Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 220038

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
638 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018


Note Aviation Discussion below corresponding to the 00z TAFs.



A transition to MVFR/IFR conditions expected tonight as a cold
front approaches from the NW. Expect the front to move across
South Texas approximately during the 09-15z Monday period. This
front may trigger isolated showers over portions of the Victoria
Crossroads generally 03-09z Monday. A rapid transition to VFR
conditions expected after frontal passage. Weak/moderate S flow
over the Coastal Bend in advance of the front. Expect breezy NW/N
flow to develop after frontal passage Monday. VFR/decreasing wind
expected near the end of the TAF period.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...

Pacific front continues to move towards the region late tonight with
strong southerly flow in place drawing in a lot of low-level
moisture. Still have a staunch low-level inversion in place with
southwesterly winds around 850mb/5-6kft layer bringing in dry air
from Mexico. This is why most, if not all, the showery activity has
been across our far northeastern zones and of little consequence.

As we head into the overnight hours the surface winds will begin to
decrease but then fog becomes an issue. Not thinking it`ll be as
dense as the previous mornings could produce some localized pockets
of denser fog across the Coastal Plains and Brush Country. Could
continue to be more of an issue over the bays and nearshore Gulf
waters but the winds don`t look as conducive tonight with them being
more southerly. Maybe farther north could see areas of denser marine
fog but at this time not confident to issue any headlines.

Front slides through, not as strong as previous Pacific fronts,
during the early morning hours with most of the moisture convergence
and less capping across our extreme eastern zones and Gulf waters.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible but thinking it`ll be confined
to the Gulf. Temperatures behind the front, given the weakness of
the front, should still end up being slightly above average.

Clear skies behind the front and some better mixing will allow for
some gusts upward of 25-30 MPH. With dry air behind the front and
the winds we could have issues with elevated fire danger conditions
across the much of the region. Fresh cleaner airmass in place
tomorrow night should allow temperatures to drop back into the upper-
30s to mid-40s or just about average.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...

Not too much change in the long term period. The only real
difference will be with the moisture associated with a coastal
trough developing mid-week.  Long term period starts with strong
upper low pulling off to the northeast, but now looks like trough
could stretch out across the central US, cutting off a low over
northern Mexico. This will suppress ridging a bit farther south.
Coastal trough also looks to remain farther south as surface high
pressure builds across Texas. Moisture now looks to remain mostly
south of the area for Wednesday and Thursday. Have cut pops back to
just southern marine areas for these two days and kept land areas
dry. By Friday, onshore flow should redevelop allowing the flow of
moisture to return. Have slight chance pops Thursday night
increasing to chance pops east for Friday and Saturday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Frontal passage currently expected Saturday
afternoon to evening time frame, and should be a bit stronger with a
moderate to strong offshore flow behind it.

High temperatures remain mainly in the 60s for Tue-Thur, but warm
into the lower to mid 70s by Friday/Saturday. Cooler low
temperatures Tue/Wed nights in the 40s with lows in the 50s Thu/Fri


Corpus Christi    54  71  45  66  45  /  10   0   0  10  10
Victoria          52  70  39  66  40  /  20   0   0  10  10
Laredo            49  70  41  68  43  /   0   0   0   0  10
Alice             52  72  41  68  43  /  10   0   0  10  10
Rockport          56  69  45  64  47  /  10   0   0  10  10
Cotulla           47  70  38  68  39  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        54  73  42  68  45  /  10   0   0  10  10
Navy Corpus       57  70  48  64  50  /  10   0   0  10  10





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