Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
FXUS64 KAMA 241720
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1220 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period. Winds will
be out of the southeast between 5 to 10 kts through around 09Z
Tuesday. Once we go past 09Z Tuesday, winds will shift to the
southwest and be sustained between 10-15 kts. Some mid to high sct
clouds will work into the region, but ceilings will remain the VFR
range throughout the TAF period.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 640 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/
VFR conditions will be expected throughout the entire 12Z
forecast period. Winds will shift to the southeast throughout the day
and then to more south to southwest once we go past 06Z Tuesday.
Winds will be between 5-10 kts. Some few/sct high clouds may work
into the region, but VFR ceilings will remain throughout the TAF
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 412 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/
No major changes have been made to the forecast: dry weather will
prevail through Sunday, with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms retained Tuesday evening for northeast and east-central
parts of the combined Panhandles.
Light southwest mid-level flow will prevail through Tuesday afternoon
and evening, when a shortwave trof migrates across the area. This
feature may be strong enough to cause isolated showers and
thunderstorms to develop along a surface trof/dryline feature where
fairly rich but shallow moisture is expected to lie across eastern
sections. Cloud cover on Tuesday is expected to limit insolation
with a real possibility that the atmosphere may remain capped. If
cap can be broken, convective instability and modest shear may result
in strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. See convective
outlook from SPC.
Weak cold front Tuesday night produces little temperature change for
Wednesday and Thursday. Friday expected to be the warmest and
breeziest day of the forecast, with a few locations reaching 90
degrees Fahrenheit. Cooler on Saturday and Sunday with highs in the
70s, still above climo. 03
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TREND TO EAST AND THEN
SOUTH DURING THE DAY. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE INTO
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES...WHERE THE STRONGER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY...
WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH WARM CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. 03