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FXUS62 KTAE 300114
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
914 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

An arc of convection from Americus, GA to Lake Seminole to coastal
waters near Apalachicola will continue to dissipate through the
evening. The strongest convection remains offshore with an area of
low pressure producing strong winds and possibly a waterspout.
Further inland, storms may produce heavy rain and gusty winds, but
are expected to weaken as the night continues. With heavy cloud
cover from storms across the area, temperatures will only fall to
the mid to upper 70s, around 80 along the immediate coastline.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Friday] Scattered TSRA near ABY and TLH will continue
to dissipate this evening. Convection will pick back up tomorrow
afternoon. Outside of storms, VFR conditions are expected.


&&

.Hydrology...

Although coverage of storms has been scattered for the most part,
areas that have received rain have received around 1-2", with one
area near Lake Seminole receiving over 5" of rain so far tonight.
These totals have not caused rises along our area rivers, but have
caused some localized flooding. Rain chances will remain high
through the rest of the week with 5 day estimated rain totals
around 3-4" along the coast, especially in the southeastern Big
Bend. Elsewhere, 1.5-2.5" is likely. Area rivers are still below
action stage. With the heaviest rainfall expected near the coast,
river flooding is not expected.

&&

.Prev Discussion [359 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The upper pattern will begin to change during this period as the
upper ridge begins to retreat westward as a trough bulges into the
Southeast. At the surface a cold front will pass through the
Appalachians on Thursday, and stall out across the Tri-State
region by Friday. Convection on Thursday will likely be the result
of any remnant boundaries as well as the Gulf Coast seabreezes,
with no upstream MCS influence at this time. By Friday, the
forcing becomes a bit more complicated with influences from the
aforementioned front, a surface trough/low, and the seabreeze
fronts. In general, expect high PoPs each afternoon, highest on
Friday.

High temperatures will remain above average tomorrow as convection
will likely hold off until the afternoon. Borderline heat advisory
conditions will be possible. On Friday, more convective coverage
on a not so diurnal time frame should keep temperatures in the
lower 90s, with heat advisory conditions not expected.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

It appears as though the wet pattern will continue through the
extended range forecast as several shortwaves keep the eastern
CONUS trough extending into the Southeast. Additionally, at the
surface, the stalled front is expected to linger through the
period, only gradually weakening each day. Expect above normal
PoPs and near normal high temperatures each day.


.Marine...

Southwest winds below headline levels will prevail for the next
several days. Late this week, into the weekend, there will be a
possibility for some brief cautionary level winds. Thunderstorms
will be numerous over the waters each night, with scattered storms
each afternoon.


.Fire Weather...

An active weather pattern in place will keep rain chances and
relative humidity values high, preventing us from reaching red flag
criteria for the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  91  76  90  75 /  80  50  30  60  40
Panama City   80  88  79  88  78 /  70  50  30  60  40
Dothan        76  93  75  92  74 /  50  50  40  50  40
Albany        76  93  76  90  74 /  80  50  30  50  40
Valdosta      76  90  75  89  74 /  40  50  30  60  40
Cross City    77  87  76  88  75 /  50  50  30  60  40
Apalachicola  79  88  79  88  78 / 100  50  30  60  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...MOORE/HARRIGAN
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...MOORE/MCDERMOTT



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