Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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186
FXUS64 KMOB 081720
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1120 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.

&&

.UPDATE...Current package on track. Cool northerly flow combined with
increasing mid/upper level cloud cover is helping to keep temps well
below seasonal today. No updates planned attm.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...A passing upper disturbance today is bringing
mid/upper level clouds to the FA today. Am expecting CIGS/VISBYS to
state at VFR levels through the forecast. An upper system moving east
across the northern half of the CONUS today attm will push a re-
enforcing front across the area tonight. Am expecting the northerly
flow to continue through the forecast.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 555 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...MVFR ceilings can be expected through the morning
hours becoming VFR in the afternoon. Gusty northerly winds will
develop later this morning and continue through the day. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 456 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...A trough digging across
the Great Lakes into the eastern seaboard will send the first Arctic
front of the season through the area this morning. In the wake of
this front a much colder and drier airmass will move into the area.
Skies will likely be cloudy through much of the day with some breaks
developing this afternoon and evening. A slight chance of showers is
possible early this morning ahead of the front but any rainfall
amounts will remain very light and most areas will remain dry.
Otherwise, temps will reach their peak during the late morning hours
and hold steady or fall during the afternoon as strong cold air
advection take hold. Gusty northerly winds of 15 to 20 mph will
develop during late morning and continue through the afternoon.
Coastal areas may see higher gusts and a wind advisory may be
required later today. Skies will clear overnight, however winds will
stay up as the Arctic highs remain to our northwest. This keep lows
from getting as low as they could in this type of airmass. Lows will
fall into the upper 20s and low 30s inland to mid and upper 30s along
the coast. Wind chills in the low to mid 20s are possible by Friday
morning across interior sections of the area. /13

SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...A dry generally zonal
flow pattern aloft will prevail across the central Gulf coast region
Friday through Saturday night, while cold surface high pressure
continues to shift east from the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley
Friday and Friday night to the Eastern Seaboard by Saturday
afternoon. Clearing skies are expected Friday, with no precipitation
expected through this period. Cold advection/northerly surface flow
associated with the building surface ridge will result in the coldest
temperatures so far this autumn season Friday and Friday night. Highs
Friday are only forecast to range from the mid to upper 40s over
inland portions of the area to the lower 50s near the coast. Clear
skies, continued cold advection and a very dry surface airmass will
result in a night of sub-freezing temperatures across just about all
of the forecast area. Lows Friday night could range from as low as
23-27 generally along and north of Interstate 10, with upper 20s to
lower 30s looking probable all the way to the immediate coast. Just
about all of the coastal zones should experience a freeze (with the
possible exception of places like Dauphin Island and Destin that may
only reach 34 or 35), and since coastal portions of the forecast
area have not yet experienced a widespread first freeze of the
season, we have issued a Freeze Watch for coastal Mobile, Baldwin,
Escambia, Santa Rosa and Okaloosa counties late Friday night and
early Saturday morning. Temperatures Saturday should moderate a bit
with highs in the lower to mid 50s. Lows Saturday night should also
trend a little warmer with lows in the lower to mid 30s inland and
in the upper 30s to mid 40s near the coast. /21

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Zonal flow aloft looks to
continue Sunday, while surface high pressure shifts into the western
Atlantic Ocean. Easterly to southeasterly surface flow will develop,
bringing a gradual return of low level moisture back into the region.
The next shortwave trough will move across the Mississippi and
Tennessee Valley region late Sunday into Monday, while the next
associated cold front approaches our area from the west. Lift ahead
of these features will bring a chance of rain showers to the area
Sunday night into Monday. Medium range guidance has less agreement on
the timing of yet another and associated cold front that could impact
the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. There is still enough of a
signal for deep layer moisture and lift to keep a low chance of rain
showers in the forecast Tuesday into Wednesday, but there could be
also enough instability for thunderstorms during this time frame.
Confidence was low enough to keep the thunder mention out for now. A
reinforcing colder airmass could arrive by the middle of next week
following the frontal passage. /21

MARINE...Strong northerly winds and building seas will develop
today in the wake of a strong cold front moving south across the
marine area. The strong offshore flow will continue through Friday
night as strong high pressure remains to the north. Winds and seas
decrease over the weekend as high pressure builds across the northern
Gulf and moves east. A southerly flow develops late in the weekend
into early next week as high pressure moves east of the area. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ630>635.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CST Saturday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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