Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 271107
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
707 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will be the rule across the North Country
right through the entire Memorial Day weekend. High temperatures
will be on the order of 10 to 20 degrees above normal for this
time of year. In addition...higher dew points will lead to more
humid conditions and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will
exist...especially on Sunday and Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 707 AM EDT Friday...Warm air advection precipitation has
ended across Vermont this morning and clouds associated with it
have also be decreasing in areal coverage. Also seeing some clouds
associated with shortwave trough moving across Quebec Province
this morning. But as this cloud cover exits later this morning...
sunshine combined with warmer 925/850 mb temperatures than
yesterday suggests high temperatures should be in the 80s across
the entire area...which will be about 10 to 20 degrees above
normal for this time of year. This combined with dew points around
60 suggest instability should develop to enhance the potential for
convection this afternoon and evening. Weak ridging aloft and lack
of a well defined forcing mechanism suggests the terrain will be
the main driving force for any convection. Do not feel the
convection will be widespread as parameters for organized
convection are limited. Nevertheless...looking for precipitation
probabilities in the slight chance to chance category...especially
from the northern Adirondacks eastward. Brief heavy downpours
would be the main threat with any of the convection. As the
atmosphere stabilizes tonight... convection should end by
midnight. Higher dew points now in the area suggest overnight lows
will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s...which is 10 to 17 degrees
above normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 423 AM EDT Friday...saturday and saturday night will be
mainly dry and warm with large upper level ridge over the area as
well as high pressure at the surface. temperatures will be almost
twenty degrees warmer than normal for maximum temperatures as they
nudge 90 in the warmest spots. on sunday upper level ridge will
finally begin to slide eastward away from our area...upper level
trof will approach from the great lakes region. upper level
shortwaves move into our area and showers will become likely by
the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 423 AM EDT Friday...sunday night into monday a cold front
will approach from the great lakes region with a low lifting well
north of our area. cold front will move across the area during the
daytime hours and showers will be likely for monday. then upper
level flow will become more flat and westerly and a ridge of
surface high pressure builds into the north country. drier warm
weather will continue from tuesday through thursday. next chance
for showers will be friday as another cold front approaches from
the west.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Expect VFR conditions through much of the
period...but there will be a potential for MVFR and possibly IFR
conditions for ceilings and visibilities after 06z. This is when
deeper moisture moves in and combined with any residual moisture
from rainfall this afternoon and evening. The best potential for
showers or thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will generally
be between 20z and 03z. Winds will generally be under 10 knots
through the period.

Outlook 12Z Saturday through Tuesday... Mainly VFR with a daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through
Monday time frame.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Friday and Saturday will see the warmest temperatures of 2016
thus far. The average first date of 90F or higher for Burlington
VT is June 20th. The earliest occurrence in the calendar year of
90F was April 17, 2002.

Record maximum temperatures for Friday 5/27 and Saturday 5/28 are as
follows:                   5/27         5/28
BTV - Burlington        91 in 1944    92 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        88 in 1960    88 in 1978
MSS - Massena           89 in 1978    89 in 1978
St Johnsbury            89 in 1914    93 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            76 in 1978    77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Evenson/Lahiff
CLIMATE...KGM



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