Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 182235

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
235 PM PST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A potent weather system will bring strong winds
through Monday. Much colder temperatures can be expected by Monday,
while snow showers are possible tonight and Monday mainly across
eastern Lincoln and northern Mohave Counties. Winds will decrease by
Tuesday, with chilly temperatures in place across the region through

.SHORT TERM...through Monday night. Winds have been picking up
across the area today as expected. Main change to the forecast today
was to change the timing of the strongest winds somewhat. New high
resolution models and MOS guidance agree on the peak winds occurring
this evening in the Sierra and Owens Valley, this evening and
tonight in the Spring Mountains and Las Vegas Valley, and persisting
overnight into Monday in areas southwest of Las Vegas. Much colder
air still expected Monday in the wake of the cold front, with highs
15 to 30 degrees colder than today. Precip chances will begin this
evening in the Sierra and northern Lincoln County, spread to much of
Lincoln and Mohave Counties as well as the Clark County mountains
Monday, then end from the west Monday night as the trough axis
reaches the Nevada/Utah border.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday.

An extended period of unsettled weather conditions is in store for
the region through the weekend and probably beyond. Persistent high
pressure over the eastern Pacific will leave the door open for
system after system diving out of the Gulf of Alaska and across the
western U.S. After we shake the residual effects of the
Sunday/Monday system, a weak weather disturbance passes to our south
Tuesday night followed closely on its heels by at least 3 more
systems between Wednesday and Sunday. Looking further out, models
forecast at least one more potent storm to begin the next work week.

Timing of any wave and its potential impacts will be difficult at
best in this progressive pattern but overall it is likely safe to
say we will see periods of stronger winds, reinforcing shots of cold
air, occasional cloud cover and elevated chances for precipitation.

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Strong south to southwest winds will
continue overnight, with gusts around 40 knots expected overnight
into Monday morning. A slug of low clouds could also bring ceilings
down to near 050 for a few hours in the early morning before
scattering out. Winds will gradually veer around to westerly Monday,
with gusts decreasing to 25-30 knots. Winds will veer to northerly
on Tuesday with speeds decreasing further.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Very strong west to southwest winds are expected this
afternoon and evening, especially just east of the Sierra and Spring
Mountains, with associated rotors and extreme turbulence. A cold
front will pass through the southern Great Basin this evening and
slowly make its way through the Mojave Desert Monday, with winds
turning northerly and decreasing in speed behind the front. Snow and
low elevation rain are expected in the higher terrain of the
southern Great Basin, as well as the Clark County mountains and much
of Mohave County tonight through Monday night, with associated
terrain obscuration.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Strong winds are expected today
through Monday. Spotters are encouraged to report any significant
weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.


LONG TERM...Salmen

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