Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 220413 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1113 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.AVIATION (06Z ISSUANCE)...SIMILAR THINKING AS BEFORE EXCEPT HAVE
CONTINUED WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR BFM FOR A BROKEN MVFR CEILING NEAR
1500 FT WHICH HAS BEEN OCCURRING ON AND OFF FOR SEVERAL HOURS.  HAVE
ALSO ADDED A TEMPO GROUP AT MOB FROM 06-09Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
LIGHT FOG.  OTHERWISE...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH PREVAILING LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING BY 09Z WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 600-900 FT.  A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A TEMPO GROUP FROM 09-13Z FOR IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/CEILING FROM 600-1200 FT AT THE TAF SITES.
HAVE BEEN MONITORING UPSTREAM CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA AND
USING LOCAL WRF AND WRF FROM NSSL/SPC...MODEL GFS/RUC SOUNDINGS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL TIMING TOOLS...WILL HAVE VCSH AT 14Z FOR MOB/BFM THEN
VCTS BY 16Z. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  86  68  88  67 /  05  20  30  30  10
PENSACOLA   69  86  71  85  69 /  05  10  20  30  10
DESTIN      69  82  72  80  71 /  05  10  20  30  10
EVERGREEN   64  91  66  89  65 /  05  20  40  30  10
WAYNESBORO  65  86  64  88  63 /  20  40  30  20  10
CAMDEN      64  89  64  88  63 /  10  30  40  20  10
CRESTVIEW   63  91  67  89  67 /  05  10  30  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
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