Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 042046
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
340 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...A RIDGE-TROUGH
PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH SITUATED
OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ABOUT 300 MILES OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO SHIFT FURTHER EASTWARD. UPPER DISTURBANCES BETWEEN THE
UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN INTACT
WHILE SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.0
INCHES...OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES NEAR 2500 J/KG...SO KEPT LIKLEY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ONGOING CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN ARE THE PRIMARILY THREATS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER
PAST MIDNIGHT...AND THEN DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH A CHANCE REMAINING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE NORTH OF I-10...WHILE IT REMAINS SCATTERED ALONG THE COAST.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AREAS WITH
MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...MAINTAINING THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RETURN RAIN CHANCES BACK TO A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN AND WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK
INTO THE LOW AND MID 90S. AS A RESULT...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE
BACK TO AROUND 100 BY MID WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MUGGY
WITH LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
04.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND
BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LOCALIZED IN AND NEAR CONVECTION FROM
04.23Z THROUGH 05.03Z...WITH A TEMPO GROUP NOW ADDED FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE CONVECTION LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT IT WILL LAST THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND EVEN PAST MIDNIGHT ALONG THE ENTIRE
NORTHERN GULF REGION...SO MAY NEED TO ADD ADDITIONAL TEMPO OR PROB30
GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL...WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING THUNDERSTORMS. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR STORMS
THAT DEVELOP...BUT LOW SEAS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  87  72  88  73 /  70  60  30  30  10
PENSACOLA   75  87  74  86  74 /  60  50  30  40  20
DESTIN      77  86  76  84  75 /  60  50  30  40  20
EVERGREEN   71  86  70  88  70 /  70  60  40  40  20
WAYNESBORO  71  87  70  89  71 /  70  60  40  40  20
CAMDEN      71  85  70  87  70 /  70  70  40  40  20
CRESTVIEW   73  87  71  89  70 /  60  60  40  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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