Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 271456
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
956 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

.UPDATE...Surface high pressure over coastal DelMarVa region is
providing an onshore flow to our region this morning. There is a
surface warm front that extends from our southern offshore waters
into Palm Coast through the north central part of the peninsula
into the Cedar Key region. The onshore flow will continue
through the day, allow the lower atmosphere to moisten as the day
progresses with our temperatures moderating to warmer side mainly
upper 70s to lower 80s. An inversion was discerned on the JAX
upper air sounding this morning, between 920-850 mb level. This
will hold off any isold convection for our area later this
afternoon and early evening as surface temperatures warm. The
southeast radar mosiac shows some convection downstream over
central Alabama and south central Mississippi. Southeast Georgia
may see an uptick of scattered showers with isolated and embedded
thunder by later afternoon as a weak disturbance in the zonal flow
aloft moves just north of the Altamaha by afternoon. At the same
time, the aforementioned warm front will move northward today,
initially with some isolated /scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms developing across the southern tier zones across
north central Florida by early afternoon with CAPES increasing
into the 750-1200 J/kg across northeast Florida by late afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through this
evening. A brief restriction will be possible this afternoon and
evening in isolated to scattered showers and storms. During the
late night hours / pre-dawn hours into the early daylight hours
Tuesday, patchy fog will become dense reducing vsbys from a half
to a quarter mile between 09z and 13z. VFR conditions will
recommence after 14z Tuesday as warming occurs eroding the fog.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will be Northeast and East of the region through
Wednesday. A warm front will lift North over the region This
Afternoon into Tonight, bringing the chance for storms. A cold
front will cross area waters from the Northwest on Thursday. High
pressure will build to the North Friday into Saturday.

Rip Currents: enhanced rip current risk today through Tuesday
due to onshore flow and building surf conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Rh values will remain above critical levels
today through Tue but dispersion levels will be higher than on
Sunday over inland areas due to increased mixing heights and
transport winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  58  86  63 /  20  30  10   0
SSI  74  62  78  65 /  30  40  10  20
JAX  78  60  83  64 /  30  40  10  10
SGJ  79  64  80  64 /  20  30  10  10
GNV  82  60  85  63 /  30  30  10  10
OCF  83  61  85  64 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Cordero/Wolf/Walker


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