Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 230049
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
849 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Only minor updates were made to tonight`s forecast based on latest
radar trends, observations and model data. The best chance of a
few showers and thunderstorms persisting this evening is across
parts of SW Georgia, with most areas only having a slight chance
of showers/storms as instability and forcing decrease. Overnight
lows will be in the lower-mid 70s inland and upper 70s along the
coast.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION [715 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Wednesday will be another typical summertime day with late morning
and afternoon storms owing to the seabreeze. As well, a weak mid
level vort center crossing Alabama will add support to showers
and storms in SE Alabama and SW Georgia apart from the seabreeze.
A weak frontal boundary makes it into our area beginning
Wednesday night. Thursday the front will provide most of the
convergence for rainfall with the seabreeze adding as well.
Chances are around 40% Wednesday and 50-60% Thursday. Highs will
be in the low to mid 90s.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Low confidence in the latter portions of the long term. The front
makes it through by Friday with typical summertime rain chances in
the afternoon. From that point on, concerning rain chances, the
Euro and GFS diverge with the Euro bringing in more drier air from
the north beginning Saturday whereas the GFS is more moist and
therefore rainfall chances are higher. In the mix as well,
beginning later in the weekend, what happens with the tropical
system in the Gulf and a future low off the east coast of Florida
will have significant impacts to the forecast as well. My
philosophy was to take a blend of the GFS and Euro until the
models come more in line. Again, low confidence in the long term.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Thursday]...

Isolated showers continue this evening and are unlikely to impact
any of the regional terminals. This activity will diminish over
the next hour or two. The probabilities for cig/vis restrictions
are lower than they were for last night and fog wasn`t expected at
this time last night. Will blend in a little persistence and
indicate the potential for some late night IFR restrictions though
at DHN and VLD. Otherwise, VFR should prevail at all terminals
through the TAF. Showers and thunderstorms appear to be most
likely at DHN, ABY, and VLD tomorrow afternoon.


.MARINE...

Light winds and low seas will continue through the end
of the work week with high pressure dominating and isolated
showers and storms each day. Winds and seas increase to more
moderate levels beginning this weekend.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Apart from low dispersion values on Thursday, no fire weather
concerns are anticipated across our area due to high RH values and
light winds.


.HYDROLOGY...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next few
days. Localized ponding of water is possible in poor drainage areas
with the heaviest rainfall, but widespread flooding is not expected
through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  94  75  93  75 /  20  40  20  40  30
Panama City   78  90  78  90  78 /  20  30  20  30  20
Dothan        74  92  74  91  73 /  20  40  30  50  30
Albany        75  93  74  92  74 /  20  40  30  50  40
Valdosta      73  92  74  93  74 /  20  40  30  50  40
Cross City    73  93  74  93  75 /  10  20  20  30  30
Apalachicola  76  90  76  90  77 /  20  20  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...Pullin


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