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000
FXUS65 KTWC 230942
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
240 AM MST THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DEEPEN
ALONG THE ENTIRE WEST COAST AND LINGER OVER THE REGION WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BRINGING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
AFTERNOONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL BUT REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE 00Z GFS/EC/CANADIAN ARE NOW SHOWING A STRONG SYSTEM COMING OUT
OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MEMORIAL DAY AND DIVING SE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
SYSTEM BUT IT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...ANY CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...SKC-FEW CLOUDS AOA 20K FT. SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS
THRU 23/15Z...THEN INCREASING SURFACE WIND WITH SLY/SWLY AT 14-19
KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS THRU 24/03Z. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS AGAIN AFT 24/05Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND A
VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL
VALUES BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT TIMES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS MAY BE EXCEEDED THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY (THE ALPINE
DISTRICT) WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL
8 PM MST.

&&

.CLIMATE...WITH TUCSON JUST MISSING THE FIRST 100 OF THE YEAR BY AN
EYELASH...LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT ATTEMPT HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL EARLY JUNE.
ALTHOUGH THE FIRST 100 HAS OCCURRED IN JUNE ONLY TWICE SINCE
1990...HISTORICALLY 1/3RD OF THE OCCURRENCES HAVE BEEN IN JUNE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FROM 12 NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR NORTHERN
   FIRE WEATHER ZONE 146 INCLUDING THE ALPINE DISTRICT.

&&

$$

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