Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251852
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
252 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Under mostly cloudy skies and southwest winds, temperatures range
between 85 and 90 degrees along the island chain. Meanwhile, local
radars are only detecting a few showers on the coastal waters
surrounding the Florida Keys.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
The persistent and atypically deep mid and upper level trough
covering the eastern United States southward into the extreme
southeastern Gulf of Mexico, will lift northward tonight and
Friday. Because of this, the western Atlantic ridge aligned
through the archipelago of Cuba will move northward into the
Florida peninsula and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface,
a subtle trough extending from south central Florida into the
extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico will limp into our area before
dissipating overnight. Given a decelerating and veering low and
mid level flow, low level confluence will weaken while large
ascent exits our region. However, believe mesoscale forcing in the
form of leftover boundaries and possible outflow boundaries from
deep convection to our west and south will provide the chance for
a spell of rainfall tonight. For Friday and this weekend, large
scale subsidence will keep moisture confined below 850 mb with
light and variable winds becoming light to gentle from the east.
Subsequently, dry air entrainment along with a weak steering flow
should limit shower activity. High temperatures in the upper 80s
with lows generally between 75 and 80 degrees seems on track.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
A deep layered anticyclone centered over the Florida peninsula
will slowly shift eastward, but a sharp western Atlantic ridge
will become anchored across the Sunshine State through the
period. Given mid and upper level descent, sub-synoptic forcing
will likely be the precipitation source. With that said, only
isolated 20 percent 12 hour pops which are a blend of the ECE/MES
MOS guidance will be retained. See no reason to stray from highs
in the upper 80s to near 90 with overnight lows in the upper 70s
to near 80 degrees.

&&

.MARINE...
Away from any showers or a stray thunderstorm, southwest to west
winds will abate appreciably this evening and early tonight before
becoming light and variable overnight. Light and variable winds
on Friday will gradually become mostly east at 10 knots or less to
begin this weekend. Thereafter, mainly east winds will slowly
increase by early next week, but no headlines are anticipated at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots will
continue for the EYW and MTH terminals through the afternoon.
Isolated showers could affect mainly EYW through early evening,
causing brief reduction to the visibility and ceilings. By tonight,
chances of rain will lower and winds will decrease becoming light
and variable.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1992, the daily record low temperature of 70 degrees was last
recorded in Key West. Temperature records have been kept since
1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  78  87  78  88 / 50 30 30 20
Marathon  78  91  78  91 / 50 30 30 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...APA
Aviation/Nowcasts....KN
Data Collection......Vickery

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