Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 281435
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1035 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A closed upper low over the western Great Lakes will move slowly
south into the Ohio valley and will linger there through Saturday.
A ridge of high pressure over eastern Quebec and Labrador will
build slowly southwest into the region through Friday, with
mostly fair and dry weather expected over the north country. The
closed upper low over the Ohio Valley will move north into the
Great Lakes this weekend, and will bring increasing chances for
rain showers into the north country from Friday night through this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 1035 AM EDT Wednesday...Morning satellite and upper air
analysis shows that not a whole lot has changed from yesterday in
regards to the synoptic pattern that we expect to see across the
North Country over the next 24 hours. Slow moving vertically
stacked low pressure system which was over Lake Superior
yesterday, drifted south overnight and is now gyring over the
southern tip of Lake Michigan. a A mid-level dry slot out ahead of
the system continues to dominate the North Country`s weather with
dry conditions expected for today and tonight. As expected though,
last night a dense marine layer built into portions of eastern
Vermont on southeast flow, and surprisingly into the northern St.
Lawrence Valley on northeast flow. These clouds currently persist,
but expect that as we go through the afternoon drier air aloft
will eventually win out and conditions will trend towards partly
sunny. 925mb temps are very similar to yesterday, except across
eastern Vermont where they`re a little cooler, so highs today
should top out in the low 60s east to low 70s west.

For tonight, not a whole lot of change in the upper levels as the
upper low only dives slightly south into the Ohio River Valley,
but the surface to mid-level flow become more southerly allowing
some enhanced moisture to begin to build northward into the BTV
CWA. Partly clear skies to begin the night will gradually increase
from south to north likely becoming mostly cloudy by sunrise but
will only be mid/high deck which will only limit surface temps
minimally. Lows should run right around seasonal normals, maybe a
tad warmer, and generally range through the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday...The synoptic scale setup continues
to feature a closed 5h cyclonic circulation over the ohio valley
with building ridge and associated surface high pressure over
southern canada for Thursday into Friday. Weak spokes of energy
rotate around 5h circulation....along with ribbons of enhanced
moisture...but weaken across southern vt as they encounter dry
air/subsidence. Given the sharp moisture gradient and associated
qpf fields continued to mention schc 15 to 20% Thursday Night with
chance pops for Friday...mainly across our southern section. Still
some uncertainty with regards to how much low level Atlantic
moisture advects into our eastern section on 975 to 925mb winds of
15 to 25 knots. Based on less clouds will mention highs lower 70s
Northern Saint Lawrence Valley with lower 60s southeast VT for
both Thursday and Friday with lows mainly in the 40s colder
mountain valleys to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday...Closed 5h circulation over the Ohio
Valley slowly lifts toward our region...with deeper moisture and
higher pops chances for the weekend. Still not expecting a
washout...but several rounds of showers are possible as 5h vort
lobes and favorable upper level divergence moves across our
region. Furthermore...southerly flow at 500 mb...with easterly
850mb flow will help advect higher pw values near 1.40" across our
region over the weekend. Once again pops will be mainly in the
chance category with highest qpf values confined to the mountains
of vt and parts of the dacks on Saturday and Sunday. Plenty of
clouds and little 925mb to 850mb change in temps...will result in
highs mainly in the 60s and lows mid 40s to mid 50s. A few
lingering showers are possible on Monday...but as building high
pres from central canada develops...expect areal
coverage/intensity of showers to decrease with mainly dry
conditions by Tuesday. Slightly cooler temps follow departing trof
with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s for early next
week. The bufkit profile at BTV thru 180 hours continues to show
<0.10" of qpf (very light) and near 0.50" at VSF...indicating the
qpf gradient.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through the
period, except for areas of MVFR ceilings across eastern, north
central, south central and northest Vermont at this time.
expecting mainly VFR conditions by 18Z Wednesday.

Outlook 12z Thursday through Sunday...

12z Thu - 00z Fri: Mainly VFR.

00z Fri - 00z Mon: Mainly VFR with MVFR in rain showers possible,
especially on Saturday/Sunday.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...WGH/Lahiff



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