Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 251357
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
957 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep dry weather in place for Monday
and the first part of Tuesday, with breezy winds along the coast.
Unsettled weather with more rainfall returns by mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 955 AM EDT Monday...

High pressure builds into the region today with mostly sunny
skies expected. Am noting some lower stratocumulus stream off
the ocean and Chesapeake Bay, mainly affecting coastal NE NC and
portions of Hampton Roads. This is not captured well by the
guidance but feel these clouds may persist through most of
today. Highs will be in the mid-upper 50s along the coast
(given the continuing gusty onshore wind). Further inland,
bumped up highs a degree or two into the 60-62 range (close to
the NBM 75th/90th percentile) given full sunshine and building
850 mb temps. Patchy high clouds will move in later across the
W. Additional low clouds are likely to develop tonight over the
ocean and move onshore. Lows look to be in the low-mid 30s
inland and in the upper 30s-low 40s for coastal localities.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

A low pressure system will move from the central Plains to the Great
Lakes region on Tuesday, pushing an associated cold front eastward
towards our area. Moisture will be a bit hard-pressed at first due
to the main system being so far north of our area. Currently looks
like the rain will hold off until the day on Wednesday as that front
gradually moves closer. Since it won`t be in an hurry to pass
through as it weakens and almost stalls out, rain chances will stick
around into Wednesday night. Rain could become heavier Wednesday
night, particularly across south/southeastern areas as a disturbance
forms and moves along the weak boundary out of NC and across our
coastal region. High temperatures on Tuesday will be around 60
degrees inland, with slightly warmer temps expected on Wednesday,
especially across northeast NC where mid to upper 60s will be
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

The aforementioned developing surface low will move across the
region and off the coast on Thursday. This will produce a swath of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall along and east of I-85/95. It
should be noted that models continue to show differences in both the
track of the low and subsequently the rainfall totals. GFS shows
upwards of 1.5-3 inches of rain east of I-85/south of US-460 for
Wednesday and Thursday, while the ECMWF has the low move offshore
much further south, only giving us 0.5-1.5 inches of rain (with the
higher amounts across the far southeast). Currently, kept the QPF
forecast in the middle with the higher amounts across the south.
There may be a shift eastward in the higher rainfall totals in
following forecast packages. WPC has a marginal risk of Excessive
Rainfall for the area Wed and Thurs since any higher rainfall totals
may lead to hydrological issues. Temperatures will be a bit cooler
on Thursday with highs holding in the mid 50s.

The low moves offshore Thursday night into Friday morning with high
pressure building in behind it from the southwest. Northwest winds
may be a bit breezy on Friday as the pressure gradient remains
tightened around the backside of the trough. For the remainder of
the weekend, we remain in zonal-to-slightly-northwesterly flow aloft
across the Mid-Atlantic. This will allow disturbances to pass
through bringing periods of clouds and potential showers. Could see
a slight chance of showers briefly both Saturday and Sunday as this
occurs. Temperatures will warm this weekend, with highs reaching 70
degrees on Saturday and potentially the lower 70s on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 625 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions are expected to persist through most of the TAF
period as high pressure remains across the region. Northeasterly
winds will remain gusty along the coast through the period, with
ORF/ECG seeing gusts to 25kt and SBY/PHF around 20kt. Mostly SKC to
FEW250 skies are forecast for most of the day. Towards the end of
this TAF period, likely after 04-06Z, lower CIGs will start to move
in from the east/coast and affect the TAF sites. Kept CIGs within
VFR thresholds for now until we get closer and gain more confidence.

Outlook: Additional cloud cover will begin to move in from the west
later Tuesday. Rain chances will return on Wednesday and persist
into Thursday. Flight restrictions may be possible at times due to
steady rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- NE winds remain elevated through tonight.

- A prolonged period of elevated seas continues through the week.

- Confidence has increased in a period of elevated N/NW winds
Thursday through Friday behind a coastal low.

High pressure over Quebec slides offshore tonight with winds
gradually diminishing. However, the pressure gradient between that
high and an area of low pressure offshore will allow seas to remain
elevated across the local waters through the middle of the week. NE
winds of 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt (highest across the coastal
waters) continue into this evening before diminishing to 10-20 kt
tonight. However, waves of 2-3 ft across the upper bay and 4-6 ft
across the lower bay continue into tonight. Waves of 4-6 ft (due to
swell from the offshore waters) may continue into Tue night.
Meanwhile, seas of 7-12 ft remain elevated through Tue before
subsiding to 4-6 ft Wed. As such, SCAs remain in effect for a
combination of winds and waves/seas until later this morning for the
middle and upper bay, 1 AM Tue for the Lower James, 4 AM Tue for the
Currituck Sound, 7 AM Tue for the lower bay, 4 AM Wed for the mouth
of the bay (due to aforementioned swell-driven waves), and 6 AM Wed
for the coastal waters. Will note that the SCAs for the coastal
waters will likely need to be extended temporally.

Winds then remain generally NE but below SCA criteria into early
Thu. Another coastal low develops along the Carolina coastline
Wednesday night before tracking northeast off the coast into early
Friday morning. This will allow for increasing winds and building
seas through late week with NNW winds building to 20-30 kt with
gusts potentially to 35 kt (35-40 kt across offshore portions of the
coastal waters). The strongest winds look to be Thu night into Fri.
Will continue to monitor for the potential of high-end SCA or Gale
conditions. Winds gradually diminish by Sat. Given the strong winds,
waves and seas build to 4-5 ft and 5-8 ft respectively during this
timeframe. Given the arrival of stronger winds/seas right after the
current period of very elevated seas subsides, it is possible that
SCA criteria seas for the coastal waters end up continuing from now
until Fri night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 625 AM EDT Monday...

Tidal anomalies continue to rise across the middle and upper
bay while remaining steady across the lower bay. That being
said, tidal anomalies are still expected to continue to rise
into Tue evening/night before dropping. As such, the forecast
remains largely the same with widespread minor flooding expected
for the next 3 high tide cycles (excluding the upcoming morning
high tide) from this evening/tonight through Tue evening/night.
Therefore, Coastal Flood Advisories have been expanded to
include all coastal location along the Ches Bay and Atlantic
Ocean. Given the three consecutive high tides reaching minor
flood stage, have kept Advisories out for the entire duration as
opposed to taking them down after each high tide and reissuing
for the next high tide. Additionally, there is potential for
the western side of the Eastern Shore and the Northern Neck to
reach moderate flood stage during the Tue night high tide. For
these locations, have issued a Coastal Flood Watch to account
for this potential. Can`t rule out Bishops Head reaching
moderate during the Tue afternoon high tide but confidence was
too low to drag the watch back. In a similar fashion, Oyster may
approach moderate flood stage this evening but confidence was
too low to upgrade to a Coastal Flood Warning. Finally, with
nearshore waves of 7-11 ft (highest along the NC coastline),
have maintained High Surf Advisories along the coast into Tue
evening/night.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT
     Tuesday for MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
     morning for MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT
     Tuesday for MDZ024-025.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ025.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for
     NCZ102.
     High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT
     Tuesday for VAZ075-077-078-085.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
     morning for VAZ075-077-078-085.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ099-100.
     High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Wednesday for VAZ082-084-086-089-090-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ093-
     095>098.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Tuesday for VAZ099.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through late Tuesday
     night for VAZ099-100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JKP
NEAR TERM...JKP/SW
SHORT TERM...JKP
LONG TERM...JKP
AVIATION...JKP
MARINE...RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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