Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220908
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
506 UTC Wed Feb 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...Overnight ASCAT pass confirms
gale force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will
diminish rapidly today, below gale force early this morning and
then to 20 kt or less by this evening.

Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for additional details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

There is no ITCZ over the forecast waters north of the equator.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale
force gap wind event.

Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the pressure gradient has
tightened between building high pressure west of the Baja
California peninsula and a trough over western Mexico. Fresh to
strong winds prevail off the coast of Baja California Norte and
the central and southern portion of the Gulf of California.
Elsewhere winds are below advisory criteria. Seas are in the 7-9
ft range in northwest swell over the offshore waters off the
coast of Baja California, 4-6 ft over the southern half of the
Gulf of California, 1-3 ft over the northern Gulf of California,
and 5-7 ft off southwest Mexico. The tight pressure gradient will
maintain fresh to strong winds west of the Baja California
peninsula through early Friday. The area of high pressure west of
the area will weaken by weeks end and winds will diminish below
advisory criteria. The northwesterly swell will propagate
southeast over the next few days maintaining seas greater than 8
ft off the coast of Baja California. Seas are expected to subside
below 8 ft by Friday night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds will prevail through Saturday. Winds will
freshen off the coast of Central America Saturday night into
Sunday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Subsiding northwesterly swell continues to propagate across the
forecast waters, with seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the
forecast waters north of 10N and west of 120W. Areal coverage of
seas greater than 8 ft will continue to decrease through the
week. By Friday seas will subside below 8 ft over much of the
forecast area, except over the northwest waters due to the
arrival of a cold front which will usher in a fresh set of
northwesterly swell. Combined seas with this swell will peak near
13 ft Saturday night over the northwest waters. Strong to near
gale winds are expected both ahead of, and behind, the front as
it shifts across the northern waters this weekend.

$$
AL


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