Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 020219 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
919 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...WILL UPDATE TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TO MAINLY
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATE OUT SOON. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM....MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF-SHEAR AXIS NOTED YESTERDAY WEST
OF THE FCST...STILL EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN INTO
TEXAS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A FEW SHORTWAVES NOTED ALONG THE
AXIS...BUT DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES REMAINS WEST OF
THE FCST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) ALL SEEM TO
INITIALIZE FAIRLY WELL AGAIN TODAY WITH REGARD TO THE FEATURES
MENTIONED ABOVE. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH LATE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA
OR TROF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF (REMNANTS OF ERIKA) WILL
LINGER...AND POSSIBLE WEAKEN EVEN MORE...STILL OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OR ALONG THE NORTH FLORIDA GULF COAST. WHILE THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER TROF WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR INCREASED MIDLEVEL MOISTURE..THE SFC
RIDGING POKING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA. WITH THE
CONTINUED LACK OF ANY LARGER SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS...EXPECT LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOWER OR STORM COULD BE POSSIBLE JUST INLAND
FROM THE COAST BOTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME MORE LIGHT FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...BUT NEAR THE COAST BECOMING MORE
LIGHT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND ONSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S COASTAL. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S COASTAL AND MID 90S
INTERIOR. 12/DS

LONG TERM...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF STRETCHING FROM THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TO THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND FILL
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A BROAD CUT OFF MID LEVEL LOW
CENTERED ALONG THE GA/SC COAST ON SAT...THEN DRIFTING WEST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOW
DEEPER MOISTURE LATER IN THE WEEK WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO 1.4 TO 1.9
INCHES COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY OR CAPE IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICTS BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIP FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...OR MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DUE TO
THE WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY. WITH THIS PATTERN THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MOSTLY AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH BETTER CLOUDS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A TAD COOLER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...THEN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NIGHT
TIME LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MARINE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A PRIMARILY LIGHT
WINDFLOW. A BROAD WEAK LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF (THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA) WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH NO REAL CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ATTM.
MEANWHILE A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY...WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA.
THIS WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WIND FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MOST OF
THE FCST PERIOD (ALTHOUGH WITH A MORE OFFSHORE COMPONENT LATE NIGHTS
AND EARLY MORNING AND ONSHORE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS). LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER THE MARINE AREA TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  93  74  92  74 /  05  20  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   75  92  76  90  76 /  10  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  88  78  90  78 /  10  20  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   71  95  72  92  73 /  05  20  10  30  20
WAYNESBORO  71  95  73  94  72 /  10  20  05  30  20
CAMDEN      71  92  72  93  73 /  05  20  05  30  20
CRESTVIEW   73  93  73  92  73 /  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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