Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 310019
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
819 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
MOST OF THE RETURNS FROM THE KBYX RADAR ARE ANTHROPOGENIC INSIDE THE
KEYS AREA AT THIS HOUR. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL THE
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS ALONG AND SURROUNDING THE KEYS. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS.

.FORECAST...
CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTH FLORIDA. THE FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
FRIDAY EVENING...BUT THE CHANGES INITIALLY WILL BE QUITE SUBTLE. A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY WILL WILL REINFORCE THE INITIAL FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION OF THE FALL SO FAR. AS
THE COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY
MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR WILL COINCIDE WITH A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE RIDGE WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH A CENTRAL CORE AROUND
1035 MILLIBARS. THOUGH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE CUT OFF
BY MONDAY...THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE STRONG WINDS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE KEYS WATERS THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THE GULF WATERS FIRST...THEN
SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE KEYS WATERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. A FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS TO THE ISLAND CHAIN BETWEEN 12Z AND AND 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1933...3.61 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST SETTING THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL ON OCTOBER 30TH.
THIS RECORD REMAINS STANDING AFTER 81 YEARS. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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