Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 302318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
618 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

For 00Z TAFs.


(Issued 219 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016)
2PM observations are coming in with temps in the lower 90s and dew
points in the middle 60s with a few locations in the lower 60s. Mostly
sunny skies are in place with a scattered cumulus field developing.
UAH GOES-R Convection Initiation product is showing some higher
probabilities along the Cumberland Plateau which has been verifying
with a few showers starting to develop. Could see a few of these make
it into our central middle TN counties and/or a few showers develop
over the next few hours. Any showers/storms should dissipate quickly
with sunset with a dry night ahead and lows in the lower 70s.

The ridge and surface high pressure that has been controlling the
weather for the past few days finally breaks down on Wednesday. An
upper low develops north of the Great Lakes with a cold front draped
across the central midwest. Ahead of that, a weak trough will move
south towards the area Wednesday afternoon. Guidance has been
consistent on washing this boundary out somewhere over or just south
of our area with winds shifting out of the north with its passage.
There will be a brief increase in clouds and possibly some showers
and storms but will confine the isolated wording to the northern part
of the CWA. Instability is actually unimpressive for this time of
year so not sure if we will even get many rumbles out of it. Highs on
Wednesday will still be able to reach the lower to middle 90s as most
of the area will be under mostly sunny skies. Lows will be in the
lower 70s.

Although there will be a brief drying with this trough, the drier
air will follow in quickly behind the actual front, which should
move through by Thursday evening. Instability increase with this
system with enough of an increase in PW and moisture to allow for
isolated showers/storms area wide with higher chances near the higher
terrain. With the rain and clouds, highs Thursday may only reach
around 90. The first sign of "cooler" air will be lows Thursday night
dropping to the lower 60s farther north and upper 60s/near 70

Labor Day weekend and into the new work week looks dry and pleasant
for this time of year. With high pressure settling over the region
and an impressive amount of dry air, per the cross sections, the
chance of rain from Saturday through Wednesday is less than 10
percent with mostly sunny/clear skies. Highs will be in the upper
80s to around 90. Afternoon dew points will be in the mid 60s which
will keep the heat index value from being higher than the actual



For 00Z TAFs: High pressure over the region will keep vfr conditions
for both KMSL and KHSV thru the fcst period.



.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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