Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 200411 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1111 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


06Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours,
except for MVFR conditions in patchy fog late tonight and MVFR
conditions in isolated to scattered showers and storms that
develop late Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours. Light
winds continue through the period. /29


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...Have updated to remove pops for most of the area for the
remainder of the night except for maintained small pops over
interior south central Alabama and a small part of interior
southwest Alabama where a few lingering showers/storms will occur.
Made other minor adjustments. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 615 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

00Z issuance...A few showers and/or storms with MVFR conditions will
linger into the evening hours with some patches of fog with MVFR
conditions occurring late tonight. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms redevelop late Wednesday morning into the afternoon
hours. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail with light winds
continuing through the period. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will decrease in coverage this evening as the
boundary layer cools with the loss of daytime heating. Patchy fog
will also develop late tonight. Lows tonight will fall into the
low 70s inland to mid 70s along the coast. Increasing deep layer
moisture combined with an approaching upper shortwave will lead to
more scattered showers and thunderstorms developing Wednesday
afternoon and continuing into the early evening. Locally heavy
rain and frequent lightning will be the main threats. Gusty winds
will be possible in any of the strong storms that develop. Outside
of the cooling effects from showers and storms, hot and muggy
conditions continue with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. /13

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...An upper
level ridge extending from the east Texas to the Great Lakes will
remain nearly stationary through the near term, while a weak upper
level trough or area of low pressure remains over the southeast
states and northern Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge across the
eastern conus and Gulf of Mexico will also remain intact as
Hurricane Jose stalls off the coast of New England coast. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
short term, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours
during maximum instability. Patchy fog should form again each
night across the forecast area after midnight into the early
morning hours.

Low temperatures both nights will be around 70 degrees inland
areas, with low 70s along the immediate coastal sections. High
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be 2 to 4 degrees above
normal inland areas, ranging from 88 to 92 degrees, with mid 80s
along the immediate coastal sections. /22

LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...An upper level trough over
the western conus will continue to shift eastward, moving east of
the Rocky Mountains early next week. To the east, Hurricane Maria
is progged to shift northward passing well east of the east
Florida coast, and possibly merge with the remnants of Jose over
the western Atlantic off the northeast U.S. coast. The upper low
will remain near the north central gulf region over the weekend
and early next week, though showing little impact to rain chances
over the north central gulf region attm. Near the surface high
pressure will become reinforced from the eastern Great Lakes to
the north central gulf states late in the period. Temperatures
will be near seasonal averages, ranging from the mid to upper 80s
during the day, and the upper 60s to lower 70s each night through
early Sun, then slightly cooler Sun night into early Mon morning.

MARINE...High pressure centered over the marine area today
through early Wednesday will shift to just north of the marine
area by Thursday and continue relatively unchanged through the end
of the period. Light westerly winds tonight and Wednesday,
gradually becoming more easterly and increasing slightly late
week and into the weekend. Small seas increasing slightly by the
weekend. /13




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