Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 240602
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
200 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracking close to southern New England through today
will bring the chance for showers and perhaps an afternoon
thunderstorm to locations from the Capital Region south and east.
Weak high pressure will build east off the mid Atlantic states and
summer like weather will spread across our region from the southwest
through the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 145 AM EDT, clouds continued to slowly work north and westward
as a low pressure continued to track northward off the New Jersey
coast, toward Long Island. Bands of mostly light rain were working
into the southeastern portions of Litchfield county and even into
Dutchess. There were lighter returns noted as far north as the
Capital region, but these appear to be more bands of mid level
clouds and perhaps a few sprinkles.

Areas underneath the canopy of clouds have seen temperatures halt,
held to the mild lower or even mid 60s. Further north and west of
the Capital region where cloud cover was considerably thinner,
temperatures had slipped into the 50s.

For the remainder of the overnight, expect cloud cover to continue
to slowly expand and thicken. This increase in cloud cover should
keep temperatures falling that much more. We raised overnight lows
about a category in most places so look for lows generally 55-60,
except 50-55 across the northwestern zones (Adirondacks) as cloud
cover should remain thinner there.

Bands of light to perhaps moderate rain showers should slowly push a
little further north and west, reaching the Capital region shortly
after sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There is some consensus in guidance that the western edge of the
deeper clouds and better coverage of rain Tuesday should be from
about the Hudson Valley east through New England. So...showers in
the morning then showers and scattered thunderstorms in the
afternoon...lingering and decreasing in coverage Tuesday evening.
The upper low should steadily move northeast and allow for some
gradual clearing Tuesday night...with some patchy fog in places
depending on what areas see the most rain. Highs Tuesday in the
lower to mid 70s...but some upper 70s in western areas and maybe
parts of the southern Adirondacks where the coverage of clouds and
rain is expected to be the least.

On Wednesday...a weak upper impulse is expected to track
east...but mainly scrape northern areas with some scattered clouds
and isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Boundary layer temperatures should warm a bit and winds are
expected to be west to northwest...which should help temperatures
to rise into the lower to mid 80s...some upper 70s to around 80
northern areas.

By Thursday...the weak boundary that sinks south into our region
Wednesday and Wednesday night should track back north as a warm
front...with again...some scattered clouds...and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Boundary layer temperatures
warm a little more but winds should just be light. Temperatures
are expected to rise to the lower to mid 80s again...with upper
70s in northern areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
This will be an unsettled summer-like period with the risk of
showers and thunderstorms each day.  A warm front will begin to lift
through the region on Friday bringing unseasonable heat and humidity
to the region.  A high pressure ridge building in from the Atlantic
coupled with the lack of a frontal trigger should keep instability
at bay...perhaps just air mass style cells for the weekend.  High
pressure will re-position itself northward toward the Maritimes
coast...possibly setting up a backdoor front which will be just
south and west of our forecast area on Monday.  This could result in
temperatures a few degrees cooler.  But highs Friday through Sunday
will range from the mid 70s to the mid or upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
With increasing clouds, we do not expect much if any fog at any of
terminals overnight. Flying conditions look to remain VFR through at
least the morning peak.

Low pressure southeast of Long Island will continue to slowly track
northward toward southeast New England through the first half of
today.

Bands of light rain showers should begin impacting KPOU/KPSF before
12Z, reaching KALB shortly thereafter, and KGFL by 16Z. The rain
might be light enough for mainly VFR conditions. However we did
include a PROB30 at all the TAF sites for MVFR conditions due to a
reduction in visibility and cigs to 2-3 KFT midday into the
afternoon hours.

There is a slight chance for a rumble of thunder mainly south and
east of Albany but not enough confidence to mention in the TAFs in
any way.


Light and variable wind overnight will become north to northeast
once again later this morning and afternoon at 5-10 kt.


Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low pressure tracking close to southern New England tonight into
Tuesday will bring the chance for showers and perhaps an afternoon
thunderstorm to locations from the Capital Region south and
east. Weak high pressure will build east off the mid Atlantic
states and summer like weather will spread across our region from
the southwest through the end of next week.

Minimum RH values Tuesday afternoon will range from the 35 to 50
percent range in the west to 60 to 70 percent in the east in
areas of the best chances for rain. On Wednesday...minimum RH
values will be 35 to 50 percent in southern areas and western New
England with 55 to 70 percent in the western Mohawk Valley and
southern Adirondacks where scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible in the afternoon ahead of a weak cold front.

The surface wind will be light out of the north or northeast through
Tuesday, generally 5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at
10 to 15 mph...with a few gusts near 20 mph possible in the
afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.

Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms Tuesday. At this time amounts up to a tenth of an
inch in our northwestern zones, to quarter to half an inch in our
southeastern zones is anticipated. We do not expect this rainfall
to produce much if any rises on rivers streams and reservoirs.

There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS


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