795
FXUS63 KMPX 111131
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
631 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe/extreme geomagnetic storm continues this weekend, but
  increased mid level cloud cover will make viewing tonight a
  little more difficult than early this morning.

- Sunny and warm spring weather this weekend with highs in the
  70s today and 80s on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

The G5/G4 geomagnetic storm has produced incredible displays of
the northern lights all the way down into south Florida overnight.
That is incredible. Most of the nation is experiencing clear
skies early this morning, but satellite features mid level
clouds beginning to sink south to the US/Canadian border. Some
increase will occur during the day and could obscure round two
of the northern lights tonight.

Synoptically-speaking, a system will traverse southern Canada
this weekend and bring a warm front through later today. Highs
today will be similar to Friday`s, but could touch 80 over
western MN where the warm front should reach this afternoon. Dew
points will remain low and RH is expected to drop into the 20s,
setting up another elevated fire weather day. Winds will be
light, so not expecting critical conditions. A cold front will
approach central MN midday on Sunday while thermal ridging
encompasses the region. 925 mb temps on the order of +22 to +25C
signal highs in the mid to upper 80s are appearing likely.
Despite higher dew points, the warmer temperatures will result
in RH dropping into the 20s again. Even with that, some uncapped
surface-based instability should form in the afternoon ahead of
the front. A few storms could develop across southern MN and WI
late int he day and linger into the early evening before the
front clears to the south.

Cooler air will follow for most of next week. A short wave will
push across the northern U.S. midweek and bring increased PoPs.
Rain amounts will remain light. Predictability decreases late
week, but the existence of several weak waves could bring
chances for periodic showers.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Clear skies this morning, then some mid level clouds increase
this afternoon. Light westerly winds shift south this evening.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind W 10-15G25kts BCMG N 10-15kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NNE 10-15kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind E at 5-10kts

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff