Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 051455
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1055 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING HIGHER EACH DAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
WE HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION. FOG HAS BURN OFF AND LOWERED CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY CONTINUE OT LIFT AND
BREAK UP. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
BASED MAINLY ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY SPEAKING...A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY FOG /ESPECIALLY
NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS/ OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...A PTSUNNY-MOSUNNY DAYS WITH
PTCLOUDY-MOCLEAR NIGHTS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO LABOR DAY SO THE UNCOMFORTABLE FACTOR WILL BECOME MORE
NOTICEABLE. NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. SBCAPES ALONG
AND NORTH OF I90 ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1K J/KG YET
FORCING REMAINS RATHER MEAGER. THE H850 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS CELSIUS ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL WSW WIND TRAJECTORY TO SUPPORT VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S /PERHAPS TOUCHING 90F IN SPOT/ WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE CHANGING DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THIS TO FULLY OCCUR.
INITIALLY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION...BUT THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BE SHIFTING EASTWARD...AS A
DIGGING TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES.

WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 18 DEGREES C AND 500 HPA HEIGHTS AROUND 1-
2 STD ABOVE NORMAL...MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. VALLEY HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S...AND MOUNTAINS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S. IT WILL ALSO BECOMING INCREASINGLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 60S AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

MOST AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS...AS THE BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY ALLOW A SHOWER OR T-STORM TO SNEAK INTO
THE AREA FROM WESTERN NY/LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. AS THIS FEATURE RUNS INTO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...IT
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...AND MAY START TO WASH OUT.
STILL...WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS TO ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE
MODELS STILL AREN/T IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE AND HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES OUT...SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
RATHER GENERIC AT THIS TIME UNTIL THE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LOW 80S. WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND...TEMPS ON FRI/SAT WILL
PROBABLY ONLY REACH INTO THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH HAS
ALLOWED FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING. WITH A
LIGHT E-NE FLOW IN PLACE...FEW-SCT STRATUS CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS
ARE NOW OVER CENTRAL NY. THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA STARTS TO DRIFT EASTWARD. IN
ADDITION...ANY REMAINING PATCHES OF RADIATIONAL FOG WILL BE
DISSIPATING AS WELL...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACT AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 12Z.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...SKIES LOOK TO BE NEARLY CLEAR WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE A VERY LIGHT WIND OF 5 KTS OR
LESS...MAINLY FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. WINDS SHOULD GO CALM AFTER
SUNSET. SOME RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
06Z...FOR KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM LATER MONDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MAXIMUM RH VALUES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 90 TO 100 PERCENT
RANGE WITH DEW FORMATION ONCE AGAIN.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM INTO THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE
WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 10 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING WEDNESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TOWARD THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.