Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 260648
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
248 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
In the upper levels the trough will move out this morning allowing a
ridge to build in from the south. At the surface a low pressure
system parked over Illinois will slowly drift northeast. The
associated cold front will remain well to our northwest and
southerly flow will continue. A few showers may linger this morning
as the trough exits the region. Showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon as daytime heating
provides instability to a moist environment. POPs are in the 30 to
50 percent range this afternoon. Clouds will begin to clear out late
this afternoon (earlier in the afternoon for most Florida counties).
Highs will be near 80 inland.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
Mid level shortwave ridging located across the southeast CONUS
tonight will shift eastward Monday in response to a shortwave
trough moving across the central/southern Plains. This trough will
weaken as it shifts northeastward with the southern extent of the
trough dampening out. Surface high pressure ridge across the area
will hold intact through the period despite the influence of the
trough. A weak cold front moves into central Mississippi/Alabama
by the end of the period, but with the surface ridge and mid level
ridging building across the area, the front will slow down and
remain north of our southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia counties
Tuesday. Only isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm is
anticipated this period, favoring our Alabama/Georgia counties
closer to the passing trough and approaching cold front. Florida
counties will remain largely dry this period.
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
The front from the short term does appear to sag into our
Alabama/Georgia counties providing a focus for isolated showers
Tuesday night and Wednesday before lifting northward away from the
area. Thursday appears dry and in between systems as a stronger
system takes shape to our west. This system will make a run at us
Thursday night and Friday. There is good agreement between the GFS
and ECMWF regarding timing but off some on amounts. Raised PoPs a
little Thursday night and Friday based on consistency and
agreement in the model solutions. This system exits to the east
Friday night with ridging building in and dry weather expected
.AVIATION [Through 06Z Monday]...
A line of showers will continue to move through the region
overnight. Conditions will be mostly VFR but MVFR conditions are
possible where rain is falling and in the early morning hours.
Clouds will linger into the afternoon hours at most locations. A few
showers may develop this afternoon.
Favorable marine conditions are expected through much of the
upcoming work week featuring light to moderate southerly winds and
seas decreasing to 1 to 3 feet beginning Monday. The next major
storm system arrives Friday which will increase the winds and seas
to atleast cautionary levels.
RH values will stay above Red Flag criteria for the next several
days. Rain chances will increase this afternoon, mainly inland.
No significant rainfall is expected through Thursday so no
flooding concerns are anticipated.
The next major storm system will arrive late work week. There is
a decent chance for rainfall across all of the area. The system
appears to move through quick enough so not much flooding concerns
with that system as well at this time.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 80 57 83 58 82 / 30 0 10 10 10
Panama City 74 62 75 64 76 / 20 0 10 10 10
Dothan 80 60 82 61 81 / 30 0 20 20 20
Albany 81 60 84 61 83 / 40 20 20 20 20
Valdosta 81 58 84 58 84 / 40 20 20 10 10
Cross City 81 58 82 57 82 / 20 10 20 10 10
Apalachicola 74 61 77 62 77 / 10 0 10 10 10
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning
through this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-South