Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 231156
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
556 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 555 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Quick update to incorporate latest obs data, and to increase cloud
cover this morning for the Pikes Peak region as well as for
portions of the eastern plains. Moore

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 352 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Currently...Northwest flow across the forecast area this morning
with a few mt wave clouds along the I-25 corridor still evident. As
of 330 am...temps ranged from the 20s and 30s for the high valleys,
30s and 40s for the far eastern plains, to the 50s to around 60F for
the I-25 corridor.

Today and tonight...Dry northwest flow aloft will continue through
the short term. An upper trough crossing the Dakotas has pushed a
weak cold front down into Colorado overnight, and it is expected to
cross the Palmer Divide by late morning. This will shift sfc winds
to a north to northeast direction initially, then flow will become
more easterly through the aftn. Again, this will be a dry cold front
so no pcpn is forecast, but temps are expected to only climb into
the 60s for most locations today. Tonight expect another cold night
with temps dropping into the 20s to lower 30s under mostly clear
skies. Moore

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Not much change in thinking during this extended period. A rather
strong cold front will move into the region during the day Thursday.
This system promises to bring colder weather to the region late
Thursday with increasing cloudiness and increasing chances for some
precip Thursday night and into Friday. As in the last few nights, EC
is still more aggressive (colder with better chance of precip) than
the GFS, and have leaned towards the EC with the fcst thinking. At
this time the best chance of precip will be the central mtns/greater
Fremont county/mtns plains interface regions. Min temps Thu nite &
Fri nite will likely be in the 20s across the plains with the
coldest nite Fri nite. Some of the precip at the lower elevations
could be light snow. Temps on Friday will be in the 40s and 50s
plains and valleys.

Otherwise, seasonable temps on Tuesday with temps warming about 10F
above normal for Wednesday. Some marginal critical fire weather
conditions may develop over the plains Wed afternoon due to breezy
conditions are RH values going below 15%.

For the weekend, expect seasonable temps with dry weather. The next
weather system is fcst to affect the region aoa Halloween.
/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 352 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the forecast area over the next 24
hrs, including the 3 main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. A weak
cold front will drop south across the eastern plains and I-25
corridor this morning, increasing northerly winds at KCOS and KPUB.
Moore


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE



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