Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 270552 AAC
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1252 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for 06z aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated convection is still ongoing at this time across parts of
South Texas, and have included VCSH remarks at LRD and VCT. In
addition, periodic MVFR ceilings will be possible at ALI/CRP/VCT
but should mix out mid/late morning. Chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday and have
either VCSH/VCTS remarks at all sites except Laredo, where
confidence is a bit lower. Winds through the period will primarily
be out of the sse and se, with some gusts around 20 knots in the
afternoon.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 957 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An area of convection continues mainly north of San Patricio
County fueled by the cold pool behind outflow boundary from when
storms were in central portions of the forecast area. Keep
thinking the outflow is starting to move out ahead and storms will
dissipate, but sufficient instability in this region has helped to
maintain it. Showers have tried to develop farther south along the
outflow but have not had much luck. Looks like Corpus Christi will
still miss out on any substantial rain tonight. Stratiform rain
region across the CWA should gradually weaken overnight.

Meso models continue to indicate another round of convection
tomorrow...most likely beginning in the northern coastal bend
around sunrise.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 650 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Convection largely winding down across the area expect for one
N-S oriented region along the McMullen/Live Oak and Duval/Jim
Wells county lines. Not much movement with this line...but it is
building a bit back to the east. Radar has not indicated much wind
with this activity...and with -20C heights of 28kft not
anticipating much in the way of hail either. Will continue to
monitor for possible small hail...but expect anything that may
occur to remain under severe limits. This convection should begin
to weaken over the next couple of hours as the atmosphere
stabilizes.

AVIATION...Tricky forecast with showers/thunderstorms still
lingering. Have kept a VCTS for ALI and LRD for a few more
hours...then expect a mainly dry overnight period before
convection redevelops tomorrow. Will leave out of LRD forecast
tomorrow for now as some drier air is expected in that region.
MVFR cigs will be possible at times with showers/storms.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 416 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

SHORT TERM (This Afternoon through Wednesday)...

Coverage of thunderstorms has been increasing across the Rio
Grande Plains and Brush Country this afternoon, while activity
over the Victoria Crossroads/Northern Coastal Bend/Gulf waters
has been diminishing. Anticipate convection to wane with the loss
of daytime heating this evening/overnight, though there will be
some lingering convection. Mid level inverted trough will remain
over the region tonight and Wednesday, slowly drifting westward. Though
higher moisture will stay across the far eastern zones and
northern Brush Country Wednesday. Expect another round of showers
and storms to redevelop tomorrow morning and push further inland,
similar to today, if not with as high of coverage. Low to mid
level temperatures recover a good bit, and temperatures should be
a good bit warmer than today. With a bit less cloud cover and
rain in the area highs will hit around 101 degrees out west and in
the low to mid 90s to the east.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Tuesday)...

Reasonable moisture (pwats AOA 2 inches/mean RH values greater than
60%) will remain over most of South Texas Wednesday night and part
of Thursday, then gradually diminish over the western portions of
the forecast area as the upper ridge tries to build back in.
However, for the most part, there will continue to be a weakness in
the upper level pattern through the early part of next week which
will provide for at least a slight chance for precipitation over the
northeastern sections of the forecast area. Thus, will continue with
a chance for showers/storms on Thursday over the eastern half of the
region (slight chance farther west), then begin to taper off rain
chances through the weekend but keeping at least a mention of rain
over the Victoria area where the ridge will be weakest and the
moisture will be a bit better (convection over the gulf waters will
also have a better opportunity to move into those areas). By
Tuesday, the models are hinting at a bit of an inverted upper trough
moving toward the western Gulf of Mexico (GFS takes it to SE Texas
while ECMWF takes it south of Brownsville). This would be our area
on an unfavorable side of the system, so have only restricted rain
chances over the NE Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads regions.
Looks like temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal
through the period, with minimum temperatures more likely to be a
tad above normal as boundary layer temperatures AOA 20 Celsius are
expected for most if not all of the period. Generally went with a
blend of a bias-corrected MOS and a bias-corrected EKDMOS (albeit
from the 26/00Z run) which have been doing OK as of late (but did
have to adjust the coastal locations both for highs and lows in some
cases).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  79  95  78  94  /  30  30  30  20  20
Victoria          91  77  96  76  97  /  40  30  30  20  30
Laredo           101  79 102  78 103  /  20  20  20  10  10
Alice             97  76 100  75 100  /  20  20  30  10  20
Rockport          88  83  92  82  92  /  30  30  30  20  20
Cotulla           98  77 102  76 102  /  30  20  20  10  10
Kingsville        96  77  97  76  98  /  20  20  30  10  20
Navy Corpus       89  82  92  81  91  /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION



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