Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 301448
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1048 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT...LATE MORNING UPDATE MAINLY TO TWEAK SKY COVER
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE SHALLOW BACKDOOR FRONT
CONTINUE TO FILL IN MUCH OF THE REGION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
ADIRONDACKS, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME HOLES IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
12Z ALBANY SOUNDING CLEARLY SHOWED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP TO
2500FT, WITH AN INVERSION (AND DRIER AIR) ABOVE THAT. BECAUSE THIS
MOISTURE IS SO LOW LEVEL, A FEW OF THE PEAKS IN THE SOUTHERN
GREENS/BERKSHIRES ARE ACTUALLY STICKING UP ABOVE THE CLOUDS. THE
LOW LEVEL NATURE OF THE MOISTURE ALSO MAKES IT HARD FOR VARIOUS
GUIDANCE (EG MODELS) TO REALLY DEPICT IT VERY WELL. THUS WILL GO
WITH THE "WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE NOW, THAT IS WHERE THEY WILL
PROBABLY BE FOR A FEW HOURS MORE" TYPE OF FORECAST. THE LOWER SUN
ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR ALSO MAKES IT TOUGHER TO "BURN" THESE
CLOUDS OFF.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO MEAN A REDUCTION IN ANY SORT OF AFTERNOON
SHOWER CHANCE. HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT, AND PUSHED THE TIMING
A LITTLE BIT LATER (2PM OR SO AND ONWARD). SATELLITE AND RADAR
SHOWS THE SHOWERS (AND ISOLATED T-STORMS) JUST WEST OF BUFFALO AND
INTO OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST. LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OF THE UPPER LOW STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA. IF WE DO GET ANY SHOWERS, THEY WOULD BE RESTRICTED TO
THE AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE,
WHICH FOR THE MOST PART ARE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONLY OTHER ITEM TO MONITOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES. HELD STEADY WITH THE FORECAST OF UPPER 60S TO A FEW
LOWER 70S, HOWEVER THOSE PESKY CLOUDS COULD MEAN THINGS FALL A FEW
DEGREES SHORT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TOWARDS NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING /AND AMPLIFYING/ TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION TO
KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

THE UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  COMBINATION OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.  PER
THE ENSEMBLES...QPF/S BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED.  WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE IN `D0` PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR /ABNORMALLY
DRY/.  WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH BRISK AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.  IN FACT...THE DEGREE OF COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ACTIVATE LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  PER
TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE DACKS.  THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN BROAD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN COOL AND UNSETTLED.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  LATER THIS MORNING...THESE CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO A MORE MVFR THRESHOLDS AND MAY EVEN BREAK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING /HENCE THE TEMPO GROUPS/.

CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND/OR CONTINUE INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBILITY INTO IFR THRESHOLDS.  THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT THIS
TIME WILL BE KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT THIS MORNING...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND WILL BE
LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MANY RIVERS
AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE
AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL THAT SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







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