Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 030718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
318 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. BEHIND THIS FRONT SEASONABLY COOLER AIR
WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY AUGUST NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT MONDAY...POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TODAY AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
MAKES FURTHER INROADS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL TAKE THE SHAPE OF
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 925-850 MB PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL SWING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A FEW OF THE STORMS TRENDING STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE FROM MID- AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO EARLY EVENING PER
LATEST SPC SWODY1, BUT AS TYPICAL WITH SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES IN
OUR REGION IT`S NEVER CLEAR CUT. WORKING IN FAVOR OF MORE ROBUST
ACTIVITY WILL BE UPPER DYNAMICAL JET SUPPORT, DECENT LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID-LEVELS AND MORE THAN ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL BULK
SHEAR. WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
HOWEVER, MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SB CAPE VALUES LIKELY TO RANGE
ONLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. IN
ADDITION UNIDIRECTIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR WEST, THUS PVA VALUES
WON`T BE THAT GREAT. FINALLY, WE`LL BE DEALING WITH AT LEAST SOME
HIGHER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS MORNING`S DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID WE`RE STILL
EXPECTING A GENERAL REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHICH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EASTERN VERMONT BY THE
EVENING HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY VARIOUS CAM OUTPUT. GIVEN
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FIELDS, LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WITH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND REPORTS
OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE 2-10 PM TIME FRAME. HIGHS TODAY WILL
REMAIN WARM (80S), ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY NEAR 90F
ALONG THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE A GREATER DEGREE OF SUNSHINE
SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT MONDAY...EVENING CONVECTION THEN WANES ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO NH/MA WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STILL COULD SEE A FEW TAIL-END SHOWERS AS THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD TREND WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 OR VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES BODILY EASTWARD
AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR
TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE ARRIVAL TIMES
(FOR SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED, FOCUSED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD TREND
GRADUALLY COOLER OVER TIME WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, THEN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S, LOCALLY NEAR 60
ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE
MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL
DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS
SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...ASIDE FROM VFR/MVFR RAIN FROM WEAKENING
GREAT LAKES MCS AFFECTING MSS THROUGH 12Z, VFR ELSEWHERE. GREATER
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO AVIATION MONDAY WITH PROSPECTS FOR STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

MCS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS NEARING
EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MSS
SHORTLY. I CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND WILL AMEND IF A
MORE IMMINENT THREAT BUT FOR NOW I`VE TREATED AS 6SM RA. LOOKS TO
BE THE ONLY SITE WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHELRY WIND
FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUPPORTING POTENTIAL LLWS AT MSS AND SLK.
ASIDE FROM THAT, VFR SCT HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 10-12 KTS.

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM GREAT LAKES. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRIMARY RISK
AREA WOULD BE FROM SLK AND POINTS EAST. I`VE SHOWN 6SM +SHRA IN
TAFS, TIMING 18-20Z THRU 01Z PER LATEST HI- RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, TURBULENCE AND LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS
DURING THE DAY BUT TEND TO STAY SUSTAINED AT 10-12 KTS TOWARD
EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. GUSTY
WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD
LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4
FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PLANNING TO BE OUT ON THE LAKE
MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...JMG



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