Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 110851
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
351 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME CENTERED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5
KNOTS HAVE KEPT TEMPS SOMEWHAT IN CHECK AS TEMPS HAVE BEEN
BOUNCING BETWEEN 30 AND 34 DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS WITH TEMPS
STILL CLOSER TO 40 DEGREES AT THE COAST. STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO
BECOME MOSTLY CALM AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE AND GIVEN THE LOW
DEWPOINTS (LOW TO MID 20S)...THERE REMAINS A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS TO CRASH INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WITH
EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE BEACHES...THUS THE FREEZE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH 9 AM.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO SE GA FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND THIS WILL KEEP OUR
AREA IN THE "WARMER" SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL RISE COME UP QUITE A BIT TODAY AND THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO A MUCH MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS. AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE REMAINING CLOSE
TO THE COAST WILL KEEP THE BEACHES A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS
NEAR 60.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SE GA THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE RATHER MODEST
SO WE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT BUT THERE
COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR TWO. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/...

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF SOUTH CAROLINA ALONG A
STALLED BOUNDARY STRETCHING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE
LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WITH A BREEZY AND WARM WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY
MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
7-16 DEGREES BELOW FRIDAYS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A LIGHT
FREEZE IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY. EAST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVERS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S DUE ONSHORE FLOW.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. COASTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE
EVENING AS WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY AND PHASE WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY...BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9Z THIS
MORNING AND WILL BE REPLACED WITH AN SCEC UNTIL THE MID MORNING
UPDATE. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN VEER AND BECOME ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  48  71  42 /   0  10  10   0
SSI  53  47  66  44 /   0  10  10   0
JAX  63  47  75  47 /   0  10  10   0
SGJ  62  49  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  65  45  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  66  43  73  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COASTAL DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-COLUMBIA-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-INLAND DUVAL-INLAND NASSAU-MARION-PUTNAM-
     ST. JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHULER/KENNEDY/


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