Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 251144 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
544 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...VFR conditions through 26.18z. Winds will be
mostly variable 5 knots or less through this evening then
shifting mostly north at 5 to 7 knots through 26.18z. 32/ee

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 425 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday night/...Latest satellite loops
show increasing clouds from the north and northwest this morning
associated with the first of a series of weak short wave troughs
moving from the central plains states to the lower MS River valley
and northern gulf states over the weekend and into early next
week. With limited return flow near surface ahead of the next
short wave energy approaching from the west expect mostly mid to
high clouds moving across most areas of the forecast area today
with the better cloud cover generally occurring over the northern
half of the forecast area this morning through early to mid
afternoon, then slowly eroding from the west to east late this
afternoon and tonight. Near the surface high pressure continues to
stretch north and east from the central and northern gulf to the
north central gulf states this morning resulting in light winds
generally from the west and northwest combined with good
radiational cooling near the surface leading to surface temps
running a degree or two below predicted lows already with some
patchy fog also noted to the east, generally where the better low
level moisture has advected inland earlier due to a light onshore
flow near the immediate coast late in the day on Fri. Expect this
trend to continue this morning followed by a mix of clouds and sun
for most areas with mild daytime temps ahead of an approaching
cold front that is expected to begin moving across the region late
this evening and overnight. Still no rain is expected with this
pattern although there is some decent forcing aloft ahead and
along the front. Will continue to monitor the fog this morning
though believe it will remain patchy with some areas possibly
lowering to 1/4 to 1/2 mile at times...especially east of the I-65
corridor.

High temps will be 4 to 5 degrees above seasonal averages today for
most areas, ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows tonight
will fall to near seasonal averages in the wake of the weak cold
front ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s for inland areas
generally north of the i-10 corridor and the mid 40s to near 50
closer to the coast. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Sunday Through Monday night/...A dry northwest flow
pattern aloft will develop across the central Gulf Coast region on
Sunday in the wake of a departing shortwave trough. Dry northerly
surface flow will also prevail across our forecast area Sunday as
a ridge of high pressure builds over the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valley regions. Mostly sunny skies and mild conditions
will continue into Sunday afternoon with high temperatures ranging
from the mid 60s over interior areas and in the upper 60s to
around 70 over southern portions of the region. Continued mostly
clear skies, light northerly winds, and a dry surface airmass will
promote another chilly night across the area Sunday night with
lows in the mid 30s to around 40 over much of the region, except
for readings in the mid to upper 40s near the immediate coast and
beaches.

The surface ridge of high pressure will gradually shift eastward
and will become positioned from the western Atlantic and eastern
seaboard to the central Gulf Coast by Monday night. Surface winds
will subsequently transition to light northeasterly to easterly
Monday into Monday night. A deep dry airmass holds in place into
Monday night despite another shortwave trough axis translating
over our region, so will maintain the mostly clear and dry
forecast. Highs Monday will be slightly cooler and will range from
the mid to upper 60s over most locations. Another cool night is
expected Monday night with lows in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees
inland and in the mid 40s to around 50 near the immediate coast
and the beaches. /21

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...No significant changes were
made to the long term portion of the forecast. The next upper
level low located in the vicinity of the Texas Panhandle Tuesday
afternoon is forecast to open into a shortwave trough and
translate to the Lower Mississippi Valley by late Wednesday
afternoon and across Alabama and Georgia Wednesday night into
Thursday. The dry pattern continues across our area Tuesday into
Tuesday night with zonal to perhaps shortwave ridging aloft over
our region well in advance of the upper low/trough. Deep layer
moisture may increase over northwestern portions of the region
late Wednesday as the upper trough approaches, and will have an
associated slight chance of rain showers over interior southeast
Mississippi and southwest Alabama Wednesday night. There are still
some model inconsistencies on the depth, timing, and available
moisture with the upper trough passage, but the GFS and ECMWF
indicate that enough moisture and lift may be available to produce
a few showers over the area Thursday into Thursday evening,
before the trough departs to the east of the region. The prospects
for meaningful rain are quite low, so will only have POPs about
20% at best during this time frame. Slightly warmer temperatures
return Tuesday through Thursday. The next frontal passage looks to
bring a reinforcing shot of cool and dry air for Friday. /21

MARINE...Surface high pressure along the northern gulf coast
today will be reinforced late this evening and overnight in the
wake of a cold front that begins to move across the region late
this evening, moving south of the marine area by early Sun
morning. A moderate offshore flow is expected in the wake of the
front on Sun, building slightly late Sun night into early Mon,
followed by a light to occasionally moderate easterly flow through
midweek ahead of another moderate cold front that is expected to
move across the marine area late Thu night into Fri. No rain is
expected through the week with seas building to 3 to 4 feet Sun
and late Sun night then ranging from 1 to 3 feet through Thu
afternoon. 32/ee

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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