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647
FXUS62 KKEY 211022
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
522 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A Bermuda high remains parked in the western Atlantic, and a cold
front is draped across the Mississippi Valley, showing little
forward motion. Locally, temperatures are quite warm for the night
in the mid to upper 70s, and conditions are muggy with dew points
near 70. Strong east-southeasterly breezes are in place across
our Atlantic coastal waters, with steady 20-25 knots in the
Straits of Florida (as reported by passing ships). 15-20 knots
have been observed across our nearshore and offshore gulf waters.
Across the Florida Keys, ASOS and Wxflow stations report 20 mph
winds with higher gusts. The Pulley Ridge Buoy reports 4 ft seas
in the southeastern gulf.

.FORECAST...
The mean-layered ridging in the western Atlantic will remain in
control of our synoptic weather pattern, as it remains somewhat
stationary through the end of the week. Peaks and lulls in our
locally breezy pattern will occur due to fluctuations in the
pressure gradient as we remain on the southwestern periphery of
the high. In the short term, sfc-700 mb moisture will gradually
increase (as PWAT rises by near 0.3 inches) this afternoon and
into the night, so rain chances will reflect this pattern, peaking
at 30% on Thursday. Early this weekend, the ridge axis of the
Bermuda high will slide down the Florida Peninsula, decreasing
rain chances and winds. Early next week, a series of high pressure
cells will build across South Florida, the gulf, and the western
Atlantic, but the Keys will stay within the ridge axis, creating
pleasant weather conditions with mostly sunny skies only slight
chances of rain through mid-week. Temperatures will remain 5-10
degrees above normal.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Hawk Channel and the
Straits of Florida. Small Craft should exercise caution across the
Florida Bay, Bayside/Gulfside, and offshore Gulf Waters. A bermuda
high will extend across the Southeastern United States today
through Friday. This ridge of high pressure will shift southward
Friday night through Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
Until 00z/22nd, outside of a brief MVFR ceiling early this morning
and again late this afternoon, VFR conditions will prevail at the
island terminals. Mostly east winds of 10 to 15 knots will gusts to
20 to 25 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1958, the daily record low temperature of 51 degrees was last
recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  82  75  82  74 / 10 20 30 20
Marathon  83  76  82  75 / 10 20 30 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     GMZ042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MCLOVIN
Aviation/Nowcasts....APA
Data Collection...DR

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