Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 210910 AAA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
215 AM PDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Cool conditions expected Saturday along with some gusty
northerly winds down the Colorado River Valley. Temperatures will
return to near normal Sunday and climb next week into above normal
territory under a building ridge of high pressure. Conditions
through next week look to remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Tuesday Night.

Cold frontal passage overnight will leave cool and
breezy conditions in its wake, with afternoon highs across the region
averaging 5 to 10 degrees below average. Gusty north winds will
linger down the Colorado River Valley which has prompted a Lake Wind
Advisory through this afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions are
expected for the weekend with temperatures beginning to rebound as
early as Sunday as high pressure builds back across the Southwest.
Temperatures will return to near normal Sunday and climb into above
normal territory Monday through Midweek as a very large and strong
ridge of high pressure dominates the western states.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Friday.

With strong high pressure building out in the eastern Pacific,
shortwave energy over British Columbia on Wednesday is directed
southward through the Pacific NW and Great Basin Wednesday night and
Thursday. The more amplified ECMWF solution forecasts a jacked up
version of this feature and would bring a strong cold front across
the area with strong north winds and cooler temperatures late
Thursday into Friday and possibly lingering into the beginning of
the weekend. While the GFS agrees with strong high pressure off the
Pacific NW coast, it is much weaker down stream and the associated
weather would be less impactful. The Canadian solution would keep
weather across the area warm and dry with light wind. The GFS
ensemble shows a wild variety of solutions with high confidence in
strong high pressure building off the Pacific NW coast but very low
to no confidence in potential weather over the western U.S. The
uncertainty is confirmed in MOS guidance with temperatures for the
end of the week ranging from 10 degrees above to 10 degrees below
normal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty north winds and low humidity
values combined with critical fuel levels will lead Red Flag
conditions this afternoon for the Colorado River Valley zones.
Improving conditions are expected Sunday and into next week as winds
decrease, but conditions will remain quite dry.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Breezy north winds can be expected
through the morning hours with occasional gusts in the 15-20 knot
range. Winds will decrease by late morning and take on more typical
diurnal wind speed and directions, favoring light east or northeast
directions in the afternoon, and a return to west or southwest wind
directions after sunset. Skies will be mostly clear.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy north or northwest winds can be expected through
the morning hours for much of the region before becoming lighter
during the afternoon under mostly clear skies. Exception will be
along the Colorado River Valley near KIFP and KEED where gusts in
the 20-30 knot range will linger well into the afternoon hours.  &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Outler
LONG TERM....Salmen

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