751
FXUS61 KAKQ 262340
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
740 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge remains across the Eastern CONUS, bringing very hot
conditions to the region through the week. Low-end chances for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms make a return through the
weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

- Heat Advisories in effect for the entire forecast area today.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop today, with more
  coverage than previous days. A few storms could be strong to
  severe.

Afternoon sfc analysis indicates a large area of high pressure over
much of the SE CONUS still centered SW of the local area. A backdoor
front located over the northern Mid Atlantic is sagging south toward
the area. The UL ridge that has been in place for several days
continues to slowly weaken. Temps as of latest obs are in the low to
mid 90s. Heat indices are generally in the 103-107 range and the
Heat Advisory across the area will continue until 7pm tonight. Lows
tonight will be in the low-mid 70s.

Regarding convection for this afternoon into this evening, we are
looking at a pretty similar set up to yesterday. Already seeing a
few storms pop up on radar and there`s a fairly robust cu field
across much of the area on satellite. Once again, there is no
shortage of instability with SBCAPE between 3000-4000 J/kg on
mesoanalysis (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE). There`s not really any shear
to speak of and weak flow aloft, which may serve to limit storm
strength. However, DCAPE is sitting at 1000-1500 J/kg, so any
stronger storms that do develop will have the potential for damaging
wind gusts. The SPC did add a slight risk for areas NW of Richmond
with the mid-day update. Elsewhere, a marginal risk remains in
place. With plenty of moisture and storms motions slower than a
snail, heavy rain could lead to isolated instances of flooding
(Marginal ERO from WPC). Isolated storms this afternoon likely
increase in coverage across the N/NW this evening (40-50% PoPs).
Precip mostly tapers off after midnight, but could see some
lingering showers across the far N into tomorrow morning as the
front drops into the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Friday afternoon.
  A few storms could be strong to severe.

- Heat Advisory issued for SE portions of the area for Friday. A Backdoor
  cold front to bring some relief from the heat to the NE
  counties and MD Eastern Shore counties.

The backdoor front drops into the area Friday morning and stalls out
somewhere in the vicinity of I-64 before lifting out again Friday
night. This will bring a temporary relief from the intense heat to
the MD Eastern Shore and perhaps the Northern Neck where highs will
be in the 80s. Low cloud cover and potentially some fog are expected
north of the front as well, at least in the morning. South of the
front, highs will yet again be in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices
will be over 100 for much of the area with an area of 105-107 from
Richmond down to Elizabeth City. Did go ahead and issue a Heat
Advisory for that area: generally S of I-64 and E of I-95 give or
take a few counties. Cannot rule out an expansion of the advisory
before tomorrow as confidence increases in placement of the front.
Scattered thunderstorms are also expected with the marginal severe
risk and flood threat continuing. Damaging wind gusts would once
again be the main threat. Highest coverage looks to be in the
W/NW in the evening. By Saturday, the front will start to lift
back to the north, so while afternoon/evening thunderstorms are
still possible, they will not be as high in coverage as Friday.
With the upper ridge still across the region, above normal
temperatures are expected again on Saturday with highs in the
lower to mid 90s. Heat indices will range between 97-104F,
though some areas could see a brief period of 105F+ heat
indices.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Hot weather continues into early next week.

- An unsettled pattern develops with daily, diurnal chances for
  scattered storms.

The weakened upper ridge will remain across the area Sunday into
early next week, leading to the continuation of above normal
temperatures. While temperatures will not be quite as high as what
we saw this past week, highs will still reach the low to mid 90s
Sunday through Tuesday, with heat indices between 98-103F. We will
continue to monitor any trends in the heat, as subtle differences in
the temperatures and dew points could lead to some areas reaching
Heat Advisory criteria. A cold front will approach the region
on Tuesday, with moisture pooling ahead of it and PWs
approaching 2.0"+ later this weekend into early next week which
may result in a heavy rain threat. The unsettled weather pattern
will continue, with isolated to scattered convection each
afternoon and evening Sunday through Tuesday. The aforementioned
front is set to move through Tuesday into Wednesday, though it
looks like it might linger across NE NC through Thursday,
bringing higher rain chances to the southern half of the
forecast area on Wednesday and Thursday. Wed (behind the front)
could potentially be our first day in a while with widespread
highs <90F with current forecast highs in the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Thursday...

Isolated to scattered storms are ongoing west of the main
terminals early this evening and are expected to dissipate
over the next hour or two. Additional showers and storms are
possible across the northern third of the area later this
evening into the overnight as a back door front drops from NE to
SW before stalling. These storms would most likely impact SBY
but hi-res guidance keeps the storms SW of the terminal (over
the Northern Neck and Chesapeake Bay) so will not mention in the
forecast for now. Low stratus and possibly reduced VSBYs are
likely behind the front so have SBY in IFR/LIFR conditions
through the night and into the daylight hours of Friday as well.
IFR CIgs may spread as far SW as RIC around sunrise but
confidence is low so will show a period of low-end MVFR with
this TAF. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail through the period
but afternoon convection will again be possible on Friday,
especially near where the front stalls. Have included PROB30
groups at RIC and PHF where confidence is highest but ORF could
also see some storms in the afternoon/evening. Winds are mostly
light and variable tonight, becoming SE 5-10 kt by the
afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions are primarily expected into next week
as the front lifts back north. However, late afternoon/evening
storms are possible every day into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue through the remainder of the
week and into the weekend.

Favorable marine conditions will continue through the weekend as
high pressure remains dominant across the region. The wind direction
will be influenced by the sea breeze during the day as the land
heats up, then will become generally variable overnight. As the high
shifts offshore through the end of the week and into the weekend,
the synoptic winds become predominantly southerly areawide. Sea
breezes may still make an appearance near the shore in the afternoon
hours, which would shift the wind to the E or SE. A few wind gusts
to 20-25 kt are possible by the weekend or early next week, but
predictability is low at this range given the effects of potential
convection. Isolated to scattered storms are also possible in the
afternoons and evenings today through the weekend, which could bring
strong wind gusts to the waters, with winds and seas higher within
any convection.

Seas in the Ocean remain around 2 ft for the week, increasing to 2-3
ft by Friday. Waves in the Bay and rivers of 1-2 ft or less
through the period.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for NCZ014>017-031-
     032-102.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for VAZ080>083-
     088>090-092-093-095>098-512>516-523>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/RMM
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC/NB
LONG TERM...AC/NB
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...ESS