Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 290747
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION CONTINUING TO BRING CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY... BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NEW
ENDLAND THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS. 1000-700MB RH WILL BE LESS THAN 40% THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE CLEAR SKIES AND SHIFT IN
WINDS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE MID 30S TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT SUNDAY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH
DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE
OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE
PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN
SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES.

COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH
FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED
AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A
DUSTING TO AN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. THE BIGGEST QPF REGION WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WONT BE VERY STRONG AND THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT
THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER
FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW
REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE
TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SW
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT.
VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT
KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-OVC120-150
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO 12-15KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT
OF GREAT LAKES.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.