Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 211118
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
613 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings will gradually clear out of the area over the next
couple of hours.  Winds will shift to the north starting later this
morning and will remain fairly light through the afternoon.  Winds
will shift to the east this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014/

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the exiting upper trough over OK, leaving West
Texas/SE NM under NW flow aloft.  At the sfc, a very diffuse dryline
extended from the Wrn Low Rolling Plains down into the Big Bend,
whereas further north, a cold front was approaching the area.
Buffer soundings put fropa at KMAF at around noon, but this should
have a negligible effect on afternoon highs.  All models develop
convection along the front east of the area later today, then
develop it westward along the front into the Lwr Trans Pecos by late
afternoon.

Tuesday, an upper-lvl ridge will build east into the region, but
quickly move on as the next trough builds into the PacNW.  As this
feature traverses the U.S.-Canadian border, flow aloft becomes SW,
and leeside troughing will induce westerly flow over the mountains,
all resulting in a weak dryline developing Wednesday afternoon.
Models differ slightly on where the dryline develops, but critical
fire wx conditions will be possible west of the dryline, and
convection along/east of the dryline.  This is too far out for a
Fire Wx Watch, so we`ve just outlooked it for
now.

Upper trough will pass thru the area Wednesday night, followed by SW
flow aloft as upper ridging develops over the Gulf Coast.  This will
result in well-abv normal temps Friday/Saturday.  Friday night,
another upper trough makes landfall on the west coast, and tilts
negatively into the upper Rockies Sunday.  This will result in
increasing westerly flow over the weekend, and more critical fire
wx.  Both the GFS and ECMWF hint at a dryline event Saturday night,
w/the GFS further west than the ECMWF.  For now, we`ll keep the
grids dry, and advertise increasing winds, especially
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  59  86  62  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              87  58  87  59  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                84  60  85  60  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  90  64  89  65  /  20  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  60  89  65  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  57  79  60  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   84  55  84  61  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   80  48  80  50  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    89  60  88  61  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  88  61  87  63  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    91  60  90  61  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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