Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 251142
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
642 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation below for 12Z TAF update.

&&

.AVIATION...

Broken areas of MVFR cigs moving past ALI/CRP/VCT will lift and
clear within the next couple of hours, and VFR will persist
through the remainder of the period. Light southerly winds early
this morning will increase to a moderate gusty flow by the mid to
late morning. Winds will back to the southeast during the
afternoon, gradually diminishing in the evening and overnight. An
isolated shower may impact develop within the vicinity of VCT this
morning, though coverage is expected to be rather limited.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 426 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

The upper level ridge remains centered over north Texas and the
Southern Plains with a weak shear axis angled across the region.
GOES-16 Total Precipitable Water imager shows a plume of higher
moisture moving north into the region this morning. Isolated
streamer showers across the coastal waters and Coastal Bend will
be possible this morning. An isolated thunderstorm may develop
along the sea breeze this afternoon, though most locations will
remain dry. Slightly above normal PWAT values (above 2 inches)
will maintain a slight chance for thunderstorms across eastern
portions of the region tomorrow. Temperatures today will be a few
degrees less hot compared to yesterday with higher moisture
across the region. However, higher dewpoints will bring more
widespread heat index values of 105 to 109 degrees across the
region today. Isolated locations may briefly touch 110 degree heat
index values for less than two hours this afternoon. Tomorrow
will bring even higher heat index values, and a heat advisory may
be needed for portions of the region.



LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...

GFS/ECMWF deterministic predict the upper ridge to build over the
south central CONUS then orient NW-SE from TX to the Rockies while
an upper trough develops over the ERN CONUS, during the period.
Isolated convection expected over the ERN CWA/MSA Wednesday
Night/Thursday. Drying associated with the building upper ridge
expected over the CWA/MSA. The GFS deterministic predicts PWAT
values to fall below normal by Friday and thus preclude significant
precipitation. The foregoing upper pattern transition will
contribute to a weak frontal boundary that is expected to enter TX
later in the period. The GFS ensemble mean depict the boundary to
enter central TX Saturday then stall. The proximity of the
boundary and associated moisture convergence expected to increase
the chance for convection over the CWA/MSA Sunday/Monday. Maximum
Heat Index values generally 105-109 during the period. Brief Heat
Advisory conditions may occur at some locations Thursday through
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  78  96  78  95  /  20  10  20  10  20
Victoria          96  77  97  77  97  /  20  10  20  10  20
Laredo           102  79 103  78 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
Alice             99  77 100  76 100  /  20  10  20  10  20
Rockport          95  82  95  81  90  /  20  10  20  10  20
Cotulla          101  77 103  76 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
Kingsville        97  78  98  77  98  /  20  10  20  10  20
Navy Corpus       94  83  94  82  89  /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

LB/84...AVIATION



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