Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292115
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N-08N E OF 86W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N WITHIN 180 NM W OF WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W FROM 06N-12N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 127W FROM 07N-14N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 12N-13N WITHIN 90 NM OF WAVE AXIS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FROM 10N85W TO 07N90W TO 07N96W.
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N96W TO 09N104W TO 07N122W TO 08N131W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED NEAR WHERE A STRING OF WEAK TROPICAL
WAVES INTERSECT THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N123W EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE
TROUGH ENHANCING SHOWERS ALONG THE SONORAN COAST OF NW MEXICO.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS FROM A 1025
MB STATIONARY HIGH NEAR 32N139W TO 22N121W. SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOWS AN AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR
16N132W...BUT OTHERWISE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER
MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WED...EXCEPT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS MENTIONED BELOW.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED STARTING
TUE MORNING E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 82W...WITH 20-
25 KT WINDS FORECAST TO REACHING NEAR 94W EARLY WED MORNING. MAX
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT FROM E-NE WIND WAVES AND CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL.

$$
MUNDELL



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