Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 300133
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
933 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NE FL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHILE SE GA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX WILL RE-IGNITE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION WHICH WILL TRACK
INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD NE FL TOWARDS MORNING...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS INLD NE FL DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE E-NE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REST OF NE FL
AND SE GA...THEN INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND LINGERING IN THE SE
GA REGION DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH MAIN
IMPACTS GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH LIGHTNING/WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THEY
REACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE MAX HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY MERGE WITH A STATIONARY SEA BREEZE
FRONT RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES. STORM COVERAGE OVERALL ON TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE 30-50% RANGE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE MORNING
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF NE FL AND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE BEACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND GNV
THROUGH 03Z. PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT VQQ
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT GNV AFTER 13Z...WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY TOWARDS 16Z. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY...A PROB30 GROUP WAS USED FOR GNV. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AT THE REMAINDER OF THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND HAVE INDICATED VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE AFTER 18Z. WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
EXPECTED BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT...WITH HIGHEST
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN
THREAT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  94  71  92 /   0  30  30  60
SSI  75  90  75  89 /  20  30  30  50
JAX  72  93  74  92 /  20  40  20  60
SGJ  74  92  75  89 /  20  30  20  60
GNV  72  92  72  91 /  30  40  20  60
OCF  72  92  73  91 /  40  40  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALKER


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