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000
FXUS63 KLBF 242342
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
642 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

MAIN CONCERN WITH FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE WINDS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. STILL HITTING ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SEVERAL PLACES AND JUST
UNDER AT SEVERAL OTHERS SO WILL CONTINUE NPW THROUGH 00Z. TONIGHT
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SKIES CLEARING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. STILL DEEP MOISTURE
VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE WITH CLOUDS STUBBORN TO BURN OFF. DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE
WARM SECTOR ALONG THE DRY LINE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY HAVE PUSHED THE ENVELOPE WITH
HIGHER GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH CENTRAL TO AROUND 90
SOUTHWEST. SIMILAR PARAMETERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. WOULD AGAIN EXPECT LOW CLOUDS IN THE AM WITH A
QUICKER BURN OFF AND DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE THEN PROCEEDING NORTHEAST OVER
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS...THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE HIGH PLAINS LOOKS TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND INSTABILITY BUILT UP BY DIURNAL HEATING.

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING.
THE PRESENCE OF A 45KT LLJ WILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT AS IT VEERS OFF TO THE EAST. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DIFFLUENT THICKNESS FIELDS AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL HELP
MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY INTO AN MCS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY...WHEN STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S CREATE
FAIRLY STRONG INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.
A WARM FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO RUN NEAR I80...THEN WEST
INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREATS AT
THIS TIME LOOK TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AGAIN...LLJ
WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER DARK AND HELP MAINTAIN THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EAST.

STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MEMORIAL DAY AS WELL. LITTLE CHANGE IN
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A WARM FRONT AGAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME
POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH HIGHS TO RANGE FROM UPPER
70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.

THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE HIGH
PLAINS REMAINS IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE ZONAL. RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TSTMS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLE AFFECTING THE KLBF TAF SITE. STRATUS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE AREA. MVRF AND LOCAL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
AS STRATUS DEVELOPS. SFC WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO
20 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ005>010-026>029-
038.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...TAYLOR