Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 240756
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
256 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
An upper level shortwave continues to drift slowly eastward off the
Atlantic coast of the southeastern CONUS, along with a broad area of
low pressure at the surface. To the west of this feature, an upper
level ridge and high pressure at the surface will continue to build
over our area. Generally clear skies and light to calm winds early
this morning could result in patchy fog or low clouds across our
area, but any fog/low clouds will dissipate shortly after sunrise.
With mostly clear skies persisting under the strong upper ridge,
another warm day is expected with near record highs possible across
much of our area (low-mid 80s inland, mid-upper 70s near the Gulf
Coast). The current forecast for Tallahassee is 83, which would tie
the daily record for February 24 if it verifies.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...
A cold front will push into the southeast tonight and push through
the CWA on Saturday. Moisture with the front is limited and the
energy with the system remains north of the area. Given this,
impacts from the front will be limited to a slight chance of showers
across the CWA and cooler, drier air behind the front. Low
temperatures tonight with the increased cloud coverage ahead of the
front will drop into the upper 50s. Temperatures Saturday will warm
into the 70s, a few degrees cooler than today.
Behind the front, high pressure will build into the CWA and
cooler and drier air will filter into the tri-state area. Low
temperatures Sunday morning will dip down into the upper 30s to
lower 40s, slightly below normal. High temperatures Sunday will
remain noticeably cooler in the mid 60s to lower 70s, seasonable
for this time of year.
.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
The surface high mentioned in the short term will slide into the
Atlantic Sunday night as a surface low lifts from the southern
Plains into the Ohio Valley. This system will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms back to the northern portion of the CWA.
Another cold front will move through the CWA Wednesday to Wednesday
night bringing a widespread chance of showers and thunderstorms back
to the area. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s except a few areas in
the northern portion of the CWA are expected to drop into the 60s
behind the front on Thursday. Low temperatures in the long term will
be much more variable - ranging from the 40s to 60s.
.AVIATION [Through 06Z Saturday]...
VFR conditions currently prevail at all terminals. However, light to
calm winds under clear skies could result in development of some
patchy fog and/or low clouds from 09Z through the early morning
hours. Shortly after sunrise, any fog or low clouds will dissipate
and VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.
Winds of 5 to 10 knots today will increase to exercise caution
levels Saturday night through Monday behind a weak cold front. Winds
and seas will subside later on Monday but increase again late week
with another cold front.
No fire weather hazards will occur today with light winds and RH
values well above critical thresholds. On Saturday and Sunday, much
drier air will move into our area behind a cold front. Minimum RH
values will drop into the 20-30 percent range each day, with lowest
values likely on Sunday but winds will be highest (approaching 15
mph) on Saturday. Red Flag criteria looks unlikely to be met based
on current fuel moisture along with other critical thresholds, but
cannot be ruled out on Saturday/Sunday at this point.
A few points on the Florida Panhandle rivers continue to rise from
rainfall earlier this week. The Choctawhatchee at Carryville and
Bruce are in action stage and continue to rise but are not
expected to reach flood stage. The Apalachicola River at
Blountstown is also rising in action stage but should crest today
in action stage.
No significant rainfall is expected over the next 5 days.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 83 58 77 41 70 / 0 10 20 0 0
Panama City 75 63 71 46 65 / 0 10 20 0 0
Dothan 82 58 70 39 65 / 0 20 20 0 0
Albany 83 59 73 39 66 / 0 10 20 0 0
Valdosta 83 58 77 41 68 / 0 0 20 0 0
Cross City 82 58 77 43 71 / 0 0 10 0 0
Apalachicola 74 61 75 45 66 / 0 10 20 0 0