Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KJAX 041843
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
143 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN THU THEN MUCH COOLER FRI...

.NEAR TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER AN
EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD BUT ORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED
GIVEN ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR. BREEZY SSW WINDS WILL BACK
SLIGHTLY SSE ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS BUT MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS INLAND DUE TO DEEP LAYER
SW FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO RISE TO NEAR RECORD RECORD
VALUES IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

EXPANSIVE AREAS OF LOW STATUS AND ADVECTIVE SEA FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
VISIBLE SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWED POCKETS OF SEA FOG FORMING IN
APALACHEE BAY. FOG WILL EDGE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH
HEATING WILL BE LIFTED INTO THE CUMULUS FIELD. BY EVENING AS TEMPS
COOL...THE FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INLAND FROM SW TO
NE THROUGH SUNRISE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE STRATUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF DENSE FOG
BECOMES WIDESPREAD IN NATURE. MIN TEMPS WILL COOL ONLY INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM...THU-SAT...

A WARM DAY THU THEN MUCH COOLER FRI & SAT WITH LOW CHANCES OF
PASSING SHOWERS.

AFTER MORNING FOG LIFTS BETWEEN 9-11 AM...ANOTHER NEAR RECORD
WARMTH DAY EXPECTED THU UNDER BREEZY WSW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING SHEARED OUT COLD FRONT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN THU AFTN THEN AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS EJECT TO THE NE OF THE
REGION...THE FRONTAL ZONE AND PRECIP FIELD WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI BRINGING MAINLY A CHANCE OF
PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF ISOLATED TSTORMS ACROSS INLAND SE GA THU AFTN DUE TO INCREASED
INSTABILITY PHASED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING. TSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL DECREASE THU EVENING AS INSOLATION IS LOST AND THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NE FL WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO STALL. FOG WILL
LIKELY FORM AGAIN THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BRINGING LOWS IN
THE 40S OVER SE GA BY DAYBREAK FRI MORNING TO THE 50S OVER MUCH OF
NE FL.

FRI TEMPS WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS GIVEN WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND COOL NNE FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FRI NIGHT THE FRONTAL ZONE IS BRIDGED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHUNTS THE MOISTURE
FIELD AND COOLER TEMPS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF NE FL WITH
LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN TO LOWER
50S TOWARD OCALA.

SAT DRIER AIR FINALLY INFILTRATES FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR SE GA BY MIDDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
OVER NE FL WHERE HIGHS WILL NEAR THE LOW/MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...SUN-WED...

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL
ZONE MEANDERS OVER N-CENTRAL FL WITHOUT ANY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS TO EJECT THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD. WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS EACH PERIOD AND TEMPS REBOUNDING FROM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS MODERATING INTO THE 50S
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HIGHS IN THE 70S BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS GUSTING AROUND 20
KTS. LOW CIGS AND BR ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE KEPT LOW END IFR CONDITIONS
IN THE 18Z PACKAGE WITH MEDIOCRE CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CIGS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...LIFR CIGS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN FUTURE UPDATE AS LOW
CLOUD DECK MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TODAY INTO THURSDAY. BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS...WILL DROP THE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS TONIGHT AND CARRY SEAS 3-5 FT UNDER SOUTH WINDS 15 KTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND THU. INCREASED RISK FRI AND SAT
DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY. A
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE OVER INLAND SE GA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PASSING SHOWERS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY...

    TODAY THURSDAY
JAX    86 (1997)87 (1997)
GNV    89 (1997)87 (1997)
AMG    86 (1961)87 (1969)
SSI    85 (1953)    83 (1985)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  83  44  46 /   0  60  60  40
SSI  62  78  47  48 /   0  20  30  40
JAX  63  85  52  52 /   0  10  20  30
SGJ  65  82  57  57 /   0   0  20  30
GNV  63  85  57  60 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  63  85  60  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/GUILLET



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.