Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 231730
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Local radar display shows a swath of light rain showers that has
increased in size over the last two hours moving into northern NEB.
Moisture in the column appears sufficient based on guidance and,
combined with the provided lift, should continue to track into the
Northern Sandhills through the small hours/through 12Z. Of which, an
upper-level PV anomaly is tracking southeast into SD providing large
scale forcing for ascent over much of the area as the wave
approaches. Meanwhile, this lift combined with a zone of lower
tropospheric deformation and frontogenesis appears supportive for
these sprinkles-very light rain showers across northern NEB early
this morning. Presently, traces have been recorded at Chadron,
Winner, Valentine, and Pine Ridge.

Otherwise, concerns today revolve around wind and elevated fire
weather conditions (please refer to the fire weather section for
information regarding fire weather). Not much change overall to the
inherited forecast with respect to winds/wind gusts - windy
conditions are expected today. Very good potential for upper-level
winds to mix via momentum transfer with a strong belt of winds
overhead at lower levels as seen in BUFKIT soundings. Of which, mean
mixed-layer winds are exceeding 40 kts in multiple locations. Max
wind gusts this afternoon largely 40-50 MPH across much of western
and north central NEB, highest in the eastern Panhandle. Otherwise,
cooler highs will prevail today compared to yesterday with cooler
air aloft and cold air advection occurring at low-levels. That said,
highs will be near seasonal normal values. Meanwhile, sky cover will
decrease through the morning hours with partly cloudy-mostly sunny
skies in place by late morning. Winds lessen tonight, albeit
conditions will remain breezy with winds still out of the northwest.
Cooler lows prevail tonight compared to this morning with lows
forecast around 30 to the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

A quiet long term is forecasted for north central Nebraska. A strong
upper level ridge will remain across the western US through mid week
keeping surface high pressure across the central Plains. This will
keep conditions dry and warm across the region through Wednesday. A
cold front will move across the region on Wednesday night. While no
precipitation is expected at this time with the front, cooler
temperatures will filter in behind the departing front for the end
of the week. Temperatures will drop from the mid 70s on Wednesday
into the low to mid 50s on Thursday and even colder into the mid 40s
by Friday. High pressure, and therefore dry conditions, will remain
over the central US through the weekend. Temperatures will also
return into the 50s for Saturday and the upper 50s to low 60s for
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

VFR to continue through the 18z TAF cycle. Post frontal winds will
continue to be strong through the afternoon today and remain
elevated overnight. Northwest wind gusts in excess of 40 kts will
be possible at all west central Nebraska terminals through at
least 00z, thereafter the gust potential decreases to 25 kts. The
latest guidance does point to an opportunity of marginal LLWS
overnight with gusts of 40-50kts at the top of the mixing level.
Otherwise the northwest winds will continue through the day on
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Windy conditions will prevail today with peak gusts up to 40-50 MPH
expected this afternoon, highest in the eastern Panhandle. However,
level and the overall duration of afternoon humidity remains modest
at this time. The driest conditions are about 20 percent with
respect to minimum RH across portions of far southwest NEB, eastern
Panhandle, and northwest NEB. At this time fire weather conditions
remain elevated. These conditions will continued to be monitored for
possible change based on humidity trends or fuel information.
Tomorrow, somewhat similar situation with breezy-windy conditions
prevail with the strongest winds over north central NEB. Afternoon
humidity remains a limiting factor as well on Tuesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Jacobs
FIRE WEATHER...ET



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