Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 201750

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1150 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

A dry and mild airmass in place across our region will lead to
another warm November day for the Central Plains. The pattern aloft
featured west to northwest flow, while farther upstream a clipper
system and associated cold front was translating southeast from
Alberta. An jet streak and swath of high level cloud cover was
migrating southeast from the northern plains which will be moving
into our area this afternoon/tonight. Have went a little more
conservative for temperatures today given the expected increasing
cloud cover with highs still averaging in the 60s, and very nice for
November. The dry airmass and downslope westerly wind component
should allow for a quick rise in temperatures today, with readings
then stalling heading into the afternoon as clouds increase.

Afternoon mixing will result in wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph at times
this afternoon especially across our western zones. In the dry
airmass with low relative humidities, near critical fire weather
conditions are forecast which is discussed in the fire weather
section below.

The passage of a surface trough axis will shift winds to the
northwest this evening then a cold frontal boundary moves through
tonight. Models are beginning to show the potential for some
light precipitation with the frontal passage tonight into early
Tuesday morning which primarily looks like a sprinkles, and have
went with some silent pops for now and will monitor. Otherwise
look for cooler and windy conditions heading into Tuesday behind
the cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Tuesday is shaping up to be the coldest day of the week behind the
boundary, with the colder airmass aggravated by gusty north
winds. A 1030mb surface high builds south onto the plains during
the day, also reinforcing the colder airmass.

The colder air will be shortlived and dislodges Wednesday as upper
ridging expands east of the Rockies onto the plains. The influence
of the upper ridge and warm air will hold through Thanksgiving, with
highs Thanksgiving forecast near or in the 60s. The remainder of the
holiday weekend remains dry through Sunday. While still warm and
well above normal for highs on Friday, the upper ridge axis does
break down at the end of the week, with temperatures forecast to
cool back to the 50s for highs Saturday and Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Overall...VFR CIGS/VSBYS are anticipated through the period. That
said...increasing mid/high level clouds can be expected ahead of
an approaching cold front this afternoon and through the overnight
hours. As clouds to continue to thicken and lower to near 10kft
overnight...expect and abrupt shift in winds with the passage of
the cold front around 21/12Z...with gusts to near or above 20 KTS
possible during the morning hours Tuesday.


Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Fire weather conditions will be near critical and potentially
may reach critical values this afternoon. Afternoon low relative
humidity values will average in the teens to the 20th percentile
across our entire area. Winds however will be the strongest across
our western cwa, generally west of Highway 281 and north of
Highway 6 in south central Nebraska with wind gusts of 20 to 25
mph forecast. While conditions may reach criteria at times,
confidence is not high that fire weather conditions will be met
for a full three hours, therefore have held off on a red flag
warning headline and will continue to mention the fire weather
concerns in the hazardous weather outlook.




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