Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 251027
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
327 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SW IDAHO MTNS WILL REACH 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH EVEN GREATER DEPARTURES /15-20 DEGREES/ ACROSS
SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL TOUCH 60. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MAKE FOR A STEEP INVERSION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST MODELS ALL MAINTAIN A
STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE WIND FROM THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY TO ABOUT THE ADA/CANYON COUNTY LINE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR TODAY EXPECT THE WIND TO CONTAIN THE FOG OR LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO SE OREGON AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY IN SW
IDAHO. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY /KONO-
KEUL/. THERE IS A CHANCE LOW CLOUDS COULD FILL IN ACROSS THE REST
OF THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH CURRENT CLOUD
COVER IN THE UPPER SNAKE BASIN SHOULD IT START TO ADVANCE
WESTWARD.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ORIGINS IN THE MEXICAN
BAJA MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA. BY TUESDAY THIS TROUGH WILL BE
SPREADING PRECIP CHANCES IN ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER THEN TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. MODELS ARE STARTING TO BECOME MORE IN AGREEMENT OF THE
TROUGH TURNING AND MAKING A MORE ENE TRAJECTORY AS IT APPROACHES
IDAHO. THEREFORE...BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
MOSTLY IN IDAHO AND LESS SO IN EASTERN OREGON. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 4500-5500 FT. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OFF OF THE MEXICAN BAJA IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND KEEP OUR AREA IN A SPLIT FLOW
WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
NONETHELESS...THURSDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS/VIS...MAINLY IN THE TREASURE
MAGIC AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PERIODS OF VFR MAY EXIST IN THESE AREAS DURING DAYLIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NEAR KONO MAY NOT. EXPECT
VFR EVERYWHERE ELSE. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NORTH AT 20-30KTS...THEN AFTER
25/21Z...VARIABLE AT 15KTS OR LESS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP


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