Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 210529

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1229 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

Quiet weather is expected through Sunday night with variably
cloudy skies and only an outside chance of a stray sprinkle or
flurry. A storm system will affect the area Monday into Tuesday
with a variety of mixed precipitation and rain, before colder
more seasonal temperatures return by the middle to later
portions of next week.


As of 635 PM EST Saturday...Only minimal updates this evening
based on cloud cover and associated temperature trends. Still
relatively mild across the region this evening, including 42F at
BTV at 2330Z. A broad west to southwesterly flow persists
between distant low pressure to our north and east and
subtropical high pressure draped across the southeastern
seaboard offshore to near Bermuda. For the overnight period,
we`re still watching a cold front dropping southward from
southern Ontario/Quebec province in association with the
aforementioned low. This is a rather moisture-starved boundary
and with models somewhat bearish on precipitation chances/QPF
I`ve only offered a pre- frontal 20-40 pop for a few snow
showers or sprinkles/flurries through midnight or so across the
north before values begin to wane. The actual front should sink
south into the area in the 100-600 am time frame with winds
trending light northerly to near calm by sunrise Sunday. Low
temperatures mainly in the 20s to locally near 30 south.

By Sunday into Sunday night, the boundary essentially trends
stationary to our immediate south with variable clouds and once
again, perhaps a stray flurry across the north over time. Model-
averaged 925 mb thermal profiles cool by some 3-5C supporting highs
around 30 along the international border and ranging through the 30s
elsewhere. With abundant clouds overnight lows to hold on the mild
side by late January standards and range mainly through the 20s.


As of 400 PM EST Saturday...Warm front will move into the
Northern New York and Vermont area from the southwest late in
the day on Monday and bring some rain or snow to parts of the
area...with a little light mixed precipitation across parts of
northern New York. Temperatures on Monday will reach the 30s,
with some upper 30s in the Saint Lawrence valley and mid 30s in
the Champlain Valley. Temperatures will be nearly steady or even
rising Monday night into Tuesday. By midnight mixed
precipitation should lift north of the area and we will then be
in a dry slot until the very early morning hours on Tuesday.
Rain is expected from 09z-21 Tuesday, with the heaviest totals
across Southern and Eastern Vermont. Most of the precipitation
will be out ahead of the cold front with drier colder air moving
in afterwards. Maximum temperatures on Tuesday should be well
into the 40s, then drop back into the 20s following cold frontal


As of 400 PM EST Saturday...Some snow showers may linger behind
departing cold front into the day on Wednesday, especially
across our Northern zones. We are then expecting dry and cold
weather from Wednesday night through Saturday with high pressure
over the region. Thursday looks to be the coldest day of the
extended period, then warming headed into the weekend. Another
system approaches for next weekend, tracking west of us so will
be another thing to watch as we get closer to next Sun.


Through 06Z Monday...VFR conditions are trending towards MVFR
as weak cold front and associated ribbon of enhanced moisture
moves into the North Country. In addition to lower cigs to mvfr
levels this boundary might bring a few scattered rain/snow
showers through 12Z. Ceilings will improve briefly at the
valley locations after 15Z back to VFR before dropping back to
MVFR ahead of the next system coming in Monday evening.

Winds will shift NW at 05-10 knots before going light and
variable after 12Z.


Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN, Chance FZRA, Chance PL.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely FZRA,
Likely RA, Chance PL.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite SHRA, Definite FZRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible.
Likely SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.




LONG TERM...Neiles
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