116
FXUS62 KCAE 151702
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
102 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again this afternoon,
with isolated strong to severe storms. Upper ridging will
provide a brief break in the unsettled conditions on Thursday.
Shower and thunderstorms chances increase again Friday and
especially on Saturday with unsettled weather lingering into
early next week. Ridging builds in during the middle of next
week resulting in decreasing rain chances and a gradual increase
in temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low clouds have cleared or lifted quickly across the forecast
area as daytime heating has begun. Temps have been raised over
the next several hours as we were running a bit low and I expect
mid to upper 80s for the majority of those along and south of
I-20 this afternoon. The real weather maker is expected to push
into the region over the next several hours. A robust shortwave,
noted in satellite imagery, continues to push southeastward
from southern TN this morning. Ahead of this, warm and moist
low-levels are expected to help yield moderate instability
(~1000-1500 j/kg of CAPE) across much of the area, especially
as mid-level temps cool on the approach of the shortwave. Shear
looks relatively weak, but sufficient for organized multi-cell
clusters this afternoon. Guidance has been a bit slow to
initiate convection with recent events, and this event looks no
different. Raised PoPs beginning at 18z because the shortwave is
going to approach the area around this time, with convection
increasing in coverage thereafter. As it pertains to severe
weather, instability will be more than sufficient and shear will
be merely sufficient. Looking at DESI mean soundings, westerly
storm relative shear favors hailers, but mid-level moisture
looks to increase in coincidence with improving forcing through
the afternoon. But low-level look to dry a bit, which would help
as well and should help promote near severe downdrafts. So
overall, the slight risk for the northern and northeastern FA is
reasonable, with strong to marginally severe storms (max
threats of 0.75"-1.25" hail, 55-65 mph wind gusts) possible
through the afternoon hours.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Tonight, any lingering convection should
wane and shift to the Coastal Plain by midnight with drier air
and high pressure building into the area behind a weak cold
front. Clearing skies overnight should favor radiational cooling
and expect overnight lows slightly cooler than tonight with
lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday and Thursday Night: Drier weather will return back into
the area as an upper ridge builds in from the west. Should see
much more sunshine through the day as a west-northwesterly wind
pattern brings some downsloping across the cwa. This should also
have the affect of bringing temperatures back into the low to
mid 80s for afternoon highs. Overnight lows will be mild in the
low to mid 60s.

Friday and Friday Night: The upper ridge begins to move east
through the day in response to an upper level low moving out of
the Southern Plains. Moisture will once again be on the
increase, so even though the day will start off dry, the region
should see the development of isolated to scattered showers or
thunderstorms during the afternoon. Better rainfall chances
should occur Friday night as the deeper trough moves towards the
region. Temperatures for the afternoon will reach the low to mid
80s. With the expected increase in clouds, overnight lows in
the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some uncertainty exists Saturday due to timing differences with
the models. Even if there are some timing issues, at some point
Saturday there should be numerous showers and/or thunderstorms
across the entire cwa. NBM shows likely to categorical pops for
much of the day, and will not really stray much from those
numbers. Sunday will see the upper low eventually moving through
and east of the cwa, and should see some shower activity early
in the day before some drying becomes possible during the
afternoon and evening. Behind the low, drier air returns and
will bring dry conditions then from Sunday night through
Wednesday. Temperatures next week rise back above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected through the forecast period
outside of some early morning fog/stratus.

Overnight convection has dissipated and fog and stratus has also
dissipated or shifted away from the terminals. However,
satellite imagery showing some stratus moving northward through
GA which may impact AGS/DNL so included a tempo group through
15z and also at OGB where some stratus is still lingering
nearby. Light southerly winds pick up to around 10 knots by 15z
from the southwest with gusts to 20 knots through the
afternoon. Isolated afternoon convection possible as the upper
trough moves through the region but coverage not high enough to
include in this forecast.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms and
associated restrictions are possible again Friday and Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$