Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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765
FXUS61 KALY 261053
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
653 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair weather is expected through the middle of the week as higher
pressure dominates. However, the weather turns unsettled as we
head into the latter part of the week and through the weekend as
fronts will across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Humidity levels will lower and be more comfortable today along
with fair weather. Higher pressure will build in; however flow
will be westerly so temperatures will continue to be quite warm.
Expecting highs mainly in the 80s with lower 90s in the portions
of the mid Hudson Valley and cooler readings in the mid to uper
70s across the southern Adirondacks and higher terrain of southern
Vermont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Fair weather and warmer/hot temperatures for Wednesday with the
possibility for some needed rain Thursday.

Ridging at the surface across the region will weaken while the
flow aloft flattens tonight and Wednesday. After a night with
seasonable temperatures, more comfortable for sleeping, Tuesday
night temperatures will be on the rise Wednesday. Expecting
highs into the lower 90s up the Hudson River Valley with 80s
across the rest of the forecast area even most of the higher
terrain.

A boundary will be approach from the north Wednesday night. A
southwest flow is expected to develop across the region
paralleling the boundary as a short wave rotates about the upper
level low over Hudson`s Bay and an additional weak short wave
which over topped the western ridge moves across the Great Lakes
region. There will be chances for isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms as the boundary moves gradually southward across
the region Thursday and Thursday night.

Thursday will be yet another very warm/hot day but not quite as
warm as Wednesday due an increase in clouds. Exception will be
across the mid Hudson Valley where highs in the lower 90s are
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
There remains a large spread in the guidance and a lot of uncertainty
in the long term for Friday into the weekend.

The latest consensus is for a sfc wave to move along a stationary
front south of most of the forecast area Friday into Friday night.
Some over running moisture and embedded convection may impact
locations especially from the Capital Region south and east.  The
GFS...Canadian GGEM...ECMWF...and a majority of the GEFS are
trending further south with this system compared to previous cycles.
Most of the guidance has quite a bit of moisture with this system.
The rain would be beneficial due to the abnormally dry...and drought
conditions across portions of the ALY fcst area.  For now...have
kept chance pops in for most of the fcst area with a slight chc of
thunderstorms. Highs will range from the mid 70s over the mtns to
lower 80s in many locations in the the valleys.  Lows will be in mid
50s to mid 60s across the fcst area with upper 60s over the mid
Hudson Valley.

Saturday-Saturday night...An upper level trough remains over the
upper MS River Valley and the western Great Lakes Region with zonal
flow eastward into the Northeast.  A brief break is possible in the
showers Saturday especially from the I-90 corridor northward...but
then another disturbance approaches from the central-eastern Great
Lakes region ahead of warm front.  Some scattered showers main move
in late in the day according to the ECMWF.  The GFS/Can GGEM are dry
with sfc high pressure building in.  To stay consistent with the
neighboring WFO`s a slight chc of showers was used from the Capital
Region north...and low chc to the south.  Temps will continue to be
seasonable for late July...and similar to Fridays.  The latest
superblend continues to favor the wetter ECMWF with the low-level
forcing increasing ahead of the warm front and approaching sfc wave
for a chc of showers Sat night. Some weak elevated instability is
indicated and a slight chc of thunder was kept in overnight.

Sunday into Monday...Sunday still looks wet and unsettled as the
warm front may buckle north of the Capital Region...and the sfc wave
will slowly move through.  Chances of showers and thunderstorms
continue Sunday...and diminishing Sunday night.  Despite lower
temps...humidity levels will remain high in the moist air mass. The
upper trough axis finally clears the fcst area Monday with still a
slight to low chance of showers.  Mid and upper level ridging begins
building in Monday night with fair weather on the horizon for
Tuesday.

Overall...temps are expected to be near normal in the long term with
pcpn normal to perhaps above normal for a change.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front continues to move across the region this morning.  High
pressure will build in from the Midwest and lower Great Lakes Region
late this afternoon and tonight.

SCT-BKN stratocumulus clouds with some cirrus will prevail late this
morning into the afternoon. Bases will generally be in the 3.5-5 kft
AGL.  The skies will clear towards 22Z-01Z/WED with the sfc ridge
building in.

Some MVFR/IFR radiational mist/fog is possible at KGFL/KPSF and
possibly KPOU after midnight.

West to southwest winds of 4-7 kts will increase from the W to NW at
around 8-13 kts in the afternoon before becoming light towards
00Z/WED.  A few gusts close to 20-25 kts are possible at KALB/KPSF
this afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Westerly wind today with gusts into the teens and lower 20s this
afternoon...

Minimum relative humidity values in the 30s Wednesday afternoon...

Fair weather is expected through the middle of the
week as higher pressure dominates. However, the weather turns
unsettled as we head into the latter part of the week and through
the weekend as fronts will across the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Fair weather is expected through the middle of the week as higher
pressure dominates. The weather turns unsettled as we head into
the latter part of the week and through the weekend as fronts will
across the region; however there is a lot of uncertainty in the
forecast. Please refer to the long term section for details.

Based on the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor released on July
21st east central New York and western New England are abnormally
dry to moderate drought conditions. Rainfall is needed.

Precipitation departures year to date at our climate sites are:
Albany NY: 5.61 inches below normal Glens Falls NY: 2.87 inches
below normal Poughkeepsie NY: 8.20 inches below normal Bennington
VT: 6.57 inches below normal Pittsfield MA: 5.91 inches below
normal

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Number of 90+ degree days so far this year through July 25th,
what is normal and the most that has occurred in a year.

Albany NY:
2016: 9 days
Normal: 10 days
Most: 32 days in 1955
Note: Daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls NY:
2016: 8 days
Normal: 6 days
Most: 22 days in 1988
Note records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie NY:
2016: 17 days
Normal: 15 days
Most: 30 days (numerous years most recent 2010, 2005 and 2002)
Most in July: 17 days back in 1955 (so far this year we have had
12 days with 3 more 90+ days in the forecast this month)

Note: Records date back to 1949, however data is missing from
January 1993 through July 2000

Pittsfield MA:
2016: 1 day
Normal: 2 days
Most: 7 days in 2010
Based on data dating back to 2000

Bennington VT:
2016: 2 days
Normal: 3 days
Most: 9 days in 2010
Based on data dating back to 2000

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



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