Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 050558
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1258 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ALOFT: THE RIDGE OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THRU TOMORROW. THE LOW DROPPING DOWN THE WA COAST WILL DRIFT
INLAND OVER THE PAC NW. NO EMBEDDED TROFS IN THE FLOW.

SURFACE: THE POLAR FRONT WAS QUASI-STATIONARY WELL TO THE N-NW...
EXTENDING FROM CNTRL CANADA THRU ND-WY-NV. THE LEE-SIDE TROF WILL
REMAIN OUT TO THE W OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE
LITTLE THRU TOMORROW.

THIS AFTERNOON: ANOTHER DAY OF SUMMER HEAT...BUT THE S WINDS
GUSTING 23-33 MPH E OF HWY 183 IS TAKING THE EDGE OFF.

TONIGHT: VARIABLE BETWEEN M/CLEAR AND P/CLOUDY. CAN`T ENTIRELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM...BUT PROBABILITY IS VERY LOW. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

WHATEVER LIMITED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN THE LEE TROF...IT SHOULD REMAIN W OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S. NEAR
RECORD WARM LOWS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE DETAILS.

WHILE THE LOW-LVL JET WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT...THERE IS NOTHING
IN THE WAY OF HELP ALOFT. SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TSTM ACTIVITY.
ONLY TWO SREF MEMBERS OUTPUT A FEW SPITS OF QPF. SAME STORY WITH
THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. WAS TEMPTED TO
COMPLETELY DROP THE MENTION OF PRECIP TONIGHT.

SAT: ANOTHER P/SUNNY BREEZY HOT DAY. S WINDS WILL GUST 23-33 MPH.
A COUPLE TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE W OF THE FCST AREA...
SOMEWHERE FROM IML-LBF-ANW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN
OUTSIDE THE FCST AREA THRU 6 PM...BUT DO HAVE A 15-20% CHANCE IN
THE FCST W MAINLY OF HWY 183 AFTER 4 PM JUST IN CASE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THERE WILL BE CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS AS AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND
BREAKS DOWN THE INTERIOR CONUS RIDGE. A COOLER MORE SEASONAL
AIRMASS WILL ADVECT ONTO OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUASI ZONAL
FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK THE
EXTENDED MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH A TROUGH DEEPENING TO THE EAST FM THE HUDSON BAY THRU
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH FLOW TRANSITIONING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES.

STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF IDAHO INTO
MT. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST ALONG THE
HIGH PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST WRF MODELS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. THE NOCTURNAL LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO 40KTS SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A CONTINUED CHC FOR CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS.

ON SUNDAY CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING THEN ATTENTION
TURNS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING AND GRADUALLY ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. WITH THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND NEGLIGIBLE COOLING IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL LOOKING VERY
WARM/HOT SUNDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT
ASSESSMENT THAT HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN
THE HWO. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL
CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG OR
PERHAPS SEVERE STORM WITH SEVERE PROBS TRENDING UP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO KANSAS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST FM THE DAKOTAS EARLY MONDAY/LABOR DAY. TEMPERATURES
TREND COOLER COMPARED TO READINGS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING MORE SO IN THE 80S AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL AROUND 5C.
LABOR DAY IN GENERAL IS LOOKING UNSETTLED AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST AND THE SOUTHERN FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...AND
SCATTERED PCPN IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS
OUR REGION UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK WITH PCPN CHCS
CONTINUING...THEN ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THRU...
CONDITIONS TREND DRIER AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WORKWEEK AS FLOW TRANSITIONS NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAY INTERACT WITH THE LLJ TO HELP INITIATE
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
EVENSO...CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS FAIRLY LOW...SO OPTED NOT TO
MENTION A CB/VCTS IN THE CURRENT TAF AND ONLY INCLUDED SOME LLWS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODEST LLJ ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VARIABLE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS. WHILE WINDS SHOULD RELAX
SOME AFTER SUNSET...THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEADY NEAR OR ABOVE
12KTS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR A TSRA TO THE
REGION...AND OPTED TO INCLUDE A CB AND MENTION OF A VCTS IN 06Z
TAFS AFT 06/04Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE RECORD WARMEST TODAY AND TOMORROW. KEEP
IN MIND THESE AREN`T JUST MORNING LOWS. FOR THESE RECORDS TO BE
TIED OR BROKEN THEY HAVE TO SURVIVE ALL THE WAY THRU TIL MIDNIGHT.

      RECORD WARM LOWS
      FRI 9/4   SAT 9/5
GRI   72-1954*  75-1945
HSI   72-1925   74-1912

* INDICATES THIS OCCURRED MULTIPLE YRS. ONLY THE LATEST IS LISTED.

THIS MORNING`S LOW AT GRI WAS 71. SO GRI WILL NOT TIE OR BREAK
TODAY`S RECORD. THE LOW AT HSI WAS 72. SO THERE`S STILL A CHANCE
FOR A TIE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ROSSI
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB



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