Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 292141

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
240 PM MST Wed Mar 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer today and Thursday under building high pressure
aloft. The next system will bring another chance of showers mainly
northeast of Tucson Friday through Sunday, along with strong and
gusty winds on Friday. A return to cooler temperatures Friday and
Saturday, then near normal early next week.


.DISCUSSION...Wrap around moisture across portions of Greenlee
county as yesterdays system continues to slowly move east across the
southern plains. Warmer this afternoon with temperatures up 5 to 10
degrees versus Tuesday afternoon while moderate pressure gradient
has been producing breezy NW winds across the area.

Warmer yet on Thursday as short wave ridge moves across the area.
Breezy to locally windy Thursday afternoon as westerly pressure
gradient tightens in advance of next weather system will is forecast
to move into Nevada tomorrow afternoon. Fire weather concerns are
addressed fire weather section below.

Pressure gradient continues to tighten Thursday night into Friday as
upper low moves into SW Utah and associated cold front sags SE
across the state. There are timing differences between the models on
moving the cold front across the area on Friday which will have an
effect on how warm it could get. In fact areas from Tucson west
likely will see the high on Thursday occurring right after midnight.
I did trim a few degrees on highs from Tucson west for Friday. On
the precip side, the ECMWF continues to show light QPF values in
advance of the cold front as it picks up some Gulf of California
moisture, kinda similar to what occurred early Tuesday morning. Not
saying will see a repeat but can`t rule out very light showers or
sprinkles. However the GFS, GFS ensembles and NAM not producing and
QPF across the area, except up in the whites. Will hedge on slight
chance PoPs in the mountains. Something the future shifts will
continue to monitor. Wind also a concern on Friday with the favored
areas S and SE of Tucson approaching wind advisory criteria. Could
start overnight across SW Cochise county as the winds will be
hollowing through the Huachuca mountains. Fire weather concerns for
Friday are addresses in the fire weather section below.

Upper low moving slowly through the 4 corners and northern New
Mexico Saturday/Saturday night with disturbances on back side of
system moving across the area which will keep conditions unsettled
from area mainly east of Tucson. Could see a few thunderstorms
develop over the White mountains Saturday afternoon. Cool northerly
flow will keep below normal high temperatures across the area.

Warmer Sunday as short wave ridge builds over the area. Gusty
afternoon winds once again on Tuesday as weather system move through
Utah into Colorado.


.AVIATION...Valid through 31/00Z.
SKC with few cirrus level clouds. Sfc wind NWLY at 8-16 kts with
gusts to 25 kts thru 30/03z, then becoming vrbl less than 12 kts
overnight into Thu am. Gusty SW winds in the forecast aft 30/18z.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Warmer Thursday along with an increase in southwest
winds in advance of next Pacific weather system. There will be
isolated areas across southern portions of fire weather zones 150,
151 and 152 that could see a few hours of red flag conditions.

As the next Pacific weather system approaches the area on Friday,
strong southwest winds are forecast to develop late Thursday night
into Friday. Red flag conditions are possible Friday afternoon
across southern half of fire weather zone 152 and far southeast
portions of fire weather zone 151. This system will also bring a
chance of showers mainly northeast of Tucson Friday through Sunday.





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