Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 211704
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
104 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 104 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST STILL GENERALLY HOLDING UP
WELL...WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNING STILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREENS. MEANWHILE...CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY DOWN INTO CENTRAL NY...IN A MODEST TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS /SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG PER 16Z LAPS ANALYSES/. THIS
HAS BEEN DEPICTED WELL BY 12Z WRF-ARW AND THE BTV-4 SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY. EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ESSEX COUNTY NY AND RUTLAND COUNTY VT BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES (PW`S 1.6-1.8") AND
TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. ALL THIS IS COVERED WELL IN GOING
FORECAST AND HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY/CPV ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL VT. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WL MENTION MAINLY VFR IN THE PREVAILING GROUP
WITH TEMPO FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM BTWN 12-15Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WL BE POSSIBLE
ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS. A SLOW CLRING TREND
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 21Z...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS. THINKING CLOUDS AND
WINDS WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








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