Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 260604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...A GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 28N82W TO 18.5N92W. GALE-FORCE
NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10 TO 14 FEET ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 95W. GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO 11 FEET ARE WITHIN 60 NM
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT FROM 23N TO 27N. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20
TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF
THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...A GALE WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE 12-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
31N79W TO 28N80W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT
TO 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W...
CURVING THROUGH 10N18W AND 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W
TO 8N30W 8N43W...CURVING TO 5N52W AT THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N
BETWEEN 10W AND 12W..AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N24W
9N26W 10N29W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
FROM THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN TO THE WEST CENTRAL
COASTAL PLAINS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1011
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
31N78W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO 22N86W...TO 16N90W IN GUATEMALA.
CLEAR SKIES ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
29N90W TO 25N93W 23N98W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE SPAN THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.14 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.06 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N73W IN COLOMBIA...CURVING TO
EASTERN PANAMA...THROUGH 10N80W...AND BEYOND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 85W ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA
RICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS
PASSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUNTA CANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO.
SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WITH A RIDGE FOR MOST OF THE 48 HOURS WILL BE REPLACED BY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH A TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...
WITH A RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-
TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL LAST FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS. NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WITH AN APPROACHING INVERTED TROUGH
WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
CROSSES HISPANIOLA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 32N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND
90W...INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 20N48W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND
60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N44W 24N46W 20N47W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N
TO 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N70W...TO ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...TO
17N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE
NORTH OF COASTAL HONDURAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 23N25W...AND TO THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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