Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 180006 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
606 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE
REMAINING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE UPPER
30S ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND IN THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WAS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS AREA AND
IS PROGGED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY...WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY EARLY FRIDAY...THE MODELS QUICKLY INDICATE THAT THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AREA. GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO FORM ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS BY
LATER FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING AS IT SHIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE
MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT INVOLVING LIFTING THE SYSTEM TO
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
LINGERING POPS EXPECTED.

A ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...BUT WILL ONLY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS
STATES AND WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY EARLY TUESDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI THROUGH OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z
TUESDAY. PRECIP WILL INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE SIGNIFICANT
INVOLVING BUILDING COLDER AIR SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY LATE
TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SURFACE-850 MILLIBAR TEMPS
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A
MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADDED IN
MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW AT LEAST UNTIL 18Z WEDNESDAY. SINCE
IT IS DAY SEVEN OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS WE NEAR CHRISTMAS. TEMPS
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS WILL DEFINITELY PLAY A
LARGE ROLE INVOLVING THE POTENTIAL OF WINTRY PRECIP. HAVE FOLLOWED
CLOSER TO THE LOWER ECMWF MODEL TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
A MIX OF HIGH AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF DAYBREAK. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE DISSIPATING, WITH
BKN/OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARND 9-10KFT.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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