Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 282332 AAA

National Weather Service Paducah KY
532 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

Issued at 532 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 251 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

Will be cancelling the remaining portion of the Flash Flood Watch
early, as latest radar trends show the rains coming quickly to an
end across the southern portions of southeast Missouri.

The overwhelming trend in the latest guidance is for a more rapid
drying trend into this evening, but with all of the moisture in
the area and the cold front lingering just to the southeast will
err to the wet side tonight and Sunday. However, did manage to
remove PoPs in the KMVN area Sunday afternoon. The 12Z models
continue to stream disturbances northeast through the region and
keep QPF mainly over west Kentucky through Sunday night.

On Monday, the surface boundary will move back through the region
as a warm front in response to a strong storm system moving
northeast into the central and northern Plains. However, the
models are not very wet. In general, they keep QPF near the TN
border and just to the northwest of our region in northern and
western Missouri, closer to the stronger forcing. Will keep good
chance PoPs over most of the region, but many areas may very well
remain dry Monday.

The 12Z models are similarly non-committal for PoPs Monday night
as a weak surface trough/cold front moves through the area. Our
PoP forecast more closely resembles the timing in the 12Z ECMWF,
rather than the slower GFS solution.

With low overcast skies expected through the period, temperatures
will stay in a rather tight range. Generally stayed close to the
consensus through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

Good confidence in the extended.

Models are in good agreement of precipitation exiting the area
Tuesday. The GFS is slower than the ECMWF and Canadian solutions.
However they all agree on Tuesday becoming dry. The ECMWF and
Canadian would have us dry from 12z tue on. The GFS prefers a
Tuesday aftn departure. There may be a few high wrap around clouds
from the upper level low moving into the great lakes Tuesday. In
contrast a large surface high will take over by mid week with time
heights and soundings indicating a very dry atmosphere throughout the
column by late week. Flow will be out of the southwest as the upper
low departs to the northeast bringing slightly warmer temps for a
day. After that the surface flow turns west then northwest bringing
temps down closer to normal. The next system to approach the
heartland appears to be around day 9 or December 7th.


Issued at 532 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

With a weather system hung up across the region, LIFR/IFR
cigs/vsbys and periods of -RA/-DZ are expected to continue through
the period. Winds will generally remain out of the north to north
northeast AOB 10 knots.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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