Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 271127 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
527 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER NW MO WITH A CDFNT ACROSS SERN MO. TEMPS
BEHIND THE CDFNT WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WHILE AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 30S. CLOUDS ALONG THE CDFNT MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM DROPPING REAL QUICK...BUT STILL THINK THAT WE WILL SEE MID
20S ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z. AFTN HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
30S THANKS TO GOOD CAA. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTN
BUT MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER
NRN TX.

SATURDAY THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW
TO SET UP ALONG WITH WARMER AFTN TEMPS. A RATHER COMPLICATED WX
PATTERN IS ALSO SHAPING UP SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. ANYHOW LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW
OVER THE SWRN US WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SNOW
STORM OVER THE MIDWEST. THE TN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
STORM WITH RAIN ON SUNDAY...WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY.

MONDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH EAST OF THE CWA A DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ATTM INSTABILITY/8H WINDS WILL BE
WEAK ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHC OF STORMS AS A CDFNT APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY ATTM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
CAPES 300/400 J/KG AND MINUS 2 LI`S. 8H WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ARND
50 KTS. AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON TUESDAY TEMPS MAY SOAR TO NEAR 70 IN
SOME LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60. THE CHC OF STORMS SHOULD
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MRNG/AFTN BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THE EARLY
EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE TO LIMITED FOR
ANY PCPN.

THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY (ACCORDING TO
THE BLENDED MODELS)BEFORE ENDING BY THE EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...OVC CIGS AROUND 2KFT ARE STILL HOLDING ACROSS BOTH
TERMINALS. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF
THAT SCATTERING OUT AND SHOULD BE INTO KMSL SOON...WILL GO WITH 14Z
IN THE TAFS. FEW/SCT CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 14-16Z BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A BKN CIG HERE AND THERE. CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN THICKEN BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT 8-10KFT AFTER ABOUT 22-23Z TODAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5-10 KT OUT OF 350-030 DEGREES.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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