Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 061807
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
107 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY WITH
LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS COMBINATION WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES TO SPREAD. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH TODAY/THIS EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH DAKOTA
TO NORTHERN WYOMING. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL QUITE MILD IN SPOTS
THIS MORNING WITH 08Z VALUES OF 66F AT KXVG/KPWC AND 70F AT KGPZ. WE
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW OCCURRING AND A LARGE AREA OF 850MB TEMPERATURES OF
18C TO 20C. WE BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT AND HAVE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
MOST AREAS. LAKESIDE AREAS IN THE TWIN PORTS AREA WILL START OFF
COOLER...BUT THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST THERE AS WELL. WITH THE LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO...IT MAKES SENSE WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHWEST. THE AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BE QUITE DRY TODAY...AND
THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS. DESPITE THE DRY
AIRMASS...WE DO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATION.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL END AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WE EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT
FROM AROUND 40F ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE MID FORTIES
OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE WEEKEND WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE MORE
CLOUDY THAN SUNDAY DUE TO THE SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP DUE TO THE LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE COOL NW
FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
SATURDAY...AND A LOBE OF CHANNELED VORTICITY MIGHT HELP TO DEVELOP
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. HIGHS WILL PRIMARILY BE
IN THE 60S.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY...AND IT WILL LIFT AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PLAINS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE
CHANCES ARE LOW THOUGH SINCE THE GFS HAS SHOWERS MUCH FARTHER NORTH
THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A NEARLY STACKED LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE NW US INTO NORTH DAKOTA OR NW MINNESOTA...BRINGING COOLER AND
CLOUDIER WEATHER...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS...TO THE NORTHLAND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. MAIN CONCERN IN THE
NEXT 6 HOURS IS THE GUSTY WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS...ALONG WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KINL. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARDS THROUGH THE FORECAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHICH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARDS. STILL UNSURE AT THIS POINT IN TIME IF STORMS WILL
MOVE OVER AN INDIVIDUAL TAF SITE AS STORMS HAVE YET TO
DEVELOP...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

OVERNIGHT EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS TO REMAIN...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
LLWS AT KDLH/KHIB FOR A FEW HOURS. THE HRRR/RAP SHOWED A
POSSIBILITY OF LLWS AT KBRD AND KHYR...BUT HELD OFF AS THREAT
APPEARED TO BE BORDERLINE. WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS RETURN TO ALL
SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  84  44  64  39 /  30  30  10   0
INL  83  40  64  33 /  10  10  10   0
BRD  87  46  68  40 /  20  20   0   0
HYR  85  46  67  35 /  20  40   0   0
ASX  83  45  64  36 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001-002-
     006>008.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018-
     019-025-026-033>038.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...WL


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