Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 310432
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
932 PM MST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY CLEAR...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THEN...SOME MOISTURE WILL SNEAK BACK
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE PRONOUNCED LATER IN THE WEEK WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 31/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SONORA...WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...WITH A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS STRETCHING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...NORTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 90S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 92 DEGS AFTER REACHING AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 104
DEGS... WHICH WAS 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THESE CURRENT
READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL MAKE CHANGES IF NEEDED. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z.
SKC CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 8-12K FT
AGL MAINLY EAST OF A KOLS-KSAD LINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL THEN BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
TUCSON ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND DIURNALLY/TERRAIN
DRIVEN AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEW POINT TRENDS ARE UP AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. WITH THE WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW BELOW H5 THIS IS MAKING SOME
INITIAL INROADS IN RESTORING MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT
THE WESTERLIES ARE NOT COOPERATING FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...KEEPING A
DEEPER INFLUX OF MOISTURE AT BAY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WESTERLIES WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY WITH MOISTURE
LURKING TO OUR SOUTH STARTING TO MAKE BETTER PROGRESS INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. BORDER AREAS INCLUDING SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHERN COCHISE
COUNTY SHOULD START TO RAMP UP WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW UNDER H5
AS THE RIDGE AXIS PHASES EAST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
DEVELOP STORMS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. TROPICAL INFLUENCES START TO
REALLY LOAD UP THE MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME OF THAT SHOULD SLOSH TOWARD OUR AREA
EVEN AS LATE SEASON HIGHER LATITUDE INFLUENCES START TO INTRUDE MORE
AND MORE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS WE AREN`T DONE WITH OUR SUMMER
THUNDERSTORM SEASON QUITE YET.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/ZELL






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