IN WITH HIGHER PRESSURE HEIGHTS...AND OPEN INTO A WAVE OVER
EASTERN PARTS OF CO/NM BY THURSDAY. WRAP-AROUND NW FLOW ALONG WITH
A SURFACE WIND SHIFT WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WITH SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED CLOSE TO THE TROUGH AXIS. THUS...THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
THURSDAY.

POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES ON FRIDAY...TO
ACCOUNT FOR A RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...KEEPING
SUFFICIENT DEWPOINTS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTACT ALONG WITH
AN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. OTHERWISE...WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL
GENERALLY TURN MUCH LIGHTER INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AS A NEW DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ALSO...THE DRIER
AIRMASS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL INHIBIT STORM
DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. FRIDAY NIGHT THE NAM MODEL
ACTUALLY GETS QUITE BULLISH WITH A NOCTURNAL MOISTURE PUSH AMIDST
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IN EASTERN NM. IT EVEN ADVERTISES
CAPE VALUES SOARING TO 2000 J/KG OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS
ISOLATED FOR NOW...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE BOOSTED IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES.

WE HAVE ALSO RAISED THE POPS SOME ON SATURDAY...STAYING IN THE 10
TO 20 PERCENT RANGE...BUT COVERING A FAIRLY LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THROUGH THIS TIME THE AFOREMENTIONED DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN WILL BE TRYING TO TAKE UP RESIDENCE NEAR NM...BUT IT
APPEARS THE WESTERLIES WILL MAKE A STAND...BASICALLY THE RESULT OF
A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK AND SUBTLE EQUATOR-WARD SHIFT IN THE
POLAR JET. THIS WILL POSE DIFFICULTIES FOR FORECAST MODELS. ALL IT
WILL TAKE IS JUST A SLIGHT RELAXATION IN WESTERLIES OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ALLOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO CREEP BACK INTO
NM. FOR NOW FORECAST HAS SIDED ON THE MOSTLY DRY SIDE...BUT IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO KEEP UP WITH SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER THE HIGH IS SHOWN TO BECOME BETTER ROOTED OVER THE MS
VALLEY WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA POTENTIALLY FORMING NEAR
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LOOK FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
TONIGHT. LOWER HUMIDITY WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REDUCE
MAX RECOVERIES.

THE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FAVORING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL COLORADO TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT
WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS BECAUSE OF A BACK DOOR FRONT...OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM ELSEWHERE. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FAVORING AREAS ALONG A
LINE FROM FARMINGTON TO CLINES CORNERS.

FRIDAY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY BUT TREND UPWARD AND
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY THE BEST
CHANCE AT SOME SHOWERS...MOST LIKELY LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WOULD BE FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS. SOME LIGHTER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR EAST ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE ROCKIES REGION ON
SUNDAY AND DRAG DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. PERHAPS SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZIER CONDITIONS PRETTY MUCH
AREAWIDE. PRETTY NOTICEABLE. HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SCENARIO
BASED ON PAST AND CURRENT MODEL TRENDS.

MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON A RIDGE PATTERN BUILDING OVER THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE TROUGH PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM AND
HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD INITIALLY BE SEASONABLE IF NOT BELOW NORMAL OR
DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED DURING THIS SCENARIO IN TERMS OF HOW LOW TO GO WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MIDWEEK AND
MAINLY DIFFER HOW QUICKLY THEY BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE BACK OVER
THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH OR QUICKER THAN THE GFS. EITHER
WAY...THE ECMWF/GFS DEPICT A SIMILAR OVERALL PATTERN. TOO EARLY TO
SAY WHEN THE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WOULD BECOME SIGNIFICANT BUT
EXPECT BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE WIND PATTERN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE WEEK BUT AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
GROWS...SO WILL THE DOWNDRAFT/OUTFLOW WIND POTENTIAL.

32/50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ALTHOUGH NOT AS MESSY OF A WEATHER SITUATION COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
UPPER LOW...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLAY FOR
THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. FMN/AEG/ABQ/SAF AND ROW ARE
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY EITHER SH OR TS. DIRECT HITS FROM TS ARE
MOST LIKELY AT ABQ/AEG AND ROW BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE SUSPECT BUT FIGURE SOMETIME BETWEEN 22Z TO 2Z. WILL
UPDATE AS SH/TS DEVELOP. MTN TOP OBSCD DUE TO PASSING SH/TS
PROBABLE BUT MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PASSING TS IS LIKELY TO BE
SHORT IN DURATION SO DONT HAVE THOSE CONDITIONS DEPICTED IN ANY OF
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. ROW IS THE MOST PROBABLE SITE
TO RECEIVE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A PASSING TS LATER TODAY. MID EVENING TO
OVERNIGHT DVLPMENT SH IMPACTS WILL BE MOST POSSIBLE AT ROW AND
CANT RULE OUT TCC BUT DONT HAVE THIS INDICATED IN THE TCC
FORECAST. LOW CLOUDS/VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT LIKELY AT THE
TERMINAL SITES LATE NIGHT AS DRIER NEAR SFC AIR IS DEPICTED TO PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST. WILL MONITOR ACCORDINGLY.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  53  83  53  87 /  10   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  43  76  44  81 /  20  10   5   5
CUBA............................  46  77  48  80 /  10  10   5   5
GALLUP..........................  47  80  46  83 /   5   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  46  75  45  77 /   5   5   0   0
GRANTS..........................  48  78  47  80 /  10   5   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  49  77  48  80 /   5   5   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  54  86  54  87 /  10   5   0   0
CHAMA...........................  38  71  39  75 /  20  30  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  49  76  51  77 /  10  10   5   5
PECOS...........................  49  74  49  75 /  20  10   5  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  43  72  43  76 /  20  30  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  37  61  41  66 /  20  50  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  35  69  37  71 /  20  30  20  20
TAOS............................  42  74  44  78 /  10  20  10  10
MORA............................  46  74  46  73 /  20  20  10  20
ESPANOLA........................  50  81  51  83 /  10  10   0   5
SANTA FE........................  51  77  52  79 /  10  10   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  50  80  51  81 /  10   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  56  81  55  83 /  10   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  59  83  60  85 /  10   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  54  85  59  87 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  56  85  60  88 /  10   0   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  58  84  58  85 /  10   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  59  86  60  88 /  10   0   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  60  88  60  89 /  20   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  51  79  53  80 /  10  10   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  53  80  53  82 /  10   5   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  50  82  49  84 /  20   5   0  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  52  77  51  78 /  20  10   5  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  55  79  53  80 /  20   5   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  59  82  56  83 /  30   5   5  10
RUIDOSO.........................  57  77  54  78 /  30  10   5  20
CAPULIN.........................  48  75  49  78 /  20  40  30  20
RATON...........................  48  77  48  79 /  20  40  20  20
SPRINGER........................  50  79  50  80 /  20  30  20  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  50  77  48  77 /  20  10   5  30
CLAYTON.........................  60  81  57  84 /  30  40  40  20
ROY.............................  56  80  55  80 /  20  30  20  30
CONCHAS.........................  62  88  60  87 /  30  10  10  20
SANTA ROSA......................  61  87  59  85 /  20  10  10  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  91  60  89 /  30  20  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  62  89  60  87 /  30  20  20  20
PORTALES........................  64  90  61  88 /  30  10  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  63  88  60  87 /  30  10  10  20
ROSWELL.........................  67  92  65  91 /  30  10  10  20
PICACHO.........................  61  85  58  84 /  30  10  10  20
ELK.............................  59  78  56  79 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52





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