Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 251151 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
551 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016
12Z TAF CYCLE
An upper level trough will track eastward along the CO/NM border
today with some showers and thunderstorms favoring the northern
and central mountains northwestward. Most of the convection will
occur in the early to mid morning with decreasing activity
thereafter, except for a few fresh cells over the northern
mountains in the afternoon.
.PREV DISCUSSION...257 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016...
Short wave trough approaching NM early this morning and will cross
the state today, followed quickly by drier air. Ridge of high
pressure builds over NM Wednesday, then drifts slowly to the
southeast Thursday and Friday. A weak short wave trough will pass
to our northwest Friday, but probably brings no precipitation.
Southwest flow this weekend and early next week. A few short waves
in this southwest flow aloft will only brush NM and provide little
hope for rain.
Showers developing and moving northeast across the western and
northern mountains. A few thunderstorms also near the AZ border.
Showers will continue to expand in coverage this morning western
to north central NM, then they will start to diminish this
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be in the mix as well.It
will be cooler most areas today behind a pacific cold front, but
temperatures will remain above normal.
Rain should be finished by evening with clearing skies tonight. It
will be noticeably cooler tonight with the help of a back door
cold front dropping south into the eastern zones.
High pressure will reestablish itself Wednesday with sunshine,
light winds and higher temperatures for most areas, the exception
being the eastern plains. The dry weather will continue late this
week and weekend as southwest flow develops and strengthens. A
couple of back door fronts will bring some cooling mainly to the
east Saturday and next Tuesday. There`s only a glimmer of hope for
rain in the northwest. The stronger of the two will be the second
trough which crosses the state next Wednesday. There may be enough
moisture ahead of this trough to generate a few showers over the
northwest Monday and Tuesday, but don`t hold your breath.
Northwest areas will be favored for a chance of showers and
thunderstorms today, as an upper level trough passes eastward over
the CO/NM border. The best chance for precipitation will be in the
morning, with spottier activity in the afternoon. Any wetting rain
should be isolated with small footprints.
A weak Pacific cold front will also cross from the west today,
dropping high temperatures a few to 8 degrees below Monday`s values
central and west. Nonetheless readings will remain around 6 to 16
degrees above normal. Ventilation should be very good or better most
places today as the upper trough passes to the north, and surface
winds will be gusty along and east of the northern and central
In the wake of the upper trough, a strong ridge of high pressure
will build over NM Wednesday through the end of the work week. Poor
ventilation will afflict central and western areas on Wednesday.
Vent rates should improve most places Thursday as low level flow
veers out of the south and becomes gusty in the east due to a lee
trough. Pockets of poor ventilation will then redevelop across
northern and west central areas Friday. A weak upper trough may
clip the Four Corners Friday, and send a weak Pacific front into the
state Friday night, leading to widespread poor ventilation on
Saturday. Ventilation should improve again Sunday when GFS and ECMWF
agree on an an upper level trough strengthening winds over NM as it
moves into the western US.