Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271514
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO
14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT RANGE. A LARGE AREA OF N-
NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM
16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE SWELLS THAT
HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-14N
BETWEEN 94W-100W...AND ALSO S OF 10N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
HIGH PRES CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL
THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND 13 FT AT
THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NE 20-
25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY LATE TONIGHT AND
TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY THU WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 10
FT AT THAT TIME. THE GALE SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W TO 5N80W TO 5N90W. ITCZ FROM
5N90W TO 7N110W TO 6N120W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-5N E OF 80W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 13N120W. A 95-120 KT JETSTREAM ON THE W
SIDE OF THE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA AT 28N140W TO 14N127W. AN 95-
100 KT JET IS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N120W TO
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE
TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO N OF 15N. IN THE DEEP
TROPICS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 1N97W.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 23N140W.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALONG FRONT. NLY WINDS 15-20 KT ARE
W OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH 9 FT NW SWELL. OTHERWISE 8 FT NW SWELL
ARE NW OF A LINE FROM 32N1136W TO 18N140W. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE WED...AND WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THE 8 FT.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF
OF PANAMA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED. THEN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9
FT THU.

$$
DGS


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