Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 251732
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
132 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and seasonable conditions continue into this afternoon
under high pressure. Mild and partly sunny weather continues
into the day on Tuesday. The next chance for some light rain
arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday with a weak frontal
boundary pushing through. At this time the forecast is looking
mainly dry and cool to round out the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
930 AM Update...

Clear skies and cool temperatures remain across the region this
morning. Will remain clear through the day with temps rising
into the mid 40s to low 50s. The forecast remains on track.

650 AM Update

No significant changes to the near term at this time. Skies are
clear areawide as expected. Temperatures were massaged with the
latest observations in mind, as it did not get quite as cold
over a widespread area as was expected. Rest of the forecast
remains nicely on track.

355 AM Update

Generally quiet weather is expected to prevail through this
forecast period. Starting off cold and clear this morning. It
will remain mostly sunny through the day across the entire
region, with just some scattered high clouds from time to time.
It warms up to seasonable levels this afternoon, with highs in
the mid-40s to mid-50s expected.

Overall still looking clear to mostly clear for tonight, as an
inverted surface ridge remains anchored over the region. The
pressure gradient does increase as large low pressure system
spins over the upper Midwest. Therefore, southeast winds looks
to become breezy overnight, increasing to 5 to 15 mph, with a
few higher gusts up over the Finger Lakes region. Temperatures
will still likely fall quickly in the evening, especially across
the Catskills and other sheltered valleys where it may decouple
initially. Overall, it`s still slightly colder than average,
with lows in the 20s to lower 30s forecast.

Our area will still be in between the large low over the Great
Lakes and an Atlantic coastal low on Tuesday. As the low level
east-southeast flow continues, it may try to transport some
Atlantic moisture into the area. This would take the form of a
marine layer of lower stratus clouds. Uncertainty remains on how
far north/west these marine layer clouds may spread. With the
stronger late March sun this marine layer may be halted over the
Poconos, or it could pull back to the east midday/afternoon.
Eventually clouds do increase as the next weakening frontal
system approaches late in the day. This could bring some light
rain showers toward sunset over the far western zones. Tuesday
remains warm, with highs in the 50s areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
340 AM Update:

Tuesday night, a low pressure system will move from the Lake
Superior area into Ontario, Canada. Meanwhile, the associated
warm front will push through our region which will provide
enough lift for scattered rain showers to develop from west to
east. Temperatures will be warm enough for precipitation to be
entirely rain, except for perhaps a few wet snowflakes mixing in
for far northern Oneida County and the highest peaks of the
Catskills. Temperatures will be mild with lows only in the upper
30s to mid 40s.

A relative lull in the rain shower activity should occur
Wednesday morning in a partial dry slot, but by the afternoon,
the associated cold front will push through the region allowing
for a resurgence of rain shower activity. Temperatures will be
above normal with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. If some
sunshine manages to break through the clouds ahead of the cold
front, temperatures may rise well into the 60s for much of the
area.

Showers will taper off from west to east Wednesday night as the
cold front clears the area. Showers will linger longer across
areas east of I-81, particularly across the Poconos-Catskills as
the front slows down east of the area and additional moisture
starts to surge up the coast with a possible developing coastal
wave of low pressure across the Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures will
remain mild with lows only in the 40s east of I-81, with mid to
upper 30s west of I-81 (behind the cold front).

The aforementioned surge of moisture along the coast will bring
an additional chance for showers east of I-81 on Thursday,
especially for the Poconos-Catskills. Steadiest rain should
remain east of the area closer to the coast, but this could of
course change as it gets closer. There will likely be a sharp
gradient between areas that see rain to the east and no rain to
the west. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal with
highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Rain showers east of I-81 finally come to an end by late
Thursday night and gradual clearing is expected as high pressure
approaches the area. Lows are expected to be in the upper 20s to
lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
340 AM Update:

The long term period will feature seasonable weather as March
comes to a close. High pressure will largely be in control, but
weak shortwaves moving through associated with a west-
northwesterly upper level flow may bring a few showers over the
weekend (rain showers during the day, rain/snow showers at
night). That being said, none of the days Friday through Sunday
appear to be a washout and in fact, the majority of the time
should remain dry with partly sunny/partly cloudy skies. High
temperatures will generally be in the 40s to lower 50s, with
overnight lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected across all terminals
through the overnight hours. A marine layer moving into the
region from the SE will bring Fuel Alt ceilings to AVP and BGM
after 13z, with MVFR ceilings at ITH. There are some signals for
MVFR at ELM, but confidence in the marine layer making it the
far west is too low to include it in the TAFs.


Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions
possible in rain showers, especially during the day on
Wednesday.

Thursday & Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...JTC


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