Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
FXUS64 KCRP 280319 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1019 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...Updated forecast for latest radar trends and other
parameters. Removed rain for northern areas but increased it for
gulf and NE/Coast. Winds will diminish after briefly becoming
northerly. Clouds will return. No time to look at new model data
anyway so left remainder of the forecast as-is. Did make other
adjustements...with boundary coming down the rip current risk
should end shortly after midnight (extended it til midnight).
Finally, extended the SCA for the bays til 1 AM (boundary comes
through), but increased it for the offshore another couple of
hours mainly due to the sea heights. That is it for now.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 701 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/
DISCUSSION...Updated forecast to mention severe in NE counties.
Activity may last about another hour or two before weakening
slowly. May need updates later this evening should convection
drift farther south but looking at LAPS data have feeling the 1-2
hour time window is appropriate for now. Meso-models still having
their issues, although HRRR may be catching on some (but has
trouble shutting it off too). With short- window and small area,
have put in severe in forecast but for now no watch issued
(coordinated with SPC).
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 630 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/
DISCUSSION...See 00Z Aviation Discussion.
AVIATION...Thunder only in KVCT for about 2-3 hours, then
quieting down. With upper trough moving east of area and drier air
coming in (as well as very warm temperatures) am expecting the
cigs to take more time to develop at KALI overnight with no cigs
expected at KLRD. However, at KALI, will probably have some MVFR fog,
with a maybe IFR fog for a short time. At KVCT will forecast MVFR
ceilings by 04Z, with MFVR ceilings at KCRP after 06Z (may be a
bit earlier). Winds will diminish more with much weaker and SE
winds overnight. As a result, that is why there is some MVFR/TEMPO
IFR fog in the terminals for KALI and KVCT. VFR condtions should
return to eastern terminals AOB 18Z, with gusty SE/SSE winds
developing in the afternoon all but KLRD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 400 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday night)...Prospects of
convection in the near term is the main forecast issue this
afternoon. Boundaries galore are noted on radar. The surface
trough/dryline and sea breeze are draped across the central part
of the area. Boundary collision between these two features may be
sufficient to trigger showers and storms. In addition, an outflow
boundary moving south and approaching the northern fringes of the
CWA. Convection currently just northeast of the area is attempting
to build to the SSW. This activity could impact the northeast
parts of the area...especially Goliad/Victoria/Calhoun counties...
during the afternoon and early evening hours. Given the very
strong instability (MLCAPES 3500 to 4500) south of boundary, a
severe storm threat could materialize across the northeast zones.
Damaging winds and large hail would be the primary threat. A
locally heavy rain threat could also develop as storms train west
to east along boundary. Storms should weaken and move east of the
area later on this evening.
Upper level ridge will build northward on Saturday. However,
moisture will not completely scour it across South Texas. Daytime
heating may be sufficient enough to generate isolated showers and
thunderstorms, and will carry mainly 20 and 30 pops tomorrow, with
a sliver of 40s in the extreme NW part of Webb County. Another
very warm day is expected on Saturday with highs around 100
degrees near Laredo to around 90 in Victoria.
Moisture axis will shift westward on Saturday night as slightly
drier air moves in from the Gulf of Mexico. There will only be a
slight chance of showers and storms over the Rio Grande Plains.
The high risk of rip currents will continue through this evening
as long period swells continue. The rip current risk may need to
be extended into Saturday is long period swells are still
occurringlater this evening.
MARINE...Strong onshore flow with SCA conditions will occur over
the local bays until 10pm this evening and the Gulf Waters until
4am Saturday morning. Winds will slightly weaken on Saturday but
remain at moderate levels.
LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...Mid/upper lvl ridging will
continue to build over the region Sunday while an upper low develops
over southern California and sends weak impulses across the region.
Residual moisture across the region will allow for isolated to some
scattered showers and thunderstorms early in the week. During the
mid to late week PoPs increase as upper lvl trough/low moves east
closer to the region and surface boundary moves south during the end
of the week. Warm and humid conditions will continue over the
holiday weekend with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Temperatures
drop slightly during the mid week, and further with front moving
south late in the week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 78 90 79 88 77 / 30 20 10 20 10
Victoria 70 90 76 87 74 / 20 30 10 20 10
Laredo 76 100 78 93 76 / 10 30 20 20 20
Alice 77 94 77 90 75 / 20 30 10 20 20
Rockport 78 85 79 85 78 / 50 20 10 20 10
Cotulla 75 96 76 92 74 / 10 30 20 20 20
Kingsville 78 92 78 90 76 / 20 20 10 20 10
Navy Corpus 79 86 79 85 79 / 30 20 10 20 10
TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight For the
following zones: Aransas...Calhoun...Kleberg...Nueces.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Saturday For the following
zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday For the following
zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port OConnor.