Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 311505
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
905 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...NEW NAM ROUTES INITIAL MID/HIGH LEVEL MONSOON
MOISTURE NWD THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON THEN NEWD ACROSS THE
WALLOWAS AND INTO CENTRAL IDAHO LATE TODAY.  LOWER LEVELS
WILL STAY DRY AND NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN OUR
CWA BORDERS.  MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH SATURDAY FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN HARNEY COUNTY
AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WRN BAKER COUNTY.  A COUPLE DEGS
WARMER TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY.
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE GREATEST LATE SUNDAY IN OREGON
AND MONDAY IN IDAHO.  NO FORECAST CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT...
VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LEADING EDGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE HAS MADE IT A BIT FASTER INTO S-CENTRAL OREGON WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE CA/OR BORDER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS LAID OUT FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO
SOUTHERN UT...DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUS SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL
STAY ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON TODAY. THOUGH SE OREGON ZONES REMAIN
DRY TODAY THEY WILL SEE MORE CLOUD COVER FROM AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HEAT CONTINUES TO BUILD
FROM YESTERDAY AS VALLEYS PUSH TO AROUND 100 AND MTN VALLEYS TO
AROUND 90. ON SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST WHICH WILL DRAW MONSOON MOISTURE INTO SE OREGON. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT DEVELOPMENT OVER HARNEY COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT GIVEN HOW FAST THE INITIAL SURGE HAS MOVED NORTHWARD MALHEUR
COUNTY /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NV BORDER/ AND MTNS IN BAKER COUNTY
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE RISE IN TEMPERATURES FLATTENS ON
SATURDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 DEGREES OF WARMING FROM TODAY/S
HIGHS. WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE MONSOON AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL HELP IN DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS AT FIRST AS THE HIGH SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES EAST.
A TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE REGION RIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
CONTINUING THE UNSTABLE TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS EACH DAY.
BEGINNING THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES OUT AND THE TROUGH MOVES IN...CLOUD COVER WILL BE
A FACTOR AS WELL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....AB


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