Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 020252
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
852 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
OWYHEE COUNTY PROMPTED A FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING.
SINCE THEN...THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
NOTED ON RADAR NEAR THE OREGON/NEVADA BORDER. THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO END BY LATE THIS EVENING. ON THURSDAY...THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL RESIDE NEAR NEVADA BORDER. IT WILL
BE ANOTHER HOT DAY AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO END
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE
WINDS...12 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST TO NORTHWEST 10-20 KTS
UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEW
MEXICO TO SRN OREGON.  MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
CALIF SIERRA NEVADA WILL HELP FORM THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
NV/OR BORDER LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
NEVADA WILL GET AS FAR NORTH AS THE NV/ID BORDER.  ABOUT THE SAME
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS.  NO STORMS EXPECTED IN THE
REST OF OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY.  A DEGREE OR TWO HOTTER THURSDAY
THEN LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
IS BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE NEAR 140W.
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY THEN BACK TO WESTERLY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS DROP
SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN WEST COAST AND THEN MOVE EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.  FIRST TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT.  EVEN THOUGH MODELS AGREE ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEY DISAGREE ON LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE.  AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SHIFT
TO HIGHER TERRAIN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE GFS
BEING THE WETTEST AND THE ECMWF THE DRIEST.  SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE
AND ANY MOISTURE THAT MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JA


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