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000
FXUS64 KCRP 200048
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
748 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...ISOLD -SHRA`S THAT HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DIMINISHED. CIN VALUES ARE ON
THE INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE AND WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP TONIGHT.
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF ISOLD -SHRA`S FROM THIS
EVENING`S FCST. OTHERWISE...REST OF FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO
MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DATA (INCLUDING
925MB WINDS)...AM EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINALS. MAY
HAVE SOME VERY BRIEF MVFR BR AT KALI BUT WILL NOT PUT IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME MORE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BY 03Z (EXCEPT AT KLRD WHICH WILL BE
MORE LIKE 08Z). WILL START WITH SOUTH WINDS AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY
THEN SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS SEA-BREEZE PASSES THROUGH
ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS OBSERVED IN OBSERVATIONS TODAY (WITH
SIMILAR GUSTS).

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...AFTERNOON HEATING
AND SEA BREEZE HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED A 10 POP WITH MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER TEXAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THIS WILL BRING VERY WARM/HOT TEMPS TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 100S OUT WEST TO MID 90S IN THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION...
THE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN
105 AND 109 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. AS WITH TODAY...A FEW SEA BREEZE
INDUCED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTIONABLE
POP ATTM.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
HOLDING STRONG OVER TEXAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND SLIGHTLY LIFT TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL AID IN HAVING MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE BACK INTO THE REGION
DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN WILL
STILL HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...BUT NOT A STRONGLY CENTERED
OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLIGHT COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE PWATS ARE NOT ABOVE
NORMAL BY ANY MEANS...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING...AND THEN BETTER
AGAIN ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DAILY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. MAINLY KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES AS THEY WERE ACROSS
THE MARINE AND COASTAL BEND ZONES. A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP DAILY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...AND DROP TO A MORE
LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH RECENT TRENDS AS WELL...AND DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND DAILY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  97  78  97  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76  96  76  96  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            77 102  78 102  78  /  10  10   0  10  10
ALICE             75  98  76  97  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  89  80  91  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           76  99  75  99  75  /  10  10   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77  98  77  98  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  90  79  90  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM