Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 160835
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
235 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 224 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Ongoing Winter Storm with impressive snowfall accumulations across
the area will have to be extended this morning. The main thing we
see is top down saturation on the soundings continues especially
in the dendritic growth zone, and with nearly 20 to 1 ratios, just
a little qpf goes a long way after multiple hours of snowfall.
Expect another inchor two in our east and southeast, so based on
radar trends, we`ll have to linger the warning there thru mid
morning. This was collaborated and will align well with our
neighbors.

In addition, the wind/arctic air mass will be producing wind
chills to Advisory criteria or very near it, over all but the
farthest southeastern counties. As a result, we will fill in the
hole, so to speak, and expand the Advisory southward. This was
collaborated and will likewise align better with our neighbors.

Another bone chilling night is on tap tonight, but by then surface
High pressure has extended its incoming grip and winds have begun
to relax. We did undercut guidance a little on temps, particularly
Lows, from the blended nos.

Temps do not actually rise above freezing again until Thursday.
Thursday will also offer the best chance/most sunshine, with the
surface High pressure anchored across the lower Mississippi river
valley, so the combined effect should help improve our
treacherous road conditions on that day in particular.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 224 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Forecast confidence remains higher than average through much of the
long term owing to continued good agreement among forecast models.

A moderating trend will carry over into the weekend as southerly
flow strengthens between high pressure over the Southeast and
developing low pressure in the lee of the Rockies. In the upper
levels, a relatively flat flow pattern on Friday will become strong
southwesterly over the weekend in response to an approaching storm
system over the Plains. High temperatures should make 40 degrees on
Friday, then above 50 Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures may even
approach 60 by Sunday.

With an increase in low level moisture amidst a large scale warm
advection pattern, clouds should be plentiful over the weekend.
Substantial rain is not expected until Sunday, but forecast
soundings suggest the potential for some very light rain or even
drizzle by Saturday night. Rain chances peak Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night as large scale forcing for lift brings about better
moisture return ahead of the approaching low and cold front.

While this precipitation event is forecast to be all rain, it will
be warm enough that thunderstorms may become a factor. With such a
dynamic system and at least some marginal instability per model
MUCAPE projections, there is at least some concern for a QLCS type
event late Saturday afternoon and evening, especially in southeast
Missouri. As a result, we have added a slight chance mention of
thunder to the forecast in southeast Missouri Sunday afternoon and
evening. It is not clear as to how much instability will remain
further east, but models suggest it should diminish heading later
into the nighttime hours Sunday.

The precipitation should taper off from west to east across most of
the area late Sunday night, but a few showers could linger into
Monday morning over eastern sections. The good news is that the air
mass that follows will not be nearly as cold as what we`ve had of
late. In fact, guidance suggests temperatures should cool down to
just near normal early next week behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 224 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

VFR conditions have returned to all terminals, although snow may
linger and potentially offer MVFR vsbys at KOWB for a few more
hours. Gusty northwest winds will continue, but should relax on
their gustiness as the day wears on. And while some clearing out
is possible during first half of the day, redeveloping low VFR to
potentially MVFR cigs could occur during the pm hours, with snow
flurries not out of the question, esp north.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

     Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM CST early this morning for
     MOZ112-114.

IN...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for KYZ001>011-
     013>016-018>020.

     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for KYZ001-002-
     006-008-009-011>013-015>017-019>022.

     Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM CST early this morning for
     KYZ003>005-007-010.

&&

$$


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