Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 060725
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
325 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SAT...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER DEEP LAYER WNW FLOW BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AFTER
NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A
FEW SURFACE TROUGHS WILL SWING SOUTHWARD WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN LOW/MID CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY SE GA THROUGH SAT MORNING...OTHERWISE
EXPECT PREVAILING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S TODAY UNDER BREEZY NW FLOW THEN NEAR CLIMO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 80S EXPECTED INLAND SAT. MINS TONIGHT WILL NEAR 50 INLAND
WITH WARMER UPPER 50S INLAND SAT NIGHT.

ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WERE NOTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AT HIGH
TIDE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEW MOON TODAY. WITH OFFSHORE FLOW...DO
NOT EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO NEAR MINOR FLOODING.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO ACROSS FL WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY SO NIL POPS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGING AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT
SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH MOVES
EAST. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY WNW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL TODAY WITH LIGHTER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE DECREASING WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER THE OFFSHORE
LEGS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CLOSE TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY WITH RH`S NEAR
CRITICAL VALUES AND WINDS NEAR 15 MPH OVER INLAND AREAS. RH`S WILL
BE LOW AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SELECTED RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES MORNING MAY 6TH:
ALMA................44 (1957)
ST. SIMONS ISLAND...50 (1973)
JACKSONVILLE........45 (1973)
GAINESVILLE.........48 (1970)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  52  82  59 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  74  54  79  62 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  75  53  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  73  57  78  62 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  76  51  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  76  51  81  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/ZIBURA


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