Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 170527

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1227 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

For 06Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 930 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

A quiet night across the southern Tennessee Valley, with high
pressure at the surface building in. Light northerly winds will help
to reinforce this cool, dry air mass in place. Good radiational
cooling has taken place with the loss of heating -- and temperatures
have quickly dipped from the mid/upper 60s into the lower 50s as of
0230z. The dry air in place will allow lows to eventually bottom out
in the 40 to 45 degree range, generally by early Tuesday morning.
Dewpoints in the upper 30s to lower 40s should prohibit temperatures
from dropping off any further (which would eliminate any concerns
about patchy frost). A strong inversion in place will mean that the
warmest locations may be on some of the ridgetops of Northeast
Alabama and areas next to rivers/lakes (due to the warmer water

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

After the cool start to the morning with plenty of sunshine on
Tuesday, temperatures should rebound slightly (via a more easterly
flow) into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees on Tuesday. As a strong
area of high pressure remains over the eastern CONUS, highs should
climb into the lower to mid 70s by Wednesday (as more southeasterly
flow begins to develop over the area). Lows nudge up a bit on
Wednesday with values in the mid to upper 40s. All in all it will be
a nice start to the week with dry and pleasant conditions expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Flow will become more southerly into the end of the week, with highs
warming into the mid/upper 70s and lows around 50 degrees. A high
degree of uncertainty remains with newest model guidance concerning
an approaching frontal boundary and possible cut-off low situation
over the southeastern CONUS or Gulf of Mexico (depending on the
model). Regardless, some forcing likely moves into the area either
Sunday or Sunday night. At this point, went below guidance for pops,
given the strong nature of the ridge and since the better moisture
advection may remain to our south and west. Did included low end
scattered showers and thunderstorms by Sunday continuing into Monday
night to account for effects from this approaching frontal boundary.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

With a strong ridge of high pressure building ewd into the region,
VFR conds are xpcted thru the TAF period.





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