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000
FXUS64 KMAF 212300
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
600 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Convection across the area will diminish over the next hour. VFR
conditions will prevail through most of tonight before low cigs
move in across the Permian Basin. Have included FM groups and
tempos for MVFR and IFR conditions everywhere except KCNM and
KFST. VFR conditions will return late Friday morning along the
gusty southeast winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 204 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Mid level flow across the desert SW continues to back in response to
an approaching trough. Meanwhile across W TX/SE NM se surface winds
have been increasing on the periphery of the mid level height falls.
Increased moisture is evident on 12Z MAF soundings with a 24hr
change in PW from .84" to 1.1". Still low level moisture is shallow
and even though the instability axis will be farther w today there
will be some CINH to overcome. 12Z NAM12 is downplaying convection
while HRRR does show diurnally driven initiation across PB from
around Girvin-ODO/MAF-Lamesa around 21Z, which we tend favor with
T/Td (M90s/N60). A few strong storms are again possible. By Fri PM
SW mid level flow will have pulled up a theta-e ridge axis which
will become increasingly rich. Showers/storms will light up within
this axis Fri, especially from GDP Mtns-Eddy Co Plains and they
will have a good chance to persist into the morning. Local heavy
rain will be possible there. Into the Sat the mid level
flow/theta-e ridge will have an especially long fetch while edging
farther e to encompass much more of the Trans Pecos/SE NM, which
will be the favored area for rain, again some heavy rain even thru
thru Sat night. Sunday with mid level moist plume now stretching
from the BB Region thru the Panhandle the PB have much a better
chance for rain. PWs within the moist axis will be +1 to +2
standard deviations and heavy rain will be possible, if not
favored and flash flood watches are likely to eventually be
warranted? The slow movement of the moist axis will favor the
interaction with a cold front that is expected to arrive late Mon
PM or early Tue AM. Even the ECMWF which typically doesn`t produce
much nocturnal precip is very wet Mon night/Tue AM. On Tue there
is the potential for very favorable positioning of the upper jet
to exacerbate heavy rain/flooding concerns. Of course hard to say
just where that precip will be maximized, but SE NM-SW parts of
the S Plains-PB are all in the mix. By Sunday the recent hot spell
will be a distant memory and high temps will be normal to below
normal into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  92  70  88 /  20   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       68  93  66  86 /  10  30  50  70
Dryden                         74  92  72  89 /  20   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  71  93  70  88 /  20  10  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 67  87  64  81 /  10  30  50  50
Hobbs                          66  90  64  84 /  10  10  20  50
Marfa                          60  90  61  85 /  20  20  10  50
Midland Intl Airport           72  92  70  88 /  20   0  10  20
Odessa                         71  92  70  88 /  20   0  10  30
Wink                           71  95  69  89 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/29