Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300254
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

ANDRES...THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON...IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 115.2W AT 30/0300 UTC
MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 75 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS IN A BAND WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 13N114W TO
11N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W. SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS ALSO NOTED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO THE
HURRICANE. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES COULD IMPACT THE COAST OF
MEXICO BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND LOS CABOS BY SAT EVENING
SPREADING ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUN. REFER TO
LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP1/ MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 15N ALONG 101W. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE
ANDRES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WAS EXHIBITING SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE. STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE ARE EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT THEY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 10N138W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE NW OF THE CENTER
AND MAINLY FROM 10N TO 12N W OF 138W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE W-SW AROUND 10 KT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS CROSSING 140W ON
SUN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE N WATERS. THE RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN AND SHIFT WEST AHEAD OF ANDRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SE. THE CENTER OF ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO
PASS WITHIN AROUND 240 NM SW OF CLARION ISLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR CLARION ITSELF TO REMAIN OUTSIDE
OF THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...BUT WILL SEE 20 TO
30 KT BY SUNDAY WITH SEAS OF 12-14 FT. FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH LOWER PRES IN THE
DEEP TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG
GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT
WITH SEAS TO 7-8 FT. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS
TO 25-30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY MON MORNING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL LOW IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF NE-E 20 TO
25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 134W WITH COMBINED SEAS
TO 9 FT.

A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO BEYOND 26N140W. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY ON SAT EXTENDING FROM 30N134W TO 25N140W BY SAT
NIGHT. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

$$
GR



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