Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 311740
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1140 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE BRIEFLY VFR CONDITIONS. RAIN IS MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...CURRENTLY FROM SAT...TO COT...TO LRD. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTICED IN THE EAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN
AREA. FOR MOST AREAS BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z TONIGHT. VCT COULD HOLD RAIN LONGER. OTHER AREAS...HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WILL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE STARTING TO IMPROVE AT VERY END
OF THIS TAF PERIOD. INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS FOR LRD BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT HAVE OTHERS STILL IN MVFR/IFR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS ARE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS TO RISE TO MVFR LVLS THROUGH
THE MID MORNING. LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWERING LATE OVERNIGHT BACK DOWN TO IFR
CRITERIA AFTER 06Z. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE AT AND AROUND
THE LRD TERMINAL THROUGH THE DAY...AND INCREASING OVER THE REST OF
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z RAIN CHANCES DECREASE...AND
DO NOT HAVE MENTION OF SHRA AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY (THROUGH HIGHER CHANCES REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST) WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
DISTURBANCES LIFTING AROUND AND ACROSS THE REGION. AS TROUGH
TRACKS EASTWARD ANTICIPATED DRYING TO THEN OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LESS HIGH IN
MUCH DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK SOME LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...KEEPING MAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP A GOOD BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES ON SUNDAY AS MORE DRYING OCCURS. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
SLOWING UPPER TROUGH EVEN MORE THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH OFTEN HAPPENS
WITH A CLOSED-OFF SYSTEM LIKE THIS FOR TIME OF YEAR. CANADIAN IS THE
FASTEST...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST (ALL WITHIN 12-18 HOURS OF EACH
OTHER). WILL DELAY PASSAGE OF TROUGH ABOUT ANOTHER 12 HOURS...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SYSTEM IS MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF SOLUTION
(IF NOT A BIT SLOWER) BY THE 00Z SUNDAY RUN. ALSO...MODELS ARE GOING
FARTHER SOUTH (IN PART EXPLAINING THE SLOWER SYSTEM) AS PREVIOUS
RUNS. THUS...BEST SHOT OF RAIN NOW APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
NOT TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS AND GULFMEX. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST ON WEDNESDAY (UNLESS UPPER SYSTEM IS SLOWER AND THUS DRYING
WILL BE SLOWER). SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE ONCE SYSTEM PASSES EAST (IF IT
DOES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY COMING DOWN
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. NICE BUT COOL ON FRIDAY. COOL AND DAMP ON
TUESDAY BUT WARMER ON WEDNESDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...UNLESS
SYSTEM IS SLOWER WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN. TURNING
COOLER ON THURSDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ISC
COLLABORATION.

BEFORE TUESDAY...QUICK SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG
FRONT...MAINLY TOWARD THE EASTERN AREAS/GULFMEX AND NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS IN THE GULF WATERS IN EXCESS OF GALE
FORCE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME (AFTER
DISCUSSION WITH KBRO AND KHGX). MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH SOUTH ON MONDAY
TO PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO RAIN
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TUESDAY MORNING AS
IMPACTS FROM UPPER SYSTEM STILL WEST AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS
DELAYED. STAYING CLOSER TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  61  75  46  56  /  20  50  20  40  10
VICTORIA          69  59  72  40  54  /  30  50  40  30  10
LAREDO            74  59  76  48  54  /  50  50  10  30  10
ALICE             73  60  77  45  56  /  20  60  20  30  10
ROCKPORT          69  62  70  43  54  /  20  40  30  40  10
COTULLA           68  57  72  44  56  /  50  50  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  61  78  46  56  /  20  50  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  62  70  49  55  /  20  40  20  40  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION






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