Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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977
FXUS61 KALY 242042
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
442 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair and warm weather will continue through this evening. A warm
front approaching from the west will bring some showers and
thunderstorms, along with humid conditions, to the region on
Thursday. On Friday, showers are possible again ahead of a cold
front. Fair and warm conditions are forecast for Saturday as high
pressure moves across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 426 PM EDT, skies remain mainly clear with winds generally
light and variable. Temperatures range from the upper 70s in the
hill towns to the mid 80s in the valleys. Fair conditions will
continue though sunset with just some high clouds streaming in
from the northwest this evening. KENX VAD wind profile still shows
boundary layer winds from variable directions of 10 knots or less.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight, mainly clear skies this evening, then some patchy
high/mid level clouds are expected to increase from NW to SE after
midnight as mid level warm advection strengthens. A few
showers/sprinkles could arrive across portions of the
western/southern Adirondacks close to daybreak at the leading edge
of warm front nears. It will be warmer and more humid than recent
nights, with lows mainly in the lower/mid 60s, except for some 50s
across higher terrain.

For Thursday-Thursday night, a theta-e ridge will be over the
area. The combination warmth, moisture, and upper level energy
should allow at least isolated/scattered showers to develop
Thursday. PWATs are forecast to approach 2 inches, so, locally
heavy downpours will be possible. Surface based instability
increases to around 1400 J/kg across the western Adirondacks and
Mohawk Valley late Thursday afternoon, and within portions of the
Hudson River Valley north of Albany, and less to the south and
east. It will be warm and humid, with daytime highs mainly in the
80s, and Thu night lows mainly in the 60s to lower 70s.

Friday-Friday night, a cold front will be slowly settling
southeast across the region Friday. Current timing suggests that
it passes through most areas N and W of Albany by midday, and
across southeast areas by late afternoon. Most of the upper level
support will lift well north and east of the region, with strong
upper level ridging building to the south. So, at this time, it
appears that only scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
should precede/accompany its passage, with the best chance for
rain mainly from the SE Catskills into the Berkshires, SE VT, mid
Hudson Valley and Litchfield CO CT during the early-mid afternoon
hours. A wide range in temperatures expected on friday with highs
across the western adirondacks in the upper 70s and max temps
reaching 85-90 in valley areas, perhaps even lower 90s across
portions of the mid Hudson Valley. Less humid for Friday night
with fair conditions, with lows mainly in the 60s across lower
elevations, and 50s for higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The strong upper ridge centered over the southeastern United States
is expected to weaken as we head into and through early next week.
Also, a short wave moving along the United States/Canadian border is
expected to press into the ridge and move across the Great Lakes
region and Northeast Sunday through Monday bringing a low pressure
system across the region. There are some timing and amplitude
differences amongst the models regarding this feature.

Ridging will be in control at the surface and aloft for at least the
for the first half of the weekend with fair and warm summer weather
with highs ranging mainly from the mid 70s to mid 80s. The surface
high will shift eastward off the New England coast Sunday with
the upper ridge flattening. At this time it appears Sunday should be
another day with fair weather however will bit warm temperatures and
higher dew points.

Our next chances for rain will are expected Sunday night and Monday
as the low pressure system approaches and moves through. Despite the
passage of the cold/cool front temperatures will continue to be
warm.  High pressure is anticipated to build back in at the
surface while the flow aloft remains flat so not sure how far south
the front will get before stalling.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will continue to slowly drift east of New England
tonight into tomorrow.  A disturbance ahead of a cold front will
bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region
tomorrow afternoon into the evening.

VFR conditions are expected prior to 04Z/THU at KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
with only a few to scattered cirrus clouds around.  The decoupling
of the winds and an increase in the low-level moisture will allow
for some patchy MVFR mist to form at KPOU and KGFL...and perhaps
IFR/LIFR mist/fog at KPSF.  The winds should increase enough at KALB
for VFR conditions overnight.

Mid and high clouds will also be increasing between 07Z-14Z with the
prefrontal trough ahead of the cold front.  The mist/fog should burn
off quickly around 12Z...and some showers may get close to KGFL
after noontime.  Clouds should be thickening and lowering into the
afternoon.

The winds will be south to southwest at 5-10 kts this
afternoon...and become light to calm at KPOU/KPSF/KGFL after
00Z/THU.  The channeled southerly flow up the Hudson River Valley
should allow for steady southerly winds around 10 kts at KALB
overnight with some gusts 15-20 kts.  The winds at all the TAF sites
will be in the 6-12 kt range with some gusts to 20 kts in the late
morning into the afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday and Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fair and warm weather will continue through this evening. A warm
front approaching from the west will bring some showers and
thunderstorms, along with humid conditions, to the region on
Thursday. On Friday, showers are possible again ahead of a cold
front. Fair and warm conditions are forecast for Saturday as high
pressure moves across the area.

The RH values increase to 80 to 100 percent tonight and drop to
45 to 65 percent on Thursday. Widespread heavy dew formation is
less likely tonight as some areas will maintain a south to
southwest wind overnight. RH recovers to 90-100 percent again on
Friday morning.

Light/variable winds will become south to southwest at 5-10 mph
tonight. South to southwest winds will increase to 10-15 mph
Thursday afternoon, and may occasionally gust up to 20-25 mph late
in the afternoon into Thursday night, especially in north/south
oriented valleys such as the Hudson Valley and also across higher
terrain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and
Friday. Most rainfall amounts should remain below an inch,
although locally higher amounts will be possible in thunderstorms.
Localized ponding of water in low lying/poor drainage and urban
areas will be possible late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night
in any heavier downpours.

Dry conditions are expected to return for Saturday into Sunday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...SND/KL
HYDROLOGY...SND



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