Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 040618
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
118 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...

LATEST KAMA VWP SHOWS GRADUAL VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS AS A WEAK
UPPER JET MAX MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SO FAR NOT MUCH
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS BEEN OBSERVED. THERE IS
STILL SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS PER SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE ACROSS A RESIDUAL EAST-WEST OUTFLOW AND WEAK TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. INCREASING CINH AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STABILIZE
HAS LEFT MODEST ELEVATED CAPE. STORM STRUCTURES HAVE NOT BEEN
PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED GIVEN WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR BUT COLD POOL
GENERATION AND AT LEAST SOME MOMENTUM ALOFT RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS DAYS
HAVE RESULTED IN MORE PROGRESSIVE CONVECTION LIMITING FLASH FLOOD
THREAT SOMEWHAT DESPITE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. GOES GPS INTEGRATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SHOWS A DOWNWARD TREND AND THIS MAY BE A
RESULT OF DRIER MID LEVELS ENCROACHING ON THE AREA AS SEEN IN LATEST
WATER VAPOR. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES IS WANING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. FULL AFD
COVERING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE SENT LATER THIS MORNING.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

AVIATION...
NEXT CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. DHT AND AMA SEEM TO STAND THE BEST CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. GUY
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...GUY
COULD HAVE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ON THE CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SITUATION CONTINUES TO SET UP FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ADVANCING INTO NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO INDUCE
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL TROF.  CURVATURE IN TIGHT 700 MB
CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO GENERATE VORTICITY LOBES WHICH WILL TRAVERSE
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  LOWER LEVELS WILL BE
MOISTENED FURTHER BY DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL JET
TONIGHT.  ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO MAKE A NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  SUCH A
COMPLEX COULD TAKE ON A LINEAR STRUCTURE...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

DUE TO RECENT COPIOUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH WAS
ISSUED EARLIER TODAY REMAINS IN EFFECT AREA WIDE FROM 4 PM TODAY
THROUGH 10 AM TUESDAY.  FULLY EXPECT TO CLEAR MOST OF AREA FROM WATCH
BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...BUT MAY STILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING IN
EASTERN SECTIONS AFTER DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED. DRY FORECAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/17




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