Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 240132
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
932 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
00 UTC surface analysis shows the cold front had passed a
Tallahassee to Valdosta line but had not quite made it to Cross
City. Much drier air was continuing to surge into the forecast
area with skies rapidly becoming clear. The pressure gradient
across the region is fairly relaxed as a weak area of high
pressure is noted back across Central Mississippi and this will
drop SE overnight. A reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air is
analyzed further back across the Southern Plains and will be
approaching the area on Tuesday.

For the overnight period, with the front clearing the forecast
area shortly, rain chances have been dropped to 0. Main concern
overnight is how low overnight temperatures will drop. Some weak
cool advection will continue through the night and as such the
surface winds are not expected to go fully calm. However, the
incoming airmass is fairly cool, so expect lows to at least reach
the mid 50s, with some cooler reading possible across the western
half of the forecast area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [735 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Slightly cooler airmass will follow the initial front on Tuesday.
However, afternoon highs will still likely reach the mid to upper
70s. Primary trough axis will dig into the Deep South by late
Tuesday, sending the main push of colder air across the forecast
area. Expect lows on Wednesday and Thursday mornings to reach well
into the 40s. Highs on Wednesday are unlikely to reach 70 degrees.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...
Temperatures will briefly moderate on Thursday and Friday as a
shortwave ridge crosses the area. Thereafter, another deep trough
is expected to dig into the eastern states, bringing another
round of below normal temperatures for Sunday into early next
week. Scattered showers will be possible ahead of this front on
late Saturday into early Sunday.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Wednesday]...
A cold front has moved through the region and VFR conditions are
expected through the forecast period. Breezy northwest winds up to
17 knots are expected Tuesday afternoon.


.MARINE...
Northwesterly winds are expected overnight in the wake of a cold
front with conditions dropping to Exercise Caution levels. Winds
will increase back to near Small Craft Advisory levels Tuesday
night in the wake of a secondary front. Thereafter, conditions
will gradually improve through the end of the week.


.FIRE WEATHER...
A dry and cool airmass will move over the region on Tuesday in
the wake of a cold front. Daytime relative humidity values will
drop into the low to mid 30 percent range for much of this week,
though this will still be above red flag criteria.


.HYDROLOGY...
The heaviest rain fell over the far western portion of the
forecast area overnight, with as much as 8 inches reported in
western Walton County. This caused the Shoal River at Mossy Head
to rise quickly above action stage. However, the river is expected
to crest below flood stage this evening. Elsewhere, modest rises
are expected on area rivers, but none are expected to reach flood
stage.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   56  77  47  69  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   57  74  51  68  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        51  72  44  65  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        52  74  45  66  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      56  75  46  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    59  78  48  70  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  57  78  51  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Tuesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Camp



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