Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 212231
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
531 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT OR CALM
WINDS. HAVE PATCHY FOG FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 12Z SINCE THERE WAS SOME IN
MINNESOTA UNDER THE HIGH LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. 12Z
NAM MOS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM SO EITHER SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE OR
WENT WITH THE COLDER 12Z GFS MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT A LITTLE
WARMER FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SO THERE SHOULD STILL
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WEAK SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY AT INLAND LOCATIONS...HIGHS NEAR
THE LAKE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PCPN TRENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BAND (PWATS OF 1+ INCH)
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION FROM LATE WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG.
HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING A LITTLE TO MATCH THE LATEST MODEL CONCENSUS...
AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ON THU AND THU EVG.

WNW ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NGT...
ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ON SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. DRY CONDIITONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER C/NE WI...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S CONTINUING.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NW OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVG THROUGH WI. A
SECOND SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY ON MON NGT
OR TUESDAY...AS THE SHARPENING UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND
BRINGS A DEEPENING LOW THROUGH NE WI ON TUES MORNING. GIVEN
SIGNIFICANT MODELS DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PERIOD...HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREFERRED MODEL BLEND FOR POPS...WITH ONLY SLGT
CHC/CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR NOW. MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH MUCH COOLER AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 531 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH






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