Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 032126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
226 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A dry forecast is in place through Tuesday before
another storm system moves through the region from Baja Mexico late
Tuesday into Wednesday which will result in a slight chance of
precipitation mainly over the White mountains Tuesday night and


.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows the upper low spinning over
southern Sonora Mexico, with moisture and associated showers
streaming northward into southern New Mexico. Visible and IR
satellite imagery shows cloudiness mainly along the international
border into New Mexico as well as areas south into Sonora and over a
large part of Chihuahua Mexico and west Texas. Radar mosaic from
around the region shows scattered showers occurring over extreme
southwest and south central New Mexico, with the activity moving

Based on the latest satellite and radar trends, I have a dry
forecast in place for this evening and through the overnight hours.
However, will continue to see cloudiness along the borders with
Mexico and New Mexico into the evening hours. These clouds will
slowly move away from southeast Arizona Sunday.

As the aforementioned closed low continues to move southeast, deeper
into Mexico, a dry northwest flow aloft will develop over the Desert
Southwest into Monday with zonal flow Monday night into Tuesday. A
system to our north will brush by northern Arizona late Tuesday
through midday Wednesday, but a weak system off Baja will move
across southern Arizona and northern Sonora, resulting in a slight
chance of showers over the White mountains during that time.

Dry weather will once again return during the latter part of the
week and into the weekend as a ridge builds over the eastern
Pacific and a dry northwest flow aloft develops.

For Tucson, high temperatures will hover within a degree or two
either side of normal Sunday through Thursday, then 3 to 5 degs
above normal for Friday and Saturday. Lows also within a degree or
two of normal throughout the forecast period.


.AVIATION...Valid through 05/00Z.
KTUS vicinity westward/northwestward expect clear skies or a few
clouds around 8k-12k ft AGL. East and south of KTUS expect broken to
overcast clouds around 6k-10k ft AGL into this evening, then
clearing skies later tonight. Clear skies or a few clouds around 6k-
10k ft AGL will prevail east and south of KTUS Sunday. Locally gusty
east surface wind to 15 kts southeast of KTUS this evening. Surface
wind variable in direction less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...There is a slight chance of snow showers across the
White Mountains Tuesday night and Wednesday. Otherwise, dry
conditions will prevail into next Saturday. Some gusty southwest
winds may occur Tuesday, and gusty east winds may occur Thursday and
Friday. 20-foot winds will mainly be less than 15 mph at other times.






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