Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 302015
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ITS A CLASSIC FALL DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH GRAY SKIES AND
NORTH WINDS THAT ARE STARTING TO KICK UP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
TWO SFC LOWS...ONE OVER NRN MO AND THE OTHER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...
WITH A COLD FRONT JUST CLEARING ROCHESTER AND EAU CLAIRE AT 3 PM.
BEHIND THIS FRONT THERE IS A 1036MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WRN MN AS A
1039MB HIGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE LAST SEVERAL FORECASTS HAVE
MENTIONED...THIS WILL BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS
FAR...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C BY 12Z FRIDAY. WE ARE
SEEING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF BOTH THE DYNAMIC /SEE LARGE POSITIVE
OMEGA VALUES/ AND ISENTROPIC VARIETY...WHICH WAS RESULTING IN A
BREAK IN THE STRATUS DECK THAT IS ALREADY MOVING INTO NE NODAK AND
NW MN. THIS CLEARING WILL WORK ACROSS THE MPX AREA OVERNIGHT. DID
NOT CHANGE LOWS MUCH TONIGHT AND WAS HESITANT TO GO ANY LOWER THAN
WHAT THE EXISTING FORECAST HAD FOR LOWS MAINLY BECAUSE WE HAVE SPENT
MOST OF THE DAY SLOWING DOWN THE DRYING OF DEWPOINTS. GIVEN THE
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR...THINK THE MAV/MET WITH THEIR UPPER
TEEN LOWS FOR TONIGHT IN WEST CENTRAL MN ARE A BIT OVERDONE...THOUGH
STILL HAVE LOWS FORECAST IN THE LOW 20S...WITH EVERYONE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE 20S TONIGHT.

BESIDE THE CLOUDS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES IN CAA AS
RESULTED IN A FEW SPRINKLES FALLING FROM TIME TO TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THOSE REPORTS HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN...AND FOR THE MOST PART HAVEN`T BEEN HARD ENOUGH TO EVEN
REQUIRE THE USE OF WIND SHIELD WIPERS. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED
GOING FORECAST WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING LINGERING
ACROSS ERN AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING...BASICALLY ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE CAA AND OUT AHEAD OF THE WRN TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE
WORKING ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES.

FOR TOMORROW...AIRMASS COMING IN WILL BE VERY DRY...SO WE WILL HAVE
CLEAR SKIES. 1KM MIXED LAYER DEWPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE
NAM/GFS...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE A FEW POCKETS HAVE
DEWPS MIX INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE FOR JUST 40 TOMORROW...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT
BIAS CORRECTED HIGHS LOOK LIKE. FAVORED THE BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS
AS IN THIS RECENT SPELL OF DRIER WEATHER WE HAVE RUN A BIT OF COOL
BIAS FOR FULL SUN DAYS. THERE IS A BRIGHT SPOT /BESIDE THE FULL
SUNSHINE/ FOR THE WEATHER TOMORROW AND IT IS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE MORE OR LESS CENTERED OVER THE MPX CWA. WILL STILL SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING OVER WI...BUT BY THE
AFTERNOON...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BACK DOWN UNDER 10 MPH...SO AT LEAST
WE WILL NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE BLUSTERY WINDS AFTER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COLD HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS WILL PROMOTE LIGHT WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  SHOULD SEE FIRST REAL WIDESPREAD
HAD FREEZE THEN. THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY ALLOWING
FALLING SURFACE PRESSURE TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ALONG WITH
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO WESTERN MN. THIS SHOULD
INCREASE THE WIND MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.  THIS WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR SATURDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DOESNT
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRODUCER AS MODELS SUGGEST
MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE
SPLIT FLOW NATURE TO THE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
THE CHANCE POP TRENDS FOR NOW AND SEE IF MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT TO THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FAST MOVING FRONTS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  THE NEXT ONE IS
FORECAST TO BE MOVE IN AROUND WEDNESDAY.  WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS TRENDING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD IS HOW LOW WILL CIGS GO THE
AFTN/EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MVFR CIGS NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ABOUT GRANITE FALLS UP TO DULUTH. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IMPACTING THE MPX TERMINALS...STARTED TO SHY
AWAY FROM THERE BEING MUCH MVFR CIGS...INSTEAD KEEPING MOST
TERMINALS LOW END VFR WITH A TEMPO MVFR. STARTING TO SEE SOME
STRONG CLEARING IN SUBSIDENCE REGION OVER SRN MANITOBA...SO LIKE
THE CLEARING TREND IN THE 12Z TAFS AND KEPT THAT MORE OR LESS
UNCHANGED. ONLY PLACE THAT MAY HAVE LINGERING CLOUD ISSUES INTO
THE MORNING IS EAU...AS THEY WILL HAVE A LOW LEVEL WIND FEED
COMING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...SO THEY COULD SEE STRATOCU LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED
BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO MN
FRIDAY MORNING...SO WE WILL SEE WINDS DROP OFF PRETTY QUICK LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS MN. HAVE KEPT ALL TAFS DRY...BUT
WE ARE SEEING AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE COMING DOWN WITH THE CLOUD
COVER COMING IN...THOUGH REPORTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY SPARSE...SO HAVE
KEPT TERMINALS DRY.

KMSP...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...THOUGH SOME
TEMPORARY CIGS DOWN TO 020 WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY BETWEEN 22Z
AND 00Z. EXISTING TAF LOOKED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
WINDS...SO MADE FEW CHANGES WITH THEM. FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL SEE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING...SO LOOKS GOOD FOR MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER NORTH WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 12-18 KTS.
MON...CHC MVFR CIGS. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG








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