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000
FXUS63 KDLH 160527
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1227 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FRESHENED UP TEMPERATURE AND WIND TRENDS THIS EVENING.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE SPRING
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHLAND LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THIS STORM...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS
NE/N-CENTRAL MN AND NW WI...AND AN EMBEDDED CORRIDOR OF +12
INCHES FROM AROUND HINCKLEY TO COPPER FALLS STATE PARK. THE
STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE FELT ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE...WHERE SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL REACH 20-30 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FROM EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH THUR MORNING. CHECK THE LATEST
WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS CONCERNING THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THESE HEADLINES.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND
ROTATE EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AND INTERACT WITH A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW...STRONG WAA AND
ROBUST MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE AMT OF MESOSCALE FORCING FROM STRONG MID-
LEVEL F-GEN WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF ENHANCE LIFT WITHIN THE
FAVORABLE DGZ AND PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER
HOUR. THIS PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM THE LATE
MORNING PERIOD THROUGH THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. ROAD
CREWS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME KEEPING UP WITH THE RAPIDLY
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH
THE HEAVY SNOW. LATEST NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE AN AREA OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIOD...WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW EPISODES OF THUNDER ACROSS NW
WI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.  WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION SEEMINGLY THE TREND ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS..WE EXPECT
FAIRLY DECENT SNOW TO STILL BE FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER
TO THIRD OF THE DULUTH CWA. NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING EDGE OF INSTABILITY RESERVOIR ALOFT TO THE SOUTH
/REVEALED BY BOTH CAPE AND EPV* CROSS SECTIONS/ AND EXTREMELY
TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PUSH CLOSE TO PRICE COUNTY WED
EVENING..WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST MODERATE PRECIP RATES TO
PERSIST. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL ON PTYPE OVER PRICE
COUNTY..SOUNDING TAKEN AT FACE VALUE SUGGEST A SNOW/SLEET MIX IS
POSSIBLE..BUT HEAVY PRECIP RATES AND DIABATIC COOLING EFFECTS
COULD RESULT IN ALL/MOSTLY SNOW. VERY STRONG ENE GRADIENT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONG WINDS
AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW..ALONG WITH GALES NEAR THE SW TIP OF LK
SUPERIOR.

STORM SHOULD WIND DOWN LATE WED NIGHT..WITH SNOW ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST AND WINDS STARTING TO DECREASE. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT CHILLY AND BLUSTERY AS THE SECONDARY MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROF TRAVERSES THE AREA..BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME SUN IN
MOST AREAS. VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ALSO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BEYOND THURSDAY..A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD..WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
09Z...AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE AREA. SNOW TO
SPREAD INTO KBRD 09Z-12Z...KDLH AND KHYR 12-15Z...AND THEN KHIB
15-18Z. CONDITIONS IN SNOW TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH MVFR TO IFR
AND REMAIN THERE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH KBRD...KDLH AND KHYR
EVEN GOING TO LIFR. NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER 15Z...AND
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 FOR ALL THREE
SITES AS WELL. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TO BEGIN FOR KBRD AFTER
01Z...BUT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KDLH AND KHYR THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. KHIB TO REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE STORM AND EXPECT NO WORSE THAN IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS 21Z-02Z
IN LIGHT SNOW. KINL TO REMAIN VFR UNTIL LOW CLOUDS SPREAD IN AFTER
02Z WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19  36  20  38 /  60  20  10  10
INL  14  37  19  42 /  20  10   0   0
BRD  21  38  24  43 /  30  10  10  10
HYR  24  38  21  41 /  80  20  10  10
ASX  23  36  21  38 /  80  30  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR MNZ034-036-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR MNZ012-019-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR MNZ020-037.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR MNZ033-035.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ006.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004-007>009.

LS...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     LSZ143>145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...LE