Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 210423
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
923 PM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will continue into early next week.
Daytime temperatures will gradually increase to near record or
record levels by Thanksgiving and into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Partly to mostly cloudy skies dominated southeast
Arizona today. Expect this trend to continue into tomorrow afternoon
as cirriform clouds pour in from the north and move around the
periphery of the high currently centered off the west coast of Baja
California. High temperatures were a degree or two higher than
yesterday across the area with the exception of Safford, which was a
degree below yesterday`s high. Thanks in part to the cloud cover,
tonight`s lows will also be up from last night. Latest model
guidance is consistent with the current forecast so no updates are
necessary at this time. Please see previous discussion for more
details.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 22/06Z.
SCT to BKN clouds above 20k ft AGL through much of the period. SFC
wind variable at less than 8 kts tonight into Tuesday morning. By
afternoon winds will be out of the north/northwest at 5-10 knots
becoming variable less than 8 knots after sunset. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions over the next 7 days. Well above
normal temperatures return to the region Thanksgiving through the
upcoming weekend. 20-foot winds may be gusty from the east Wednesday
into Thursday. Winds will be terrain driven at mainly less than 15
mph at other times.

&&

.CLIMATE...Several web pages are headlined on our website that
pertain to the record temperatures that will be occurring during
the Thanksgiving 4 day holiday weekend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Partly to mostly cloudy conditions continue this
afternoon with cirrus streaming across the state under northwest
flow. Surface temperatures this afternoon are running just about
even with temperatures 24 hours ago. Depending on some breaks in the
clouds, there`s still enough time for an additional degree or two of
heating.

High pressure will begin to build in over the region tomorrow with
height and thicknesses increasing. The ridge will continue to
amplify through Thanksgiving and beyond, with record or near-record
warmth occuring starting Wednesday and continuing through the four
day holiday weekend. For Tucson, both the daily (Nov 23) and
Thanksgiving record high temperatures will be in jeopardy. As a
reminder, the average high temperature this time of year is around
72 degrees, and the average high temperature at KTUS through 11/19
has been 84 degrees. With high pressure firmly in control for the
next 7 days, the chance for precip remains nil.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

ECC/AH

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