Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 062107
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
307 PM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND UTAH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL ACT ON MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT INDEED LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE THE CASE AS RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW THUNDERSTORMS
ERUPTING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH WHICH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH
IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
AN A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...FEEL THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS OF MORE CONCERN. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS AND
MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLEY HEAVY RAIN WITH POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR
COUNTIES ON THE OREGON SIDE AND SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER ON THE
IDAHO SIDE. OTHER HYDRO CONCERN IS IN THE BRUNEAU RIVER BASIN...
SPECIFICALLY ON THE EAST FORK OF THE JARBIDGE RIVER. HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWMELT IN ADDITION TO RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FLOWS
ON THE RIVER THROUGH MURPHY HOT SPRINGS WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING
ALONG THE RIVER POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER DOWN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MUCH LESS COVERAGE AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND LESS CLOUDS
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DOMINATING UPPER CLOSED LOW
WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY NORTHEASTWARD...AS A TROUGH DESCENDS OUT
OF CANADA AND HELPS USHER THE LOW OUT OF THE REGION. COULD SEE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO SUNDAY AS THE TWO LOWS INTERACT. WINDS
WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM THE DAY BEFORE AS SKIES
CLEAR. AS THE DESCENDING TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES...SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO ABOUT 6.5K TO 7.5K MSL...AS WELL AS THE CONTINUATION
OF SHOWERS ANS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BLUE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME. BEGINNING
TUESDAY...A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET IN OVER THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN...REACHING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY SOUTH OF A KBNO-
KBOI-KSNT LINE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH...WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVY RAIN. SURFACE WINDS... NORTHERLY 10-20 KTS...DIMINISHING AFTER
06Z. THUNDERSTORM GUSTS TO 35 KTS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...NORTHEAST 20-30 KTS...TURNING EAST 15-25 KTS BY MORNING.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY...DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. BY
SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOSTLY
ISOLATED TO SW IDAHO. GUSTS TO 35 KTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY...UP TO 20 KTS SUNDAY. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IDZ015-029-030.
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM....AB/WH
AVIATION.....AB


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