Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 232048
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
248 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night)...

Main issue is the fog potential tonight; otherwise this is
basically a temperature forecast with respect to the public
forecast. Winds will stay up for a time over the eastern areas,
but will fall toward morning as the trough approaches the area. Do
have areas of fog over the northern/northeastern areas, with fog
more patchy south. Fog should lift rapidly then the trough moves
east and winds pick up over the Brush Country and Rio Grande
Plains (less so farther east). Another warm day due to the NNW
winds but not as warm as today as 850 mb temperatures are cooler.
Am hoping guidance is not too warm, but will go with 80s pretty
much area-wide again as indicated by the afternoon 2 meter
temperatures. Winds increase after midnight Friday as the surface
high begins to move into South Texas.

&&

.MARINE (Tonight through Friday night)...

Winds will be near SCA for the southern bays/near southern coast
this evening, but overall SCEC conditions will prevail. Winds
diminish on Friday as the trough moves offshore, then increase
Friday night as the pressure gradient increases due to the surging
high pressure.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER (Friday)...

Elevated fire weather conditions will end by this evening as in
some areas (Jim Wells County) but will maintain it for now.
Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely on Friday over the
Rio Grande Plains and Western Brush Country, but that should be
for only a couple of hours.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...

The period will begin cooler and dry as high pressure builds in
behind the cold front.  Could see SCA conditions offshore as
gradient tightens with SCEC conditions likely over the rest of the
waters.  MAV temps look fine.  Moisture increases Saturday Night
into Sunday with return flow.  Continued with 20 PoPs Sunday into
Sunday Night to account for isolated showers/areas of light rain
that should dvlp.  HPC temps looked best.

Good warmup early next week as southerly flow strengthens.  MEX
temperatures look too cool Mon/Tue and leaned closer to the warmer
HPC numbers.  Next cold front looks to come through on Wednesday.
This front also looks mainly dry but may have a better pressure
gradient resulting in more widespread SCA conditions behind it.  MEX
temps continue to look too cool and stayed closer to WPC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    63  88  54  75  59  /   0   0   0   0   0
Victoria          62  85  46  72  50  /   0   0   0   0   0
Laredo            60  87  53  79  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             58  88  49  78  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
Rockport          65  83  55  72  60  /   0   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           57  87  47  76  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        59  90  50  77  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       66  83  59  73  61  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
TJ/70...LONG TERM


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