Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 230544

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1144 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

For 06Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 902 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Moderate/heavy rainfall continues to affect portions of n cntrl and
NE AL this late Sun evening. Sporadic reports of minor/localized
flooding have been received in parts of the area over the evening
period, mainly in Cullman and Madison Counties. Areal Flood Warnings
remain in effect for much of the cntrl TN Valley, although these will
likely be cancelled early or allowed to expire as the overnight hrs
begin, with the rainfall beginning to taper off across NW AL. This
trend will gradually continue ewd after midnight, as both the sfc and
upper low move well e of the local area. With cooler air beginning to
stream sewd into the area along the back side of the sfc low, any
lingering instability also looks to have shifted ewd and thus limited
the chc for any further embedded tstms along/e of I-65. The forecast
has been updated to reflect precip starting to taper off across the
wrn zones, with a gradual diminishing trend xpcted elsewhere into the
overnight period. Early morning temps Mon were also adjusted a tad to
account for current trends and thunder was removed from the forecast
for the remainder of this evening. No changes were needed to the
current Wind Advisory xpcted to begin at 3 AM CST, as sfc winds out
of the nw begin to increase with the influx of cooler air.

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 203 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Be sure to double up on the hair spray on Monday as those winds will
be cranking, especially through midday. The high resolution guidance
indicates a 10 millibar surface gradient from west/east across the
state and 925 millibar winds approaching 50 knots. This will likely
equate to gusts of 40 mph, perhaps higher over elevated areas. We may
see some light rain/showers linger in the eastern counties through
midday and included the PoPs from the blended suite of guidance. Also
held the clouds in through early afternoon based on a rather stout
low level inversion in place.

Surface high builds across the region Monday night with temperatures
dropping down into the 30s for the first time in over 10 days. We
should see a rather nice warmup on Tuesday with a quick transition to
return flow by the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

At the start of this period (Wednesday and Wednesday night), a
passing upper level system mainly south of the region, in a zonal
predominate cyclonic flow south of an upper low, will bring rain
chances back to the Tennessee Valley for the mid week. Decent amount
of upglide in the 290-295K region should result in mostly light and
stratiform type rain. This rain will come to an end during Wed night,
as a cold front pushes across the forecast area. High temperatures in
the low/mid 60s on Wednesday will be the last of a warm trend for a
while, as cooler air will filter in for the latter half of the week
and upcoming weekend.

We are currently in the midst of the 3rd longest stretch in January
of above freezing temperatures. This will be coming to an abrupt end,
as temperatures for the latter week and beyond will cool close to,
or below seasonable norms (around 52/32 by the upcoming weekend). As
noted above, highs on Thursday will struggle into the mid/upper 40s.
This cooler trend thanks to a continuing northwest flow and lower
heights/thickness values --- this is despite partly to mostly sunny
skies. Night-time lows Thursday and Friday night will cool to around
freezing both nights, and likely below freezing for the weekend.
Conditions appears will be dry into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Strong surface low located across nw GA is forecast to shift rapidly
enewd off the southern mid-Atlantic coast by end of TAF period.
Widespread ra on the nwrn periphery of this system will primarily
impact locations from HSV ewd for the next 4 hrs before pushing
further into TN/GA. However, a few lighter shra will be psbl invof of
both terminals thru 10-14Z. Otherwise, low stratus clouds will
prevail for the duration of the forecast period, with bkn cigs
expected arnd 1500 ft. Sfc winds will remain from the nw, with speeds
increasing to 12g22 kts by 14Z and continuing in this range thru
late aftn before gradually diminishing.


AL...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for TNZ076-096-097.




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