Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 180214
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
914 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.UPDATE...
The only major update this evening was to reduce the fog across
the region tonight. All available guidance does not show much in
the way of fog developing tonight. Light southwesterly winds will
favor fog developing over the Gulf waters and then moving over the
panhandle and into the big bend towards daybreak. However, high
clouds were beginning to stream in from the west, and this will
hamper fog formation. So, expect only patchy fog across the region
instead of areas of dense fog. Otherwise, temperatures will be in
the 50s tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...
More challenging fog forecast after last night`s decent fog event.
More of a SW surface flow pattern today compared to E/SE
yesterday. High-res model guidance showing much less fog over our
area tonight compared to the past few nights... with primary fog
threat suggested to be spreading in over areas well W of TAF sites
from NE Gulf of Mexico...with patchy radiation fog further east.
As usual...MOS guidance appears way overdone with dense fog most
locations tonight. Latest TAFs trend toward a later start time for
any fog...and considerably less dense/widespread nature of fog.
Given hi-res model guidance and short-range ensemble...potential
for trend to continue this way with even less in terms of low
conditions during 06-12z period than in latest TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds expected tonight. Removed the sea fog due to offshore
winds and high clouds forecast to move over the region tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  56  79  58  75 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  57  71  58  68 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  56  77  58  75 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  57  76  59  73 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  53  78  57  78 /   0   0  10   0
OCF  56  80  56  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Kennedy/Wolf



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