Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 022343
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
643 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES ANTICIPATED NEAR ISOLD/SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRG THE MID
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN
COUNTIES OF WEBB...DUVAL...JIM WELLS...AND KLEBERG. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO OCCUR. GENERALLY LGT
ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO GENERALLY MODERATE DRG THE
AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS THE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. AS THE TRACK OF T.S.
DOLLY CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WELL SOUTH OF THE
BORDER THIS EVENING...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BIT
MORE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF DOLLY STRETCHING INTO THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS BEING SAID...HAVE LOWERED
POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA...WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS
AS THE WEAKENED SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE LOWERED
CHANCES...HAVE INCREASED TEMPS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING
CHANCES OF PRECIP HAS LOWERED SOME WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS
MOISTURE FIELD IS APPEARING TO BE A LITTLE MORE LIMITED THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. GUIDANCE SUITES CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH HANDLING
OF REMNANTS OF TROP STORM DOLLY WITH GFS TAKING REMNANT VORTICITY
WESTWARD INTO MX WHILE ECMWF/CMC INCREASE DPVA ACROSS NORTHERN
COAHUILA MX AND S TX. THUS...GFS IS DRIER THAN ECMWF/CMC. GIVEN
CURRENT TRACK OF DOLLY...GFS HANDLING OF REMNANTS MAY BE PANNING
OUT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
PRESENT FOR AT LEAST DAILY CHANCES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ENOUGH DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND STRENGTHENING OF MID
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD AID IN REDUCTION OF POPS. ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A WEAK FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
HAVE WARMED MAX TEMPS FOR MOST DAYTIME PERIODS GIVEN SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS AND STRENGTHENING OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND THEN FALL TO SEASONABLY LEVELS AS ATMOSPHERE
DRIES.

MARINE...PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASED SWELLS
FROM T.S. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM PORT ARANSAS SOUTH
TO PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
OVERNIGHT DURING HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION...INCREASED SEAS AND A
TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  92  78  92  77  /  30  40  30  40  20
VICTORIA          77  95  77  96  76  /  20  30  20  30  10
LAREDO            80  95  78  98  79  /  20  50  40  40  30
ALICE             76  93  77  96  75  /  20  40  30  40  20
ROCKPORT          81  92  80  90  80  /  30  40  30  40  20
COTULLA           77  95  76  97  76  /  20  40  30  40  20
KINGSVILLE        79  92  78  96  77  /  30  50  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  89  80  91  80  /  30  40  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION



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