Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 291003
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
200 AM PST MON DEC 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. A STORM SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS...COLD TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN AND SNOW. PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT MAY EVEN SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOW NEW YEAR`S EVE DAY AND NEW YEAR`S DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE A FAST
MOVING WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH BY BRINGING SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ESMERALDA...CENTRAL NYE AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES. THE
LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTH ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. MANY LOCATIONS OVER
OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL NOT RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY EVENING THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY THE
MODELS HAVE SHOWN VERY LITTLE DEVIATION FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHEN IT
COMES TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW. THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE
EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY REAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM AND THE
NEW 00Z RUNS IS THE QPF OR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERATED BY THE
MODELS. THE LATEST RUNS ARE MUCH DRIER AND PW VALUES ARE DOWN FROM
EARLIER RUNS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE
ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WITH SOME WRAP AROUND INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...THE MOST IMPORTANT ASPECT OF THIS STORM
IS THE AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE OMEGA FIELDS
AND VORTICITY ALONE ARE VERY GOOD FOR GENERATING PRECIPITATION AND
THE 00Z TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG OMEGA AT OR JUST
ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THE BEST WINDOW IN LAS VEGAS FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN MID DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...SO SEEING SNOW FALLING ON THE STRIP FOR NEW YEARS EVE
LOOKS VERY GOOD. TEMPERATURES HAVE NEVER REALLY BEEN A CONCERN FOR
LOW ELEVATION SNOW AS SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY START AROUND 2500-3000
FEET AND THEN DROP TO AS LOW AS 1500 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW IS LIKELY TO HANG ON OVER
MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOW TRACKS FAR
ENOUGH EAST BY THURSDAY EVENING IN WHICH ALL SNOW SHOULD END. EXACT
SNOW TOTALS ARE STILL IN QUESTION...BUT MOHAVE COUNTY LOOKS TO SEE
THE MOST OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH LOWER AMOUNTS WEST. CURRENT WINTER
STORM PRODUCTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER CHILLY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS AT TIMES. TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND THE CONS MODELS. SUBFREEZING TEMPS WILL STILL BE A
POSSIBILITY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND THUS THE IMPACT ON PIPES AND COLD
SENSITIVE PLANTS WILL STILL LINGER. WE MAY BE TOO WARM IN SOME SPOTS
WITH TEMPS ESPECIALLY IF WE GET A DECENT SNOWPACK IN SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

OUR NEW YEAR`S SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING ARIZONA AND PUSHING THROUGH
NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA
BRINGING DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
MODERATE...BUT THE PROCESS WILL BE SLOW FOR THE LOWEST VALLEYS AS AN
INVERSION DEVELOPS. GIVEN THIS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER END
OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE A FEW STATS TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS WITH
RESPECT TO FREEZING TEMPS AND `COLD` TEMPS IN LAS VEGAS. ALL DATA IS
FOR THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATION AT MCCARRAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

* GREATEST NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH LOWS ABOVE FREEZING...

  1. 381 DAYS - DECEMBER 13, 2013 - DECEMBER 28, 2014...AS OF 137 AM
     DECEMBER 29 THE OFFICIAL TEMPERATURE AT MCCARRAN REACHED 32
     DEGREES ENDING THE STREAK AT 382 DAYS.
  2. 378 DAYS - DECEMBER 8, 2011 - DECEMBER 19, 2012

* LATEST OCCURRENCE OF THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON...

  RECORD: DECEMBER 29, 2014
  PREVIOUS RECORD: DECEMBER 20, 2012

* FEWEST NUMBER OF FREEZES IN DECEMBER...

  CURRENT RECORD: ONE DAY IN 2014, 1977 AND IN 2010

* FEWEST NUMBER OF DAYS AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES IN A CALENDAR YEAR...

  CURRENT RECORD: 2 DAYS IN 2005
  2014 TOTAL SO FAR THROUGH TODAY: 1 DAYS

  FYI...MEASURABLE SNOW FELL ON THE WEST SIDE OF LAS VEGAS ON
  JANUARY 7TH 2005 DESPITE NO FREEZES AT MCCARRAN IN JANUARY 2005.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. A COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT
TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AS RAIN AND SNOW
CHANCES INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT MCCARRAN
NEW YEAR`S EVE WITH CEILINGS POTENTIALLY BELOW 3 KFT AND VISIBILITY
BELOW 3 MILES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. WINDS
MAINLY FAVORING DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER STRONG WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING LOW CEILINGS AND LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. .SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PADDOCK

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