Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 281153

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
553 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Sensible weather concerns over the next 24 hours are low. The main
weather highlights in the short term period include: patchy fog
early-mid morning today, cooler highs today than yesterday (about 5
to 12 degrees below seasonal normal values), and slight chances for
largely rain across southwest NEB into central NEB this afternoon
into the early evening. Latest satellite imagery does show
fog/stratus over a limited portion of north central NEB at the
present time that`s slowly expanding. Elsewhere, patchy fog/stratus
is thought to be present over portions of far northwest NEB. While
high clouds streaming northward overhead are making identification
difficult, web cams do confirm some visibility reduction is present
in the area. Mostly clear skies are present over southwest NEB at
the present time. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery shows the flow of a
broad long wave trough over the western US with zonal flow evident
over the eastern US. A few disturbances embedded within the flow are
tracking northeastward across the central US, one present over
northwest SD/southwest ND and another weaker one over the central
portion of the Middle Missouri Valley.

A surface cold front has moved through the region with a 1002 mb low
currently located over southeast NEB and its associated cold front
extending from southeast NEB southwest into central KS. Temperatures
aloft will cool as northwest flow aloft occurs and cold air
advection takes place at lower-levels that will result in cooler
highs than yesterday. Highs about 5-15 degrees cooler from northwest
NEB to southwest NEB. As the aforementioned surface low moves into
the Middle Mississippi Valley today, another surface low will
develop and deepen slightly this afternoon across OK
Panhandle/southern KS. North of the second surface low a zone of mid-
level frontogenesis is expected to develop over northwest KS into
central NEB along with increasing deformation. Current thinking is
the best chances for any precipitation lie outside the CWA with
slight chances present on the south and southeast periphery of the
CWA. Otherwise, clouds are expected to increase over this morning
with cloudy skies expected this afternoon. This will be followed by
decreasing clouds in the evening with clearing skies across much of
the area after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 351 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

A potent shortwave will cross the Dakotas and into the Great Lakes
region Wednesday. This will drive a Pacific cold front southeast
through the area. Northwest winds aloft at H850MB increase to around
35 KTS post frontal Wednesday morning, then slowly decrease during
the afternoon. Deep mixing will promote these stronger winds
reaching the surface in gusts, which are forecasted to be 30 to 35
MPH. A reinforcing front will cross the are Wednesday night,
keeping breezy northwest winds into Thursday.

A big warm up is expected Friday into the weekend as a near zonal
flow aloft advects warmer air east across the area. Highs all areas
look to climb into the 60s both Saturday and Sunday, with the
exception being northwest Nebraska, where it may remain in the mid
to upper 50s due to lingering snow cover. A quick moving shortwave
will cross the northern plains Sunday night into Monday, bringing a
Pacific cold front with it. This will cool highs back to the 50s


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 553 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

The fog satellite product currently shows fog/stratus over
portions of north central NEB. Patchy fog/stratus is thought to be
present over portions of northwest NEB, however, high clouds
streaming northward overhead are making identification difficult.
Elsewhere, partly cloudy skies are present due to high clouds.
Main aviation concerns are flight categories this morning and
winds. While conditions are expected to stay primarily VFR, may
see sub-VFR conditions due to fog/stratus early this morning in
portions of north central NEB, northwest NEB, and the northern

Fog/stratus is expected to dissipate/lift by mid morning.
Otherwise, cloud cover is expected to increase across western and
north central NEB through the morning with cloudy conditions
expected this afternoon. Modest northwest breezes today with gusts
15 to 20 mph, strongest in the eastern NEB Panhandle. Winds
expected to stay elevated overnight, strongest in southwest NEB
wherein winds will be up to 10-15 kts. Decreasing clouds this
evening with clearing skies after midnight across much of the




LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...ET is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.