Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 280428 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
930 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STARTING TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST AND BRING A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT OF CLOUD
COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD HOVER CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...ANOTHER QUIET EVENING ON TAP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS AERA WIDE. NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.
&&


PREV DISCUSSION
230 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

COOLER AIR ON BACKSIDE OF STRONG TROUGH EVIDENT BY 24 HOUR
TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES AT TONOPAH AND ELY. COOL
DOWN NOT AS DRAMATIC FURTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE MOJAVE
DESERT WHERE READINGS ARE 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

STRONG TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY LEAVING WEAK TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. MONSOON MOISTURE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
CREEP WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH ANY DAYTIME
CONVECTION STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF MOHAVE COUNTY TUESDAY. AS HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS WESTWARD AN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO SPREAD FURTHER WESTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES. THE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS FOR TRIGGERS, BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW AN IMPULSE MOVING AROUND THE HIGH FROM SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
MAY BE MODEL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RATHER THAN AN IMPULSE SO
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FEATURE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HIGH WILL STAY CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING
THAT TIME FRAME, YET THE TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE. AS
WE GET INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNS
THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE REGION. SO, EXPECT SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE RETURNING. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
AND HOW QUICKLY IT SPREADS WEST AND NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, THE TIMING OF SUCH
ACTIVITY, AND EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL CONTINUE WITH NEAR NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS, AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD WREAK HAVOC
WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST
TO EAST WIND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 8 KTS OR LESS. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA OVERNIGHT
WHILE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS FAVORED ACROSS ENTIRE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR. ITS LOOKING LESS LIKELY BUT
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMOKE TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN
OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT FROM THE WILLOW FIRE WHICH IS
ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF BISHOP.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

$$

GORELOW/PIERCE

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