Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 100450

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1050 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016


For the 06Z TAFs:

A period of MVFR ceilings will be expected this morning. Confidence
is decent for these lower ceilings as several models are hinting at
this. There could be a brief period of reduced visibilities as well,
but these chances are best for KGUY and maybe KDHT. Wind speeds are
going to be key and may stay strong enough to impede these
visibilities from coming to fruition. Confidence was high enough to
omit any fog mention except BR for Guymon. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected for a majority of the TAF period.

Of other importance is the possibility for low level wind shear
between 00Z and 12Z Sunday. Models are hinting at a 50-55 knot jet
around 1,000 feet around the 06Z time period. With surface winds
around 15 knots this would be enough to consider this being placed in
the next TAF. Since we are far enough out, I leaned towards omitting
this mention for now.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 559 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/


VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the TAF period. Have
introduced some scattered low clouds around 3z-4z at all TAF sites as
soundings indicate a saturated low layer through about 15z. Not sure
if this will be enough for freezing fog, but we have a strong
inversion aloft and may see some low clouds. Don`t anticipate
IFR/LIFR but will not rule it out. For now just going with a SCT020
deck through 15z. Winds will range 5-15kts and be mainly out of the
south veering to the south southwest later in the TAF period.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 317 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

Dry northwesterly upper flow will allow for mainly high level clouds
through the weekend into the middle of next week. Surface trough to
the east of the Rockies across eastern Colorado and eastern New
Mexico will allow for a warmer southerly surface flow through
Saturday. A cold front will push through the forecast area Sunday
with colder surface high building down from the north and northeast
Sunday night. Surface high will slide off to the east and south
Monday with warmer southerly surface flow briefly returning Monday.
Another surge of colder air pushes south and west across the
Panhandles by late Monday and Monday night. Another surge of colder
air by late Wednesday and Wednesday night as much colder air out of
Canada plunges south across the Plains states through most of next
week. Temperatures during the latter half of next week may struggle
to get above freezing.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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