Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 030816
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
416 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN MANITOBA INTO
THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO NRN
MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY HAS BROUGHT LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE TO UPPER
MI WITH INLAND CU INLAND WEST AND NEAR LAKE MI OVER THE EAST.

TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE SE LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NRN ONTARIO. ADVANCING WAA MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING FROM DEVELOPING SW
GRADIENT WIND BETWEEN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING TROUGH
SHOULD ALLOW FALLING TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN CLIMB TOWARD
SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
CENTRAL AND EAST. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE 40 NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WEST.

TUESDAY...THE VIGOROUS NRN MANITOBA SHRTWV TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INTO THE NRN LAKES BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH
THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 250-300 MB JET. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE
200-400 J/KG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT
SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE CNTRL
AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES... TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES INTO THE
25-35 PCT RANGE WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEDNESDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS PRECIP WILL
STALL OVER LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...UPSLOPE FLOW
WITH N TO NNW WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY COMPARED TO TODAY. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
INLAND...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC LOW ACROSS LOWER MI TO NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND A LAKE-INDUCED MESO-HIGH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL RESULT IN N TO NNW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CENTRAL AND
EAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WAA PRECIP
ACROSS THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD AS AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMS ACROSS THE
CONUS. WITH THE RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES...WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE TRENDED
UP WITH TEMPS FOR FRI GIVEN IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS AND H8 TEMPS
AROUND 15C FOR THE WEST. SHOULD SEE A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR
WEST HALF CRACK THE 80F MARK...WHILE TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE LOWER
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS FASTER TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
FRONT NOW CLEARING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH A RESIDUAL EML FROM FRIDAY SUPPORT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. SAT WILL BRING
COOLER CONDITIONS...BUT THE CHANGE WONT BE AS DRASTIC AS WILL BE THE
CASE BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS THEN MODERATE
MONDAY AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITION BELOW
VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO
20 KNOTS. AS RIDGE SAGS SE TONIGHT...WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME
N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH WINDS TO
LESS THAN 20KT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS


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