Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012126
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JIMENA HAS SHIFTED W OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 140.8W AT 2100 UTC SEP 01.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE STILL AFFECTING A SMALL PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 50 NM NE QUADRANT OF JIMENA WITH TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 140
NM SE QUADRANTS. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT ARE FOUND OVER
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 260 NM E SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO JIMENA WAS NOTED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 138W AND 140W. JIMENA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER FROM THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED
CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W WITH THE SYSTEM. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY SHIFT W OF 140W THIS EVENING WHILE TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W OF 140W BY WED. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCPCP4/WTPA34 KNHC FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 114.2W AT
2100 UTC...MOVING NW 320 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1006 MB.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM
SE SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY THIS EVENING AND INTENSIFY
FURTHER TO 40 KT WED. IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FRI AS IT
ENCOUNTERS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER WATERS WHILE
MOVING FURTHER NORTH. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO 09N84W TO 11N93W TO
09N100W TO 11N104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED N OF 03N E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND
102W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 42N155W
EXTENDS RIDGE SE TO NEAR 22N114W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
FOUND OVER THE AREA OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF JIMENA AND TD
FOURTEEN-E. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHERN WATERS CURRENTLY FOUND S OF 01N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W.
BY THU SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL BE FOUND S OF 04N BETWEEN
100W AND 132W.

$$
AL


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