Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 040949
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
248 AM MST SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL EXPERIENCE A STEADY INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL
ELEVATE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW MOVING NORTHWARD FROM A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
OVER SONORA MEXICO HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST
HRRR SOLUTION APPEARED TO BE DEPICTING THE LOCATION OF THIS
DEVELOPMENT RATHER WELL. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS DEEP AND MOIST
CONVECTION EXPANDING NORTH AND WESTWARD TODAY. IN GENERAL...THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORABLE TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR FOR AN UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO.
THEREAFTER...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OFF THE WEST
COAST OF CALIFONIA AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INLAND BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL READINGS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
ISOLD -SHRA/TS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS MORNING ACROSS
GRAHAM/COCHISE/GREENLEE COUNTIES AND FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY. FOR THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...SCTD -TSRA/-SHRA WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF
35-45 KTS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL MAINLY BE AT OR ABOVE 8K FT
AGL AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
ACROSS COCHISE...GRAHAM...GREENLEE COUNTIES AND FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY.
OTHERWISE THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COMBINATION
OF BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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