Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 260145
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
645 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

STARTING TO GET A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT SNOW OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION FOR THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR
HAS BEEN BACKING OFF CONSIDERABLY FOR SNOWFALL IN LATEST RUNS. IN
MATTER OF FACT...THE 00Z RUN HAS NO PRECIP AT ALL FOR KCOS OR KPUB
NOW THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW. DUNNO IF THIS WILL HAPPEN...BUT HAVE
STARTED TO ADJUST THE POPS GRIDDS DOWNWARD FOR THIS EVENING OVER
THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR SHORT TERM HI RES PRODUCTS AND
ADJUST FCST AS NECESSARY. /HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

...SNOW AND COLD ON THE WAY...

WEATHER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT.  COLD UPPER LOW
CENTER OVER UTAH DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD 4 CORNERS REGION AS A
STRONG UPPER JET STREAM DIGS SOUTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA.  SYSTEM WILL
DIG SOUTH TO THE 4 CORNERS REGION TONIGHT...AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY
EAST NORTHEAST TOWARD KANSAS ON FRIDAY.  SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE GOOD AMOUNTS OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT
WILL ALSO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS
THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO POSITION NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION THIS
EVENING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES
PEAK REGION AND THEN SPREAD GRADUALLY SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BY MORNING...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE IMPACTING MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH THINGS JUST
GETTING GOING ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AREAS.

ON FRIDAY...SNOW SHOULD IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THE
DAY.  SNOWFALL SHOULD BE MODERATE IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOSTLY JUST
LIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS.  THIS AREA IS IN THE BEST POSITION TO RECEIVE THE
MOST SNOWFALL WITH THIS STORM.  WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE REST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...TELLER
COUNTY AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTIES FOR SIMILAR REASONING.

WILL ALSO ADD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO OVERNIGHT...STARTING IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND THEN
SPREADING THE ADVISORIES GRADUALLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  ON
FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE EXPANDED TO COVER ALL
AREAS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO...WHILE A WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES
FOR THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
SHY OF TYPICAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS AMOUNTS.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL GENERALLY SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES.  THE NORTHERN SAN
LUIS VALLEY...THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY
AND THE PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD SEE ABOUT 3 TO 6 INCHES.  THE SOUTHERN
SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE PLAINS SHOULD GENERALLY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES.

THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED FOR CUMULATIVE IMPACT.
DESPITE THE SNOWFALL BEING LESS THAN TYPICAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...THE OVERALL IMPACT WILL BE GREAT DUE TO THE TRAVEL LOAD
ON THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS.  EVEN AN INCH OR 2 OF SNOW CAN BE A
GREAT IMPACT WHEN THERE IS A LOT OF TRAFFIC ON THE ROADS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

FRI EVENING THE UPR LOW WL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM NERN CO INTO
CENTRAL NE AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE.  MEANWHILE AN UPR
TROF WL REMAIN OVR THE FORECAST THRU THE NIGHT.  IN THE EVENING
HOURS THERE WL STILL BE HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW ACRS THE MTN
AREAS...AND WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ERN
MTNS SLOPES...THESE AREAS SHOULD ALSO STILL BE SEEING LIGHT
SNOWFALL.    ALTHOUGH SNOW WL BE CONTINUING...THE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  BY LATE NIGHT SNOW CHANCES WL DECREASE ACRS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND BY 12Z SAT THERE WL PROBABLY BE ONLY SOME
ISOLD AREAS OF SNOW...MAINLY OVR AND NR THE MTNS.  TEMPS SAT MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO BE COLD WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THERE MAY STILL BE SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS OVR
THE HYR ELEVATIONS BUT THE REST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...WITH
READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 20S AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN COLDER
AT THE HYR AREAS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN MOSTLY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH COLDER READINGS IN THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND MTN AREAS.

WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUN WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVR AND NR THE
MTNS AREAS WHICH SHOULD HELP BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FOR THE
DAY...HOWEVER READINGS WL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.  THE WESTERLY FLOW
WL BRING AN INCREASE IN MSTR TO THE CONTDVD FOR SUN AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE CENTRAL CO
MTNS.

COLD WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK.
MON MORNING A FRONT MOVES INTO SERN CO...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND SNOW
DEVELOPING ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND OVR THE ERN MTNS BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLDER AIR MOVES OVR THE AREA FOR MON AND HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHICH IS
AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. BY MIDDAY TUE AND UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVR THE WRN NV BORDER...WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUING OVR CO. AT THIS TIME...TUE LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST
DAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
THE NAM KEEPS SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE HYR ELEVATIONS FOR
TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.  BY WED
MORNING THAT UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP S OR SSW INTO SRN CA.
DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THAT LOW ENDS UP...THERE MAY STILL BE
SOME SNOW ALONG THE CONTDVD...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.  TEMPS SHOULD
WARM A LITTLE FOR WED...BUT ONLY INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. ON THU
THE UPR LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO NRN AZ...WHICH
PUSHES SOME MSTR INTO WRN CO.  IT IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW HOW THIS
SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP AND ITS EXACT TRACK...BUT THERE WL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW AGAIN ACRS SRN CO AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

PACIFIC STORM MOVING INTO CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DRASTICALLY CHANGE WEATHER IN ALL AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW
INCREASING AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AT
THIS TIME. TONIGHT...SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE
REST OF THE FLIGHT AREA AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH
00Z...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. KCOS LIKELY TO GO
DOWN FIRST AND HARDEST...WITH VCSH BY 03Z AND SNOW BECOMING
WIDESPREAD 03Z-06Z. KPUB WILL SEE VCSH BY 04Z WITH SNOW BECOMING
WIDESPREAD 04Z-08Z. KALS WILL SEE VCSH BY 03Z FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WITH SNOW BECOMING WIDESPREAD 12Z-15Z FRIDAY. SNOW WILL THEN BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FLIGHT AREA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ067-
070-071-074-075-088-089-093>099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ058>060-064-
066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR COZ061>063-065-069-072-073-076>080-083-085>087.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR COZ081-082-084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...LW


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