Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 061738
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1138 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGH INTO
EAST TEXAS. RIDGE BUILDING FROM DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN PLAINS
AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN NEAR TERM WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA FROM THE WEST. SNOW COVER OR LACK OF WILL INFLUENCE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS LIMITED SNOW COVER. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
HELP TO MIX WARMER PACIFIC AIR ALOFT...+5C AT 850MB. WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...SOME TEN
DEGREES F THAN YESTERDAY. OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH THE DEEPER
SNOW ONLY 3F TO 5F HIGHER. PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEST WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES TO BE MODERATED BY MIXING AND CLOUD COVER.
LOWS IN THE 20S AND DRY. UPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING. BEST LIFT KLBF WITH FROPA AROUND 06Z.
TIME HEIGHTS SUGGESTING VIRGA WITH PASSAGE AND MAYBE A COUPLE OF
FLAKES BUT HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW. 800MB-700MB FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE BUT LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LACKING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

MID RANGE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WIND. A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS LACKING...WITH
SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LOW
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE IS
RATHER LARGE. ECM...GFS...AND NAM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
850HPA WINDS OVER 50 KTS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT FAR NORTH CENTRAL...SO
MIXING IS MORE FAVORABLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 800HPA. FOR SURFACE
WINDS...USED A GENERAL BLEND BUT TRENDED TOWARD MAV AND ECM GUIDANCE
AS MET WAS TOO LOW. HOISTED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA 15Z TO 02Z SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS
GUSTS FALL SHORT...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WERE CLOSE TO WARNING
CRITERIA. WITH THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUMPED MIN
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO AS BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT COMPLETELY
DECOUPLE. DECREASED POPS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS BOYD AND HOLT COUNTIES.
ALL MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT FRONTOGENESIS...BUT LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY
AIR REMAINS AND LIFT IS WEAK TO NON EXISTENT.

LONG RANGE...TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...WESTERN NEBRASKA LIES IN NORTHWEST
FLOW THE ENTIRE WEEK AS A 500HPA RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND A TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EAST. THE PATTERN BECOMES LESS
AMPLIFIED LATE AS THE HUDSON BAY LOW SCOOTS SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. 850HPA WAA STRENGTHENS WITH TEMP AT KLBF RISING FROM 1C AT
00Z WED TO NEAR 10C AT 18Z. AIDED BY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND FEW CLOUDS...MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S ARE QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HIGHS REMAIN COOL NORTH CENTRAL
DUE TO TIGHT 850HPA GRADIENT. MILD TEMPS AGAIN THURSDAY WITH
CONTINUED WEST/NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FAIR CONDITIONS.
ONLY CONCERN WITH THESE HIGHS IS EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK...WHICH MAY
HOLD THEM BACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL KEEP WINDS TO THE WEST TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY OF 15KTS OR LESS.  HOWEVER
OVERNIGHT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH EXTREMELY GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN IT/S WAKE. THE
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 20KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z AT KVTN...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS POSSIBLE
BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY. THE CORIDOOR OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEARS TO
REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...BUT OTHER TERMINALS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS WILL STILL SEE GUST
POTENTIAL OF 30-35KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>037-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...JACOBS


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