Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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286
FXUS65 KPUB 210609
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1109 PM MST Sat Jan 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 747 PM MST Sat Jan 20 2018

Updated to make some adjustments to POPs for tonight and Sunday
and to add zone 62 (central Chaffee county to the Winter Wx
Advisory).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 418 PM MST Sat Jan 20 2018

...Winter Storm to Move Across the Area Tonight and Sunday...

Recent model timing is just a little slower on the arrival of this
system into our forecast area.  No snow detected in the Eastern San
Juan Mountains yet but it is starting to snow over the western San
Juans around Telluride.  Upper low is currently moving through
southern Nevada. Models have the low passing east of the Four
Corners Region after midnight and then continuing along or near the
southern Colorado border through 6 AM.  Then, as the low crosses
onto the plains around Trinidad, it will get more organized and take
a path east to northeast across the southeast Colorado plains and
enter into western Kansas by 6 PM.

This track will favor the southwest mountains initially this evening
and then the central mountains overnight through Sunday morning.
Most of the energy with this storm will not reach the eastern
mountains and plains until very late tonight and Sunday.  As the
systems crosses onto the plains near Trinidad early Sunday morning,
this should provide the dynamics and storm organization to get the
snow, wind and blowing snow going on the plains.  Very late tonight
and early Sunday, there will be a small window of opportunity for
some freezing drizzle over the plains early in the morning, mainly
over the far eastern plains. Soundings indicate a warm advection
layer over shallow near freezing air on the surface at that time.
But, soundings also indicate this all breaks down pretty quickly as
the storm system crosses onto the plains.  By 8 or 9 o`clock,
soundings indicate precipitation should be all snow.

As the morning unfolds, snow that has developed over Teller and El
Paso Counties should burst south across most of the plains, working
quickly southward and eastward over all of the plains with time.
With the snow, strong northerly winds will push south across the
area.  Sustained wind speeds of 25 gusting to around 40 mph or so
will become widespread across the plains Sunday morning through the
afternoon. The combination of the wind and snow will make for
hazardous travel conditions area-wide due to snow, blowing snow, low
visibilities and slick roads.  A good time to postpone travel if you
can.

As far as snowfall accumulations, the mountains and Palmer Divide
should see the greatest accumulations, generally in the 4-8 inch
range with greater amounts up to foot in the higher mountains.
Across the lower elevations, generally 1 to 4 inches will about do
it.  The immediate Colorado Springs and Pueblo areas will see a
shadowing effect from strong north winds coming downslope off of the
Palmer Divide...so generally only an inch or 2 in those areas. This
will be more winter than we`ve had for a while. It will be cold,
snowy and very windy.  Travel conditions will be poor due to wind,
snow and blowing snow. Stay off the roads Sunday if you can.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 418 PM MST Sat Jan 20 2018

Primary longer term meteorological issues will be the amount of
impact that departing system has over the forecast district into
Sunday night, followed by basically tranquil and mild conditions
from later Monday into at least Thursday evening(with localized
elevated fire weather concerns at times Thursday...primarily over
eastern sections) in advance of another potential system by next
Friday.

Recent longer term computer simulations, forecast model soundings
and PV/Precipitable water analysis indicate that vigorous closed
upper low centered over west-central Kansas at 00Z Monday will
move into northeastern Kansas by 12Z Monday before pushing into
the midwestern states by later Monday.

Then, a basically dry and mild northwesterly upper flow pattern
should ensue over the forecast district from later Monday into
Wednesday evening in advance of next storm system impacting the
CWA by next Friday.

For sensible weather, have depicted snow and blowing snow
as well as cold temperatures continuing into Sunday evening/night
as storm system departs the region and then have transitioned to
drier and warmer meteorological conditions from later Monday into
Thursday evening. As briefly touched upon earlier, increasing
winds in combination with drying conditions will allow for
localized elevated fire weather concerns at times
Thursday(favoring primarily eastern sections).

Then, the potential for unsettled, cooler and gusty conditions
will again be possible over many portions of the forecast district
by next Friday as next system impacts southern Colorado. As
always, WFO Pueblo will monitor this potential system closely.

At this time, the highest potential for gusty winds during the longer
term should be experienced into Sunday night and Monday and then
again from later Thursday into at least next Friday.

Finally, coolest temperatures during the longer term should be
realized from Sunday night into Wednesday morning and then again
by next Friday, while warmest conditions should be noted
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1057 PM MST Sat Jan 20 2018

A storm system will spread snow eastward across southern Colorado
tonight and Sunday. Conditions at KCOS will become MVFR or IFR
later tonight with snow developing. Strong north winds are
expected to develop at KCOS and KPUB in the late morning hours and
will continue thru the afternoon hours and possibly into the
evening. KPUB will also see conditions become MVFR or IFR with
periods of snow later tonight and into at least mid to late Sun
afternoon. KALS is expected to have showers in the vicinity from
tonight and into Sun afternoon and will at times could have MVFR
conditions, and if it snows at KALS conditions could briefly
become IFR.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday for
COZ095>099.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM MST Sunday for COZ062-
063-076>078-083-085>089-093-094.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Sunday for COZ058>061.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday for
COZ072>075-079>082.

Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM MST Sunday for COZ064-066-068.

Winter Storm Warning from 2 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday for COZ084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
AVIATION...28



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