Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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668
FXUS65 KTWC 290423
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
922 PM MST Sun May 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Adequate moisture will provide a chance of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms mainly near the New Mexico border Monday into
Thursday. Hotter than usual temperatures Monday and Tuesday will
moderate closer to seasonal normals Wednesday and Thursday. Expect
dry conditions with another warming trend to prevail next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest models continued to advertise an increase in
moisture across areas east of Tucson tomorrow into Thursday. This
will result in a chance of afternoon and evening showers and/or
thunderstorms near the New Mexico state line and in the White
Mountains. Otherwise, still looking at an increase in southeast
winds developing later tonight and tomorrow morning east of Tucson.
Current forecast reflected these trends, so no updates necessary
late this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 30/06Z.
KTUS vicinity eastward, clear skies tonight then a FEW-BKN clouds at
10k-15k ft AGL Monday. Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA east of a
KSAD-KDUG line 17Z-23Z Monday. Surface wind sely to swly 8-18 kts
with gusts to 25 kts late tonight into Monday. West of KTUS, SKC to
FEW clouds above 20k ft AGL and surface wind mostly less than 10 kts
into Monday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Increased moisture in combination with a series of
disturbances aloft will bring a chance of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms mainly near the New Mexico border Monday through
Thursday. Expect gusty and erratic winds due to thunderstorm
outflows. Dry conditions will prevail area wide Friday into next
Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Gusty east to southeast winds are expected to
develop east of Tucson later tonight and continue into Monday
morning. As a result, the 28/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF remained similar
versus their respective previous solutions with depicting increased
lower and mid-level moisture especially near the New Mexico border
by early Monday. The 28/12Z Univ. of Arizona WRF-NAM and WRF-GFS
also remained similar versus their previous solutions with
developing fairly robust precip-echoes across the White Mountains
late Monday morning. The bulk of these echoes were then progged to
move eastward into southwest New Mexico later Monday afternoon.

Based on these solutions as well as coordination with neighboring
WFO`s, have maintained a slight chance of showers/tstms across the
White Mountains Monday morning, then a chance of showers/tstms
mainly near the New Mexico border Monday afternoon. Precip chances
will decrease Monday night with the loss of daytime heating.

The GFS/ECMWF/CMC were similar with depicting a negatively-tilted
upper trough to be over southern California and northern Baja
California Tuesday into Wednesday. This upper pattern appears to
promote a somewhat further westward development of showers/tstms
versus Monday. Thus, there is a slight chance of afternoon and
evening showers/tstms Tuesday and Wednesday across Greenlee, Graham
and much of Cochise Counties, though not as far west as the
Catalina/Rincon Mountains near Tucson. A slight chance of showers/
tstms continues across the White Mountains Thursday.

A drier northwesterly flow aloft regime should commence Friday as a
shortwave ridge approaches from the west. Thereafter, the GFS/ECMWF
were similar with depicting a deepening upper trough once again over
the southern California/northern Baja California region. However, at
this time appears that precip-free conditions will prevail next
weekend as deeper moisture remains north-to-east of the area.

The warming trend that began this afternoon will continue into
Monday, then no significant change in daytime temperatures will
occur Tuesday. Thus, high temperatures Monday and Tuesday will
generally average about 2-5 degrees above normal. A few degrees of
cooling is on tap Wednesday and Thursday followed by slightly warmer
temperatures next weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PREV DISCUSSION...Francis

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