Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 270227
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1027 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. THIS EVENING`S RAOB ANALYSIS PLACES RISING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF. THE POLAR JET DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS...THEN
JOINS THE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS. AS A RESULT...A LARGE ZONE OF CYCLONIC...
CONVERGENT...AND CONFLUENT FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. DESPITE THE CONVECTIVE ACTION ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS INTACT...DRAPED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND AREA COASTAL WATERS. AN AREA OF LATE
EVENING SHOWERS MOVED NORTHEAST OFF THE CENTRAL CUBAN COAST INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THESE STUNTED SHOWERS HAVE THRIVED WITHIN THE
VEERING WIND PROFILE. IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD...SOME ELEMENTS MAY SKIM THE UPPER KEYS. THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO
15 KNOTS ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...FROM SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WILL
MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING. WEST BREEZES WILL FRESHEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN CLOCKWISE STARTING SOUTH TONIGHT TO
SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING AND WEST BY MID AFTERNOON. THEY WILL ALSO
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 12 KNOTS AND GUSTY WITH SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS. THIS WILL CAUSE CROSS-WINDS AT BOTH AIRPORTS. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH BASES AT 020.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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