Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 221814
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
212 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN UPPER LOW TO THE
WEST...AND A SHORT WAVE TO THE EAST. WITH THIS PATTERN CONVECTION
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. CONVECTION
WILL FOCUS INITIALLY NEAR I75 AND I95 CORRIDORS ...THEN SHIFT
FURTHER INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANY STORMS WHICH
DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS...AS FLOW IS LIGHT. THEREFORE...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM AFTERNOON
STORMS. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHICH HAVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WESTERN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH AXIS SOUTH
OF THE REGION AND THIS WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY...BASICALLY NEAR CLIMO POP VALUES OF 30-40%. MAX
TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH
HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 DEGREES EACH DAY. ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
MAKE IT INLD TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR/ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN ON WEDNESDAY
THEN WILL BECOME PINNED ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AS THE W/SW
STEERING FLOW STRENGTHENS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.

.LONG TERM /FRI-TUE/...THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT TO ACROSS SOUTH CNTL
FL AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN THE SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN A
PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION DRIVEN BY THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE AND
BEING ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH END SCATTERED POPS EACH DAY WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGHEST HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE FOCUSED FOG
POTENTIAL AT KVQQ/KGNV.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY...WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY.
AN INCREASE IN WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGH...DUE TO
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  95  72  95 /  40  30  30  40
SSI  75  90  77  92 /  20  30  20  20
JAX  74  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  30
SGJ  74  90  76  93 /  20  30  30  30
GNV  71  94  72  94 /  30  30  30  20
OCF  72  94  73  94 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/HESS/NELSON




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