Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KVEF 092118
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
218 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MONSOON
MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LIMITED TO MOHAVE COUNTY BY FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS STRETCHED FROM ROUGHLY
LAS VEGAS SOUTHWARD TOWARD ESSEX...BUT ARE DISSIPATING. THIS AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAVE LIMITED TEMPS AND WILL ALSO LIMIT
CONVECTION A BIT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM INYO EASTWARD TO NORTHERN MOHAVE. THESE AREAS
ARE THE LIKELY SUSPECTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THERE IS
SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST. SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS MAY WORK TO LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND FORCE NEW CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH
WILL BE SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...WHERE
A REMNANT MCV FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT IS NOTICEABLE SPINNING ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FORCING
ACROSS THAT AREA WHERE DEWPOINTS AND PWS ARE ELEVATED...BUT SO FAR
THINGS ARE FAIRLY QUIET DOWN THERE.

RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS PROJECTED TO
GRADUALLY PUSH EAST AND NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO
BE A LITTLE TOO EAGER TO PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT...BUT EVENTUALLY THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME DRY. THE ONLY POPS WE
HAVE GOING FRIDAY ARE MAINLY ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY. HAVE CONTINUED TO
BACK DOWN THE POPS ACROSS THAT AREA AS SOME MODELS THAT ORIGINALLY
LINGERED THE MOISTURE ARE NOW COMING IN DRY WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
SO FRIDAY MAY BE DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
THAT ISOLATED CHANCE ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
SHIFTS EAST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE
AREA BY SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT MONSOON MOISTURE WILL FILTER BACK
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING A BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE IN HERE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN DECREASING A BIT WEDNESDAY. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN BACKED DOWN A LITTLE FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL LEFT THE
WESTERN DESERTS DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY VERY WELL
CHANGE IN COMING FORECASTS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS DRY AIR WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH
107-110 IN THE LAS VEGAS AREA AND ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
SUNDAY...WHILE LOWER 120S IN DEATH VALLEY WILL BE COMMON. AS
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...TEMPS
WILL TREND COOLER. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT
WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE LAST FEW DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS AFTER ABOUT 23Z.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOW. BKN-OVC CLOUDS ABOVE 15 KFT SHOULD SLOWLY SCATTER OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE AREA AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST IN ARIZONA BUT A
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT AT THE TERMINAL THIS
EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND
IN EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES IN CALIFORNIA.
MAYBE GENERALLY OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT THE REST OF TONIGHT. STORMS
WILL LEAD TO GUSTY ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION: PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.