Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 040534
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1234 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DRG THE TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY LGT NORTH SFC WIND OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN
BEFORE BECOMING LGT/VARIABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...TIDE LEVELS AT BOB HALL PIER ARE BEGINNING TO TREND
UPWARD TOWARD HIGH TIDE. LEVELS MAY SKIRT 2FT ABV MSL AT THE PEAK
OF HIGH TIDE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE AT PORT ARANSAS IS AT 225 AM CDT
AND AT BOB HALL PIER APPROX 2 AM CDT. WILL MAINTAIN THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY DUE TO EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

WEATHER WISE...A LONG WAVE TROF MOVG S ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX...WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT S THROUGH TONIGHT. DUE TO A DRY
ENVIRONMENT...PRECIP IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO REINFORCE THE SFC HIGH ACROSS S TX AND
MAINTAIN THE DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS. OVERALL...FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE N TO NE...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOONS
WHEN THE SEA BREEZE WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT WINDS AT CRP AND ALI TO A
MORE E DIRECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...TRANQUIL WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LOW...WITH PWAT VALUES FALLING BELOW A HALF INCH. A SHORTWAVE OFF
AN UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL PASS THE REGION OVERNIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NO RAIN FORECAST.
UPPER LVL RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO WELL BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. TOMORROW WILL BRING SUNNY
SKIES AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S
ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR 90 DEGREES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL THEN BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE EXTENDED PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST. BY THE WEEKEND...BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH
UPPER TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS AND UPPER TROUGH
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. END RESULT WILL BE
A PERIOD OF WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S OUT WEST WITH LOW/MID 80S OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA. AT THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
WINDS OVER THE MARINE ZONES WILL INCREASE TO SCEC...AND PERHAPS LOW
END SCA LEVELS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH EMERGES INTO THE
PLAINS. SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL MIX INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
TO THE NORTH...AND INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WILL
LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS WHERE CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    61  89  65  87  69  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          57  86  60  85  64  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            63  94  66  93  69  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             59  91  61  89  66  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          64  87  69  85  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           59  93  63  92  66  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        60  90  62  89  67  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       66  86  71  85  72  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION



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