Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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247
FXUS63 KGRB 311937
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
237 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

As of mid afternoon, a warm front extended from central Minnesota
southeast into far southwest Wisconsin and then into northern
Illinois.

For tonight, showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
area as a warm front pushes slowly northward. Northern Wisconsin
will be in the right front entrance region of a 90 knot jet streak
(NAM) moving across the western Great Lakes region. Steep mid level
lapse rates around 6 c/km noted, along with increasing 0-6 km
shear values of 35 to 50 knots. A few of the storms could become
strong or severe, especially north and west of the Fox Valley
tonight. Did not stray far from guidance for lows tonight.

For later tonight, the showers and thunderstorms will gradually
shift east of the area Wednesday morning. Cold front expected to
move into northeast and east-central Wisconsin. If we can break
out of the clouds later in the day, some of the storms could
become strong with isolated severe storms possible across this
region. Leaned toward the warmer guidance for highs on Wednesday
expecting a little more sun in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Lingering convection to end over eastern Wisconsin Wednesday
evening as a cold front shifts east of the area. Weak cyclonic
flow over Lake Superior may keep clouds around into thursday.
A few showers possible far north, but the chance is so small will
go with a dry forecast. Otherwise dry weather expected through
Thursday night as a weak upper ridge and surface high drifts over
the area.

However an amplifying upper ridge sets up over the western
states, resulting with a downstream northwest flow over the Great
Lakes region late this week. Progs continue to focus on a
deepening shortwave trough approaching the western Great Lakes
region Friday night, then slowly track over the area for the
weekend. Latest trends suggests this upper low system may linger
into part of monday. The cyclonic flow will tend to keep clouds
and showers around for at least northeast Wisconsin. The western
states ridge flattens to some degree for next tuesday with a
surface ridge passing over the upper midwest. After the departure
of the upper low early Monday...quiet weather expected until
another another Northern Plains frontal system approaches by mid
week.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 104 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

As of early afternoon, a warm front extended from central
Minnesota into far southwest Wisconsin into northern Illinois. As
the warm front lifts northward tonight, showers and thunderstorms
are expected along the front. Some of the stronger storms storms
could produce hail, gusty winds and torrential rainfall. The round
of showers and thunderstorms will exit northeast Wisconsin
Wednesday morning. Later Wednesday afternoon, a cold front will
move across northeast Wisconsin. The front may trigger a
redevelopment of storms across northeast and east-central
Wisconsin. Some of these storms could become strong or severe.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Eckberg
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......Eckberg



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