Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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618
FXUS62 KJAX 240807
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
355 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM.../through Wednesday/...

Surface high pressure will be East of the region this period, as an
upper high builds from the Southwest. Dry air will remain in place,
with temperatures near normal.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...

Models show mean high pres ridge just north of the area providing
for east to southeast low level flow during this period. Progs and
soundings show some low level moisture that will likely result in
some late morning and afternoon cumulus but subsident conditions and
PWATs below 1 inch strongly suggest it`s too dry for any mention of
showers. By the end of the period...most models bring an inverted
low level trough westward over the Wrn Atlantic resulting in local
low level flow to back somewhat...becoming northeasterly Thursday
night. High temps will continue near normal....with lows a few
degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...

The suite of model guidance shows inverted trough moving across the
Western Atlantic and northwestward toward the SE U.S. coast.
As expected...models differ in regard to any development into a low
pressure system and mass moisture fields. The current forecast shows
SW-NE low level troughing over the region beginning during the
weekend and continuing through Memorial Day. Details of this
forecast are quite uncertain given model differences but generally
we expect a better chance of showers and storms mainly starting
Saturday and continuing into early next week. But even our forecast
of the chance of rain may be pessimistic as we may remain on the
drier side of the system. There should also be increased threat of
rip currents due to onshore flow and building seas in the coastal
waters. Temperatures will trend near climo values for late May.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing vfr conditions will persist this 06z taf period.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will be East of the region through Thursday. A wave of
low pressure is expected to develop Friday into Saturday over the
Western Atlantic. There is a great deal of uncertainty as to the
strength and location of this low for the upcoming weekend at this
point.

RIP CURRENTS: An elevated risk of rip currents is expected for
much of this week due to onshore flow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Rh values will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s
today and Wednesday but winds and ERC values will preclude need for
red flags. Dispersion values may be elevated over parts of NE FL
today and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  63  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  85  70  85  70 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  87  63  87  65 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  84  68  85  69 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  89  62  90  62 /  10  10  10   0
OCF  89  62  90  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Struble/Shashy



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