Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 282120
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
320 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY....THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT AIDED IN BRINGING S TX
RAIN OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
CWA WITH MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADING EASTWARD BEHIND IT. LLVL CLOUD
COVER HAS BEEN RATHER STUBBORN IN MIXING OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN NOTED ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND I STILL EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROG TO
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY TONIGHT RESULTING IN NEARLY
CALM SFC WINDS. COMBINATION OF LIGHT WIND AND PWATS FALLING TO
LESS THAN .40 INCHES WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT. WHAT LITTLE WARMING OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
QUICKLY FADE AFTER SUNSET WITH TEMPS QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE 30S
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE3 30S ACROSS ALL BUT WEBB COUNTY WHERE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
LATE IN THE NIGHT MAY LIMIT MAXIMUM COOLING POTENTIAL. ISOLATED
LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK...BUT ANY FREEZE
TONIGHT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND ONLY A LIGHT/BRIEF FREEZE. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO SLIDE EAST ON MONDAY BUT 12Z GUIDANCE
INDICATES LESS MOVEMENT THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THUS...FEEL THAT
COOLER CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST LONGER ACROSS EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR MONDAY /DESPITE SUNNY SKIES/ AND I HAVE TRENDED TEMPS
COOLER WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROG
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN LLVL
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
LIGHT DRIZZLE.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING BACKED BY A
LARGE 1050MB SFC RIDGE SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CAA WILL
PERSIST OVER LAND AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
WEAKENING...WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTNG OVER THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH WED NGT. SCA`S WILL BE LIKELY. WEAK MOIST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUE AFTN
BECOMING MODERATE TUE NGT-WED RESULTING IN CHC LIGHT RAIN.
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THUR AS POTENT POS TILT UPR TROUGH
CYCLES NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE FRI-FRI NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA. GFS PROGS CAPES 500-1000 J/KG DURING
THAT TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    33  58  46  61  46  /   0   0  10  20  30
VICTORIA          33  58  41  59  41  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            40  64  47  59  44  /   0   0  10  20  40
ALICE             34  60  45  60  45  /   0   0  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          37  56  46  60  46  /   0   0  10  10  20
COTULLA           34  63  42  58  42  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        33  60  45  61  47  /   0   0  10  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       38  57  49  61  49  /   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM



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