Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 230653
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
253 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Surface high pressure will be southeast of the region this
period. With this pattern a prevailing southwesterly flow will be
expected. Convection will continue to develop over the
northeastern Gulf early this morning and move ashore, then move
further northeast across the region Today as the west coast sea
breeze pushes well inland. The east coast sea breeze is not
expected to move onshore, so this convection should move across
the region, and largely be offshore early this evening.

Temperatures will trend below normal inland northeast Florida
Today due to coverage of convection and clouds, with readings near
normal elsewhere.

.SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday Night/...

Overview: The short term period begins with A deep layer ridge
over the western Atlantic, with the upper ridge axis stretching
across the Florida straits (low/mid level axis across south
Florida), a shortwave stretching from central Florida into the
western Atlantic, and an upper trough digging across the
northeastern conus. An upper ridge will also be across the Four
Corners region. Deep southwest to westerly flow will prevail.
Heights will rise through Tuesday as the upper ridge drifts
northward across the Florida peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, and
this subsidence is forecast to lead to lower rain chances across
north central Florida on Tuesday. A frontal boundary will stall
across northern Georgia through Tuesday, and various shortwaves
will move across the region. An area of low pressure is forecast
to develop across Alabama late Tuesday and then move slowly
towards southeast Georgia by Wednesday morning.

Monday and Monday Night: Showers and isolated storms are likely
to be ongoing across the Gulf coast Monday morning. Scattered
showers and storms will then spread across the rest of the region
through the afternoon hours, ending in the early evening. The east
coast sea breeze will be pinned along the coast due to the
westerly flow, and temperatures will rise to near 90 across the
west, and the lower 90s elsewhere. Overnight lows will be in the
70s.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night: Drier air is forecast to move into
north central and portions of northeast Florida on Tuesday from
the Gulf as the ridge builds northward, leading to slightly lower
rain chances. Enhanced rain chances are expected across southeast
Georgia Tuesday afternoon and evening as an area of low pressure
approaches the region. Highs are forecast to be in the lower 90s,
with lows in the 70s.

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Sunday/...

An area of low pressure is forecast to be near/over the region
Wednesday and Thursday, leading to enhanced rain chances. Deep
tropical moisture will reside over the area with relatively warm
temperatures aloft. This will lead to less prolific lightning
storms, but heavy rainfall producers. Scattered showers and storms
are expected Friday into Saturday, before an upper trough digs
south into the region late in the weekend. A frontal boundary may
get draped across the region on Sunday, and heavy rainfall is
possible if this occurs. Highs are forecast to be in the lower 90s
each day, with lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Patchy lower stratus early this morning is expected to dissipate,
giving way to prevailing VFR conditions later this morning.
Thunderstorms will move Northeast across the region this afternoon
into early this evening, with brief restrictions anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will be Southeast of the region early this
week. A trough of low pressure will move Southeast into the region
toward mid week, and weaken.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk Today, Low risk Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  75  92  74 /  30  30  50  20
SSI  90  77  90  78 /  30  30  50  30
JAX  89  74  92  75 /  60  40  50  20
SGJ  90  74  90  74 /  60  30  40  20
GNV  88  74  90  73 /  60  30  40  20
OCF  88  74  90  73 /  60  40  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Struble/Kennedy/


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