Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 230751

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
351 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.NEAR TERM (Through Tonight)...
Some patchy fog across southeast Georgia and west of Highway 301
in northeast Florida this morning. Breezy onshore winds are
pushing a few clusters of showers inland, and waves of showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move onshore as we
go through the morning and into the afternoon. High temperatures
in the mid to upper 80s are expected as clouds increase. Pressure
gradient tightens and breezy conditions are expected across the
area today as surface high pressure across the Ohio Valley
strengthens, and Hurricane Maria turns northward. Upper level low
across the Florida Panhandle is expected to move southwest into
the Gulf, and shift upper level flow more southerly. PWATs
approaching 2 inches are possible later today, so while mean flow
should keep showers moving westward at a steady clip, localized
areas could see heavy rainfall. Temperatures in the mid-levels
will be on the rise as the low moves away, but a few stronger
thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible this afternoon and
early evening with 500mb temperatures still between -7 to -9 C.
Rain chances will end from west to east by late afternoon/early
evening. Winds will decrease over land tonight and remain
northeasterly. Overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70 are
expected inland, and mid 70s closer to the coast.


.SHORT TERM (Sunday through Monday)...
Hurricane Maria will be moving north well east of our coastline
near longitude 72.5W. Breezy ne winds along the east coast on
Sunday will weaken on Monday as high pressure to the north starts
to weaken and Maria shifts further away. Drier air over the area
and subsidence around Maria will decrease shower activity.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Friday)...
Dry weather expected through most of next week as Hurricane Maria
moves up the east coast and an upper trough amplifies over the
eastern U.S. by late week. A dry nw flow will keep pops nil for ne
Fl/se GA through Thursday. An approaching cold front may produce
a slight chance for rain on Friday. Temperatures will be a few
degrees above normal through the period.


Patchy IFR/MVFR fog will continue across southeast Georgia, and
inland locations across northeast Florida could see some brief fog
as well this morning. Showers are increasing in coverage across
the coastal waters and moving inland already, and this is expected
to continue this morning and through the afternoon. Expect periods
of showers and some rumbles of thunder with associated MVFR
conditions across all the TAF sites, though confidence is low in
exact timing. Showers will end from east to west by late
afternoon/early evening. Medium confidence that clouds will lift
into the VFR range for most of Saturday night and into Sunday


Small Craft Advisory continues as swells from Maria increase
today, and northeast winds will also increase to around 20 knots.
Seas in the near shore waters will build to 5-7 feet this
morning, and peak in the 6-9 foot range from tonight through
Monday night. 6 to 9 foot waves offshore will peak in the 10-12
foot range late tonight through Monday. SCA level seas are likely
to persist for much of next week in the offshore waters due to
large swells from Maria, which is expected to turn northeastward
by late next week. Maria will pass our latitude on Monday well to
our east, allowing winds to shift to a northerly and then
northwesterly direction with decreasing speeds by late Monday and

Rip Currents/High Surf: High risk of Rip Currents expected at area
beaches this weekend as swells from Major Hurricane Maria
gradually build. A high surf advisory will likely be required for
coastal locations beginning tonight or early Sunday morning for
breakers in excess of 7 feet. Beach erosion will become an
increasing concern during times of high tide late this weekend and
early next week.


A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in place through the Saturday
evening high tide cycle for the St. Johns River basin, as minor
flooding continues during each high tide cycle from Jacksonville
southward to Palatka. Further south, flooding approaches moderate
levels into the Welaka and Ocklawaha River basins. Strengthening onshore
winds may keep the risk of minor to moderate flooding in place
during times of high tide into early next week.

Moderate flooding continues along portions of the Santa Fe and St.
Mary`s Rivers, with minor flooding along the Satilla River east of
Waycross and portions of the Upper Suwannee River north of I-10.


AMG  87  68  87  68 /  40  10  10   0
SSI  83  75  84  73 /  30  10  10   0
JAX  85  73  85  71 /  50  20  20  10
SGJ  85  75  85  73 /  50  20  10  10
GNV  87  71  87  69 /  50  10  20   0
OCF  87  71  88  70 /  50  20  10   0


FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for Clay-
     Coastal Duval-Flagler-Inland Duval-Putnam-St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to
     Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina
     Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St.
     Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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