Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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719
FXUS64 KMAF 181723
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1123 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS are dissipating and VFR will prevail this PM. Light fog
is possible Thur AM at MAF/HOB but w/sw winds will attempt to
keep it at bay. Winds will increase quickly between 15Z-18Z Thur
and moreso into the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 515 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR conditions will continue at most locations through 18Z
before improving to VFR. Cannot rule out LIFR briefly forming at
MAF around sunrise but confidence not high enough to place in the
TAF at this time. A return of sub-VFR conditions is not expected
tonight.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The majority of the precip has shifted north of the CWA tonight
however a few patches of light drizzle may linger across some areas
over the next few hours. In addition, areas of patchy fog may
briefly lower visibility slightly but not expecting widespread dense
fog at this time as extensive low cloud cover remains in place. It
looks as though the clouds will be slow to clear through the morning
but the sun is expected to make an appearance by mid day and
temperatures will warm into the upper 50s to low 60s most locations.
The upper trough that brought us rain yesterday will finally shift
east by Thursday morning, followed by shortwave ridging before the
next upper system approaches the 4 Corners region Friday. Meanwhile,
a surface trough will develop lee of the Rockies and deepen over
the north TX Panhandle Thursday, inducing gusty west winds
across most areas. Wind speeds look to exceed High Wind criteria
across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains so will go ahead and
issue a High Wind Watch for these locations through the day
Thursday. Will continue to monitor the potential of a Wind
Advisory for portions of the SE NM and W TX plains. The warming
trend will continue into Thursday with highs warming well into the
60s and low 70s.

Friday will be another breezy day as the next upper system moves
through NM. As this system swings NE into the Central Plains Friday
night, the next upper trough will be hot on its heels, approaching
the region Saturday morning. Unfortunately, it looks to bring us
more windy conditions however some good news, it may also bring
our next shot of precip to portions the area. The trough axis will
shift east Sunday morning, dragging a cold front through the area
and resulting in a slightly cooler day. Winds will remain
elevated through Sunday afternoon before finally giving us a short
break through Monday...then gusty west winds return Tuesday as
yet another upper trough moves just north of the CWA. Worth
noting...winds across the Guadalupe Mountains could potentially
hit High Wind criteria during a good portion of the next 7 days!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  41  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       59  40  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  43  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  61  43  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  35  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          55  36  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          57  30  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         57  40  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           59  38  67  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$



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