Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 250455

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


06Z issuance...VFR conditions initially with a patchy MVFR ceiling
forming over the flying area during the early morning hours. Ceiling
is expected to lift to VFR by mid morning to early afternoon. Shower
and thunderstorm activity will be possible near the coast
overnight...and spread inland by afternoon. Light and variable winds
overnight will become southeasterly during the morning at around 10
knots and gusty at times during the afternoon. /08


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 656 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

00Z issuance...Isolated thunderstorms over SW Alabama and scattered
over SE Mississippi should dissipate in the next couple hours. VFR
conditions will then prevail across the flying area through mid
morning. By mid morning developing cumulus cloud fields will create
patchy MVFR conditions through the afternoon with the potential for
IFR in and around thunderstorm activity. Showers and thunderstorms
should once again develop along the coast in the morning and
gradually spread inland during the day. /08

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...An upper ridge extending
eastward from the four corners region over the mid atlantic states
and western Atlantic will divide over the Mississippi River region
as an upper low pressure area over the southern Florida peninsula
moves east. The upper low is expected to be over the central Gulf
of Mexico by the end of the near term, with an inverted upper
trough extending northward over the southern Mississippi River
states. Meanwhile a surface ridge will remain fixed across the
western Atlantic and eastern Gulf of Mexico keeping a light southerly
wind flow and low level moisture in place across the region.

The isolated to low-end scattered coverage of showers and
thunderstorms forming along the sea-breeze this afternoon will
continue to migrate northward through the early evening hours.
Maintain isolated convection across the entire forecast area through
10 pm followed by dry conditions through much of the night, with the
exception of isolated coverage impinging along the coast again late
tonight. Further development of scattered showers and thunderstorms
will again occur along the coast near a developing seabreeze and
expand northward throughout the day Monday.

Low temperatures tonight will range from 72 to 77 degrees. High
temperatures Monday will range from 90 to 95 degrees inland areas
with upper 80s at the beaches. Heat indices Monday will range from
100 to 105 degrees. /22

SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...The upper low
will open up into an inverted trof over the northern Gulf on Tuesday
as it moves westward. This will enhance the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms mainly across the southern half of the area on Tuesday.
Higher than normal rain chances continue on Wednesday as the trof
moves westward. The additional clouds and associated rain will keep
temps in the upper 80s to around 90. Lows will range from the low to
mid 70s inland to upper 70s to near 80 along the coast. /13

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...Surface and upper level
ridging will rebuild over the area through the end of the week. This
will return the Gulf coast to a more typical summertime pattern. As
rain coverage decreases, temps will increase back into the low to
mid 90s. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be
expected each afternoon. /13

MARINE...Surface high pressure extending from the western
Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will persist through the week. This
will result in a light to occasional moderate onshore wind flow with
seas near 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will
occur each day this week. /22


.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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