Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 030331
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
831 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK CIRCULATION MOVES INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS IN STORE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT SLOW-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGS MORE
INCLEMENT WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND MOST CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
240 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS MOVING FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO
NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DISORGANIZED AND SHORT LIVED AROUND IT. CELLS HAVE DISSIPATED
QUICKLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN CLARK AND
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. THE LATEST HIGH RES FORECASTS
INDICATE CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THEN
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY APPROACHING SUNSET.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS A RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS
THE WEST AHEAD OF A DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING 5-8 DEGREES FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL 3-5
DEGREES WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
SLIGHT CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN INYO AND ESMERALDA
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BEGIN WITH THE LARGE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW MEANDERING
EASTWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY, AS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. CHANCES SPREAD
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TO
SOUTHERN NEVADA. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
PUSHING THE LOW INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY,
THEN FINALLY INTO UTAH AND COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER, INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISHING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 6500-7000 FEET IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
EVEN WITH THE LOW EAST OF OUR AREA, MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY, BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT SETTLES INTO THE REGION. SO, THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COOLER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH READINGS SOME 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL THEN TREND WARMER MONDAY.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 8-10K FEET THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING TO A SOUTHWEST WIND AFTER 03Z. EXPECT SCT-
BKN HIGH CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING AFTER 15Z.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 8-10K FEET THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
SCT-BKN 6-8K FEET BKN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY UNDER
10KTS WITH SOME GUSTINESS AROUND ANY TSTORM. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS NEAR
SHOWERS. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOB 20K FEET ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS UNDER
10KTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MORGAN
SHORT TERM...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
AVIATION...CZYZYK

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