Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 252008
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
208 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Very dry air is in place today in wake of yesterday`s front and
breezy/warm/dry conditions today are supported by a shrtwv trof
passing to the n. A weak front will follow this evening making for
cold dry Mon AM. Dry and warmer still on Mon PM as sw flow aloft
increases supporting near normal high temperatures. Mid-level height
falls commence Tue AM as an upper-level low moves INVOF srn Calif.
This will favor low-level moisture (albeit shallow) to return w with
a few brief AM -SHRA possible across the far ern CWFA. Low-level
flow will probably remain backed across the ern CWFA, but veered
and warmer with the low-level thermal ridge across the wrn areas
where it will be unseasonably warm/dry and probably breezy too.
Tue PM 7h winds of 30kts will kick winds up across the GDP/Davis
Mtns, but below high wind for now. Model solutions diverge some on
Wed, but either way it will be windy/dusty, possibly very windy
or even strong winds? Timing of passing trough is the issue with
GFS earlier than ECMWF and even the more latent NAM12. 85h winds
are stout 50kts with 100kt 5h jet overhead or very near MAFs CWFA
around 18Z Wed. As the trough approaches from the w it will have
some mid-level moisture/lift so possibly some virga to enhance
the winds? MEXMOS has been persistent showing strong wind and
widespread advisory level winds seem likely and high wind warnings
are possible ATTP. It will be cooler Wed per heights falls/thermal
ridge to the e. Cooler Thur too, but temps rebound quickly
turning warmer Fri-Sun.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fuels continue to undergo rapid drying (see ERC plot from
yesterday) and this will continue through Tue PM. Mostly elevated
fire will persist each day through Tue, although there could be
critical conditions worthy of a RFW across Trans Pecos/SE NM Tue
PM? On Wed more critical fire wx is likely across parts of PB and
Trans Pecos with RFTI as high as 6, possibly a 7? It does look
especially dry in the Big Bend/Lower Trans Pecos area and pretty
windy there too. The pattern for Wed has some elements that are
verging of the possibility a high impact fire wx type day, but
model inconsistency just adds too much uncertainty to commit ATTP,
but we`re watching trends closely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     29  69  47  77 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       27  65  35  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         38  69  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  33  70  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 32  60  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          24  64  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          25  66  35  74 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           27  68  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         28  67  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           27  68  44  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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