Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 261758 AAC
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1258 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

No convection (SHRA/TSRA) in the terminals. Should see VFR
conditions at the terminals by 21Z, with MVFR conditions
returning over the eastern terminals AOA 27/03Z. Winds have been
slowly coming up and are not as high as MOS has been advertising,
which is often the case in the overnight hours. There is a good
low level jet overnight but winds should stay up enough (around 10
knots or less) to keep wind shear out of the terminals.
Conditions improve to VFR between 14Z and 18Z. Thus, could have
another line in the forecast for transformation from MVFR to VFR
between 15Z and 18Z, but decided for brevity to go with VFR all
but KCRP AOA 15Z as sustained southerly flow may keep clouds in
til about 16Z or 17Z. Gusty southerly winds by 15Z eastern
terminals on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 1113 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Just made a few minor changes, including lowering temperatures
just a bit over the western areas (where temperatures are running
3-5 degrees too warm and may still be too warm), but increased
high temperatures a degree or so Rockport and Port Lavaca areas.
Winds are not as strong (yet) in part due to the clouds. Due to
the slightly cooler temperatures, some areas may not see the 110F
for a few hours but am going to keep the advisory for now as grids
still show 110F or more western areas and near 110F eastern
portions of the advisory. Updated products are out.

MARINE...

Winds and seas were going down so allowed the advisory to expire.
Small craft should exercise caution. Will have to check to see if
winds will be close to SCA tonight and Saturday as good low level
jet returns overnight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 636 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Updated for 12z aviation.

AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings are present at all the terminals this morning, but
should gradually improve as the morning progresses. South to
southeast winds will be gusty again today, most notable at the
ALI/CRP/VCT taf sites. Low clouds will return this evening around
02z/03z at ALI/VCT, closer to 06z/07z at CRP, and not until around
09z at LRD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 428 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...

Main weather issue during today and tomorrow will be the heat and
humidity.

Temperatures today should easily top 100 degrees over the Rio
Grande and western Brush Country. Elsewhere, highs will be in the
mid/upper 90s across central sections and upper 80s/lower 90s over
the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. A persistent
onshore flow continues across South Texas today, ushering deeper
moisture into the area. Dewpoints today should be able to climb
into the lower 70s over the Rio Grande and western Brush Country
and middle 70s elsewhere. The combination of the heat and humidity
will produce heat index values at or slightly above 110 degrees
this afternoon for several hours. A heat advisory is in effect
from 18z to 00z along and west of a line from Kingsville to Three
Rivers.

A warm and muggy night is expected across the area tonight under
partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows will only fall into the upper
70s.

Hot conditions again will be in store on Saturday. Highs may
actually be a degree or two warmer than today. However, dewpoints
mix out a little bit more tomorrow, most notably over western
parts of the area. Heat index values may approach 110 degrees
tomorrow, but confidence is not high advisory criteria will be
met.

MARINE...

Strong onshore flow continues this morning across all of the
Middle Texas Coastal Waters. South to southeast winds between 20
and 25 knots with occasional higher gusts will be common. A small
craft advisory remains in effect until 10am.

LONG TERM (Saturday night through Thursday)...

The upper level pattern will be transitioning from a zonal flow
aloft to a more active pattern as an upper level longwave trough/low
moves into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region over the
holiday weekend. A weak frontal boundary will move into Texas,
with ample moisture pooling across the region early next week.
Models still indicate the front will struggle to make it all the
way through South Texas, with it stalling out to the north or just
across the region early next week. This will provide a focus for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to be possible,
mainly Sunday night and Monday. Fairly weak flow across the region
indicates there may be periods of moderate to heavy rainfall with
slow storm movement. Going into the mid-week, the main focus with
the frontal boundary dissipates. However, a series of shortwaves
passing in the southwest flow aloft, and high moisture remaining
across the region will allow for more scattered convection daily
through the mid to late week.

Temperatures beginning the period will remain seasonably hot, though
not coming in as warm as during the short term.  Increasing cloud
cover and rain across the region will bring temperatures back down
to more seasonable values Monday through the mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  79  95  79  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
Victoria          92  78  94  78  92  /  10  10  10  10  20
Laredo           102  79 104  78  99  /  10  10  10  10  20
Alice             97  78  98  78  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
Rockport          90  80  90  80  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
Cotulla          101  78 102  78  98  /  10  10  10  10  20
Kingsville        97  79  97  79  95  /  10  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       89  80  89  81  90  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening For the following
     zones: Duval...Jim Wells...Kleberg...La Salle...Live Oak...
     McMullen...Nueces...Webb.

GM...None.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



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