Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 270853

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
353 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017


The start of Memorial Day Weekend will be a hot one, though a
strong cold front tonight will bring much cooler temperatures to
the area. Thunderstorm chances will also return on Sunday and
Monday, becoming more widespread Tuesday onward. Below normal
temperatures are expected from Sunday through the end of next

Another unseasonably hot day is on tap across Southeast New Mexico
and West Texas today. Given 850mb temperatures similar to, or even
slightly warmer than yesterday, expect highs into the mid 90s and
lower 100s once again for most. Also, there look to be less high
clouds across the region today, thus would not be surprised if a
few locations are a degree or two warmer than on Friday. The only
locations that look to escape the hot temperatures today are
across higher terrain, where middle to upper 80s are expected this
afternoon. Breezy west to southwest downslope winds will develop
this afternoon, and given the continued hot and dry pattern,
critical fire weather conditions are once again expected to
develop across Southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, and
most of Culberson county. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for
these areas, please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for
additional details.

Overnight tonight, a retreating dryline looks to edge into
southeastern portions of the forecast area, resulting in a chance
of thunderstorms, mainly across the Lower Trans Pecos into
eastern portions of the Big Bend Area. The primary focus continues
to be on a strong cold front that will make its way south into
the area overnight tonight. The NAM is about 3 hours faster with
the front than the GFS, though the overall consensus is that the
front will be south of the Pecos River by late morning, and to the
Rio Grande by late Sunday afternoon. Given the timing of the
front, the best rain chances on Sunday look to be focused
primarily along and west of the Pecos River, with drier air
settling in across the Permian Basin and southeastern New Mexico.
Ahead of the front, warm temperatures as well as continued
westerly to southwesterly flow aloft are expected to result in
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, a few of
which may become strong. The big story with the front will be much
cooler temperatures, with highs on Sunday expected to be in the
lower to middle 80s for most of the area, with 90s confined to the
Rio Grande Valley. Breezy northeasterly winds are also expected
in the wake of the front, with winds becoming gusty at times,
particularly across the Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico,
though these winds will diminish by Sunday night.

Persistent easterly to southeasterly flow behind the front will
maintain ample moisture across the area well into next week, with
widespread cloudcover expected to keep temperatures below normal
each afternoon. Highs through next Thursday look to generally be
in the upper 70s and 80s, with lows each night in the 50s and 60s.
A series of disturbances in the flow aloft will keep
rain/thunderstorm chances in the forecast each day next week as
well, though the best opportunity for widespread precipitation
looks to be Tuesday and Wednesday, as an inverted trough takes
shape across the Desert Southwest and moves toward the area. While
guidance differs on the evolution of this feature, it appears the
overall trend will be for rain chances to gradually shift
eastward by Friday, with slightly warmer, but still below normal
temperatures expected for the end of next week.



Fire wx concerns continue to be heightened today as the drying and
heat continue to wear on. Southeast New Mexico and Culberson
County will again be the favored areas for critical conditions
with high to very high fire danger. ERCs have rose to around the
75th percentile. The strongest west winds of 15-25 mph in the
plains, 25-35 mph in the GDP Mtns will occur between 2 and 6 PM
MDT. A cold front Sunday AM will bring an end to the critical fire
wx, and the chance of rain will increase into mid week.


Big Spring                    102  66  83  62 /   0  10  20  20
Carlsbad                       98  59  84  58 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                        100  73  88  67 /  10  30  40  50
Fort Stockton                  99  66  81  63 /  10  20  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 89  57  76  56 /   0   0  10  20
Hobbs                          94  57  81  54 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                          92  57  80  56 /   0  10  20  30
Midland Intl Airport          100  63  83  60 /   0  10  20  20
Odessa                        100  64  82  60 /   0  10  10  20
Wink                          101  61  86  61 /   0  10  10  20


NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.



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