Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 271854

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
254 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...An elongated upper level low stretches southeast from
just east of Florida to the Western Caribbean near Jamaica. Dry
northwesterlies are apparent on water vapor imagery streaking towards
the base of the upper level trough. The 12Z KKEY, KTBW, and KMFL
soundings corroborated the mid-upper level winds and the dearth of
moisture, especially above 700 mb. Despite the hostility aloft, the
lower troposphere features steep lapse rates and adequate moisture.
The fuel-laden low levels have maintained spotty low topped showers
through the day which have found it hard to breach the 12 to 14 KFT
level. Temperatures are in the mid 80s and dewpoints have recovered
to near 70. Skies are mostly sunny.

.FORECAST...Very little change to the forecast tonight through
Wednesday. Steering will remain light and mostly variable...meanwhile
surface winds will be from the northeast to east and average less
than 10 knots. The boundary layer will be rich in theta-e...although
static stability will limit convective growth. The best chances for
showers and thunderstorms will hinge upon mesoscale processes and
boundary collisions. Cloud line genesis may have successes.
Temperatures will reach near 90 while overnight lows plummet into
the upper 70s. The pattern appears to change Wednesday night and
Thursday. Low level inhibition will erode, easterlies will freshen,
and the upper levels will cool. We advertise a near normal forecast
Wednesday night through Friday despite ingredients which would favor
higher precipitation chances and lower temperatures.


.MARINE...Low pressure northeast of Abaco Island will move
northwestward tonight, reaching South Carolina by Sunday, before
moving little Sunday night through Tuesday. As a result, a weaker
pressure pattern will develop across all Keys waters by tonight and
continue through the Memorial Day weekend.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions should continue tonight and early Saturday
morning at the Key West and Marathon terminals. Low level winds will
be light from the east.


.CLIMATE...In 1880, the high temperature in Key West only hit 79
degrees. This is a long-standing record cold high temperature for
May 27, since temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.


Key West  78  88  78  88 / 20 20 20 20
Marathon  78  90  78  90 / 20 20 20 20





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