Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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080
FXUS61 KBTV 302348
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
748 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent, cool northerly flow along with increasing clouds
will keep max temperatures in the mid 40s across the North
Country this afternoon. A large strengthening low pressure
system over the Ohio valley region will lift a warm front
through New England bringing scattered showers through the rest
of the afternoon and into this evening. By late Monday night the
low pressure system will bring a cold front through with the
potential for some embedded thunderstorms and gusty winds
starting a period of unsettled weather through the mid week.
Another low pressure system looks to affect the region late in
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 747 PM EDT Sunday...In general, the previous forecast is
in good shape but did opt to make some slight changes to temps
and precip chances for the overnight hours and into early Monday
morning based on the latest HRRR/RAP trends. The new forecast
highlights increased chances for showers a little further south
of the intl border, along with slightly cooler temps to start
the evening. Otherwise no other changes made at this time.

Previous Discussion...The warm conveyor belt of the maturing
cyclone is easily viewed on latest GOES-16 satellite and is
pushing warmer air and moisture through the Great Lake and into
Ontario/Quebec in Canada. During the evening hours tonight
expect the warm front to finally lift north and get into that
more moist environment and become the forcing for showers
generally along the international border.

As the aforementioned warm air advection arrives late,
anticipate temps warming throughout the evening as we move
solidly into the warm sector. Our overnight "lows" will be
reached right at 0z and we should warm into the upper 40s to low
50s west of the Greens. East of the greens and in the northern
Saint Lawrence valley expect temps to be much cooler given the
local wind flow. We stay locked into northeast flow at Massena
which will mean temps end up 5-10 degrees cooler than southern
Saint Lawrence county. East of the Greens the winds stay
easterly which will be advecting in the colder marine layer and
thus low 40s can be expected though the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 253 PM EDT Sunday...Expect an active pattern through the
early week as a cold front will move through during the late
afternoon/evening hours on Monday. A deepening low pressure
system will be tracking well to the west of the North Country on
Monday with strong warm air advection surging into the region.
With the warm front to our north and the cold front still well
to our west, expect most of the day on Monday to be warm and
quiet setting the calm before the storm.

The cold front will begin to track into the North Country
during the overnight hours and its quite robust with strong
surface convergence and sharp thermal 925mb gradient associated
with the front. A strong 850-700mb low level jet will develop
and track up the Saint Lawrence resulting in moderately strong
0-6km shear and with marginal surface based cape expect some low
topped convection to develop. The CAM models show this well and
so tomorrow night expect a convective fine line to develop and
track through the Saint Lawrence producing gusty winds and brief
heavy rain. I did go ahead and add in the mention of heavy
rain/gusty winds into the weather grids as thunderstorm threats
for tomorrow evening. The dynamics aren`t as strong as the fine
line moves into the Champlain Valley and the rest of Vermont so
I only mentioned those storm attributes for the Saint Lawrence
Valley.

Showers will continue into Tuesday as energy rounds the bottom
of the upper level trough and moisture stays in place. Expect
isolated to scattered showers with some terrain enhancement to
persist throughout the day. With the synoptic flow oriented
southwest to northeast expect channeled flow up the Saint
Lawrence with gusty winds 20-30mph possible during the
afternoon hours.

Temps will be tricky on Monday. The low level flow east of the
Greens stays mostly from the east and so the marine airmass will
dominate keeping temps in the upper 50s to low 60s. Similarly
over the northern Saint Lawrence valley the flow will stay
locked into northeast and so temps will be some 15-20 degrees
cooler in Massena than it will near Tupper Lake and Wanakena. In
the Champlain valley, we`ll be the benefactors of strong warm
air advection and we should see temps rise to upper 60s to low
70s Monday afternoon. Overnight the temps will fall behind the
cold front but only marginally as the flow will still be
southwesterly so anticipate lows in only falling to the 50s
overnight. With the showers and cloud cover on Tuesday our highs
are only expected to rise into the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 303 PM EDT Sunday...Forecast remains on track for a
rather unsettled pattern through much of the extended forecast
period. Upper trough moving across eastern Canada Tuesday night
into Wednesday will have enough dynamic support to enhance
precipitation chances across the area...especially over the
mountains. Plenty of clouds will also exist and this will keep
highs on Wednesday in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Wednesday
night into Thursday looks to be about the only dry period in the
extended as upper trough moves far enough away from the area
and high pressure builds in. Should see some sunshine and high
temperatures getting into the upper 50s to lower 60s...which
will be right around seasonal normals. The pattern then changes
significantly with rather large upper trough taking shape over
the eastern third of the country. This feature will be slow to
move northeast right through the weekend and eventually closes
off over the Northeast and eastern Canada by later in the
weekend. Expect quite a bit of clouds and precipitation during
this period as pronounced southerly flow gets established
Thursday night into Friday for the first surge of widespread
rain followed by stronger dynamic support enhancing
precipitation once again Saturday into Sunday. The clouds and
precipitation will limit temperatures from falling significantly
and thus looking at temperatures generally at or slightly below
seasonal normals. Looks like colder air does not move in until
we get on the backside of the upper low early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Overall trend through the period will be a
gradual lowering from VFR to MVFR from west to east as scattered
rain showers this evening become more prevailing/widespread
across northern terminals. Light and variable winds shift to the
southeast towards midnight at 5-15kts, with the exception being
KMSS where northeasterlies will persist helping to lower cigs
to IFR after midnight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely RA.
Friday: VFR/MVFR. Definite RA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal/Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Lahiff



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