Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 312319
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
719 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

An upper low SE of James Bay is keeping upper troughing over the
region, along with 850mb temps around 7-8C. Low level flow is steady
out of the N between a SFC tough well to the SE and a SFC high
moving across southern Canada. Had some waterspouts off Marquette
earlier as the SFC trough axis moved through, but that is no longer
a concern today as the convergent axis is inland. Only a few very
light sprinkles left around the north-central this afternoon and
expect that to spread to the western U.P. tonight into Thu morning
as the upper trough axis moves through and drops 850mb temps down to
around 6C. The SFC high will move over the CWA by 00Z Fri, which
will diminish any rain showers by Thu afternoon and clouds by Thu
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

A slow moving upr rdg/sfc hi pres wl bring dry wx to Upr MI late
this week thru at least the first half of the upcoming Labor Day
weekend. Thu ngt wl be quite chilly with light winds/moclr skies
under the hi pres/dry airmass, but there wl then be a warming trend
as the hi shifts to the E and a strengthening SW flow on its wrn
flank dvlps. Shower/TS chcs wl grdly incrs later this weekend as the
SW flow taps moister air and a cold fnt slowly aprchs. Heavy rain
could impact the area at some time early next week as the slow
moving fnt grdly shifts thru the Wrn Great Lks.

Thu ngt thru Sat...The upr rdg axis in the Plains at 00Z Fri is fcst
to build slowly to the E, reaching a line from the Great Lakes to
James Bay by late Sat. Sfc hi pres wl also follow to the E and bring
a period of dry wx/moclr skies to Upr MI during this time. With pwat
as lo as about 0.50 inch and light winds directly under the sfc rdg
axis, Thu ngt wl be a cool one, especially over the interior W half
where llvl winds wl be lightest/pwat lowest. Wl follow previous fcst
toward the lo end of guidance well into the 30s and mention some
frost in that area. Expect a sharp diurnal recovery of temps on Fri
aftn under a mosunny sky. H85 temps fcst near 12C by 00Z Sat wl
support max temps well into the 70s away fm lk moderation. Since the
sfc hi wl shift to the E on Fri ngt and allow a steady SW wind, Sat
mrng wl be warmer than on Fri especially in the downslope areas near
Lk Sup over the W half. But min temps should still fall into the 40s
across the interior Scentral and E thanks to a bit weaker pres
gradient/lighter h925 winds over that area closer to the departing
sfc hi pres/pwat still aob 0.50 inch. As the continued SW flow/
subsidence lifts h85 temps to arnd 15C on Sat, expect temps to rise
as hi as the lo 80s under a good deal of sunshine and away fm lk
moderation, mainly downwind of Lk MI.

Sat ngt/Sun...The upr pattern over NAmerica is fcst to incrs in
amplitude during this time, with deepening trof over the W and bldg
upr rdg fm the Lower MS River Valley to Hudson Bay/Quebec. With this
hier amplitude flow and hier hgts/drier mid lvl air/more expansive
sfc hi pres and acyc SW flow across the wrn Great Lks, consensus of
the medium range guidance has slowed the progression toward the cwa
of the cold fnt/accompanying pcpn associated with shrtwvs riding
NEwd thru the SW flow aloft btwn the major upr features. Under these
circumstances, expect Sat ngt and Sun to be dry except over far wrn
Lk Sup. Despite the drier mid lvl air, a steadier SW flow on Sat ngt
wl limit the diurnal temp fall. Although some hi clds wl invade the
area on Sun, especially over the W, h85 temps arnd 15C wl still
support max temps arnd 80 at some of the downslope locations away fm
Lk MI moderation.

Sun ngt thru Wed...The upr trof over the W/sfc cold fnt are fcst to
shift only slowly to the E. But as the steady SW llvl flow advects
moister air into the wrn Great Lks and the sfc cold fnt edges slowly
toward the area under grdly falling h5 hgts/shrtwvs passing in the
SW flow alf, incrsg shower/TS chcs wl grdly overspread the area. The
latest WPC manual progs indicate the fnt should reach Wrn Upr MI Tue
ngt and then move slowly acrs the area on Wed. This setup with a
slow moving fnt under a nearly parallel SW flow alf that would allow
waves of lo pres to ride along the bndry in the presence of pwat in
the 1.5-2.0 inch range suggests the potential for heavy rain. In
fact, the Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook indicates west/central Upr MI
could see some heavy rain late in the Holiday weekend thru Tue.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 719 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

Lowest CIGs are expected late tonight and Thu morning as an upper
trough brings additional moisture and turns winds out of the NE,
leading up upslope flow. Worst conditions expected at KSAW and KIWD.
All sites will go to VFR Thu morning with mixing taking place.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 348 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

Cooler air arriving will result in stronger north to northwest winds
up to 20 kts this evening into Thu. Winds will diminish on Thu
afternoon and evening and expect winds through the rest of the
forecast period to be 20 kts or less.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005-
     006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...Titus



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