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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251540
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
840 AM MST Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Look for cooler and unsettled conditions for the
second half of the week as a pair of weather disturbances move
across Arizona. Chances for showers arrive today and again by
late Friday and into Saturday. Fair weather is expected to return
on Sunday through early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Showers and thunderstorms have moved into Yavapai County
this morning, with Prescott Airport picking up around 0.20" so
far. This area of showers and storms is pushing toward the north-
northeast and has reached I-40 from Williams westward as of 830
AM. Showers and storms are likely later this morning and afternoon
over much of Coconino County including Flagstaff and the Grand
Canyon, with a 30-40% chance farther east across northern Navajo &
Apache counties. Heavier storms will produce small hail and
frequent lightning. Minor updates to raise precip chances today
were sent a short time ago.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /342 AM MST/...The first low pressure system will
arrive today. There will be decent dynamic lift with this first
low with just enough moisture for saturation and good chance for
showers. The main show will be later this morning through the
afternoon focusing from the western Mogollon Rim northeastward to
the Four Corners. The air mass will be unstable so there will be
thunderstorms around the area, especially this afternoon with
daytime heating. Liquid precipitation amounts generally 0.15
inches or less. The low will be of the more mild spring variety so
the snow level will remain mainly above 8000 feet with only an
inch or two of accumulation over the very highest mountain peaks.
Most locations will see gusty winds from the south to southwest at
10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph. However, from about Heber
eastward, where the surface pressure gradient will be stronger,
afternoon gusts in excess of 45 mph are likely at times. the
Associated with the passing low daytime temperatures will be
cooler.

Overnight...The first low will exit the state. Showers will linger
over east and northeast portions into the evening before the main
dynamics for lift moves into New Mexico.

Friday and Saturday...The next low approaches then moves across
the area. Much of the day Friday will see windy, cool and partly
cloudy weather as the next low approaches. Late in the afternoon
the first chance of showers will enter northwest Arizona with
arrival of the next round of upward lift then spread across the
area Friday night. Moisture will be more plentiful with the second
low so precipitation is expected to be more widespread. Look for
a showery day on Saturday with a good chance of hearing some
thunder as the air mass will once again be unstable, especially as
daytime heating progresses. Another round of gusty southwest to
west winds at 10 to 20 mph gusting to around 40 mph in spots.
The snow level could dip as low as 7000 feet but once again any
snow accumulation will be reserved for the highest mountain peaks.

From Sunday onward...A mild and dry west to northwest flow
returns. Mainly clear skies and warmer daytime temperatures appear
nearly certain with the usual round of gusty afternoon southwest
winds each day.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 25/12Z through Friday 26/12Z...MVFR cigs and
vis possible in SHRA/TSRA, 15Z-03Z. SW winds 10-20 kts, gusting
20-30 kts before 03Z, then subsiding to 5-15 kts overnight.

OUTLOOK...Friday 26/12Z through Sunday 28/12Z...VFR conditions
before 12Z Friday, then MVFR conditions possible in SHRA/TSRA
liekly through 00Z Sunday. Brief periods of IFR possible in SN/RA
mix for sites above 6500-7000 feet MSL. VFR conditions returning
thereafter. Winds SW 15-25 kts on Friday, becoming W 10-20 kts on
Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Turning cooler. Isolated light
showers and thunderstorms develop late this morning and continue
through the day. More widespread activity then sets in late Friday
afternoon and evening. Southwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts 25-35
mph for today, increasing to 20-30 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on
Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Scattered showers, with high-elevation
snow at times, and thunderstorms for Saturday, along with westerly
winds 15-25 mph. Warmer, drier conditions return Sunday and Monday,
with west winds 10-20 mph on Sunday and shifting to the southwest on
Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ013-
014.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/McCollum
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff