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FXUS62 KTAE 171538
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1038 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

...PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS THE REGION; BITTER COLD JUST
BEGINNING...

.UPDATE...

The Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled in all counties at
this hour, as wintry precipitation has tapered off across these
areas. The precipitation band, currently located over the Suwannee
River Valley, is quickly eroding at this hour. The latest radar
and observation data show that the precip band has mostly outrun
the cold air, thus keeping precipitation type as mostly rain in
this area. Any wintry precip that does manage to mix in with what
is left of this rain band will not yield any impacts in this
region.

Bitter cold air has begun to encroach upon the region along with
gusty northerly winds. Temperatures across the Wiregrass Region
have already fallen into the mid to lower 20s at this hour.
Northerly winds of 10 to 15 mph with occasional higher gusts are
yielding wind chills in the teens across these areas. Expect cold
air to continue to march eastward through the day, with miserable
conditions persisting through the remainder of the period. Though
the sunny conditions are expected behind the front, temperatures
will not recover much through the remainder of the day. Be sure
to dress in layers if out and about, and continue to use caution
when driving, especially in areas that have already fallen below
freezing at this hour. While traffic and wind will help to dry
roadways in some areas, slick spots could still form as
temperatures drop - especially on bridges and overpasses.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1001 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

It`s been an interesting winter so far, and today is no exception.

***CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST***

Added more of a wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet along the
front edge of the precip before changing over to all snow as
temperatures fall. As a result, added small ice accumulation of a
couple hundredths across the northwest half of the area in addition
to snow amounts up to 1 inch. This will only make travel more
treacherous.

***KEY POINTS***

Greatest impacts are expected across southeastern Alabama and
portions of southwest Georgia. However, a small amount of freezing
rain extending down into the Florida panhandle will result in some
icy conditions there as well. Bridges and overpasses will be
particularly at risk of seeing snow and ice accumulation.

*Timing: Greatest impacts lasting through around 11 am EST.

CONCERNING WINTRY PRECIPITATION: The addition of more of a wintry
mix was based on upstream reports and HRRR soundings supporting
light freezing rain and sleet at the onset before changing over to
all snow. HRRR derived p-type superimposed on the current radar
shows this as well. A band of moderate snow is expected across
southeast Alabama and extending into southwest Georgia before precip
comes to an end this morning. Will monitor reports closely for any
last minute upgrades to a winter storm warning, but overall the
message remains the same.  Travel will be very hazardous in the
areas of freezing rain, sleet, and snow this morning with
temperatures falling well below freezing this morning and struggling
to rise above freezing this afternoon.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

***KEY POINTS***

* Very cold temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday
  nights, so people are encouraged to take proper precautions.
  Remember to protect the 4 P`s: people, pipes, pets, and plants.

* Any residual moisture lingering across areas that receive wintry
  precipitation on Wednesday may experience refreezing from
  Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Elevated surfaces will be
  most at risk.

* Be sure to dress properly each morning: wear layers and limit
  the amount of exposed skin.

As the cold front moves farther southeast of our area tonight, dry
conditions will occur and cold air advection will persist under
north-northwesterly flow. As a result, temperatures will drop
into the lower 20s overnight across our area, with our
northwestern areas likely reaching the upper teens on Thursday
morning. Coldest locations will be in SE Alabama, where some
residual light snow cover may help to reduce temperatures even
more. As winds remain around 10 mph, apparent temperatures will
drop to the 10-15 degree range across most of our area, with even
some single digit wind chills in our NW locations early Thursday
morning. As a result, wind chill advisories are in effect across
our area, with a hard freeze watch for all but immediate coastal
areas.

Temperatures will rebound nicely on Thursday under clear skies and
decreasing winds, but due to the very cold start, highs will only
reach the mid-upper 40s across our area. As high pressure settles
in to our area, temperatures will drop quickly again on Thursday
night under clear skies and light winds with lows reaching the
lower-mid 20s inland and upper 20s along the coast. As deep layer
ridging builds on Friday, highs will reach the 50s across our
area.


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Deep layer ridging will continue to build from Friday night
through Sunday, leading to dry conditions and a warming trend
this weekend. Highs will reach the lower 60s on Saturday, and
range from the upper 60s to near 70 on Sunday. From Sunday night
into Monday, an upper level trough will move eastward across our
area along with a cold front at the surface. The combination of
strong forcing and increasing moisture will lead to a good chance
of rain Monday as the front moves eastward across our area. Dry
and slightly cooler conditions will return from Monday night
through midweek behind the front as high pressure builds back over
our area.


.AVIATION...

[Through 12z Thursday] Wintry TAFs for most sites through the mid-
morning hours with a mix of precip at most places except VLD, and
transitioning to snow at ABY and DHN. VFR conditions are expected
to return from west to east through the day with clearing skies
and gusty northwest winds.


.MARINE...

A small craft advisory remains in effect through Thursday morning
for all but eastern nearshore zones. Strong northerly winds from
20 to 25 knots with higher gusts will result in choppy seas.
Winds and seas will decrease on Thursday, and become light from
Friday through Saturday.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Conditions will be close to red flag this afternoon across portions
of the Florida panhandle due to high ERCs and northwest winds around
15 mph, but RH values are borderline near 28 percent, so will hold
off on issuing a red flag warning. After today, red flag conditions
are unlikely for the remainder of the week.


.HYDROLOGY...

Light snow and mixed precipitation will fall this morning across
western and northern parts of our area, and then dry conditions
will persist through the weekend. As a result, no flooding is
anticipated and moderate to severe drought conditions will
persist.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   39  20  48  24  56 /  30   0   0   0   0
Panama City   38  25  47  29  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
Dothan        32  18  46  24  53 /  60   0   0   0   0
Albany        35  20  47  24  53 /  80   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      39  21  47  24  54 /  30   0   0   0   0
Cross City    46  21  48  23  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  41  24  47  30  54 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 1
     PM EST /noon CST/ Thursday for Calhoun-Central Walton-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
     Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-
     Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-South Walton-
     Washington.

     Hard Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-North Walton-Washington.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Gulf-Jackson-Liberty-North Walton-
     South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Gulf.

GA...Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday
     for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-
     Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Hard Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
     Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-
     Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Baker-Ben
     Hill-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-
     Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-
     Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday
     for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Hard Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pullin
NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Lahr


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