Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 241544

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
944 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...Idaho and eastern Oregon will be under the influence
of split flow aloft, as weak upper level troughs remain in position
over western Montana and central California, respectively. Boundary-
layer moisture is enough to warrant another round of showers and
afternoon thunderstorms today, mainly over higher terrain. Any
rainfall over the Treasure and Magic Valleys will be very light.
Temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal normals.
Winds will be predominantly west/northwest 5 to 15 mph. Current
forecast is on track; no updates at this time.


.AVIATION...VFR across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho today.
Mid-level ceilings between 12-14k with isolated showers this
morning. Activity will increase over mtns this afternoon with
isolated thunderstorms developing after 20z. Gusty winds to 30 kts
possible near afternoon showers and storms. Away from showers and
storms, westerly/northwesterly winds to 15 kts surface through
10k feet msl.


SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...Mean upper level trough
will continue to impact the region through Wednesday. Disturbances
moving through the flow, as well as diurnal heating, will
encourage scattered showers each afternoon (mainly over the higher
terrain), tapering off each evening. Instability parameters will
be better today and Wednesday, therefore have included a slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening forecast.
Winds will be light through the period, except gusty near
thunderstorms. Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal.

LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Monday...The extended starts
with a brief break in the unsettled weather as the upper trough
that is over the region in the short term kicks east only to be
replaced by another upper low Friday. This next upper low will
last through the weekend and into early next week. Snow levels
are expected to lower to around 5500 feet across the north to
6500 feet along the Nevada border by Saturday morning.
Temperatures will remain below normal through the extended with
afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms mainly over
the higher terrain.





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