Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302144
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS AT THE SOUTHERN END OF A
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 121W/122W...ALONG 11N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 07N TO 11N
BETWEEN 116W AND 122W. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN THAT
IS AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
SUPPORT A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 101W/102W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD WESTWARD
15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD AN
AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...THAT IS
MOVING AROUND A 21N112W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 101W
AND 105W FROM 30/1000 UTC UNTIL 30/1400 UTC. THE PATTERN OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY BECAME STRETCHED OUT...LESS
CONCENTRATED IN ONE AREA. SCATTERED STRONG NOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 104W AND 109W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER
NEAR 07N78W...ACROSS PANAMA NEAR 08N81W TO 09N87W...TO
08N103W...TO THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE
121W/122W TROPICAL WAVE...TO A SECOND 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N132W...BEYOND 13N140W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 84W AND
87W...AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 111W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 89W AND
100W...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W...AND FROM 07N TO
15N BETWEEN 131W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF HERNAN IS A 1014 MB LOW NEAR
25N124W. THE SEA HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BE 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
THE LOW CENTER...EVEN THOUGH THE WIND SPEEDS ARE LESS THAN 20
KNOTS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA THAT IS FROM 10N NORTHWARD FROM 130W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N124W 20N127W. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVER
THE AREA THAT IS FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N125W 22N128W 16N136W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N112W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN
100W AND 120W.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
11N132W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 131W AND 140W.

THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 15N140W FOR THE
30/1605 UTC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NOW IS OUTSIDE THE AREA
JUST TO THE WEST OF 140W.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
FROM 09N TO 12N FROM 81W EASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOW DOWN TO
LESS THAN 20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
THURSDAY...THE WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL SLOW DOWN AGAIN BY SUNSET ON THURSDAY...AND RETURN
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY FRIDAY MORNING SUNRISE.

$$ MT



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