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000
FXUS64 KMAF 291123
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
615 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
out of the south to southeast with some possible gusts this afternoon.
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms through the period, but
probabilities remain low so left out of TAFS for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Tstms have moved into the far NW CWFA and are slowly
moving/developing to the e-se, but looks like intensity is steady
or slowly weakening. We made some adjustment to short term PoPs
and wx grids to account for increased rain chances this morning
in far NW CWFA. Otherwise model consensus for today is that the
subtropical ridge will be centered INVOF srn AZ leaving much of
the CWFA in NW flow aloft. Meanwhile radar last showed surface
boundary nearing the Pecos River and still pushing s. There is
some hint in the MSLP/surface wind fields for this PM that a
boundary will be oriented NW-SE across the far nrn CWFA or just to
the n of it. SB LI fields this PM indicate best instability will
be from the Davis Mtns w-nw and then across the far nw-n CWFA.
This is what models were depicting several days ago and we will
orient low order PoPs as such btwn 18Z-06Z. Wed all models agree
it will be hot and that n of the cold front it will be much more
unstable. GFS has come around to the ECMWF`s solution from a few
days ago with an earlier FROPA. Most areas s of I-20 will remain
stable. Models agree fairly well that in evening as front moves
into the PB the chance of SHRA/TSRA will increase, which is
generally what we have in the current forecast and will make only
minor changes. There`s a good chance that this early arrival of
front will result in diminished chance of precip Thur PM, especially
n of I-20. As such will need to re-orient PoPs in grids for Thur
PM. The good news is Thur will be much cooler, approximately 5-10
below normal n of I-20. Still we will need to watch in the NW flow
aloft Thur night/early Fri AM for possibility of storms across
w-nw. Moist upslope flow will favor isold/slght chc PoPs in the
mtns Fri/Sat PM. Sun/Mon looks dry with monsoonal moisture
focusing across wrn NM/AZ. 5h heights remain low too and MEX
guidance optimistically keep lows in the mid to upper 60s Thur-
Tue.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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