Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 061356
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
956 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW EVOLVING UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR DRIVER OF THE NORTH COUNTRY`S
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNNIER SKIES AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY WITH SOME LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. A COLD FRONT BRINGS A GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND, WITH A RETURN TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 0955 AM EDT FRIDAY...AS PROMISED, WE WILL FINALLY SEE SOME
SUNNIER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CAROLINA`S THIS MORNING BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD TO THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. WE`LL START THE DAY MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER VERMONT, BUT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHWARD CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILL BACK IN
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED, WE`LL
HAVE LITTLE DYNAMICAL FORCING OVER THE AREA, SO ANY SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY TERRAIN AND DIURNAL HEATING, AND MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER ZONES CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH PEAK HEATING, WE`LL FINALLY
REALIZE SOME NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS WE MIX
TO AT LEAST 925MB WHERE TEMPS OF +12-14C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 60S AT THE SURFACE, LOCALLY AT/NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN
AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. SOME SMALL TWEAKS MADE TO THE THE TEMPS
AROUND LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS TEMPS THERE ARE LAGGING BEHIND INLAND
TEMPS BY ABOUT 7-8F. THAT GAP SHOULD CLOSE AS THE DAY PROGRESS.
BEYOND THAT THE FORECAST LOOKS SOUND FOR THE MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT, I MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SOME LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE PIVOTS THROUGH THE
AREA, BUT BY AND LARGE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER LOW GYRES AROUND THE DC AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD, HOLDING IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT FRIDAY... BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR
OUT AND LIFT BODILY NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AS BACKGROUND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN CANADA. WHILE I
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS, VERTICAL MOTIONS ARE WEAK AND WITH FAIRLY PALTRY UPPER
DYNAMICAL SUPPORT I FEEL MOST OF THE DAY WON`T BE TOO BAD WITH
JUST VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THIS
WILL DEFINITELY BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION WITH ITS
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHOWERS. PWATS AREN`T ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE (~ 0.75 INCHES) BUT FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF
HIGH POPS (60-80%) DURING THIS PERIOD. BY LATER SUNDAY PRIMARY UPPER
SUPPORT PULLS EAST WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WANING OVER TIME
ALONG WITH SOME PEAKS OF LATE DAY SUN, ESPECIALLY WEST. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DO TREND RATHER COOL BY EARLY MAY STANDARDS, AND WITH
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING A LIGHT JACKET WILL COME IN
HANDY AS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 50S, PERHAPS A FEW
UPPER 40S IN HIGHER ELEVATION COMMUNITIES OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT FRIDAY... AFTER A CHILLY START MONDAY MORNING
(30S TO AROUND 40) THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS NOW LOOKING
REASONABLY GOOD WITH LATEST TRENDS IN THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT
SUGGESTING OUR AREA WILL REMAIN GOVERNED BY CONFLUENT
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. INDEED,
LATEST INCOMING PROGS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE
STREAKING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST BENEATH THIS FLOW REGIME WILL
LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR REGION DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME. AS A MATTER OF COURSE I`VE LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT FROM
OUR PRIOR FORECAST, THOUGH MAINTAINED AT LEAST SOME CONTINUITY OUT
OF RESPECT FOR LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IN THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. THIS
WOULD STILL OFFER A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THIS PERIOD, BUT
TREND TOWARD A DRIER SCENARIO. OUTSIDE THAT CHILLY MONDAY START
BLENDED MODEL 925-850 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT SEASONAL MID-SPRING
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE LATE/SOUTH.
WE START THE DAY GENERALLY SKC TO A FEW CIRRUS, BUT A SCT-BKN MID
DECK WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR KRUT, POSSIBLY KSLK. AFTER SUNSET, CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY, BUT MAINLY AT
KSLK/KMPV/RUT, WITH GENERALLY VFR NORTHWARD. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
NORTH/NORTHEAST, SLIGHTLY STRONG AT 10-15KT AT KPBG, 5-10KTS
ELSEWHERE BEFORE ABATING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z SAT - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS.
00Z SUN - 06Z MON: MVFR IN FRONTAL SHOWERS.
06Z MON - 00Z WED: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/MV
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF


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