Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 281637

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
937 AM MST WED SEP 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An area of low pressure aloft will provide a chance of
showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. A slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms Friday will exist east of Tucson, then
dry conditions will prevail this weekend into early next week.
Temperatures will climb back to near or a little above average
from Thursday onward.


.DISCUSSION...Plenty of cloud cover with embedded isolated showers
this morning. Partial clearing over the next couple of hours. The
low has lifted to a position northwest of our area (near the CA/AZ
border) as it fills a bit. Roslyn has shorn apart off the southern
Baja coast and is now a remnant low. The low level circulation
will not come into play for our weather, however that moisture
plume pushing up this way from the south and southwest has an
embedded impulse from the left-over mid level circulation. Based
on water vapor imagery at 9:15 AM it appears to be near the
central Gulf of California and pushing fairly quickly toward us
under the guidance of the low to our northwest and high pressure
to our southeast. We`ve seen some mid level warming and lost much
of our convective potential over the past 24 hours, however this
feature could help things along later this afternoon. We tweaked
our precip chances up a bit with this in mind, and current HRRR
trends reflect as much.

Please see the previous discussion below for details beyond today.


.AVIATION...Valid through 29/18Z.
Another chance of -TSRA/-SHRA this afternoon and early evening.
Ceilings generally 7K- 11K FT AGL, with brief MVFR conditions and
higher terrain obscurations on occasion. Surface wind easterly to
southerly at 5-12 kts with gusts to near 25 kts at times. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A chance of thunderstorms exists area-wide through
Thursday evening, then a drying trend will begin late Thursday and
continue into this weekend. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms Friday will continue east of Tucson followed by dry
conditions Saturday through next Tuesday. Expect occasionally gusty
east winds through Thursday, then normal diurnal wind trends to
prevail Friday into early next week.


.PREV DISCUSSION...The trof axis to our west will lift through
the state on Thursday keeping a chance of showers and
thunderstorms across mainly the eastern two-thirds of the area.
Localized heavy rainers, especially in the mountains of Graham and
Greenlee counties.

Drier southwest flow aloft will push moisture east of the area on
Friday, but enough will be around near the AZ/NM border on the last
day of Monsoon 2016 for a slight chance of afternoon showers/storms.

Dry weekend area wide as Pacific upper level trof pushes inland.
This feature will pass by to our north on Monday, keeping it dry,
but kicking up the afternoon breezes.

High temperatures at or slightly below normal thru early next






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