Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 301611
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1211 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REST WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. IT WAS A MILD MID DAY FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS.

WET AND VERY COOL START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACHES AND
A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL
WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MAINLY IN THE MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
CHILLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA


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