Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 271510
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1110 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...The deep anticyclonic gyre persists across the
Appalachians, supporting a surface ridge axis along the coastal plain
of the eastern United States. Meanwhile, a tropical wave near the
central Bahamas is pressing west-northwest towards the Florida Keys.
The resulting squeeze play between the two features has resulted in a
deep layer of east-northeasterlies well sampled by this morning`s
KKEY RAOB. The profile is moderately unstable, weakly inhibited, and
extremely moist. The KBYX radar detects scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys, feasting
on the available fuel and moisture. Temperatures are in the mid to
upper 80s and dewpoints are near 80.

.FORECAST...The weakly cyclonic envelope of the western half of the
low pressure system to our east-southeast will engulf the Keys today
and tonight. Secondly, the wind profile will be favorable for a
cloud line to form along the island chain this afternoon. Finally,
steering would favor interactions from South Florida`s convection.
Rain and thunderstorm chances are likely, and we have updated the
forecast to account for this. The wind forecast remains challenging
due to widespread convection. However, the inherited forecast handles
these challenges well. No other changes needed.

&&

.MARINE...No current watches, warnings, or advisories. There is a
moderate risk for waterspouts today and they should be avoided at all
times. Wind and seas will be higher in and near numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms. A tropical wave axis will move through the
Keys Coastal waters Sunday and Sunday night, featuring shifting
winds, firs to the southeast, then south. Winds may be stronger than
forecasted Tuesday through Wednesday as the wave enters the central
Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...Rest of today, episodic shower and thunderstorms
activity will result in short duration MVFR/IFR cigs and/or VIS at
either KEYW and/or KMTH Int`l terminals, as well as isolated
convective wind gusts in excess of 25 knots. Outside of that,
prevailing conditions will be Surface winds from 070-080 degrees and
winds aoa 10 to 12 knots with gusts around 15 knots.

&&

.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Collection......Vickery

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