Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 041118 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
618 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Above average confidence in the short term due to good model
agreement.

A lobe of upper level energy swinging around the southwest flank of
a closed H5 low over the Great Lakes region will push a cold front
across the region this morning. With adequate surface based
instability, decent mid level lapse rates, and deep layer moisture,
showers and thunderstorms are expected over the eastern half to two
thirds of our CWA this morning. With the freezing level being so
low combined with favorable lapse rates, small hail will be
possible in a few of the stronger showers/thunderstorms.

The upper low is forecast to drop south southeastward along the
IN/OH border this afternoon so small chances for showers and
thunderstorms are possible over the eastern third of our CWA.
Precipitation chances will end by late afternoon as the upper low
slips off to the southeast of the region.

Beyond that rising heights aloft and high pressure at the surface
should keep the region dry with slowly moderating temperatures.
Temperatures are expected to warm back to near normal by the end of
the short term period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Confidence in the long term is slowly increasing as forecast models
deliver an increasingly consistent message on the evolution of the
overall pattern through the first half of next week.

Starting with Saturday, an upper level ridge will be centered over
the nation`s mid section with two cut-off lows flanking the ridge
over the southwestern U.S. and Mid Atlantic Coast. This blocky type
pattern will modify over the weekend as the East Coast low merges
with a developing low over southeastern Canada. This acts to keep
the immediate forecast area on the northwest flow side of the ridge,
which encourages a backdoor type cold front into the area Saturday
night and Sunday. Models differ somewhat over whether the front
stalls across the area or eventually lifts back to the north as a
warm front Sunday night. By Monday and Monday night, energy from the
western U.S. low begins to stream eastward across the Plains into
the Mississippi Valley.

As a result, the chance for showers and thunderstorms begins across
the Interstate 64 corridor as early as Saturday afternoon and
evening with the approach of the front. The chance lingers through
the rest of the weekend across mainly southwest Indiana, southern
Illinois, and western Kentucky along and north of the stalled front.
Better shower and thunderstorm chances refocus into the western half
of the area on Monday and then increase across the entire region
Monday night and Tuesday as the western energy draws closer. Despite
the prolonged period of potentially wet weather, more widespread
precipitation should hold off until the Tuesday or Wednesday time
frame.

Used a blend of model guidance for temperatures through the period.
Readings will generally be near or just above seasonal norms. Highs
are forecast to range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lows in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are possible today with the passage of
a cold front. With the exception of MVFR vsbys in TSRA at
KEVV/KOWB this morning, VFR conditions will prevail at all sites
through the period. Westerly winds AOB 10 mph early will veer
around to the northwest behind the front with speeds of 10 to 20
mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM...RJP



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