Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 012037
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
337 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OCTOBER IS STARTING OFF IN A VERY WARM MANNER...WITH MID AFTERNOON
HIGHS SO FAR RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH LIGHT SE WINDS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE SW FROM THE NEW ENGLAND REGION
CONTINUED TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER SITUATION. CHANGES HOWEVER
ARE FORTHCOMING STARTING TOMORROW...AS A STRONG SYSTEM FORMING OVER
THE ROCKIES HEADS EASTWARD...AND BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WAS REFLECTED
VIA ANALYSIS OF EARLIER 500MB HEIGHTS...WITH TROUGHING PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

FOR TONIGHT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG FORMING IN FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS.
DID NOT PUT FOG/MIST IN THE GRIDS GIVEN VERY LOW COVERAGE EXPECTED.
A LAST VERY WARM TO HOT DAY IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S MOST SPOTS. A COUPLE OF SPOTS MAY
ACHIEVE 90. CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST...ESPECIALLY DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS NW
ALABAMA...SPREADING IT TO A BIT EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON.

MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE 12Z CYCLE WERE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND DURING FRIDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF WERE A BIT
SLOWER BRINGING SHOWERS AND THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. STORM
CHARACTER WISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND
SHEAR PATTERN PRECEDING THE FRONT...THUS THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD BECOME NEUTRALLY TO SLIGHT NEGATIVELY TILTED TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST...COINCIDING WITH THE GREATER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. THE COLD FRONT APPEARS WILL MAKE A MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY (MIDDAY) TIMEFRAME...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING
IN THE AFTERNOON.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE PLAYERS...MAYBE A LITTLE MORE
BRISK FOR THE FANS. LOWS BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID
40S...A RATHER SHARP DEPARTURE FROM THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HIGHS ON
SAT WILL ONLY RISE TO MID 60S. EVEN COOLER FOR DAYBREAK SUNDAY...
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. A FEW UPPER 30S CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
THE COLDER SPOTS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY
WARM A TAD NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. A REINFORCING CLIPPER
LIKE SYSTEM MOVING THIS DIRECTION IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DURING MON. BIG DIFFERENCES TIMING
WAS WAS NOTED BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...WITH THE EC MUCH FASTER AND
WETTER THAN THE GFS. LEANED TO THE EC SOLUTION...THUS DID NOT MAKE
BIG CHANGES TO THE ON-GOING GRIDS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN NEXT
TUE/WED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WITH SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HRS. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG AGAIN EARLY THU
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE PROB OF THIS FOG IMPACTING THE TWO MAIN
TERMINALS ARE FAIRLY LOW ATTM. LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN
TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THU...AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHRA/TSRA
THOUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER WAVE LOOKS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE W AFTER 18Z THU.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    62  90  68  78 /   0  20  80  60
SHOALS        62  90  68  78 /  10  30  80  60
VINEMONT      63  87  68  77 /   0  20  80  60
FAYETTEVILLE  60  88  66  77 /   0  20  80  60
ALBERTVILLE   63  86  66  75 /   0  20  70  80
FORT PAYNE    55  87  67  79 /   0  10  70  80

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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