Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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418
FXUS61 KBTV 090335
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1035 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area tonight bringing much colder air
and scattered snow showers. High temperatures from Friday through
Sunday are forecast only in the 20s. A weak ridge of high
pressure will be over the region on Saturday, with fair and dry
weather expected. There will be chance for additional light snow
and snow showers across the north country from Sunday through
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 1026 PM EST Thursday...Two distinct snow bands moving
across or just into our region at this time. The first is moving
across Adirondacks and will enter Champlain valley between 11
and Midnight. It doesn`t look overly exciting and organized but
certainly some moderate snow at times albeit brief. The second
area moving into St. Lawrence valley is associated with cold
front and appears to have greater organization/intensity. This
will follow the first by 2-3 hours.

Therefore have upped pops a bit by delaying arrival/exit from
earlier fcst but everything else remains the same. Some
accumulation and slick roads...esp after 2nd line as
temperatures fall well below freezing with the front.

Previous Discussion...Composite radar loop showing persistent
lake effect snow band has moved south into the southern
Adirondacks. Additional scattered snow showers showing up on
radar across most of the Burlington forecast area. Temperatures
are mainly in the 30s in the valleys with 20s over hill towns.
There are breaks in the clouds east of the high terrain due to
downsloping winds. Mostly cloudy conditions elsewhere.

Winds still from the west southwest and will remain there until
next cold front crosses the forecast area overnight when winds
will become northwest. Front should be through all but Rutland and
Windsor Counties by 2 AM. There will likely be some additional
snow showers for all areas associated with the cold front as it
passes through. Colder tonight with lows in the teens and
twenties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 PM EST Thursday...For Friday, expect a cold moist
cyclonic flow early which will lead to upslope snow showers.
Overall NW flow and Froude forecasts support light orographic snow
showers. Highs only in the teens and 20s. Ridging begins to build
in later in the day which should force snow showers to gradually
diminish. Surface high pressure builds in late Saturday, but a
weak upper level impulse may bring some clouds and some additional
light snow showers or flurries during the day. Lows Saturday
morning in the single digits to teens. Highs on Saturday forecast
in the teens and 20s. High pressure is expected to bring partly
cloudy skies and cold for Saturday night with lows in the single
digits to teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 405 PM EST Thursday...Unsettled weather is expected
through much of the long term period with temperatures averaging
below normal.

At the start of the period, a shortwave and associated sfc wave will
be moving from the Ohio Valley towards the Northeast states for
Sunday into Monday.  Some models also suggest that a secondary area
of low pressure may form off the coast of New England as the storm
exits for Monday night into Tuesday morning.  Although there are
still variations in the models and ensembles members regarding exact
temps aloft and QPF amounts, the vast majority suggest temps both
aloft and in the boundary layer will remain below freezing, keeping
precip in the form of snow.  Amounts are still certain, but at least
a light to moderate snowfall look to occur across the entire CWA
between Sunday and Monday with a prolonged period of steady light
precip. Daytime temps look to be in the 20s to low 30s and lows will
be in the teens.

Behind this system, the remainder of week will be dominated by
chilly temperatures, with the potential for some additional
snowfall. The models don`t agree on the timing at all, so generally
have slight chc to chc pops for Tuesday through Thursday. At some
point, a frontal system looks to move through with some additional
snow showers and there`s also the potential for another more
organized area of steady snowfall if a wave can develop along this
boundary (as suggested by the latest 12z GFS).  Daytime temps will
continue to mainly be in the 20s with lows in the single digits and
teens.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 00Z Saturday...As an upper level trough moves into the
region, the combination of cyclonic flow, upslope and lake-
effect activity will allow for isolated snow showers over the
region for tonight. Right now KSLK and KRUT look to be the most
active overnight with periods of MVFR/IFR with passing showers.
All other locations could experience a period of MVFR ceilings
overnight as the upper trough moves through but should trend
back to  VFR by mid morning. Southwesterly winds at 05-15 knots
will shift to the Northwest at 10-20 knots by Friday morning.


Outlook 00Z Saturday through Monday...

VFR ceilings developing Friday night into Sunday. Next system
arrives on Sunday afternoon with another widespread light snow
event. This system will produce widespread ifr conditions
between 18z Sunday into 12z Monday.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MV



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