Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 200747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
347 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MILD AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A THIN VEIL OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL STORM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WHICH WILL HEAD OUT TO SEA. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE
HEADING EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IT WILL BE A MILD DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS OUR DESPITE THE LOW CENTER TRACKING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AS CLOUDS START TO
INCREASE ACRS THE FA.

ON TUESDAY MORNING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FROM THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS OUR REGION AND THEN OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST AREAS WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH. H10-H8 THETA E RIDGE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
ACRS THE FA AT 18Z TUESDAY AND AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THAT IT MAY TAP SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE.
EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND TAPER
OFF DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. A LITTLE SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BEFORE THE PCPN TAPERS OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO START...AND END
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...WITH A PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
DIGGING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR WED-EARLY THU...WHICH MAY FORM
A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THIS DIGGING TROUGH SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS
SOME SHOWERS AROUND FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WED-WED NT. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE FURTHER EAST ON THU...AS A NARROW RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FOR THU-THU NT...ALONG WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.

FOR FRI-SAT...ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CLOUDS...AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM FRI AFTERNOON
INTO SAT. TEMPS MAY GET CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON FRI BEFORE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SAT DUE TO CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

HERE ARE SOME ADDITIONAL SPECIFICS...

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT THANKS TO THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE AS LOW AS -6
DEGREES OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER/MID 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALONG WITH GUSTY W-NW WINDS. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...THANKS TO PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SOME SHOWERS
OF WET SNOW/GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER TEMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLY
COOL FOR WED/THURS NIGHT WITH 30S...SOME 20S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
IT MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY ON THU...AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT TIGHT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEM...AND THE HIGH BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

FRI-SAT...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL RETURN THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
REGION FOR SOMETIME LATE FRI INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH...AS
SOME MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW IT MUCH SLOWER DUE TO THE SYSTEM
CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS LOOK WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
VALLEY TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR FRIDAY...AND LOW TO MID 60S
ON SATURDAY. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S...EXCEPT
FOR SOME 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY LATER TODAY. WE ONLY EXPECT OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF
HIGH CLOUDS TO PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 8 KT WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL THEN TREND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AT 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES BY SUNSET...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT KALB AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON RANGING
FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 60 TO 90
PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUMS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 25 TO
35 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL IS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY FALL. BASED ON
THE LATEST FORECAST...IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 2 PM.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION/RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
REGION. QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL/FRUGIS
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/IAA







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