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000
FXUS63 KDLH 212003
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
303 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM.../NOW - WEDNESDAY/

THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN
SUBSIDING WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...SO
LEANED ON A BLEND.

AT 300PM/2000Z...THERE WAS A LARGE AND NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR EXTREME SW MINNESOTA. CLOUDY SKIES COVERED
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WERE CLEAR
SKIES FARTHER NORTH IN MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED FROM
THE SURFACE LOW IN EXTREME SW MINNESOTA THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND INTO THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THE MAJORITY OF THE NORTHLAND HAD
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S DUE TO THE NORTHEAST
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S IN THE EXTREME SE FORECAST
AREA. MULTIPLE POTENT SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THE OVERALL FLOW
AROUND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WAS
CENTERED NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AND WAS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. WHILE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA WAS DRY...THERE WERE SHOWERS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE
WILL PROVIDE RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. THE BORDERLAND REGION NEAR INTERNATIONAL
FALLS THOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME VERY LATE NIGHT CLEARING AND DRYING
OUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST.
THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE A
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE
LATE DAY CLEARING...BUT WILL BE COOLER IN THE 50S ACROSS NW
WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DUR TO THE CLOUDY SKIES AND
NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY/

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER HUDSON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO QUICKLY SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND INTO THE NORTHLAND. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW FROM
THE HIGH WILL WILL RESULT IN CAA AND H85 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY THURS MORNING. THE COOL AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING AND FALLING DEW
POINTS/RH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOCATIONS IN THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES
AROUND 20 PERCENT THURS.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
CENTERS OVER THE ERN ZONES AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT DEW
POINTS FALL INTO THE 20S OVER THE ERN ZONES...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES POSITIONED IN BETWEEN
MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND A TRANSITION
TO WAA OVER WESTERN MN. HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSTORMS
MAINLY FOR SW HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING RA
CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

WIDESPREAD -DZ/BR AND LOW END MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH CEILINGS AROUND
1000 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AROUND 30 KT AT KDLH WITH WEAKER GUSTS
ELSEWHERE. CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO GENERALLY IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF LIFR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE KINL
VCNY...AS DRIER AIR FINALLY BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE BORDERLAND
OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE FAR NORTH LATE TONIGHT. THE
CLEARING LINE WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE KBRD TO KHYR AREAS LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  56  39  60 /  60  60  10   0
INL  39  68  38  62 /  30   0   0   0
BRD  45  60  43  65 /  60  60  10   0
HYR  44  56  40  61 /  60  50  10   0
ASX  40  52  38  54 /  60  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM....GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING