Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 270812
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
212 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER JET CORE OF 130-140KT DIVING SE THRU THE REGION THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT EWD TODAY ALLOWING A RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT INTO THE MS, OH
AND TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD
WAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT E THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT, PRECIP
RETURNS IN MIDDLE TN SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NE THIS MORNING, SO
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND ABOUT 5
DEGREES OR SO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S-L50S. A CLEAR-MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH COLD NELY FLOW DROPPING LOWS INTO THE 20S. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DRY ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT FZFG DEVELOPMENT
AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LOW OFF SOCAL IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY MAKE A RIGHT TURN THRU
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND THRU THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY AND TN/OH VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. DECENT POSITIVE DPVA AND -DIVQ
VALUES INDICATE GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING, BUT MOISTURE REMAINS A LARGE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
-SHRA ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF. DRY WEATHER IS FORESEEN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF LEAD
SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC BASED UPPER TROF. LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR FED BY E-SELY FLOW AND PSBL CAD WILL LIKELY DELAY WIDESPREAD
PRECIP UNTIL SUNDAY. A MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE SUPPLY IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY THE SFC LOW TRACKS NW OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AND A LLJ AXIS IS ABLE TO PENETRATE FURTHER NWD INTO THE REGION. WILL
GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR IF ENOUGH COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE BEFORE THE MOISTURE DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT, SO HAVE OPTED
TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1101 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLEARING LINE WAS JUST WEST OF KMSL. BASED ON STLT
TRENDS LOOKS LIKE MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS KMSL OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE (NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES) MOVES SE.
OTHERWISE THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NE US WILL KEEP CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THRU THE FCST PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    51  28  53  37 /  10   0   0  10
SHOALS        49  28  51  39 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      48  28  48  37 /  10   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  43  26  49  36 /  10   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   47  27  49  34 /  10   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    47  27  47  32 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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