Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 290834

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
334 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...Overnight into tonight, TS
Bonnie moves inland over the Carolinas, weakening as a shortwave
trough moves east over the Southeastern states and begins to disrupt
it. This disorganizes and begins to shift west a surface ridge that
has been over the northern Gulf coast. With the more organized
onshore flow weakening and becoming a lighter offshore flow today
into tonight, am expecting isolated to low end scattered shra/tsra to
develop this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops and moves inland
this afternoon. Best convergence is expected over the western and
central Florida panhandle, so am expecting initial development
there, though how things spread from there will depend upon how the
outflow boundaries spread. With an upper ridge remaining dominant
over the eastern seaboard, am expecting temps around to a bit
above seasonal today. For tonight, guidance is advertising drier
air moving over the area from the north. With better radiational
cooling from the decreasing moisture levels along with less cloud
cover streaming in from the west, have went around to a bit below
seasonal for tonight`s lows. /16

.SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/...Broad upper ridging over
much of the south central states and lower Mississippi river valley
builds into the area through the period as Bonnie is expected to be
located near coastal South Carolina and move northward away from the
region. A weak surface trof extending from Bonnie to across the
central portion of the forecast area becomes somewhat better defined
through Tuesday, which provides for a modest region of low level
convergence before the weak trof dissipates Tuesday night. Have
continued with slight chance pops developing each afternoon for most
of the area. Highs will be mostly in the lower 90s each day except
for upper 80s near the coast. Lows Monday night will be in the mid to
upper 60s, with lower 70s near the coast, then lows Tuesday night
will be near 70 inland with lower 70s near the coast. /29

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...An upper trof advances
across the central states and begins to enter the eastern states
towards the end of the period. A surface ridge near the northern Gulf
will maintain a southerly flow over the area through Thursday while a
surface low well to the north, associated with the upper trof, brings
a trailing cold front to near the lower Mississippi river valley
before stalling.  The frontal boundary is expected to remain just
west of the area on Friday, move slowly into the area Friday night
and meander over the area through Saturday. Will continue with mainly slight
chance pops for Wednesday and Thursday, then pops increase to good
chance for much of the area by Saturday. Highs on Wednesday will
range from the lower 90s inland to the upper 80s closer to the coast,
then highs gradually moderate through Saturday to mostly mid 80s.
Lows Wednesday night will be near 70 inland with the lower 70s near
the coast, the trend gradually cooler through the period with lows
Saturday night in the mid 60s inland and near 70 at the coast. /29


.MARINE...With TD Bonnie disrupting the surface ridge that has been
stretching west over the northern Gulf coast, the more organized
onshore flow weakens. With the surface high shifting and developing
over the lower Mississippi River Valley the beginning of the coming
week, the light offshore flow that develops today into tonight
remains over the area into mid week. From there, the surface ridge
shifts east, to over the north-central and northeastern Gulf as
Bonnie moves off, and by the end of the week, the surface ridge re-
develops over the northern Gulf coast, bringing a more organized
onshore flow back to the area for the coming weekend. /16


Mobile      89  68  91  69 /  20  10  20  10
Pensacola   89  70  91  73 /  20  10  20  10
Destin      86  72  87  74 /  20  10  20  10
Evergreen   90  66  94  66 /  20  10  20  10
Waynesboro  90  67  93  67 /  20  10  20  10
Camden      90  67  92  67 /  20  10  20  10
Crestview   90  67  94  66 /  30  10  20  10


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