Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 132332
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N27W TO 10N31W TO 06N32W MOVING W
AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-
12N BETWEEN 27W-33W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N56W TO 08N57W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER
INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION N OF 12N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS HOWEVER E OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N86W TO
10N86W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON THE SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 82W-87W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM S MEXICO AT 19N95W TO THE E PACIFIC
AT 08N99W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER S MEXICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 93W-98W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
10N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N22W TO 10N29W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM
10N32W TO 08N40W TO 10N55W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 10N58W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST AT 9N61W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 12W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 92W-96W...AND FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 85W-
88W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER S MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SEE ABOVE. EVENING AIRMASS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE N GULF E OF E TEXAS AT 96W...OVER
FLORIDA...AND OVER W CUBA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING
CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HOUSTON TEXAS AT 30N95W
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. RARE EASTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TO
MOVE W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. 10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S
OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES...EVENING AIRMASS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA...COSTA
RICA...PANAMA...AND N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA AT 22N83W ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND. WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 75W.

...HISPANIOLA...

EVENING AIRMASS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A LESSER PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC N OF
24N W OF 76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF PUERTO RICO FROM 26N64W
TO 21N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 58W-64W. A LARGE 1028 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N50W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
24N63W ENHANCING CONVECTION. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W AND LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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