Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
075
FXUS62 KKEY 101925
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
225 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF CHAFF ON KBYX DOPPLER RADAR THIS AFTERNOON. UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A MODERATE BREEZE MAINLY FROM THE
NORTH...TEMPERATURES IN THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 65 DEGREES.

A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SHARPER WAVE SWINGING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
ALIGN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS ALIGNMENT WILL REMAIN INTO THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN BECOME REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH LATER
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. MOISTURE IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOWEST LAYERS OF THE
TROPOSPHERE...THEN GETS SCOURED AWAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. IT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER KEYS AS DRAINAGE FROM THE MAINLAND COULD BRING
TEMPERATURES TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE 50 DEGREE MARK. LOWER TO MID
50S ARE EXPECTED FURTHER DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. MODERATING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...ALBEIT SLOWLY...INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
LOWER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST. A SMALL AND
RELATIVELY SHALLOW POCKET OF MOISTURE GLIDES BACK ACROSS THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ACCOUNTING FOR A SMALL INCREASE IN MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES.
KEPT THOSE NUMBERS CAPPED AT 20 PERCENT FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLE...NAMELY FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE MAINTAINED FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT IF LATER MODELS CONTINUE THEIR TREND...THOSE NUMBERS
MAY TURN OUT TO BE GENEROUS. WILL SEE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND FOR THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STRAITS...SOUTH OF THE
LOWER KEYS AND SOUTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WILL
EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...ALLOWING MORE MODERATE AND NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS TIME...NO ADVISORIES
FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
FRESHENING NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON INTL AIRPORT TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1908...THE DAILY RAINFALL
RECORD OF 0.55 INCHES WAS SET IN KEY WEST FOR FEBRUARY 10. RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  56  66  60  73 / -  0 0 0
MARATHON  53  66  60  73 / -  0 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR GMZ033-034-054-055-074-075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.