Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 301744

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.


As of 30/1500 UTC, a 984 mb storm low is centered over the
central Atlantic near 35N49W. Further S in forecast waters, S of
31N, gale force winds are occurring from 29N-31N between 44W-
52W. Gale force winds are forecast to be below gale, in forecast
waters, on 30/1800 UTC. Please see the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
06N18W to 02S22W. The ITCZ extends from 02S22W to the South
American coast near 04S39W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is S of the monsoon trough from 01S-08N
between 11W-22W.



As of 30/1500 UTC, a squall line extends from SE Louisiana near
30N90W to the NW Gulf of Mexico near 27N94W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 45 nm of the squall line. A cold front is W
of the squall line, from 30N92W to 23N98W, moving E. 20-25 kt N
winds are N of the front. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico
has 10-20 kt SE to S surface flow. In the upper levels, an upper
level trough is inland over New Mexico and Texas supporting the
surface front. An upper level ridge is over the Gulf of Mexico
with axis along 80W. Strong subsidence is over most of the Gulf,
while upper level moisture is over the front. Expect in 24 hours
for the cold front to extend from Tallahassee Florida to the Bay
of Campeche near 19N93W, with convection.


As of 30/1500 UTC, the tail end of a dissipating cold front is
over the Leeward Islands from 17N60W to 15N65W. Scattered
showers are within 30 nm of the front. The remainder of the
Caribbean Sea has a relatively lax surface pressure gradient
with 10-20 kt tradewinds. Strongest winds are over the NW
Caribbean. Scattered showers are over the NE Caribbean from 14N-
18N between 60W-74W, moving W within the tradewind flow. In the
upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with axis along 80W.
Upper level moisture is over the Windward Islands, and strong
subsidence is elsewhere. Expect in 12 hours for the surface
front to be E of the Leeward Islands. Also expect the surface
moisture over the NE Caribbean to move W towards the central
Caribbean within the tradewind flow.


Presently mostly fair weather is over Hispaniola. Expect in 24
hours for Hispaniola to have scattered showers S of the island
within the tradewind flow. Dry and stable air is noted aloft.


A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N59W to 26N70W.
Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the front. Further E,
another cold front associated with the special feature storm low
above, enters the forecast waters near 31N44W and continues to
23N50W to the Leeward Islands near 17N60W. Isolated moderate
convection is within 180 nm E of front, N of 23N. Scattered
showers are elsewhere within 30 nm of the front. A 1024 mb high
is centered over the E Atlantic near 31N23W. In the tropics, a
surface trough extends along the coast of French Guiana from
07N51W to 02N51W, moving W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
of the trough. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level
trough is over the central Atlantic N of 20N between 40W-65W
supporting the surface fronts. Expect over the next 24 hours for
both fronts to move E with convection.

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