Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 300245
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE
WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
THAT WERE AROUND THE REGION EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED
PER LATEST RADAR LOOP. HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND 18Z
GFS MOS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING
PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL
BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN
BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP,
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU
7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS
OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT.
GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN
CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/BR
EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK...WITH VFR AREA-WIDE FOR
MOST OF TUESDAY.

SLOWLY EXITING LOW/MID CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BETWEEN 00Z AND
05Z. ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AT
FL250. THIS GENERAL CLEARING...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...RECENT RAIN...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG
WILL BE AT MPV/SLK...WITH A PERIOD ALSO LIKELY AT PBG. MSS ALSO
MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME MVFR BR. BTV/RUT NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS BY AROUND 12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
AREA-WIDE. AFTER 17-18Z...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR...SOME BRIEF WINDOWS OF
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT...TURNING TO THE
SOUTH FROM 5-10 TO KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



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